outlook for the us economy in the coming year steven kyle cornell university december 10, 2013

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Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

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Page 1: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year

Steven KyleCornell University

December 10, 2013

Page 2: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Real GDP Growth Since 2000

Page 3: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Unemployment Since 2000

Page 4: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Inflation Since 2000

Page 5: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Fed Funds Rate

Page 6: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Yield on 10 Year Treasury

Page 7: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Total Federal Expenditures as a Percent of GDP

Page 8: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

State and Local Spending as a Percent of GDP

Page 9: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013
Page 10: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013
Page 11: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013
Page 12: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Employment to Population Ratio

Page 13: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Industrial Production

Page 14: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Industrial Capacity Utilization

Page 15: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Retail Sales

Page 16: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Household Debt Service as Percent of Income

Page 17: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Aggressive Monetary Policy and Low Inflation

Page 19: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013
Page 20: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

CBO Estimate of Debt/GDP

Page 21: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013
Page 22: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

A New Stock Bubble ??

Page 23: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013
Page 24: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

State Government Employment

Page 26: Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013

Job Openings in Education & Health – Clearly Rebounding