outlook for fossil fuel
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
1/19
Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
The Outlook for Domestic FossilFuel Prices and Availability
2007 AIChE-ACS Management ConferenceManaging CPI Energy and Raw Materials
Uncertainties in a Global Context
April 25, 2007
Houston, Texas
A. Michael SchaalDirector, Oil and Gas Division
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
2/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Energy Issues To Consider
Trends in Energy Demand
The Role of Nuclear and Coal in Generation
The Contribution of Ethanol
What of Coal-To-Liquids and Other Alternative Fuels?
What of LNG and Other Natural Gas Sources?
What Does This Mean For Prices?
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
3/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionsHistory
Reference case$59
Low Price$35
High Price$100
World Oil Prices* in Three Cases(2005 dollars per barrel)
* Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices
History Projections
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
4/192007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
World Oil Prices* in Three Cases(Nominal dollars per barrel)
0
40
80
120
160
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
History Projections
Reference case$95
Low Price$58
High Price$157
* Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
5/192007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030(quadrillion Btu)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
6/192007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
60% Net imports
Consumption
Production
History Projections
Liquid Fuels Production, Consumption, and Imports
(million barrels per day)
61%
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
7/192007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Domestic Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030(million barrels per day)
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Lower 48 Onshore
Total
Deep Water Offshore
ProjectionsHistory
Shallow Water Offshore
Alaska
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
8/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Ethanol Consumption as E85 and Blended withMotor Gasoline, 1981-2030 (billion gallons)
0
5
10
15
20
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionsHistory
Ethanol Blended into Motor Gasoline
Ethanol in E85
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
9/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Ethanol Supply by Source, 2003-2030 (billion gallons)
0
4
8
12
16
20
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028
ProjectionsHistory
Corn Based
RFS
Imports
Cellulose Based
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
10/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Non-conventional Petroleum LiquidsCapital Investment Costs
(2005 thousand dollars per daily barrel of capacity)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Oil RefineryBiodiesel
Ethanol (Corn)
Gas-To-LiquidsCoal-To-Liquids
Biomass-To-Liquids
Extra-Heavy OilOil Sands
Shale Oil
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
11/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids, and Oil ShaleProduction in the Price Cases,
1990-2030 (million barrels per day)
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Coal to Liquids/Reference
Coal to Liquids/High price
Gas to Liquids/High price
History Projections
Oil Shale/High price
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
12/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,1980-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
16%
21%Net importsConsumption
Production
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030(trillion cubic feet)
3.0
0.60.9
4.5
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas
2005
2030
20.6 Tcf
26.1 Tcf
History Projections
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
13/19
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Transportation
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Electric Power
ProjectionsHistory
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
14/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Electricity Capacity Additions by Year
Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 203
Coal Oil and Gas Nuclear
Hydro Other
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
15/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Alaska
Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional
Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore
Lower 48Associated-Dissolved
Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore
ProjectionsHistory
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
16/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas Resources asof January 1, 2005 (trillion cubic feet)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Undiscovered nonassociated
Inferred nonassociated
Unconventional
Other unproved
Proved
Offshore
Coalbed methane
Shale gasTight gas
AlaskaLower 48 associated-dissolved
Onshore
Offshore
Onshore
283
478
226
162
193
50176
119 164
74126278
31131
Total: 1,342 trillion cubic feet
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
17/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases,1980-2030 (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
History Projections
High Price
$7.63
Low Price
$5.06
Reference Case
$5.98
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
18/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases,1980-2030 (nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
History Projections
High Price$11.99
Low Price$8.42
Reference Case
$9.62
-
7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel
19/19
2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference
A. Michael Schaal
Energy Information Administration
Annual Energy Outlook 2007, February8, 2007
International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006
AEO2007Assumptions, April 2007
www.eia.doe.gov