Ideas on the PROCESS of Transition

to Sustainable Patterns of Living

NZPI PIA Conference Christchurch April 2010

Peter Walsh FPIAPeter Walsh FPIA

Walsh Consulting, Sydney

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation The Planning Dilemma The Planning Dilemma

a Thumbnail sketch from a journeyman planner

Wi k d Ti Wicked Times Are solutions just an impossible dream?

Planning Response A Conceptual Framework

Creating Spaces for positive change “Transition Management” theory and practice

Some Examples including reflections on planners role

Planning Everywhere on the Mainstream AgendaMainstream Agenda

Typically characterised by Shock/horror (for short attention span)( )

Blame game

Bureaucracy-bashingBureaucracy bashing

“Wicked” ProblemsWicked Problems

Not so easy as Shock Jocks Might Think

Example Urban containment goal Urban containment goal

How to accommodate huge unmet housing demanddemand ○ Australia-wide shortage 430,000dw by 2028 under

medium projectionsmedium projections

Numerous others

“Wicked” ProblemsWicked Problems Urban containment just one example Urban containment just one example

Wicked problems Wicked problems Ambiguous or hard to define problem definition

Multi dimension inter related causal factors involving multiple agency Multi-dimension inter-related causal factors, involving multiple agency and public/private sector responses

Wide disagreement on best ways forwardWide disagreement on best ways forward

Social complexity (rather than technical complexity), and the associated coordination requirements, overwhelms normal problem solving

happroaches

Solutions usually involve changing the behaviour of individual citizens, who are inclined to put their own interests above that of the widerwho are inclined to put their own interests above that of the wider community.

Ob it id i d fl h lth• Obesity epidemic and flow-on health effects

“compact” but “liveable” city

Existing public transport inadequate

New impossible to fund

Traffic gridlock Traffic gridlock

Huge issue for how we plan for land use

Source: uk times 1/4/10

Energy efficient housing

Source: the Economist cover

Is there a real problem?Taking into account a wide view

Wicked Problems often harm the mostWicked Problems – often harm the most vulnerable first.

Useful as a construct– these are super complex problems

And It seems time is running out

Is there a real problem? View from Suburbia

Not much of a one in the public eye in the middle suburbs of our cities?middle suburbs of our cities?

SE A i d th ti t l bl t li tSE Asia and other poor nations most vulnerable to climate change

Crop yields could drop up to 30% in SE Asia b idby mid 21C

Source: WorldBank.org

Sea-level rise will exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards.

Mortality due to diarrhea primarily associated with flood and droughts will rise in South Asia

Source: WorldBank.org

Is there a problemIs there a problem

IPCC Most of the observed increase in temperatures is

“very likely” (>90% confidence) due to human sourced GHG emissions.

Thi i f j lik l ” ( 66%) i h TAR This is up from just likely” (>66%) with TAR.

How do our nations fit into this.

League Table CO2League Table CO2tonnes/person/yr

(1) Australia 20 6(1) Australia 20.6

(2) USA 19.8

(3) Canada 18.8

(42) China 4 5(42) China 4.5

India 1.2

Source: Maplecroft - http://maplecroft.com

Motorised Transport Share –pPassenger KilometresTransport 13.2% of our GHG Emissionsp

Source: BTRE 2008 and SoAC Report

Problems and ScepticismProblems and ScepticismGeneral Peter Cosgrove (Boyer Lectures 2009):

To me the science on either side of the debate resembles the sort of military intelligence I have been considering over the long decades of my military service: fact-based but leading from there with a series of assumptions to a future scenario …

We are left with a preponderance of scientific opinion pointing to dire outcomes and presently a minority who might be called 'climate change sceptics‘…

I am very uneasy about dicing with their future. I am very conscious of the huge change in direction and the expense and the turmoil and the impact on jobs, entailed in a radical move to non-carbon energy for Australia.

But if we don't do it, a country with our values, a country presently in the top 20 wealthiest countries in the world, a country depended on by millions of people who are our powerless friends and neighbours, how can we expect other nations to act and thus offset our lack of actionand thus offset our lack of action.

So let's not muck about any more, let's start now to solve the problems that we own.

2009 Boyer Lectures Lecture 6: Australia's Future: Paying it Forward http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/stories/2009/2725189.htm#transcript

Thinking About Ways ForwardThinking About Ways Forward

3 Horizons Thinking 3-Horizons Thinking (Newton, 2008)

Source: Newton, 2009.

Source: Newton, 2009.

“Transition Management” Concept

Concerned with the actually delivery process Wide Northern European interest Wide Northern European interest Dutch Research Institute for Transition et al Evidence on how transformational change occurred

historically and what can you bring forward fromhistorically and what can you bring forward from public policy science

We work in a very complex chaotic hard to control system

Cant rely on government to implement changey g p g Need “space” for progressive minded people to

work on solutions

Complex SystemsComplex Systems S i t l d i id d Societal dynamics are considered as

chaotic, complex and now are impossible to manage in the traditional sense ofto manage in the traditional sense of command and control

Individuals might reflect on systemic problems but are limited for knowledge in achieving transformational innovationsachieving transformational innovations

Societal change does occur based on Societal change does occur based on interaction between actors at all levels within the changing landscape.

“Transition Management” Transition Management Concept

“Transition Arena” (Loorbach, 2007)

Complex systems approach

Create Space for “joint problem perception and p p pstructuring”

Transition Vision and Shared Guiding Principles

Use the “Diffusion of Power” - as an Advantage

To date “shock/horror”, NIMBY attitudes seem to rule Scandel avoidance capitalise on short term media interest

P i f lk d l ( t t d) Progressive folk need equal (protected) space to deepen and exchange knowledge and plan some actionsand plan some actions Murray Darling Basin Authority comparisons?

“Transition Arena” (Loorbach, 2007)

Complex systems approach

Create Space for “joint problem perception and structuring”g

Transition Vision and Shared Guiding PrinciplesGuiding Principles

Agendas and Pathways CreatedCreated

Expansion of Network and C

Approach already operational in Europe on health, energy,

Wider Communication

Experiments and Actions

social housing, accessibility issues

Experiments and Actions

Learning and Monitoring

Widening Engagement – breeds reflection, tech innovation better design and behaviour change:innovation, better design and behaviour change:

rather than just blame

Some TargetsItem Problems/Themes Thought Starters/ReferencesHub and corridor redevelopment, sustainable transport, and betterment tax

Practicalities of funding stream for public transit through increased real property value at hub and corridor offsets costs of public

“Negotiating for “Planning gain” principles in UKRewarding great architecture urban designp

transitDelightful parks, pedestrain spaces

g g gSoftening of politically correct controls

Housing densification, improved transit, parking restrictions rather than

Parking congestion, inconvenience vs, safe/acti e streetscapes transport and

Comparing density that work and projects that don’t (Ultimo S dne s Arb t s Walkparking restrictions rather than

requirementssafe/active streetscapes, transport and cycling

that don’t (Ultimo, Sydney vs Arbutus Walk Vancouver)

Revising standards which prevent low cost or energy efficient buildings

Technological, regulatory and financing barriers

Involve young people, “hard to house”, those suffering mental illness “ultracost or energy efficient buildings

Helping kids live close to/in family homes

barriers.“Mansion or no house”.

those suffering mental illness. ultra compact house”, Why lifts after 3 storeys

Employment close to where people live.Attracting jobs to existing centres/teleworking

Low accessibility in the outer suburbs of many Australian cities coincides with low-incomehouseholds. Known problem in developed countries. VAMPIRE

Link to corporate social responsibility.You get people in the room who can take it in

What really matters when redeveloping existing precincts to accommodate the new

Compact cities at odds with heritage and vegetation protection controls –urban design solutions

Keating: on “heritage mafia”Murcutt: our stifling “culture of mediocrity”

Ensuring the community, rather than vocal self-interest groups, lead government strategic plans

Connecting people up with facts. Using evidence and integrated data to inform policy.

Involving young people. City Talks (eg Sydney City, Warringah, Vancouver).

How Communities of Practice:

UK IDEA etc as frontrunnersUK IDEA etc as frontrunners PIA groups change to problem/outcome orientation rather than issue

based?

/ Local/Regional Projects Space for already progressive projects to blossom and grow Projects in response to empowered self-interest groups Best practice knowledge sharing projects Media generated projects – eg SMH transport inquiry

National Level Projects National Level Projects Murray Darling Basin, already happening Major cities unit

Involve current “frontrunners”, influential progressive thinkers, educators Inspirational corporate / community leaders senior public servantsInspirational corporate / community leaders, senior public servants,

school principals, actuaries, engineers, the younger, entrepreneurs, financiers, academics

ConclusionConclusion We Planners think we’re good at listening analysis We Planners think we re good at listening, analysis,

reflection, development of cogent answers to the big problems – frankly we’ve got little else to offer

The big challenge now is climate change mitigation

Many of us think there are also many other “secondary Many of us think there are also many other secondary gains” with good climate change response.

We have had a dilemma in understanding the link We have had a dilemma in understanding the link between problem definition and response.

The response includes behaviour change The response includes behaviour change

The transition management approach presents a working methodology with logic and practicalitymethodology with logic and practicality

MIT Roulette WheelMIT Roulette Wheel

Conclusion We Planners think we’re good at listening, analysis, reflection,

development of cogent answers to the big problems – frankly we’ve got little else to offerwe ve got little else to offer

The big problem now is climate change

Many of us think there are also many other “secondary gains” with good climate change response.

We have had a dilemma in understanding the link between problem definition and response.

The response includes behaviour change – not an easy ask

The transition management approach gives us a discipline and The transition management approach gives us a discipline and some structure and rigour.

Communities of Practice – but not just transport planners, or social planner or heritage planning groups – which rarely want to be boxed in anyway and if they do then the silo problem arises – more focused on integrated problem solving.