Outline:• Motivation • Mission and Approach• Description of Current Projects

• Representative of Approach• Summary and Questions

A US National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform

Prepared by the NCPP CORE TEAMMarch 5, 2012

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Typical Practitioner

"Climate scientists have already established that the world needs to be prepared for sea level rise, more extreme environmental conditions, and more rapid environmental change. Decision makers are already factoring this into their processes. Given this:

Where can climate science add demonstrable additional value?"

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What’s Missing?“Better” climate information is rarely sufficient; this is not simply

a problem of handing off data and information. Repeated studies have shown that usable climate information follows from the generation or production of problem solving strategies by teams containing both scientists and non-scientist practitioners. (e.g. Lemos and Morehouse, 2005)

This co-generation or co-production of solution strategies is at the foundation of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform. We work at the interfaces between climate science and decision making.

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NCPP Mission and Strategy

Mission: Supports state-of-the-art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. Strategy: A participatory community enterprise where climate information users, infrastructure developers, and scientists come together in a collaborative problem solving environment.

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NCPP is an emerging Participatory Community

• Focused on the synthesis of existing climate assets spread across federal agencies, regional and local governments, universities, professional societies, nonprofits, and commercial activities

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NCPP Problem ApproachWork through pilot projects and use cases that support

– Provision of guidance and advisory narratives – Provision of quality-assessed, digital climate data– Development of IT infrastructure

Pilot projects support extension to growing capacity– Study “How is the Problem Addressed?”– Develop templates that facilitate similar problems– Evaluation of effectiveness of provided information and services

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NCPP Current Pilot Projects

PROJECTS

FUNCTIONS

RESOURCES

PilotsMissouri Basin

La Nina

Downscaling-Evaluation

-2013 Workshop

Use CasesClimate Indices

(technical framework)

Translational Information & Guidance / Infrastructure / Data Access (Templates and Tools to Facilitate Community Problem Solving)

Existing Resources / Open Source Tools / Community Activities

NCPPCoreTeam

NCPPCoreTeam

NCPPCoreTeam

NCPPCoreTeam

NCPPCoreTeam

NCPPCoreTeam

National Climate Service

NCPP and open communities

88Link to NCPP @ COG

NSF (CDI)CommodityGovernance

List of related projects

Link to NCPP-Admin @ COG

National Climate Service

Downscaling - 2013

• NCPP Goals– Evaluation Standards– Guidance Documents – Translation for users and development of metadata /

common language• Climate Science Applications Team

– K. Dixon (GFDL), K. Hayhoe (Texas Tech), R. Horton (Columbia Univ.), K. Kunkel (NCDC; NC State), X.-Z. Liang (Maryland), L. Mearns (NCAR), J. Winkler (MSU), A. Wood (NWS/CBRFC)

• Plan White Paper for Publication in Summer 2012999Link to NCPP @ COG

National Climate Service

Missouri River Basin / La Nina 2012 Extremes (NCPP Goals)

• Real-world example of regional problem– Evaluation of provided information– Engagement of network of users for use-driven problems– Translation of global to regional / seasonal to long-term

• Template for problem solving (link to design doc )• Potential capacity building regional problems

– Technique – how to provide usable information– Footprint of usable resources / Gap identification– Engagement of users in capacity building– Development of COG as aggregation center for class of

problems101010Link to NCPP @ COG

National Climate Service

Climate Indices Pilot &North Central – Climate Science Center

(NC - CSCs)

• Climate Indices for Impacts Assessment: technical project to spur development of framework for translational information and shared services: NCPP, USGS Derivatives Portal, and data collections at Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)

• NC- CSC: deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs (Department of Interior) to develop and deliver needed climate information products.

111111Link to NCPP @ COG

National Climate Service

Examples of Potential Resource Re-use

• OpenClimateGIS: geospatial web service that provides access to climate model forecasts in geospatial formats

• GLISAClimate.org: Use-driven Problem Solving Environment

1212Link to NCPP @ COG

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Summary

NCPP is focused on the synthesis of existing capabilities to build a sustained capability. Relies on last decade’s development of pieces of a potential integrated capacity: Investments in understanding user needs and use of climate information Investments in information technology infrastructureEmergence of successful approaches to govern distributed communities

StatusSet of pilot projects where we participate in the project with the goal on

understanding “how” the problem is approached – then structuring that information into new capacity and extending to new problems and communities

Developing a model of project governance to formalize multi-agency, multi-sponsored ownership of NCPP

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NCPP CORE TEAM

Program/Platform manager – Don AndersonChief Scientist: Richard Rood

Translational Information & Guidance

Integration and Design:

Joseph Barsugli Caspar Ammann

Infrastructure and Data Cecelia DeLuca

Application Pilots Community Interfaces Wayne Higgins

Administration Galia Guentchev, Allyn Treshansky, Richard Rood, Cecelia DeLuca

Galia Guentchev

Core Team

Luca CinquiniAllyn Treshansky

Doug KluckAndrea Ray

Executive Board (in progress)