SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN: JANUARY; 2008

MAKING (OR NOT MAKING) OUR WORLD DISASTER RESILIENT

IS OUR LEGACYHistory Will Decide Which Legacy We

Actually LeavePart 1

PART 1:WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?

DISASTER RESILIENCE HAS A VERY HIGH BENEFIT/COST

DISASTER RESILIENCE HAS A VERY HIGH BENEFIT/COST

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1000

THE PAYOFF IS GREATER SAFETY, SECURITY, AND QUALITY OF LIFE FOR EVRYONE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1000

THE PAYOFF IS GREATER SAFETY, SECURITY, AND QUALITY OF LIFE FOR EVRYONE

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

UNIQUE TOOLS FOR MEDITERRANEAN REGION NATIONS TO USE TO IMPROVE EDUCATION,

MITIGATION, MONITORING, AND ADAPTATION FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS

BOOK OF

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

On Science, Policy,

And EM HI-ED

And EM HI-ED

MEDITERRANEAN REGION

• MEDITERRANEAN REGION

• EUROPE• NORTH AMERICA• SOUTH AMERICA• CARIBBEAN BASIN• OCEANIA

• ASIA RUSSIA INDIA CHINA SOUTHEAST ASIA

• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• DROUGHTS• EARTHQUAKES• FLOODS• SEVERE WINDSTORMS• WILDFIRES• LANDSLIDES• VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS• TSUNAMIS

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

DROUGHTDROUGHT

WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSVOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

\LANDSLIDES\LANDSLIDES

TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS

LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKESHURRICANES/TYPHOONS

HURRICANES/TYPHOONS FLOODSFLOODS

GCC AND NATURAL HAZARDSGCC AND NATURAL HAZARDS

ATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERIC GEOLOGICGEOLOGICGEOLOGICGEOLOGIC HYDROLOGICHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC

THE DILEMNA OF DISASTER SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE

CHANGE OCCURS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL

WHERE, BROAD BRUSH STROKES ARE TOO

UNCERTAIN

THE ISSUE:

WERE THE UNUSUALLY SEVERE PHYSICAL EFFECTS NORMAL, BUT EXACERBATED BY SOME OF MAN’S

PAST ACTIONS, OR

EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?

WAS THE WINTER OF 2008 UNUSUAL?

VERY COLD IN CHINAVERY COLD IN NEW YORKSNOW IN AMMAN, JORDANVERY WARM IN SWEDENVERY WARM IN NORWAYVERY WARM IN ENGLAND

SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN: JANUARY; 2008

WARM IN TYNEMOUTH, UK: FEBRUARY 2008

NO ICE IN NORWAY: JANUARY 2008

VERY COLD IN GUANGZHOU, CHINA: JANUARY 2008

STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN: WARMEST SINCE 1755

VERY COLD IN NEW YORK: FEBRUARY 2008

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•MONITORING•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

•EDUCATION•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EM RESPONSE•RECOVERY

POLICY TOOLS FOR POLICY TOOLS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• EVENTEVENT

POLICY ASSESSMENT

• COSTCOST

• BENEFITBENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

BUILDING A CULTURE OF DISASTER BUILDING A CULTURE OF DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

GLOBAL GLOBAL CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE

NATURAL NATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS

GLOBAL GLOBAL CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE

NATURAL NATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH THE POTENTIAL ADVERSE EFFECTS OF

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

IF THE PREDICTIONS ARE RIGHT, WE WILL BE LIVING WITH THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE

CHANGE FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES

ANTICIPATE YOUR RISK

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WAS ONLY DISCUSSED IN A HYPO-THETICAL WAY FOR MANY YEARS.

• If CONSIDERED AS A THREAT, IT WAS A THREAT FOR THE DISTANT FUTURE.

• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IS INCREASINGLY BEING REGARDED AS A FACT, …

• WHICH IMPLIES SERIOUS RISKS THAT PRESENT AND FUTURE GEN-ERATIONS ALIKE WILL HAVE TO FACE.

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

• MITIGATION ADDRESSES THE “FRONT END” OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM.

• IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL PREVENT (OR REDUCE) THE RELEASE OF EXCESS CO2 EMMISIONS.

• ADAPTATION ADDRESSES THE “BACK END” OF THE PROBLEM.

• IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL SAFE-GUARD A PERSON, A COMMUNITY, A BUSINESS, OR A NATION AS THEY LIVE WITH THE LIKELY IMPACTS.

MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• ADAPTATION IS REQUIRED BECAUSE WE CAN NOT TURN OFF THE MOMENTUM OF ADVERSE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SHORT TIME.

• CARBON DIOXIDE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DECADES, AND

• OCEANS STORE HEAT FOR CENTURIES.

MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• MANY COUNTRIES ARE NOW MAKING LARGE INVESTMENTS IN MITIGATION AND ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION ACTIONS.

• LEADERS RECOGNIIZE THAT THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RISKS FOR PEOPLE, BUSINESSES, AND COMMUNITIES LIVING IN OR LOCATED IN COASTAL AREAS OR IN RIVER FLOODPLAINS.

THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• AFTER 800 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE BATTLING THE NORTH SEA, THE NETHERLANDS HAS NOW CREATED SOME OF THE STRONGEST FLOOD DEFENSES IN THE WORLD.

• PRESENT RIVER DEFENSES PROVIDE 1-IN -250 YEARS PROTECTION LEVELS.

THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING, A PART OF THE DELTA WORKS DAMS, DEFENDS AGAINST THE NORTH SEA.

• THEY ARE NOW BEING MADE STRONGER TO PROVIDE 1-IN-100,000 YEARS PROTECTION INSTEAD OF 1-IN-10,000 YEARS PROTECTION.

THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• THE DUTCH ARE ALSO REVISING TRADITIONAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT THINKING.

• IN ADDITION TO CONTAINING THE FLOOD WATERS, THEY WILL ALLOW CERTAIN DESIGNAGTED LOCATIONS TO BE FLOODED.

• THIS STRATEGY IS CALLED, “LIVING WITH WATER.”

THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING: THE NETHERLANDS

THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• THE NETHERLANDS WILL COMMIT ABOUT $1.3 BILLION ANNUALLY TO INCREASE FLOOD PROTECTION LEVELS.

• THIS INVESTMENT IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 0.2 PERCENT OF THE NETHERLAND’S GDP.

BRITAIN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• THE BRITISH ARE IMPROVING AND EXTENDING THE “THAMES BARRIER,” A SET OF FLOODGATES ACROSS THE THAMES RIVER.

• WHEN THE BARRIER IS CLOSED (ABOUT 10 TIMES A YEAR) IT PROVIDES 1-IN-2,000 YEARS PROTECTION OF LONDON FROM FLOODING CAUSED BY OCEAN SURGES DURING STORMS.

LONDON, ENGLAND

THAMES RIVER BARRIER DURING STORM

BRITAIN:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• THE PREDICTED RISE IN SEA LEVEL BY 2030 IS EXPECTED TO REQUIRE AN INCREASE IN PROTECTION ALONG THE THAMES TO 1-IN-1,000 YEARS.

• THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED AND UPGRADED BY 2100.

TOKYO: ANTICIPATES MORE WATER THAN USUAL IN THE FUTURE

JAPAN:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• JAPAN IS ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE WATER FROM RISING SEA LEVEL, OCEAN STORM SURGES, TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP, AND EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FROM TYPHOONS.

• ITS 12-YEAR-OLD “G-CANS PROJECT” HAS CREATED A MASSIVE UNDERGROUND CONCRETE “RIVER SYSTEM” IN NORTHWEST TOKYO TO FACILITATE REMOVAL OF EXCESS WATER FROM TOKYO’S STREETS.

G-CANS: THE WORLD’S LARGEST UNDERGROUND “RIVER” SYSTEM

JAPAN:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• JAPAN HAS INSTALLED UNDERGROUND PUMPS THAT CAN PUMP 100 TONS OF WATER PER SECOND OUT OF RIVERS AND INTO THE HARBOR TO PREVENT FLOODING OF CTY STREETS.

• THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CONSIDERED TO BE OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY NOW.

BANGLADESH:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• BANGLADESH, ONE OF THE MOST VULNERABLE PLACES ON EARTH TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, NOW REQUIRES USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS IN ALL FUTURE PLANNING AND DECISIONS.

• IT HAS BEGUN SWITCHING LAND USE FROM RICE FARMING TO PRAWN FARMING IN LOCATIONS WHRE SALT WATER IN THE BAY OF BENGAL IS NOW MOVING INLAND.

BANGLADESH:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• BUT, BEING ONE OF THE POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD, BANGLADESH CAN NOT AFFORD THE INVESTMENTS REQUIRED FOR ADAPTATION MEASURES NOW UNDERWAY IN MANY INDUSTRALIZED COUNTRIES.

• IT NEEDS INTERNATIONAL AID, WHICH IS NOT NOW AS AVAILABLE AS IN THE PAST.

GREATER NEW ORLEANS, LA: ONLY 300,000 AFTER KATRINA

NEW ORLEANS: ANTICIPATES HURRICANES EVEN WORSE THAN KATRINA

UNITED STATES:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• ADAPTATION IS NOW ON THE AMERICAN AGENDA BECAUSE OF HURRICANE KATRINA AND ITS IMPACT ON NEW ORLEANS AND THE GULF COAST.

• NEW ORLEANS HAS BECOME A LABORATORY FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, HAZARD INSURANCE, AND PUBLIC POLICY.

NEW ORLEANS:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM

UNITED STATES:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM ONLY PROVIDES 1-IN-100 YEARS PROTECTION NOW.

• 122 LEVEES IN THE SYSTEM ARE NOW CONSIDERED TO BE INADEQUATE FOR THE INCREASED SEVERITY OF WIND FIELDS AND STORM SURGES EXPECTED IN FUTURE HURRICANES.

UNITED STATES:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• “DEFENSE IN DEPTH,” A THREE-LAYERED SYSTEM, HAS BEEN DEVISED TO PROTECT NEW ORLEANS.

• EACH LAYER ACTS LIKE A SPEED BUMP TO ABSORB AND REDUCE THE ENERGY AND DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS OF THE SEVERE WINDSTORM.

UNITED STATES:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION

• “DEFENSE IN DEPTH:• THE INNER LAYER CONSISTS OF

HARDENED LEVEES AND FLOOD WALLS.

• THE MIDDLE LAYER IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF WETLANDS.

• THE THIRD LAYER IS THE BARRIER ISLANDS THAT MUST BE TRAVERSED BEFORE LANDFALL.

HARDENED LEVEE SYSTEM:

BOOK OF

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

On Science, Policy,

And EM HI-ED

And EM HI-ED