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SSRRII LLAANNKKAA PPOOVVEERRTTYY AASSSSEESSSSMMEENNTT Background Paper for the Country Partnership Strategy 2012 ‐ 2016 Asian Development Bank Colombo, Sri Lanka June 2011
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Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2. A Review of Background Documents ................................................................................................ 2 2.1 Changes in Policy Direction after 2005 ............................................................................................... 2 2.2 ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy 2009‐2011 ................................................................................. 3 2.3 Country Poverty Assessment Report 2007 ......................................................................................... 4 2.4 The World Bank Study 2007 ................................................................................................................ 4 2.5 Millennium Development Goals: Mid‐Term Progress ........................................................................ 5 2.6 Human Development Report 2010 ..................................................................................................... 6
3. Poverty and Inequality ..................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Poverty Status and Trends .................................................................................................................. 7 3.2 Inequality Status and Trends ............................................................................................................ 11 3.3 Spatial Inequality ............................................................................................................................... 12 3.4 Poverty and Economic Activity ......................................................................................................... 14 3.5 Poverty and Individual Attributes ..................................................................................................... 16 3.6 Poverty and Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 18 3.7 Poverty and Remittance Inflows ....................................................................................................... 20 3.8 Poverty in the Conflict‐Affected Region ........................................................................................... 22 3.9 Poverty against Global Financial Crisis .............................................................................................. 24
4. Poverty Reduction Policies ............................................................................................................. 26 4.1 Poverty Alleviation Programme: Samurdhi ...................................................................................... 26 4.2 Assistance to Rural Farmers: Fertilizer Subsidy ................................................................................ 27 4.3 General Welfare Programmes .......................................................................................................... 28
Free Health and Free Education ...................................................................................................... 29 Subsidized and Regulated Prices ..................................................................................................... 29
4.4 Pro‐poor and Pro‐rural Growth Strategy .......................................................................................... 30 5. Conclusions and Policy Guidelines .................................................................................................. 31 5.1 Findings and Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 32 5.2 Policy Guidelines ............................................................................................................................... 33
Poverty Reduction and Social Welfare ............................................................................................ 33 Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Growth ...................................................................................... 34
References ......................................................................................................................................... 36
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Tables
Table 1: Poverty, Inequality and Human Development 2010 ....................................................................... 6 Table 2: Population below Official Poverty Line ........................................................................................... 8 Table 3: Population and poor persons by sector .......................................................................................... 8 Table 4: Poverty Gap Index (%) ..................................................................................................................... 9 Table 5: Change in Official Poverty Line and Rate of Inflation (%) ............................................................. 10 Table 6: Gini Coefficient of Household Income .......................................................................................... 11 Table 7: Household Income Shares of Poor and Rich (%) ........................................................................... 12 Table 8: Per Capita Mean Income and Poverty by Province ....................................................................... 13 Table 9: Poverty Incidence and Poor Households by Industry 2006/07 ..................................................... 14 Table 10: Provincial Agriculture and GDP, 2004 and 2007 ......................................................................... 15 Table 11: Main Sources of Household Income by Province (%) 2006/07 ................................................... 15 Table 12: Poverty and Education of the Household Head 2006/2007 ....................................................... 18 Table 13: Poor's Accessibility to Services and Facilities 2006/07 ............................................................... 19 Table 14: Basic Socio Economic Indicators of North and East, 2003/2004 ................................................ 22 Table 15: Expenditure on Samurdhi and Fertilizer Subsidy ........................................................................ 27
Figures
Figure 1: Change in Colombo Consumer Price Index 2003‐2009 ............................................................... 10 Figure 2: Gini Coefficient by Province, 2006/07 and 2009/10 .................................................................... 13 Figure 3: Poverty (2009/10) and Unemployment (2010) by District .......................................................... 17 Figure 4: Poverty and Education of People 2006/07 .................................................................................. 18 Figure 5: Poverty and the Availability of Electricity for Lighting 2006/07 .................................................. 20 Figure 6: Private Remittance and Export of Garments 2001‐2010 ............................................................. 20 Figure 7: Migrant Workers as % of Population by District 2009 ................................................................. 21 Figure 8: Mean Household Income by District 2009/10 ............................................................................. 23 Figure 9: Quarterly Rates of GDP Growth (%) 2007‐2010 .......................................................................... 25 Figure 10: Beneficiaries of Samurdhi Relief Programme 2001‐2010 .......................................................... 26 Figure 11: Labour Force in Agriculture Sector 2002‐2009 .......................................................................... 31
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1. INTRODUCTION
A fresh look at the poverty status at the current juncture of the development process of Sri Lanka is imperative for few reasons. Firstly, the country is free from its three‐decades of internal conflict which came to an end in May 2009. The conflict had not only prevented the country from achieving its development potential, but also made its own contribution to poverty and vulnerability. Second, the country is also free from the economic suppression caused by the transmission of adverse effects of the global financial crisis in 2008‐2009. The crisis hit the real and financial sectors and trickled down to the social sector, affecting lives and living standards of the poor and the vulnerable groups (Abeyratne 2010). Being free from both the internal and external suppressive factors, as the policy documents highlighted (Mahinda Chintana 2010; Budget Speech 2011), there is widespread optimism about achieving ‘medium‐term economic prosperity’.
Thirdly, on the part of policy making too there was a substantial change in development ideology in the second half of the 2000s. The newly elected government that continued to be in power to date diverted its development strategy and economic policy in new directions since 2005. In the context of new development ideology, the government placed special emphasis on social development, distributive policies, extensive government intervention and the ‘domestic’ economic activities of the rural populations. Although there is concern about the long‐term sustainability of the new directions in development strategy and macroeconomic policy, they were important in coping with short‐term adverse effects of economic suppression at the time.
The purpose of this study is to provide a fresh assessment of poverty in Sri Lanka. The assessment of current poverty status and trends in the context of policy changes and shocks, apart from its own policy relevance, is intended to guide the formulation of the country partnership strategy of the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The study is based on data and information on current poverty status and trends obtained from the official statistical reports. The most recent data on poverty are available in the recent Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) reports of the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS 2009/10 and 2006/07). However, at the time of preparing this study, the DCS has published only the Preliminary Report of the most recent survey for 2009/10, which does not provide the detailed information on poverty. Therefore, part of the analysis on some aspects of poverty is based on the previous survey report for 2006/07. Supplementary data on the issue were obtained from other local and international secondary data sources and studies. There is a limitation due to the lack of data and information about the conflict‐affected region in the Northern and Eastern provinces of the country, as the national surveys are yet to be conducted after the end of the conflict. On the basis of available information, the study also attempts to focus on the poverty implications of this internal conflict as well as the country’s exposure to the global financial crisis (2008‐2009).
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The study is organized in five sections: Introduction is followed by a review of the poverty status and trends in Sri Lanka in Section 2, as appeared in the recent studies of the ADB, World Bank and the UNDP. Current status and trends of poverty and related socio economic developments are examined and analyzed in Section 3. The existing policies and programmes to address the poverty issue are reviewed in Section 4. Finally, Section 5 presents the conclusions and inferences of the analysis, followed by policy guidelines to formulate country partnership strategy and to streamline the poverty reduction strategies.
2. A REVIEW OF BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS
The most recent poverty assessment study of the ADB has been carried out at least 3 years ago (Gunatilaka 2007) in providing background information to ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy, Sri Lanka 2009‐2011 (ADB 2008). Both the poverty assessment study and the country partnership strategy have been prepared in the backdrop of Sri Lanka’s internal political conflict, taking it as a given factor. Moreover the Sri Lankan economy was not yet experienced the US financial crisis that started to reflect its global implications since mid‐2008. Therefore, the economic and poverty implications of the end of the internal conflict and the global financial crisis were obviously beyond the scope of any study carried out by that time.
The new government’s development ideology and policy directions were, however, clear as reflected by the government’s policy documents and election manifestos (Ten Year Development Framework (2006‐2016), Mahinda Chintana 2005, Budget Speech 2005). The economy had already moved forward within the context of new development strategy and policy framework following the changes in power at the Parliamentary and Presidential elections in 2004 and 2005 respectively. The poverty assessment study and the country partnership strategy have also categorically referred to the changes in policy directions and the development initiatives of the new government.
2.1 Changes in Policy Direction after 2005
Poverty and inequality, including regional development imbalances, were some of the important issues that received much attention in the early 2000s (CBSL 2005, Mutaliph et. al. 2001‐2002). These issues were also emphasized at the parliamentary election in 2004 and the presidential election in 2005. The United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) which resorted to these issues at its political campaign at the elections formed the new government and the new presidency and, continued to remain in power to‐date.
As revealed in the Ten Year Horizon Development Framework 2006‐2016 and in Sri Lanka New Development Strategy: Framework for Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction, published by the Ministry of Finance and Planning, undated) as well as in the UPFA election manifesto – Mahinda Chintana 2005 , the government attempted a ‘new national economic policy’ by integrating the positive attributes of free market economy with domestic aspirations. The policy documents stressed the fact
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that as higher growth alone does not reduce poverty, the major policy approach of the government was based on pro‐poor pro‐growth and distribution strategies.
Under the new economic policy framework, the rural and peripheral economies, domestic economic activities and, small and medium industries received policy priority. While the focus on social development was heightened, the government transfers to the needy sectors too increased. Simultaneously, the government expanded its intervention in the economy and, played the key role in the job creation too. The policies were directed basically at establishing conditions for a rapid and equitable growth with increased government intervention during the period after 2005. Although all forms of reforms were within the existing market‐oriented policy framework, the policy reform process came to a virtual standstill. The government’s new economic policy was continued in spite of the subsequent deterioration of the macroeconomic stability.
The new national economic policy had vital elements which addressed the issue of ‘equitable growth’ either directly or indirectly. This was further supported by the then popular sentiments against the ‘open economy’ due to its negative form of distributive outcome. Although the statistical evidence hardly suggested an increase in national poverty levels in the open economy model, the social and regional inequality appeared to have widened. The most importantly the popular sentiments provided the required political support for policy changes.
2.2 ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy 20092011
The ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy 2009‐2011 is based on 2 pillars, named stronger investment climate and socially inclusive growth. While the former is concerned with creating an environment conducive to long‐term growth, the latter entails delivering economic and social services to the poor. The ADB was to enhance the investment climate by extending its assistance in the areas of macro economy, infrastructure, resource management and regulatory framework. Though indirectly, it is related to poverty alleviation through wealth creation and employment generation. The second pillar is essentially and directly related to poverty alleviation through capacity building among the poor, improving the service delivery to the poor and, focusing on targeted pro‐poor programmes.
The Country Partnership Strategy 2009‐2011 has been based on the government’s development framework that emphasized achieving rapid and equitable growth. Therefore, the ADB strategic priorities, outlined in the CPS are in line with the government’s development agenda. The consistency between the government’s development agenda and the donor assistance programmes is necessary to improve the programme performance.
An important feature of the government’s development framework, as acknowledged in the Country Partnership Strategy 2009‐2011 was “the focus on poverty reduction through a mix of large‐scale infrastructure investment and village development” – the mix that appeared to have ignored in the past. Yet it was highlighted that the achievement of the growth targets depends on the public sector efficiency, private investment and the cessation of the conflict. The political conflict came to an end,
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satisfying one of the critical conditions of growth performance, but the improvements in other areas of concern were yet to be seen through reform programmes.
The ADB has identified that the basic challenge for enhancing socially inclusive growth as the need for substantial investments and policy changes. In implementing the projects, the ADB has focused on the areas outside the Western Province with special reference to the conflict‐affected Northern and Eastern provinces. The spatial concern with respect to socially inclusive growth was also justifiable due to important regional disparities of poverty and vulnerability.
2.3 Country Poverty Assessment Report 2007
The report on country poverty assessment by Gunatilaka (2007) provided background information on poverty trends, correlates and policies in Sri Lanka needed for the ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy 2009‐2011. The analysis is based on the HIES reports up to the year 2002, along with the supplementary data and analyses provided by other sources.
As the country poverty assessment confirms, according to the national poverty line over one‐fifth of people in Sri Lanka remained poor by 2002, while there has been a disproportionately modest decline in poverty rates during 1990‐2002. The study has also focused on sectoral and regional differences in poverty with reference to the poverty implications of the political conflict and the tsunami in 2004.
The report on country poverty assessment also provides an analysis on the issue of income inequality which supports the widely held claim that the income inequality has increased in the post‐1977 liberalized trade regime. More importantly, as the report recognized, the significant increase in inequality has been the main reason for slower progress in poverty reduction.
Poverty and inequality are two different concepts. Nevertheless, it is clear that some are able to open up opportunities to climb up to higher income brackets while others continue to remain locked‐in in the same low income brackets. Inequality can grow with or without an improvement in poverty reduction. An important contribution made by the country poverty assessment is its attempt to identify the main drivers of poverty and inequality in Sri Lanka. As the report analyzes, the differences in poverty and inequality are associated with spatial disparities in infrastructure, health, education, transport and electricity. Moreover, they are also associated with sector‐specific and growth‐related factors. Normally the poor do not have an access to the above factors at satisfactory standards. Therefore, there is also high probability for the poor to continue to remain poor without an incentive for a breakthrough.
2.4 The World Bank Study 2007
The study on an assessment of poverty in Sri Lanka by the World Bank (2007) provides a detailed account of many aspects of the poverty issue in the country till the early 2000s. According to the study, while the developmental achievements in the country are one of mixed success, consumption income poverty persists and the poor continue to face basic welfare challenges. In consistent with the poverty analysis in other studies, the World Bank study also gives an account of the ‘modest’ reduction in poverty along with increased inequality from HIES years 1990/91 to 2002. In particular, there has been a
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growing urban‐rural gap due to concentrated growth in the Western province against the rest of the country. Colombo and Gampaha districts in the Western province which have reported low incidence of poverty have also recorded the largest reduction in poverty.
The slow pace of poverty reduction in the country is linked to the growing inequality. For instance, the richest consumption quintile has improved its average per capita consumption by 50 percent whereas the poorest quintile has improved it only by 2 percent during the period of 12 years from 1990‐2002. The rising inequality has also been seen through the Gini coefficient which has reported an increase by 2 percent per annum – a rate much higher than many other countries in Asia. Therefore, the reduction in poverty in response to real GDP growth is much lower in Sri Lanka than in other Asian countries such as South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand.
The World Bank study raises some policy issues regarding the performance of targeted welfare programmes, which lies much below their potentials in terms of reaching the poor and the vulnerable groups. While the study guides the improvements in the targeted welfare programmes, its analysis on the correlates of poverty reveals the areas in which the government should focus on. According to this analysis, poverty is strongly associated with the household and individual attributes such as education and occupation as well as a range of spatial factors such as regional growth, employment opportunities and the availability of basic infrastructure. Therefore, as the policy guidelines of the World Bank study reveal, the policies aimed at poverty reduction must address the multiple dimensions simultaneously. In this respect, the study also acknowledges the government’s focus on infrastructure and development needs in the regions and areas lagging behind.
2.5 Millennium Development Goals: MidTerm Progress
According to mid‐term progress of reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the country had ensured the achievement of most of the MDG targets including those related to poverty, education and, health (DCS 2009, UNDP 2010). In fact, Sri Lanka has achieved and sustained impressive social and human development standards related to the MDGs through its long‐standing extensive welfare policies. As a result, when the MDGs shaped the future development vision of the developing countries in 1990 with MDG targets to be achieved by 2015, Sri Lanka had an easier path to follow. During the period of first 15 years, the proportion of people living below the national poverty line has declined from 26.1 percent in 1990/91 to 15.2 percent in 2006/07, indicating a faster reduction in poverty than what was expected by its MDG target (UNDP 2010a:1). The sharp decline in poverty gap and the share of underweight children has also indicated that Sri Lanka was on the track of achieving the MDG targets fast.
As was analyzed in many other studies on the issue, the progress reports of the MDG targets also acknowledged the increase in spatial inequality, in spite of the overall reduction in poverty level. Although urban and rural poverty have declined significantly, poverty in the estate sector has risen and is now more than twice the national average (UNDP 2010a). On the basis of the mid‐term performance, the reports have revealed some of the MDG targets that are unlikely to achieve by 2015 (DCS 2009).
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Among these the poverty‐related indicators are the income share of the poorest quintile and the share of population below minimum level of dietary consumption.
MDG goals related mostly to education, health, mortality and nutrition also reflect among other things the poverty levels of the country at least indirectly. Even in the case of the MDG targets in most of these areas, Sri Lanka has shown a considerable progress, according to the mid‐term progress review. Sri Lanka had already achieved its historical success in providing universal primary education and gender equality in education. The same applies to the success in achieving maternal health and child mortality.
In this context Sri Lanka is much ahead of many developing countries in achieving most of the MDG targets due to its pro‐poor growth strategies and extensive welfare policies. As the mid‐term progress review also indicates, most importantly the growth and welfare policies should be directed at reducing inequality and improving quality.
2.6 Human Development Report 2010
According to the innovative measurements of poverty and inequality adjusted human development indices presented in the Human Development Report 2010 (UNDP 2010b), Sri Lanka stands to be a distinguished case among the developing countries. Sri Lanka exhibits lower poverty and inequality in human development among most of the Asian countries with medium and low human development standards.
Table 1: Poverty, Inequality and Human Development 2010 Inequality Poverty
Country HDIa IHDIb Loss (%)c MPId
China 0.663 0.511 23.0 0.056
Sri Lanka 0.658 0.546 17.1 0.021
Thailand 0.654 0.516 21.2 0.006
Philippines 0.638 0.518 18.9 0.067
Vietnam 0.572 0.478 16.4 0.075
India 0.519 0.365 29.6 0.296
Cambodia 0.494 0.351 28.8 0.263
Pakistan 0.490 0.336 31.5 0.275
Bangladesh 0.469 0.331 29.4 0.291
Nepal 0.428 0.292 31.9 0.350
a: HDI ‐ Human Development Index b: IHDI ‐ Inequality‐adjusted Human Development Index c: Percentage difference between HDI and IHDI as the ‘loss in human development’ due to inequality d: MPI ‐ Multidimensional Poverty Index
Source: UNDP (2010b)
As poverty implications spread well beyond household income levels, poverty is considered to be multidimensional affecting all areas of human development. Thus Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
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quantifies the levels of deprivation in all 3 dimensions of human development – health, education and living standards. Similarly, the Inequality‐adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) accounts for inequalities in the 3 dimensions of human development. The greater the inequality the lower the IHDI value and vice versa, as the case of ‘no inequality’ across people is represented by the condition HDI equals IHDI. Therefore, the percentage difference between the two indices shows the ‘loss’ of human development due to inequality.
Among the Asian countries listed in Table 1, Sri Lanka shows the ‘lowest’ degree of loss in human development due to inequality, as the difference between HDI and IHDI is 17.1 percent. In fact, unlike in many other countries inequality in Sri Lanka is associated more with income than with health and education. Even though countries with higher human development standards exhibit lower levels of poverty, Sri Lanka is one of the few countries with medium HDI (0.658) combined with low MPI (0.021). Even with a lower per capita income, Sri Lanka has sustained its medium HDI due to better health and education standards. This point equally applies to the multidimensional poverty as well, because if there is ‘severe deprivation’ in Sri Lanka, it is reflected by living standards and, not by health or education standards.
Apparently, all indicators related to human development, inequality and poverty in Sri Lanka are consistent with the particular pattern of the country’s development process – lower output growth combined with greater achievements in social development due to extensive welfare system. It needs to be noted that, however, the numbers which are widely used to demonstrate social and human development standards do not necessarily capture the qualitative performance.
3. POVERTY AND INEQUALITY
As the official statistical reports, Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES) of the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS 2009/10, 2006/07) reveals, Sri Lanka’s absolute income poverty and inequality have declined over the second half of the 2000s. This is a clear change from the country’s experience in poverty status and trends prior to mid‐2000s, as discussed in the previous section. The performance in the reduction of both poverty and inequality appears to be impressive as reported in the HIES for 2006/07 and 2009/10. While the poverty reduction appeared to be a result of policy changes after 2005, methodological adjustments in poverty measurements in 2007 also seem to have reduced the numbers.
3.1 Poverty Status and Trends
According to the MDG targets, though Sri Lanka was to reduce the share of population below poverty line (Poverty Headcount Index) to 13 percent by 2015, the country has been able to record a 8.9 percent in 2009/10 after achieving 15.2 percent in 2006/07 (Table 2). Although the reduction in the Poverty Headcount Index was only 13 percent during the period of over a decade from 1990/91 – 2002, during the subsequent period of less than 8 years (2002 – 2009/10), it has declined by 60.8 percent. In other words, this is a reduction of the number of poor from 4.3 million in 2002 to 1.8 million in 2009/10. In
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fact, it is difficult to provide a plausible explanation to all the underlying causes of such an extraordinary reduction in poverty. However, it is worthwhile noting some of the contributory factors by taking the sectoral and regional disparities as well as methodological issues into account.
Table 2: Population below Official Poverty Line 1990/91 1995/96 2002 2006/07 2009/10*
Poverty Headcount Index (%)
All Island 26.1 28.8 22.7 15.2 8.9
Urban 16.3 14.0 7.9 6.7 5.3
Rural 29.5 30.9 24.7 15.7 9.4
Estate 20.5 38.4 30.0 32.0 11.4
Number of poor (million) 4.5 5.3 4.3 2.8 1.8
Source: DCS (2011, 2009/10) * Note: The initial estimates of the shares of population below poverty line for 2009/10 by the DCS (2009/10) are different from the those estimates reported in DCS (2011): 7.6 percent for All island, 6.5 percent for Urban sector, 7.7 percent for Rural sector and, 9.2 percent for Estate sector. According to these shares, the total number of poor is estimated to be 1.5 million.
Historically, poverty incidence was lower in the urban sector than in the rural and estate sectors. During the period after 2002, poverty in the rural and estate sectors has declined remarkably with a narrow down in the sectoral disparities by 2009/10. Even by 2006/07, the percentage share of poor in the rural and estate sectors were 15.7 and 32.0 percent compared to 6.7 percent in the urban sector. The most recent poverty data for 2009/10 reveal that the share of poor in the rural sector has declined to 9.4 percent (by over 40 percent) and, that in the estate sector to 11.4 percent (by over 64 percent).
Table 3: Population and poor persons by sector
Population in
2006/07 Population in
2009/10 Number of poor
2009/10 Sector Millions % Millions % Millions %
All Island 18.4 100.0 19.7 100.0 1.753 100.0
Urban 2.7 14.7 2.8 14.2 0.148 8.5
Rural 14.7 79.9 15.8 80.2 1.485 84.7
Estate 1.0 5.4 1.1 5.6 0.125 7.2
DCS (2006/07, 2009/10)
Poverty is largely a rural phenomenon as 84.7 percent of the country’s poor are concentrated in the rural sector (Table 3), engaging mostly in domestic agriculture. Interestingly, during the period of 2006/07 – 2009/10 the rural as well as estate population shares have increased with a corresponding reduction of the population share in the urban sector (Table 3).1 Out of 1.8 million poor in Sri Lanka,
1 This information needs to be treated cautiously because it reflects the classification of administrative divisions between rural and urban sectors. Local administrative divisions covered by Municipal and Urban Councils are
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over 1.5 million live in the rural sector. The urban and estate sectors account for 148,000 and 125,000 poor, respectively.
The depth of poverty indicates that the urban poor are not as poor as the rural poor, while the estate poor are much poorer than the rural poor. Depth of poverty as measured by the Poverty Gap Index shows that how far are the poor distant from the poverty line or the severity of poverty. The poverty gap is lower in the urban sector and, higher in the estate sector according to the Poverty Gap Indices for 2006/07 (Table 4). The depth of poverty in the rural sector, as given by the Poverty Gap Index 3.2 percent is just above its national average of 3.1, confirming that poverty is mainly a rural phenomenon. The depth of poverty in the rural sector has also shown a significant decline after 2002, although there has been an increase in poverty gap in the estate sector.
Table 4: Poverty Gap Index (%) Sector 1990/91 1995/96 2002 2006/07All Island 5.6 6.6 5.1 3.1Urban 2.9 2.9 1.7 1.3Rural 6.3 7.2 5.6 3.2Estate 3.3 7.9 6.0 6.2Source: DCS (2006/07)
Pro‐poor and pro‐rural policy focus appears to have made a significant contribution to poverty reduction. The post‐2005 changes in the development strategy and the government’s policy focus in favour of the rural sector and domestic agriculture, as outlined in the government’s policy documents, appear to have a positive impact on the reduction in rural poverty. In addition, the government’s focus on the rural infrastructure, water supply, electricity supply and increased government transfers were of importance in reducing the rural poverty.
Through collective agreements between the employers and workers, the daily wages in the estate sector were also increased by 40 percent in 2009. Besides, the growing labour shortage in the plantation sector has raised the average household income, while improving the bargaining power of the workers at the collective agreements as well.2 All these factors seem to have contributed to a sharp reduction in poverty in the rural and estate sectors than in the urban sector.
classified as ‘urban’ and, the Pradeshiya Sabha divisions as ‘rural’. The estate sector which consists of large‐scale plantation activity is a special category within the rural sector. In 1981, the shares of urban, rural and estate population were 21.5 percent, 72.2 percent and 6.4 percent respectively. The sectoral population shares as at present show that the above classification adopted in 1987 has led to a significant under‐estimation of the urban population and an over‐estimation of the rural population, since Pradeshiya Sabha combined the Town Councils (part of the former urban sector) with the Village Councils (former rural sector). 2 According to the information from the Employers Federation of Ceylon (EFC), there was acute labour shortage of about 100,000 workers in the plantation sector as well as in the Free Trade Zone (Sunday Times, June 28, 2009). Market mechanism does not appear to be capable of making short‐term adjustments to the problem due to both economic and social factors. In a situation where the prices and, hence the profit margins in the plantation sector are governed by the competitive world market conditions, frequent wage hikes are not easy. Apart from the
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Figure 1: Change in Colombo Consumer Price Index 2003-2009
Table 5: Change in Official Poverty Line and Rate of Inflation (%) Year
Official poverty line
Change in consumer price index (%)
LKR Change (%) 1952 2002
2005 1817 11.6 11.6 11.0
2006 2066 13.7 13.7 10.0
2007 2427 17.5 17.5 15.8
2008 2845 17.2 ‐ 22.6
2009 2942 3.4 ‐ 3.4
2010 3117 5.9 ‐ 5.9
Source: CBSL and DCS data
Inflation is one of the main factors that push the people into poverty and extreme poverty. However, ‘food inflation’ affects different people differently so that the rural poor in domestic agriculture are likely to benefit from ‘food inflation’. In general, an increase in nominal income against lower inflation in 2009 appeared to have helped the poor to sustain their real income level and to remain above the poverty line. The rate of inflation based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2002 = 100) recorded double‐digit figures since 2005 reaching the peak point of 22.6 percent in 2008 (Figure 1). Yet due to the decline in aggregate demand against global financial crisis and the domestic policy factors and the increase in domestic food supply, inflation rate declined sharply to 3.5 percent in 2009. In general, the lower inflation appears to have slowdown the deterioration of real income.
The methodological alterations in the computation of the official poverty line have pushed the poor above and closer to the poverty line in 2009/10. The official poverty line, representing the monthly
economic factors, the young generations with increased levels of education have a tendency to seek job opportunities outside the plantation sector.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% change
All items
Food and beverages
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expenditure required for maintaining the minimum basic needs of a person is based on the CCPI. The change in CCPI methodology in 2007 with an expansion in the commodity basket and a change in the base year from 1952 to 2002 has resulted in a lower rate of inflation (Table 5).3 By implication the increase in official poverty line in 2009/10 was also lower resulting in a methodology‐induced reduction in poverty as well as depth of poverty. By implication, the pre‐2007 poverty incidence must be an overestimation or, if not the post‐2007 poverty incidence must be an underestimation.
Moreover, it is worthwhile noting that the value of the CCPI can also be influenced by price subsidies and overvalued exchange rates. The government transfers to rural sectors and the price subsidies on essential goods and services have increased in the new policy regime after 2005. Similarly, exchange rate depreciation has also slowed down during this period, in spite of growing budget deficit, mounting inflation and finally the spread of the adverse effects of the global financial crisis. Given these developments during the period of 2005‐09, the exchange rate (LKR/USD) has depreciated on average by 2.6 percent a year, compared to 7.7 percent depreciation during the previous period of 2000‐04. The value judgments related to government intervention and policy responses to shocks are an issue in a different context. What is important in the present context is that poverty reduction has, no doubt, speeded up intentionally or effectively in the post‐2005 policy regime.
3.2 Inequality Status and Trends
Inequality in household income distribution in 2009/10 remains as same as in 2006/07 at national level, although there has been a slight increase from 2002 to 2006/07. The value of Gini coefficient of household income is 0.49 in 2006/07 and in 2009/10, which was 0.47 in 2002 (Table 6). However, there are some notable changes in inequality among different sectors. Inequality in the urban sector, which was the highest among the sectors in the past, has declined to its lowest level in two decades. The estate sector has the lowest inequality in the past, but it has increased to its highest level. With these changes, thus, the sectoral differences in income inequality appeared to have been narrowed down. The Gini coefficients in 2009/10 are reported to be 0.45 in the urban sector, 0.46 in the rural sector and, 0.44 in the estate sector.
Table 6: Gini Coefficient of Household Income Sector 1990/91 1995/96 2002 2006/07 2009/10
National 0.43 0.46 0.47 0.49 0.49
Urban 0.62 0.47 0.48 0.54 0.45
Rural 0.42 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.46
Estate 0.25 0.34 0.34 0.41 0.44
Source: DCS (2011, 2009/10, 2006/07)
3 The commodity basket of the old CCPI (1952 = 100) consists of 5 categories of consumer goods and services, while ‘food’ category was given the highest weight of 61.9 percent. The new CCPI (2002 = 100) is based on a basket of 10 categories of goods and services, while the weight of the category of ‘food and non‐alcoholic beverages’ is reduced to 46.7 percent. (CBSL 2007: 77‐78). As far as the ‘poor’ particularly in the rural and estate sectors are concerned, the reduction in the weight of ‘food’ can also hide actual poverty behind statistics.
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Table 7: Household Income Shares of Poor and Rich (%) Sector 2006/07 2009/10
Poorest quintile (%)
National 4.4 4.5
Urban 4.2 5.3
Rural 4.8 4.7
Estate 4.5 5.7
Richest quintile (%)
National 55.1 54.1
Urban 59.5 51.1
Rural 51.8 51.7
Estate 61.7 49.6
Source: DCS (2011, 2009/10, 2006/07)
At national level, there has been a slight improvement in the share of household income of the poorest quintile, with a decline in that of the richest quintile by 1 percentage point (Table 7). This implies that it is the “middle income groups” that have improved the respective income shares significantly; for instance, as the HIES reports show (DCS 2009/10, 2006/07), the middle 60 percent of the households have experienced an increase in their income share from 40.7 percent in 2006/07 to 43.2 percent in 2009/10.
At sectoral level, the poorest quintile has improved their income share in the urban and estate sectors, but not in the rural sector. The urban and estate sectors also account for a remarkable decline in the income share of the richest quintile. As was already discussed, poverty incidence has declined more in the rural than in urban and estate sectors. Yet this income change has not necessarily changed the income shares of either poor or the rich quintiles, but in the middle quintiles. The poverty implications of the sectoral changes in income shares are important. As these finding suggest, although rural poverty has declined it was not accompanied by a significant change in income of the poorest segments.
3.3 Spatial Inequality
As the Provincial Gini coefficients show, income inequality in the Central, North western and, Sabaragamuwa provinces is greater than its national average (Figure 2). In contrast, inequality in the Eastern, North central and, Uva provinces is much lower than the national average. Although national inequality has declined during the period of 2006/07 – 2009/10, it has increased for many provinces including the Western province.
Regional development disparities in Sri Lanka have received much attention in the policy and political spheres particularly after 2004. Provincial per capita income per month is a simple indicator of the issue of regional development as well as poverty differences. The Western province which continued to record the highest per capita income shows LKR 11,239 in 2009/10 (Table 8). In contrast, the Eastern
13
province shows the lowest per capita income of only 40 percent of that of the Western province (in the absence of data for the Northern province which has the lowest contribution to GDP). The Eastern province has also reported a substantial decline in nominal per capita income during the 3‐year period of 2006/07 – 2009/10 most probably due to the intensification of the internal conflict and the military operations during the same period.
Figure 2: Gini Coefficient by Province, 2006/07 and 2009/10
Table 8: Per Capita Mean Income and Poverty by Province Province
Per Capita Mean Income
(LKR/month)
Poverty Headcount Index (%)
Poor households
(%) 2009/10 2006/07 2006/07 2006/07
Western province 11239 8235 8.2 6.5
Central province 9000 5874 22.3 18.2
Southern province 7985 5806 13.8 11.0
Eastern province 4480 4919 10.8 9.0
North western province 8453 5782 14.6 12.2
North central province 9523 6585 14.2 11.8
Uva province 6766 5220 27.0 23.8
Sabaragamuwa province 8683 5153 24.2 20.2
Sri Lanka 8874 6463 15.2 12.6
Source: DCS (2006/07, 2009/10)
The Western province with the highest per capita income in 2006/07 also records the lowest poverty incidence of 8.2 percent. Interestingly, in the Eastern province the poverty incidence of 10.8 percent is
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Western province
Central province
Southern province
Eastern province
Northwestern province
Northcentral province
Uva province
Sabaragamuwa province
Gini coefficient
2009/102006/07
14
only the second lowest among the provinces in the list. This could be explained largely by the lower share of poor households (9.0 percent) in the province. It is noteworthy that this does not mean a greater inequality because, as we have already seen, the Eastern province has the lowest Gini coefficient as well. The Central, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces share a higher number of poor households as well as a higher poverty incidence. While all three provinces share a large part of the country’s plantation economy, the latter two provinces have often been referred to be ‘poor’ in terms of many socioeconomic indicators.
3.4 Poverty and Economic Activity
Poverty is greater in the rural and estate sectors than in the urban sector and, associated more with the agricultural sector than with the industry and service sectors. At national level, 21.6 percent of people who live in the agriculture sector are poor, compared to 15.4 percent in all the sectors (Table 9). Even at disaggregated levels, in all urban, rural and estate sectors poverty incidence is lower in the service sectors than in the agricultural sector. At national level, poor households are concentrated more in the agriculture sector than in other sectors. In the agriculture sector, 45 percent of households are poor, compared to 23.2 percent and 31.8 percent in industry and service sectors respectively. Given the dominance of non‐agriculture in the urban sector, most of the poor households appear to be concentrated in industrial and service sectors. In the rural and estate sectors, agricultural sector accounts for an overwhelming majority of poor households.
As the provincial differences in development are associated with the economic activity and income earning at provincial level, they could also explain the spatial differences in poverty to a great extent. The Western province, being home to over 30 percent of the country’s population and producing more than half of the country’s GDP has emerged as the most dynamic growth centre in Sri Lanka.
Table 9: Poverty Incidence and Poor Households by Industry 2006/07 Sector Agriculture Industry Services Total
Poverty Headcount index (%)
Urban 8.3 8.3 6.5 7.1
Rural 20.8 16.0 12.1 16.0
Estate 29.4 29.2 26.4 28.8
National 21.6 15.1 11.3 15.4
Share of poor households (%)
Urban 6.4 28.2 65.3 100.0
Rural 44.4 24.4 31.1 100.0
Estate 73.2 9.1 17.7 100.0
National 45.0 23.2 31.8 100.0
Source: DCS (2006/07)
Given the ‘pro‐rural growth strategy’ of the government the contribution of the Western province to the national GDP has declined from 51.4 percent in 2004 to 46.5 percent in 2007 (Table 10) and, continued to be so. However, an important feature of the Western province is that it accounts for the lowest
15
agricultural share of the provincial output, amounting to 2.9 percent. Interestingly, this does not mean that its agricultural output is smaller in absolute terms, as the Western province contributes nearly 12 percent of the country’s total agricultural output and it is bigger than the agricultural output of agricultural provinces – Eastern, North Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces. The key point is that the Western province is a ‘large economy’ based mostly on industry and services sectors so that it also has a lower incidence of poverty.
With the decline in economic dominance of the Western province, the corresponding shares of GDP have been improved by many other provinces. The greatest improvement could be observed in the Southern province, while the Northern and Sabaragamuwa provinces have not shown a change in its contribution to GDP.
Table 10: Provincial Agriculture and GDP, 2004 and 2007 Province
Provincial share of GDP (%)
Agriculture share of
provincial GDP (%)
Provincial share of
agriculture output (%)
2004 2007 2007 2007
Western province 51.4 46.5 2.9 11.6
Central province 9.2 9.6 16.9 13.9
Southern province 8.9 10.5 16.9 15.2
Eastern province 4.9 5.2 15.3 6.8
Northern province 2.9 2.9 17.9 4.5
North western province 8.5 9.9 16.6 14.0
North central province 3.6 4.0 20.2 6.9
Uva province 4.3 4.9 38.2 16.2
Sabaragamuwa province 6.4 6.4 19.8 10.9
Sri Lanka 100.0 100.0 11.7 100.0
Source: CBSL (2009)
Table 11: Main Sources of Household Income by Province (%) 2006/07 Province
Wages and salaries Agriculture
Non‐agriculture
Western province 40.4 4.5 17.9
Central province 33.8 18.9 13.9
Southern province 34.5 15.7 14.0
Eastern province 39.7 5.3 13.6
North western province 32.8 14.7 20.1
North central province 24.6 13.6 24.2
Uva province 28.9 24.0 13.6
Sabaragamuwa province 35.0 22.4 17.4
Sri Lanka 35.8 12.1 17.1
16
Source: DCS (2006/07)
The fact that agriculture is less rewarding in contributing to higher poverty incidence in the rural and estate sectors in Sri Lanka needs to be examined in the context as, there are deviations from the normalcy too. As the source of household income also indicates, only 12.1 percent of total income in Sri Lanka emanates from agriculture, compared to 35.8 percent and 17.1 percent come respectively as wages and salaries and, non‐agriculture sources (Table 11). In the Western province, agriculture income accounts for only 4.5 percent of total household income, where as the wages and salaries account for over 40 percent. Although the income shares of the Eastern province is also similar to the Western province with a small share in agriculture income and a large share in wages and salaries, we have already seen that in absolute terms the Eastern province has a tiny economy. However, the poverty rates are lower in the Western and Eastern provinces than in other provinces.
Evidently, economic diversification as well as the size of the economy seems to be important in determining the provincial differences in household income and poverty incidence. The higher shares of household income from agriculture could be found in the Central, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces which report higher poverty incidence among the provinces. Even though the North western and North central provinces account for a large domestic agriculture sector, their non‐agriculture income shares remain high and poverty incidence remain just below the national average. In general, the overwhelming dependence on agriculture is associated with higher incidence of poverty, but the size of household incomes from agriculture sector is determined by a combination of many factors.
3.5 Poverty and Individual Attributes
In general, poverty does not reflect a strong relationship with unemployment level of the country, as is confirmed by some other studies as well (World Bank 2007). The presence of the public sector as the main job provider along with government’s extensive support to rural agriculture has sustained employment even in the midst of worsening internal and external conditions in the second half of 2000s. The policy seems to have positive effect on both employment and poverty reduction. In fact, Sri Lanka’s unemployment rate declined rapidly so did the poverty rate. Yet this does not mean that with respect to the spatial disparities the two variables moved together. The three districts in the Western province and Anuradhapura district show lower unemployment rates as well as lower poverty headcount ratios. At the same time, there are some districts showing higher unemployment rates together with lower poverty ratios and, some other districts showing lower unemployment rates together with higher poverty ratios. In examining the correlation between poverty and unemployment, it is necessary to stress on the spatial differences in income and productivity that matter in either case. In addition, the methodologies adopted in calculating the unemployment rate and poverty can also be sources of spatial differences. The national poverty line varies across the districts from lowest LKR 2996 in Matara and LKR 3339 in Colombo, whereas the national poverty line was LKR 3177. In usual practice of labour force surveys, the
17
economically active persons who are above 10 years of age and who have worked minimum 35 hours during the reference period of 1 week are considered to be employed. Given the two types of methodologies adopted in enumerations, it is not unusual to observe spatial disparities among districts between unemployment and poverty. Figure 3: Poverty (2009/10) and Unemployment (2010) by District
The differences in poverty across the districts are associated significantly with the level of education of population as well as that of the household heads. The share of population with education below secondary level (no‐schooling and schooling up to Grade 5) is lower in Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara where poverty ratios are also lower and, higher in Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Ratnapura and Badulla where poverty ratios are also higher. The districts that report highest shares of population with education below secondary level appear to be either remote rural areas or plantation‐dominated areas. Perhaps, Ampara and Batticaloa could be exceptions due to lower poverty ratios accompanied by higher shares of population with education below secondary level. It is noted that presumably education alone does not reflect income and productivity differences across the districts, but these differences account for the spatial differences in poverty.
The level of education of the household head is also associated with poverty. According to provincial statistics, lower poverty headcount ratios are reported by the provinces where the education levels of the household head is higher. In contrast, education level of the household head is lower in the Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces where highest level of poverty persists.
Anuradhapura
Puttlam
Colombo
Kalutara
Gampaha
Ratnapura
BadullaAmpara
KegalleMatale
Polonnaruwa
Kurunegala
Batticaloa
Galle
Hambantota
Matara
Kandy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Poverty he
adcoun
t ind
ex (%
)
Unemployment rate (%)
18
Figure 4: Poverty and Education of People 2006/07
Table 12: Poverty and Education of the Household Head 2006/2007
Poverty headcount index (%)
Share of household heads by education (%)
No schooling
Up to Grade 5
Passed Grade6 ‐ 10
Passed GCE
(O.L.)
Passed GCE (A.L.)
Western province 8.2 2.3 17.5 43.1 22.4 14.8Central province 22.3 8.7 31.6 38.8 11.3 9.6Southern province 13.8 6.7 30.8 40.9 14.1 7.5Eastern province 10.8 7.9 39.0 35.7 10.5 6.9North western province 14.6 4.3 29.4 46.6 11.5 8.2North central province 14.2 4.6 28.0 46.9 12.7 7.8Uva province 27.0 9.8 36.1 37.6 9.7 6.7Sabaragamuwa province 24.2 7.8 29.8 44.4 11.8 6.3Sri Lanka 15.2 5.5 27.2 42.3 15.1 9.9Source: DCS (2006/07)
3.6 Poverty and Infrastructure
The availability of physical infrastructure allows people’s accessibility to basic facilities and services which could explain the spatial differences in poverty across the districts. The accessibility to services and facilities can be explained partly as the determinants of poverty and partly as the characteristics of poverty. As the determinants of poverty, the accessibility to services and facilities could enlarge the choices and opportunities for the people to gain from their economic activities. As the characteristics of
ColomboGampaha Batticaloa
AmparaHambantotaPolonnaruwa
Kalutara PuttlamGalle
MataraAnuradhapuraKurunegala
Kandy MataleKegalle
BadullaRatnapura
MoneragalaNuwara Eliya
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Poverty he
adcoun
t ind
ex (%
)
Population below secodary education (%)
19
poverty, the poor appeared to have been pushed towards the ‘under‐privileged’ areas in terms of the availability of services and facilities. In both cases, however, the poor become less‐productive so that they could be locked‐in poverty by the infrastructure constraints.
In most of the cases, the poor traveled longer distance than the non‐poor to reach, for instance as in Table 13, the bus halt, school, hospital, Divisional Secretariat, Post office, Bank and local government office (Municipal Council, Urban Council and Pradeshiya Sabha). Urban‐rual differences in distance to the places of services and facilities are not unusual due to differences in population dispersion between the two sectors. Nevertheless, the poor’s household location in the far remote areas in the rural sector as well as their scattered dispersion within a large area in the rural sector in Sri Lanka have made them even more disadvantageous than the rest of the population. These particular features of rural household location have made not only the rural poor more unproductive, but also the provision of infrastructure more costly and less‐effective, in contributing to sustained poverty. It is also noteworthy that the statistical data reported do not reflect the quality differences in services and facilities across the sectors.
Table 13: Poor's Accessibility to Services and Facilities 2006/07 Bus halt School Hospital Divisional
Secretariat Post office Bank Local
government Distance to poor households (km) Urban 0.3 1.0 3.6 3.2 0.7 1.1 2.8Rural 0.7 3.5 7.9 9.9 2.2 5.2 9.7Estate 1.0 5.0 8.8 19.5 3.6 5.7 17.4All island 0.7 3.5 7.7 10.1 2.2 5.0 10.1Ratio of distance to poor/non‐poor households Urban 3.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1Rural 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3Estate 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0All island 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4Source: DCS (2006/07)
While on average 80 percent of the total number of households in Sri Lanka had electricity in 2006/07, this has increased to 85 percent by 2009. In consistent with the government’s policy emphasis, the fastest growth of electrification has been in the estate and rural sectors. The differences in the availability of electricity to households across the districts appear to have associated with the level of poverty. Even in this case the direction of causation exists in both ways. In general, the poverty headcount index and the share of households with electricity across the districts show an inverse relationship. As somewhat exceptional cases Ampara, Puttlam, Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts show a lower distribution of household electricity, but the poverty levels are also lower than anticipated. In contrast, Nuwara Eliya also shows a deviation from the normal pattern due to higher levels of poverty than anticipated. In both cases electricity appears to less important in explaining status poverty.
20
Figure 5: Poverty and the Availability of Electricity for Lighting 2006/07
3.7 Poverty and Remittance Inflows
Sri Lanka’s fastest growing foreign exchange earning sector in the past decade has been the private remittance originating mainly from the foreign migrant workers. While foreign remittance inflows play an important role in alleviating poverty, the growth of foreign remittance inflows has also been a ‘poverty‐driven’ phenomenon.
Over the past 10 years (2001‐2010), in Sri Lankan rupee terms private remittances have grown annually on average by 18 percent compared to that of total export earnings by 8.6 percent and, earnings of the country’s major export commodity – garments, by 6.3 percent (CBSL 2010). As a share of total export earnings, exports of garments have declined 48.5 percent in 2001 to 40 percent in 2010 (Figure 6). Yet during the same period of 10 years private remittance inflows have increased from 24 percent to 50 percent.
According to the statistical evidence from the SLBFE (2009), while there are about 250,000 migrant workers annually depart from Sri Lanka, around 90 percent of them destined to the Middle East countries. The share of males accounts for about half of the total number of migrants by 2009, although it was about one‐third in the early 2000s and, one‐fourth in the mid‐1990s. About 90 percent of the female workers constitute ‘housemaids’ only. Moreover, housemaid and unskilled labour migration which is strongly related to poverty account for two‐third of the total number of migrant workers.
Figure 6: Private Remittance and Export of Garments 2001-2010
ColomboGampaha
Kalutara
KandyMatale
Nuwara Eliya
Galle
MataraHambantota
BatticaloaAmpara
KurunegalaPuttlam
Anuradhapura
Polonnaruwa
Badulla
Moneragala
Ratnapura
Kegalle
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
50 60 70 80 90 100
Poverty he
adcoun
t ind
ex (%
)
Households with electricity (%)
21
Figure 7: Migrant Workers as % of Population by District 2009
Poverty is, on the one hand, a determinant of labour migration so that people migrate for earning better incomes. On the other hand, poverty is a hindrance to migration so that people tend to give up this option due to extreme poverty. Moreover, the share of housemaid and unskilled workers can also accounts for a relatively higher percentage when poverty becomes an important underlying factor of labour migration.
According to the spatial distribution of migrant workers, Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara districts where poverty is relatively low, migrant workers account for 2.0 – 2.5 percent of the district populations, while the share of housemaids and unskilled workers is also relatively low. The share of migrant workers is lower in the districts such as Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Ratnapura and Badulla – the districts with the highest poverty levels in the country. These districts also account for the higher shares
20
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30
35
40
45
50
55
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% of total exports
Private remittancesExport of Garments
0102030405060708090
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5
Colombo
Gam
paha
Kalutara
Kand
yMatale
Nuw
ara Eliya
Galle
Matara
Ham
bantota
Batticaloa
Ampara
Trincomalee
Kurune
gala
Puttlam
Anu
radh
apura
Polonn
aruw
aBa
dulla
Mon
eragala
Ratnapura
Kegalle
% of total dep
artures
% of d
istrict p
opulation
Total departures (% of district population)Unskilled and Housemaid (% of total departures)
22
of housemaid and unskilled labour migration. The highest shares of migration are reported in Batticaloa, Ampara and, Puttlam in which both economic and cultural factors might be important in explaining the phenomenon.
3.8 Poverty in the ConflictAffected Region
Northern province and part of the Eastern province in Sri Lanka, affected by three‐decades long conflict present a special case of poverty after the end of the war in May 2009. Post‐war economic and social recovery in the conflict‐affected region has economic and social implications in the areas related to livelihood, economic growth, employment and the exceptionally higher number of people in the marginalized and vulnerable groups. However, an important problem of the conflict‐affected region is the lack of information on poverty and other socioeconomic conditions in the national surveys conducted after 1983. Although the most recent HIES (DCS 2009/10) extended to cover all 3 districts in the Eastern province and, 2 out of 5 districts in the Northern province,4 most of the indicators related to poverty, inequality and other socio economic conditions are yet to be enumerated and/or published. During the 3‐year period of truce from 2002‐2004, for the first time after 20 years the Central Bank of Sri Lanka was also able to carry out the enumeration of its Consumer Finance and Socio Economic Survey (CFS), covering the same 5 districts of the two provinces (CBSL 2003/04).5
The Northern and Eastern provinces which occupy 30 percent of the country’s total land area are the home for 2.6 million people or 13 percent of the country’s total population. As we have already seen earlier, the Northern province contributed 2.9 percent and, the Eastern province 5.2 percent to the national GDP. The economy of the region which was based largely on traditional domestic agriculture and fishing industry,6 did not have an adequate time span to derive the benefits of trade liberalization in 1977 due to the eruption of conflict in 1983. During the period of conflict, a large part of the region lost not only the livelihood activities of the people, but also the prerequisites of growth and development such as human resources and skilled labour, investment and investor class, physical assets and institutions. As a result, at the time of the end of the conflict in May 2009 the region remained lagging far behind the rest of the country in terms of not only the development standards, but also the development pre‐requisites.
Table 14: Basic Socio Economic Indicators of North and East, 2003/2004
4 The Eastern province consists of 3 districts as Ampara, Batticaloa, and Trincomalee. The Northern province consists of 5 districts as Jaffna, Vavunia, Mulaithive, Kilinochchi and, Mannar, while the HIES 2009/10 has covered the first 2 districts. 5 The CBSL (2003/04) claimed that the under‐coverage enumeration resulting from the exclusion of 3 districts in the Northern province was only about 2 percent of the total estimated housing units in the country. 6 Prior to the conflict, the Northern and Eastern provinces as a percentage of the country’s total agricultural produce contributed over 20 percent of rice, over 60 percent of red onion, over 25 percent of chili and over 60 percent of fish catch (Sarvananthan 2008)
23
Northern Province
Eastern Province
Sri Lanka
Per capita monthly income (LKR) 3208 2905 3968Per capita food expenditure share (%) 42.9 42.4 34.4
Gini Coefficient of household income 0.44 0.51 0.46
Income share of the poorest 20 percent (%) 2.3 2.3 3.6
Income share of the richest 20 percent (%) 54.8 58.6 55.1
Internal migration within past 12 months 91.7 82.6 29.0
Source: CBSL (2003/04)
Provided that the normalcy returned to the conflict‐affected region, what could be envisaged is the revival of its traditional agricultural and fishing activities which provided the main livelihood of the people. In addition, the reconstruction activities undertaken largely by the government and the resurgence of defunct service activities are likely to provide avenues for output growth, income generation and job creation in the short‐run.
As the CFS (CBSL 2003/04) reported, in many areas related to socio‐economic development, the position of the Northern and Eastern provinces remained below the national averages, but par with that of the relatively underdeveloped regions such as Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces. Per capita monthly income is lower in the two provinces than the national average. The exceptionally high internal migration figures in the two provinces also seem to have a bearing impact on the indicators of poverty and unemployment levels. Furthermore, the under‐coverage of the region by the CFS excluding the worst‐affected 3 districts (Kilinochchi, Mannar and Mullaitivu) would have undermined the reality. According to the DCS (HIES 2009/10), Jaffna district – the capital of the Northern province, appears to be the poorest district in terms of per capita household income (Chart 3). At the same time, the other district in the North covered enumerated at the survey, Vavuniya reports to be the 4th largest district in the country. All 3 districts in the Eastern province – Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Ampara, (together with Moneragala) report to be among the ‘poorest’ districts in the country.
Conflict‐affected region presents a special case of attention and care due to not only its high poverty incidence, but also its vulnerable and marginalized social groups. In addition to the problems associated with displacement, usually the vulnerable groups in the conflict‐affected region include widows who lost the spouse, children who lost one or both parents, injured and disabled persons, mothers who were too young to bear children, and malnourished children, women and elderly persons.
Figure 8: Mean Household Income by District 2009/10
24
3.9 Poverty against Global Financial Crisis
In general, the poor are venerable to economic crises although economic crises start in the spheres well beyond the poor’s sight, because the crises ultimately reach the ‘bottom of the pyramid’. According to the World Bank (2007), even a small shock can push a large number of households, who remained just above the poverty line into poverty and, who remained poor into extreme poverty. The process leads to an increase or at least to a slowdown in the improvement in the poverty incidence and poverty depth.
The official sources of poverty data in Sri Lanka as reported in DCS (2009/10), however, show a deviation from the normalcy and, in fact, a paradox. Poverty has declined remarkably in the backdrop of the global financial crisis in 2008‐2009. Part of the explanation is related, as we have already seen, to methodological changes. The rest of the explanation is related to the changes in development strategy and the policy framework after 2004 (Abeyratne 2010), which is discussed below.
As a result of the transmission of the adverse effects of the global financial crisis into Sri Lanka, the real GDP growth declined in the 2nd half of 2008 and the 1st half of 2009 (Chart 4). The output of all three sectors – agriculture, industry and service sectors declined, but the downturn was more acute in the sectors that are integrated with the global economy such as the export sectors than in the domestic economic activities such as domestic agriculture (Abeyratne 2010). The contraction in output translated into a loss of income and employment, resulting in an increase in incidence and depth of poverty.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
ColomboGampahaKalutaraKandyMatale
Nuwara EliyaGalle
MataraHambantota
JaffnaVavuniyaBatticaloaAmpara
TrincomaleeKurunegala
PuttlamAnuradhapuraPolonnaruwa
BadullaMoneragalaRatnapura
Kegalle
WP
CPSP
NP*
EPNW
NC
UP
SB
LKR 1000s / month* NP, excluding Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Mannar.
25
Figure 9: Quarterly Rates of GDP Growth (%) 2007-2010
The government had already placed emphasis on domestic agriculture and increased government intervention in the economy during the past few years before the crisis. The change in development strategy prior to the crisis, as outlined in the government’s policy documents (Mahinda Chintana 2005), had compensated for the losses occurred in the sectors contracted against the crisis.
The government which believed in an intensive role of the state, increased public sector employment and raised expenditure on transfer payments to households and on welfare expenditure. According to official labour force surveys, while the industrial and service sectors were losing the jobs in 2009, the agriculture sector had created new jobs in compensating for the employment losses (Abeyratne 2010). Although the service sector had lost jobs in net terms, the government has been the main job provider which had increased public sector employment to over 1.3 million by 20 percent during 2004‐2009 (CBSL 2009:91, 2006:65).
In spite of rising budget deficits, the government expanded the size of the government, increased transfer payments to the households and undertook massive public investment drive. According to the government finances reported in the Annual Reports of the CBSL , government expenditure exceeded LKR 1.2 trillion by 2009 – a 2.5 times increase over its 2004 level. Expenditure on public investment increased 3.4 times during the same period and reached LKR 330 billion by 2009. Moreover, the public investment included large‐scale investment such as ports, airports, highways, coal power and hydro power, irrigation schemes as well as a series of rural infrastructure development projects.
These changes in the development strategy and policy framework of the country, though not sustainable in the long‐run, has mitigated at least to a certain extent the crisis impact on the economy. While other countries in the world – both developed and developing countries were stimulating their crisis‐stricken economies through expansionary policies, government transfers and, sometimes even
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GDP Agriculture Industry Services
26
protectionist measures, Sri Lanka could be seen implementing them already since few years before the crisis. In effect, the post‐2004 fiscal expansion not only sustained income and employment, but also averted the crisis impact on poverty.
4. POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES
Sri Lanka has an extensive targeted poverty alleviation programme and a wide range of general welfare programmes which were the main underlying factors of the achievements of better social and human development standards. Despite frequent changes within the overall welfare and safety net programmes, on average they continued to remain during the post‐independent era as an important expenditure component of the government budget. Apart from the poverty alleviation and welfare programmes, the changes in development strategy and the macroeconomic policy framework after 2004 also appear to have a bearing impact on poverty reduction in the country.
4.1 Poverty Alleviation Programme: Samurdhi
The Samurdhi Relief Programme in Sri Lanka is considered to be the most extensive poverty alleviation programme in South Asia (CBSL 2008). The programme was initiated in 1989 (under a different title – Janasaviya) following the withdrawal of most of the former consumer subsidy schemes implemented for decades in the past. In spite of frequent changes within the programme, it continued to be the large single safety net of the country. The programme has a dual objective of protecting the poor from further deteriorating their present living standards and of raising the income of the poor above the poverty line.
The Samurdhi Relief Programme is basically an income supplement programme targeting the poor households. In addition, however, this includes various components aimed at other aspects of poverty such as food and nutrition, social security, income generation, self‐employment support, and savings and credits. In order to cover these elements of poverty alleviation, the Samurdhi Relief Programme includes sub‐components such as dry ration programme, nutrition programme, social security fund, compulsory savings, voluntary savings, and credits to the poor. The implementation of the programme is assigned to a statutory body – Samurdhi Authority – of the government under the Ministry of Samurdhi and Poverty Alleviation. Various other government agencies such as the Department of the Commissioner Genral of Samurdhi, Rural Development Training and Research Institute, International Centre of Training of Rural Leaders and the Samurdhi Bank with its widespread branch network in the country assist in implementing the programme. At grass root level, the programme is linked to the communities through Samurdhi officers.
Figure 10: Beneficiaries of Samurdhi Relief Programme 2001-2010
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The poor targeting of this major poverty alleviation programme of the country and the problems arising out of poor targeting have been discussed and debated extensively over the past few decades. The Samurdhi Relief Programme still covers over 1.57 million families which consist of about 6.3 million population (Figure 5). As a share of the total population, Samurdhi reciepients account for over 30 percent, whereas the share of poor in the country accounts for only 7.6 percent of the total population. In fact, the Samurdhi programme should cover less than 400,000 families, comprising of about 1.6 million population. As the actual Samurdhi reciepients are nearly 4 times the number of poor of the country, by implication Samurdhi benefits have spread too thinly to make a substantial difference to living standards of an average poor household.
Table 15: Expenditure on Samurdhi and Fertilizer Subsidy
LKR billion % of government
expenditure
Samurdhi Fertilizer Samurdhi Fertilizer 2004 8.5 3.6 1.8 0.7
2005 9.2 6.8 1.6 1.2
2006 10.8 11.9 1.5 1.7
2007 9.2 11.0 1.1 1.3
2008 10.0 26.5 1.0 2.7
2009 9.3 26.9 0.8 2.2
Source: CBSL (various issues) Annual Reports
4.2 Assistance to Rural Farmers: Fertilizer Subsidy
Fertilizer subsidy in Sri Lanka is a targeted producer subsidy programme covering paddy farmers in the rural sector. This programme, by reducing the cost of paddy production is intended to help the paddy farmers to maintain a reasonable profit margin and the consumers to purchase the staple food at a reasonably low price. More importantly, the fertilizer subsidy helps to sustain the country’s inefficient paddy production which a large part of the rural farmers depend on. However, it is difficult to anticipate
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Share of pop
ulation (%
)
No. of fam
ilies (m
illion)
No. of families (million)Share of population (%)
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an improvement in productive efficiency and commercial viability in the paddy sector through fertilizer subsidy, though it helps the farmers to sustain paddy production and their living conditions. As part of the government’s development strategy that favours domestic agriculture, the government envisages to extend the fertilizer subsidy to cover other food crops as well (Budget Speech 2011).
Although the government expenditure on fertilizer subsidy was much lower than the expenditure on the Samurdhi relief, it has recorded a massive increase from LKR 3.6 billion to 26.9 billion during the period 2004‐2009. This was basically a result of the government’s attempt to maintain a constant fertilizer subsidy to the farmers against the rising oil prices in the world market. In effect the accumulated fertilizer subsidy accounted for 96 percent of the market price of fertilizer in 2008 (Budget Speech 2009).
The expenditure on fertilizer subsidy is likely to respond to the highly volatile oil price in the world and its long‐term upward trend. Given the lack of policy measures to address the fundamental structural weaknesses in domestic agricultural sector related mainly to the small‐scale farm‐holding system and poorly defined property rights in the rural agriculture sector, the importance of government subsidies to domestic agriculture is likely to rise. Whatever the cost of the programme may be, it has mitigated rural poverty and vulnerability against the market shocks and the problems of structural weaknesses in rural agriculture.
4.3 General Welfare Programmes
If a discussion on policies and programmes for poverty reduction in Sri Lanka is aimed at the targeted safety net programmes, it leads to a serious underestimation of the government assistance to the poor because there is a wide range of welfare programmes. In fact, these general welfare programmes which include mainly the free health system, free education system and, consumer subsidies covering the island and the entire population provide benefits not only to the poor but also to other social groups.
General welfare programmes
I. Free health system a. Curative health care b. Preventive health care
II. Free education system alone with: a. free textbooks and uniforms for school children and, b. cash transfers and subsidized accommodation for
students in tertiary education III. Subsidized and regulated prices
a. Essential food items (rice, milk, other food stuff) b. Fuel (diesel and kerosene) c. Public transport (bus and train fares)
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Free Health and Free Education
Free health system covers both curative and preventive health care. Free education ensures both primary and secondary education for all the children, alone with the provision of free textbooks and uniforms. Although University education for undergraduate studies was also free together with the provision of cash subsidies and subsidized accommodation, admission was severely restricted due to inadequate capacity and resources. In the recent past, the expenditure on both health and education was in the range of 15‐20 percent of the total government expenditure. However, the total expenditure on both free health care and free education at national level should include the supplementary expenses incurred by the households as well.
Free health care and free education system in Sri Lanka have been the underlying factors of the country’s higher human development standards as well as the lower poverty and inequality in human development, as discussed earlier. As confirmed by the DCS (HIES 2006/07), poverty incidence is negatively associated with education so that the greater the level of education the smaller the probability to be poor.
The relationship between poverty and education or health care is, however, not unidirectional, as poverty is a main determinant of access to better education and health care. This leads to an important question whether the poor and the rich both have equal access to the same level of health care and education. Another dimension of the issue is, though the ‘numbers’ representing health and education standards remain high in the national context, these indicators do not reflect the quality at competitive world standards. Therefore, the government expenditure on health care and education does not necessarily show the government’s success at delivery of the services reaching the people in general and poor in particular.
Subsidized and Regulated Prices
Sri Lanka has a long history of price subsidies and administered prices, covering mainly the essential food items such as rice, dry rations and milk powder, fuel and public transport. Although most of the price subsidies were withdrawn during the post‐1977 liberalized trade regime, the new government appears to prefer them bring back into effect after 2004. Some of them, including price ceilings on rice also came into effect against the adverse impact of the global food and energy crisis. As far as the energy prices are concerned, particularly the diesel and kerosene prices were subsidized with a view of containing the transport and production costs and of averting the adverse impact of oil price hikes on the poor.
Even though the poor is benefitted from the subsidized and regulated prices as well, an important issue in question is whether it is the poor or the others who benefitted most from ‘lower’ prices as well as from free health care and free education. In addition, the lack of commercial viability of most of the state‐owned enterprises has resulted in a misallocation of public funds contributing to the growing fiscal deficit of the country.
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Some of the goods and services that come under subsidized and regulated prices are supplied by public enterprises. Ministry of Finance and Planning (2008:140) reported that there are 137 government’s commercial enterprises monitored by the Department of Public Enterprises and highlighted their major problems:
(a) Heavy reliance on the government budget for recurrent expenditure (b) Non‐payment of dividends to the government (c) Heavy public enterprise debts to the banks (d) Unusual accumulation of ‘circular debt’ – debts to one another
Apart from the problems of mismanagement leading to high cost of production and inefficiencies, the issues are related to their pricing practices as well.
4.4 Propoor and Prorural Growth Strategy
The post‐2005 changes in development strategies, policy priorities and macroeconomic policy framework have emphasized an inclusive growth with more equitable distribution. These policy changes contributed to the reduction of poverty and inequality. At the same time, however, these changes have raised important questions of ‘cost and benefits’ in many areas of such changes on the one hand and, their long‐term ‘stability and sustainability’ on the other hand.
Inclusive growth strategy, as a concept refers to a ‘broad‐based’ growth strategy that allows the poor to participate in and benefit from the growth process. In other words, as means and ends of growth the majority of the labour force could share the growth process. As the lower income strata of the population has the capacity and opportunity to participate in and to derive the benefits from growth, pro‐poor and pro‐rural growth strategy adopted by the Sri Lankan government could be considered as one of the inclusive growth model. However, even inclusive growth process can also be ‘intervention‐driven and fiscal‐driven’ – a strategy that could distort the market incentive structure and impose additional fiscal burden. Moreover, a strategy as such can lead to gain little benefit from exhausting large amount of resources, raising the issues of sustainability in the long‐run.
The government’s Ten Year Development Framework 2006‐2016 as well as the election manifestos (Mahinda Chintana 2005, Mahinda Chintana 2010) reflected a pro‐poor and pro‐rural focus of development strategy with policy emphasis on ‘domestic economic activities’. The policies included government assistance, market interventions, transfer payments and infrastructure development in the areas of rural roads, electricity supply, water supply, irrigation and other. In fact, the diversion of policy priorities and allocation of budgetary resources under the new development strategy appears to have enabled the rural population to increase their participation in and, to derive more benefits from the inclusive growth strategy. Employment in agriculture has also increased from 2.1 million in 2005 to 2.3 million in 2009; as a share of the total employment this is an increase from 30.3 to 32.5 percent (Figure 5). It is noted that these figures refer to the total agriculture sector, which includes both domestic agriculture and plantation agriculture. If the plantation sector which has faced with a growing labour
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shortage is excluded, presumably the employment changes in the domestic agriculture sector would have been even more dramatic than what is explained by the figures above.
Figure 11: Labour Force in Agriculture Sector 2002-2009
There are important issues in question that require attention of the policy circles. The dominant feature of the domestic agriculture sector in Sri Lanka as elsewhere in a developing country has been the fact that ‘too many people are producing too little for too small average income’ and, hence rural poverty. The normal pattern of change in employment composition with rapid economic growth should be in reality in the opposite direction since growth results in a labour flight away from the traditional rural agriculture for the benefit of both agriculture itself and non‐agriculture. In the same line of development thinking, the World Bank (2009) in its World Development Report 2009 on Economics Geography argues for more equitable development with spatial balance through ‘urban concentration without congestion’.
Although a strategy for inclusive growth should take policy priority, the above strategy that favours domestic agriculture is most likely to make the rural poor survive at its best outcome, but unlikely to make a substantial contribution to sustainable income and employment growth. In fact, since the late 1980s the growth of GDP in Sri Lanka started to move closely with that of the dominant non‐agricultural activities and not agriculture (Abeyratne and Rodrigo 2006). Given this turning point in the Sri Lankan economy about 25 years ago, the rural agriculture that dependent on government transfers to make a small contribution to the GDP will not sustain a higher rate of GDP growth.
5. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY GUIDELINES
The preceding analysis was aimed at providing an up to date assessment of the status and trends of poverty in Sri Lanka. This was intended to reveal the background information on the issue for the
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
No. of e
mployed
(million)
Share of employmen
t (%)
Employment (million) Employment share (%)
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formulation of ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy 2012‐2016. The analysis was based on the available official data reports and poverty studies.
A fresh assessment of the current poverty status and trends of Sri Lanka at the current juncture of the country’s development process is important for a number of reasons: Firstly, the new government that continued to be in power after 2004 introduced substantial changes to the post‐1977 liberalized policy regime; it re‐directed the development strategy with an increased emphasis on pro‐poor and pro‐rural policy focus and re‐defined the role of the government by altering the macroeconomic policy framework. Secondly, the government succeeded by ending the country’s 3 decades long internal political conflict with a military success in May 2009. Finally, Sri Lanka also has to face the global transmission effects of the US financial crisis in 2008‐2009. While the policies and shocks had bearing impact on the economy at national level, this impact would have ultimately reached the grass roots level affecting lives and living standards of the people.
5.1 Findings and Conclusions
The poverty indicators based on the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (DCS 2009/10, 2006/07) reveal a clear change in poverty status and trends of the country, compared to those poverty records in the 1990s and early 2000s. While the country’s historical achievements in human development continued to progress, most of the recent studies on poverty had revealed a ‘modest’ reduction in poverty with an increase in inequality. Contrary to that, the most recent surveys show a rapid decline in poverty incidence, poverty depth and improved equality in the second half of 2000s.
While the methodological changes in Colombo Consumer Price Index in 2007, which the computation of the Official Poverty Line is based on appear to have pushed the poor towards and/or above the poverty line, the policy changes have also clearly contributed to poverty reduction. The urban‐rural –estate and regional gaps in poverty incidence have declined along with an improvement in the income shares of the poorest income quintile and poorer provinces. As far as the sectoral and regional differences are concerned, poverty is higher in agriculture sector than in non‐agricultural sectors and, in agricultural regions than in the other regions. The economic dominance of the Western province, which has the lowest poverty incidence, has declined with a corresponding increase in the share of GDP in many other provinces.
Detailed information on the socio economic status of the conflict‐affected region are yet to come. However, the available information show that the economic status of the Northern and Eastern provinces, which dominated the country’s agriculture and fishery sector prior to the conflict, remained far behind that of the rest of the country. The region which did not have an adequate time span to derive the benefits of 1977 trade liberalization had lost not only its potential development but also the ‘prerequisites’ of development. Given the end of the conflict, most probably the poverty issue in the region is related to its high level of poverty incidence as well as that of vulnerability.
Although the adverse effects of the global financial crisis were to penetrate deep into the poor and the vulnerable, unlike in most of the other countries these effects appear to have been averted by changes
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in development strategy and macroeconomic policy, initiated prior to the crisis. Within the spheres of re‐directed development strategy and the re‐defined role of the government prior to the global financial crisis, were seen as adopted by most of the other countries to stimulate their crisis‐ridden economies. However, the long‐term sustainability of these policy changes continued to remain as an important issue to answer because they appear to have led to short‐term benefits at long‐term higher costs.
The poverty reduction policies of Sri Lanka cover a targeted safety net programme, known as Samurdhi, a fertilizer subsidy to paddy farmers, and the country’s general welfare system. The general welfare programme covers the country’s long‐standing free health, free education and the system of subsidized and administered prices of essential goods and services. In addition, most of the elements in the pro‐poor and pro‐rural development strategy and fiscal expansion after 2004 have added new dimensions in addressing the poverty issue.
5.2 Policy Guidelines
The Sri Lankan policy focus on poverty has been extensive, covering a wide range of poverty‐related policy areas directly and indirectly. Therefore, the main policy issue is not the lack of policy focus, but the inadequacy of efficiency and effectiveness on the one hand and, the discrepancy between the short‐term benefits and long‐term costs on the other hand. The government transfers are unlikely to be sustainable means of poverty reduction, as they do not address the causes of poverty, but most likely the symptoms of poverty. Therefore, income and employment generation is the sustainable means of poverty reduction. In this respect, an important requirement is an establishment of conditions conducive to achieve growth momentum at national level as well as in the areas where poverty is a critical issue.
The following guidelines reflect a pragmatic and feasible poverty reduction approach which incorporates simultaneous policy measures in different spheres of policy making and partnership strategy. These guidelines fall under different categories as direct poverty reduction strategies, social development strategies and, growth strategies.
Poverty Reduction and Social Welfare
(a) Improving poor‐targeting Samurdhi programme could be made more effective than it used to be by improving its targeting. The targeting methodology can also be linked, firstly, to the frequent socio economic surveys and population census conducted by the government agencies. Apparently, this would reduce the size of the target group which would make the individual Samurdhi benefits more effective at household level. Since poverty cannot be a permanent status of a household, Samurdhi benefit should essentially be a time‐bound grant to a household. Secondly, targeting can be improved with a household and individual tax base system which records incomes and wealth ownership of all the citizens. This would reveal not only the ‘actual poor’ who should be covered by the poverty alleviation programme, but also ‘actual income earners’ who should be in the direct tax system.
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(b) Streamlining welfare Although the universal welfare systems are easy to administer, they exhibit the problems of effective delivery and fair distribution. As far as free health and free education systems are concerned, politically feasible suggestions would include an improvement in spatial distribution, more effective means of decentralization, and private sector involvement. As far as the price subsidization and price regulation are concerned, their need would be redundant with the improvement in proper targeting of the poor. Besides, they lead to market distortions on the one hand and, continuation of their fiscal burden on the other hand.
(c) Improving global competitiveness As high social development indicators alone do not reflect the country’s international competitiveness in health and education, Sri Lanka should now look into an upgrading itself to international standards in terms of its social development. This is, in fact, in line with the government’s own policy vision of creating a ‘global hub’ status in Sri Lanka in the areas of naval, aviation, commerce, energy and knowledge. This transformation requires globally competitive human resources which in turn multiply social development at home.
(d) Special care There is a need for ‘special care’ in poverty reduction and in social development at community and spatial levels to reach the more vulnerable social groups. These could be found mainly in the conflict‐affected areas in the Northern and Eastern provinces, but not limited to. Even in highly developed and urbanized areas of the country, there are vulnerable social groups including homeless families, helpless elderly, sick and disabled and, street children. An effective poverty reduction strategy should have a special place to accommodate the more vulnerable social groups that require special care.
Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Growth
(a) Infrastructure and regional development In the context of an inclusive growth strategy, as the government has focused on, infrastructure and regional development should continue to receive priority. Part of the explanation to the spatial differences in poverty and social development is related to the existing infrastructure bottlenecks. In this respect the recent developments in the regional development policies and investment in infrastructure are commendable. However, the regional development issue needs to be understood with caution, as an issue separated from the issues of ‘agriculture development’ and ‘rural development’ as discussed below.
(b) Concentration without congestion Given the freedom and incentives, the concentration of people in more urbanized centres is a natural process, but it can often leads to congestion too. In many ways, it would be development‐oriented and cost‐effective if concentration without congestion is accepted as part of the national policy. Regional development does not mean at all providing infrastructure, development services and facilities to all corners of the country, which would never be an achievable development goal.
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Besides, Sri Lanka as one of the few countries in the world with land‐scarcity and high population density does not have room for thin‐spatial distribution of people. Increased concentration of population in more urbanized centres in the regional economies, avoiding congestion would be of importance in accelerating regional growth as well as reducing costs. And apparently, it would also lead to a reduction in regional poverty and to provide an incentive for a regionally balanced growth.
(c) Rural development strategy There is no effective means of poverty alleviation unless it is based on income generation and employment creation. The domestic agriculture is the least important in both cases by its nature as well as structural problems. Therefore, it is unlikely that the agriculture sector would reduce poverty through income generation and job creation on the one hand and, would make a significant contribution to accelerate the country’s economic growth on the other hand. It is also noteworthy that the scope for expansion in agricultural land is very limited in Sri Lanka as a land‐scare country. Rural development strategy is, however, an integral part of the development of non‐agriculture sector. Even in this case, addressing the structural problems in agriculture is far more important than an increase in the budgetary allocations for little gain. In fact, people’s urban concentration without congestion is also related to the same issue, because through this process there is a labour flight from rural agriculture benefitting both rural agriculture and non‐agriculture sectors.
(d) Fiscal consolidation A fundamental policy issue, as inferred from the preceding analysis is that an overwhelming part of the poverty reduction in the recent past is based on the aggravation of the government’s fiscal burden. The gains are short‐term in nature, but the fiscal costs of the strategy have to be carried forward damaging the macroeconomic stability. This in turn could hit back the poor too in the medium‐term as it would nullify any short‐term gains of subsidies. Therefore, ‘how stable is the stability’ is an important issue in a sustainable poverty reduction strategy as well, because the macroeconomic instability not only affects the macro economy but also attack the poor. This issue points to the importance of long‐term poverty reduction through growth rather than grants on the one hand. It also reveals, on the other hand, the importance of a ‘tax data base system’ which would improve the government revenue as well as the fairness of tax distribution.
The government’s development approach that is based on ‘inclusive’ growth strategies on the one hand and, pro‐distributive strategies on the other hand is commendable in accelerating the rate of poverty reduction. In spite of that, the policy focus on short‐term outcome seems taking precedence over the long‐term outcome. The negative effects of the former particularly on growth and stability at national level seem to override the positive gains of the development approach. The policy guidelines presented here are directed in addressing this issue in enhancing the economic capacity of the country to sustain poverty reduction within a stronger macroeconomic framework.
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