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TRANSCRIPT
Modeling Committee Update
OTC Committee Meeting
April 11, 2017
Washington, DC
1
Overview
1. Monitored Results
2. Ozone NAAQS Schedule
3. Enhanced Monitoring Plan (EMP)
4. OTC 2011 Modeling Platform
a) Recent Modeling
b) Emission Inventory
c) Planned Modeling
5. EPA Ozone Contribution Modeling
2
1. Ozone Trends in OTR
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204
139
166
172
143142
123
144150
120
126130
110
115
108
117
101
122
111
113114
112116
102
93
104101
102
90
83
96 9892 90
81
87 87
0
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40
60
80
100
120
140
160
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200
2201
98
0
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81
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83
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P
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
pp
b)
4th Maximum 8-Hour Ozone in the OTR
Before the 8-Hour NAAQS 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
OTR Trendline
Year
1. Trends for OTR Exceedance Days
4
95
128122
87
110104
78
85
110
83
104
78
44
89
59
75
3936
6357
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P
# D
ays
# Days > 84 # Days > 75 # Days > 70 Linear (# Days > 70)
Year
1. 2016 4th High 8h Ozone Value (Preliminary)
5
1. 2014-16 8h Ozone Preliminary Design Value
6
1. 2014-16 8hr Ozone Preliminary Design Value
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2. Ozone NAAQS Planning Timeline
Attainment by (October):2020 - Marginal 2023 - Moderate 2026 - Serious
October 20202015 Ozone Nonattainment SIPs Due
October 2018Infrastructure/Transport SIP for 2015 NAAQS Due
October 2017EPA Nonattainment Area Designations for 2015 NAAQS
January 1, 2017NYC & Greater CT 2008 Ozone Demonstration Due
October 2016Submit 2015 NAAQS Nonattainment Designation Recommendations (2013-15)
December 2015Effective Date for 2015 NAAQS
October 2015Final 2015 NAAQS
8
3. Enhanced Monitoring Plans (EMP)
• Requires states with moderate or above ozone NAA & OTR states to submit an EMP as part of 2015 Ozone NAAQS process
• Plans due to EPA on 10/1/2019, or 2 years after moderate or above designation
• Effort underway to coordinate between states & EPA through OTC workgroup Gain regional benefits from plans
More knowledge on transport
More knowledge of air/sea affect on ozone
Information to improve model performance
• Will be future updates at OTC meetings and opportunity for comment9
4. Recent OTC Modeling
2017 Base Case
2017 Near water RRF adjustments
2017 Comparison between photochemical models
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4. OTC 2017 Base Case Modeling Results
11
2017 MARAMA Beta Emissions
4. Land-Water Interface Monitors
• Modeled Results at Monitors near water: Model performance indicates risk of substantial over-
prediction
Monitors can become rigid to control – don’t respond
• Following EPA Guidance, grid cells over water are included in calculations for coastal monitors
• Ozone tends to model higher over water so this can distort the results
• Modeling Committee has developed a different approach that reduces this effect Removes over water model grid cells from the 9-grid
cell calculation 12
4. 2017 SIP Ready Base Case Modeling Results
13
“No Water” MethodEPA Guidance
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.90.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
CMAQ
CA
Mx
R
CMAQ cb5 - CAMx cb5
CMAQ cb5 - CAMx cb6r2
•Models compare favorably with a
good correlation
•CMAQ tends to predict higher
ozone in the OTR
•When RRF is processed, results
are similar
•CAMx runs about 4-5 times faster
on the OTC modeling domain
CMAQ v5.0.2 CAMx 6.40
Met Inputs MCIP wrfcamx
Emissions SMOKE (CB5) cmaq2camx (CB5)
IC/BC Geos_Chem cmaq2camx
PBL Scheme ACM2 YSU
Kz fix KzMIN kvpatch
Chemistry CB5 CB5/CB6r2
Run Time 45 min/day 10/12 min/day
4. CMAQ v5.0.2 Vs. CAMx v6.40
AQS Code SiteDVC 2011
CMAQ DVF 2017 beta2
CAMxDVF 2017 CB5 beta2 kvpatch
EPA CAMxDVF 2017
Ek090019003 CT Sherwood Island – Westport 83.7 83 78 76240251001 MD Edgewood 90.0 81 81 78360850067 NY SUSAN WAGNER HS 81.3 78 76 75090010017 CT Greenwich Point – Greenwich 80.3 77 74 74090013007 CT Lighthouse-Stratford 84.3 77 76 75090099002 CT Hammonasset – Madison 85.7 77 77 76361030002 NY BABYLON 83.3 77 77 76090011123 CT Western Conn State Univ-Danbury 81.3 74 73 71240053001 MD Essex 80.7 74 73 71340150002 NJ Clarksboro 84.3 74 74 72360810124 NY QUEENS COLLEGE 2 78.0 74 74 73090110124 CT Fort Griswold Park-Groton 80.3 73 72 70240090011 MD Calvert 79.7 73 71 69240150003 MD Fair Hill 83.0 73 73 69
4. CMAQ Vs. CAMx
608 609 722 711 721 706 820 718 801 7050
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40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Date
Ozon
e Co
nc (p
pb)
90010017 - CAMx CB5
Obs 8Hr
CAMx 8Hr
9-Grid 8HMX 2011
9-Grid 8HMX 2017
608 711 722 706 606 609 716 820 726 7210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Date
Ozon
e Co
nc (p
pb)
90010017 - CMAQ CB5
Obs 8Hr
CMAQ 8Hr
9-Grid 8HMX 2011
9-Grid 8HMX 2017
Greenwich, CT609 608 722 531 721 601 729 719 723 7070
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Date
Ozon
e Con
c (pp
b)
240251001 - CMAQ CB5
Obs 8Hr
CMAQ 8Hr
9-Grid 8HMX 2011
9-Grid 8HMX 2017
Edgewood, MD
608 609 722 721 707 729 723 531 607 6010
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Date
Ozon
e Co
nc (p
pb)
240251001 - CAMx CB5
Obs 8Hr
CAMx 8Hr
9-Grid 8HMX 2011
9-Grid 8HMX 2017
4. CMAQ v5.0.2 Vs. CAMx v6.40
Summary• Over OTR (including VA) ozone monitors, CMAQ & CAMx
had similar performance, with CAMx a little bit better than CMAQ in terms of NMB, NME & R.
• CMAQ & CAMx yielded similar 2017 DVF, but CAMx had lower DVF over CT monitors near coast.
4. CMAQ v5.0.2 Vs. CAMx v6.40
4. Near-Term OTC/MARAMA Emission Inventories
Gamma Inventory Improvements are Beginning• Project future year to 2023 & 2020
• Upgrade to ERTAC v2.6
• 2023 Mobile: EPA MOVES & Nonroad
• 2020 Mobile: 20172023 Interpolation
• Remove rules no longer considered OTB
• EMF Growth for point & maybe area
• For 2020 some sectors interpolated
• Other updates for 2011/2023 from EPA v6.3
Alpha
• 2011
• 2018
• 2028
Beta
• 2011
• 2017
Gamma
• 2011
• 2020
• 2023
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4. Gamma Inventory Photochemical Modeling Plan
2011 Gamma Emission Inventory Base Case
• To ensure consistent inventories and update chemistry
2023 Gamma Emission Inventory Base Case
• For use in transport modeling
2020 Gamma Emission Inventory Base Case
• For use in Serious 2008 NAAQS Ozone SIPs
Update Documentation
19
Beta Modeling Complete & Documented
4. Current OTC 2020/2023 Modeling
Modeling intended to provide early direction & SIP support
2020 interpolated projection (2008 NAAQS Serious Nonattainment)• Interpolation between Beta 2017 & EPA 2023 inventories• IPM data to be replaced with ERTAC for EGUs• CSAPR-U Cap estimated adjustment factor
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2023 projection (2015 NAAQS Moderate Nonattainment)• EPA 2023 inventory
• IPM data to be replaced with ERTAC for EGUs
• Non-EGU point to have adjustment factors applied
• CSAPR-U Cap estimated adjustment factor
5. EPA Contribution Modeling
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• Considers all monitors currently exceeding:1. The 2015 ozone NAAQS2. The 2008 Ozone NAAQS
• EPA ozone contribution modeling with:1. 2017 emission inventories2. 2023 emission inventories
• Highlighted states contribute 1% or more of the applicable NAAQS
Answers the questions:1. What states contribute to current nonattainment2. What states will still contribute 1% or more should monitors currently in
nonattainment not reach attainment by 2023
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Contributors with 2023 Emissions
Contributors with 2017 Emissions
5. 2008 Ozone NAAQS: 75ppb - ≥1% Contributing States
Connecticut
Data Source: USEPA Contribution Modeling
Maryland New York Pennsylvania
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Contributors with 2023 Emissions
Data Source: USEPA Contribution Modeling
Pennsylvania
Contributors with 2017 Emissions
5. 2015 Ozone NAAQS: 70ppb - ≥1% Contributing States
Connecticut New Jersey
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Contributors with 2023 Emissions
New York
Contributors with 2017 Emissions
5. 2015 Ozone NAAQS: 70ppb - ≥1% Contributing States
Data Source: USEPA Contribution Modeling
Maryland Virginia
Conclusions & Next Steps
• OTC modeling indicates that:
CMAQ performs reasonably well when modeled values for monitor grid cells are compared to monitored data
CMAQ & CAMx perform comparably
• Ozone exceedances in OTR in 2016 ozone season similar to 2015
• Enhanced Monitoring Plans (EMPs) being discussed
• Emissions inventory projections to 2020 & 2023 being prepared for transport & attainment SIP
Initial modeling will be performed with an interpolated inventory
Improved Gamma emission inventories to be available during summer/fall 2017
25
Questions
Committee Chair:Jeff Underhill (NH)[email protected] (603) 271-1102
Modeling Lead:Mike Ku (NY)[email protected] (518) 402-8402
Emissions Inventory Lead:Julie McDill (MARAMA)[email protected] (443) 901-1882
OTC Committee Lead:Joseph [email protected] (202) 508-3839
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