Østlandsforskning - eastern norway research institute - lillehammer - norway holiday houses in...
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Holiday houses in Oppland county – stock, development and use
1. Norway: Number of holiday houses over the last 40 years
2. County of Oppland: Status in 2009- dimensions- localities- sizes
3. Norwegian mountain regions: Supply and demand over the last 10 years- stock: numbers and development- turnover: numbers and prices of holiday houses in mountain regions- turnover: numbers and prices – holiday and residential houses in Oppland
4. Technical standards- sizes- piped water supply- localities and development patterns
5. Use of holiday houses- by technical standards- sesonal patterns- owners’ residence and mobility patterns
6. Trend forecast
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Number of holiday houses in Norway 1970 – 2009 (including trend)
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
R² = 0.995603933112771
Antall fritidsboliger
Source: Statistics Norway
The stock of holiday houses has grown at a steady pace since 1970
Appoximately 10% of the total stock of holiday houses in Norway is localized in Oppland county
Number of holiday houses
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Nord-Aurdal
Ringebu
Sør-Aurdal
Øystre Slidre
Vestre Slidre
Gausdal
Nordre Land
Etnedal
Øyer
Nord-Fron
Sel
Lesja
Sør-Fron
Vang
Gran
Lillehammer
Lunner
Østre Toten
Søndre Land
Vågå
Gjøvik
Dovre
Skjåk
Jevnaker
Vestre Toten
Lom
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
4133
3412
3335
3249
2411
2274
2244
2104
2071
2060
1954
1735
1633
1535
1406
1310
1173
1100
1051
952
891
665
616
335
308
247
Distribution of holiday houses by municipality. Opp-land county 2009
Nord-Aurdal
Ringebu
Sør-Aurdal
Øystre Slidre
Vestre Slidre
Gausdal
Nordre Land
Etnedal
Øyer
Nord-Fron
Sel
Lesja
Sør-Fron
Vang
Gran
Lillehammer
Lunner
Østre Toten
Søndre Land
Vågå
Gjøvik
Dovre
Skjåk
Jevnaker
Vestre Toten
Lom
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
1.56
1.62
2.16
2.43
2.43
0.90
0.75
2.60
1.10
0.79
0.76
1.79
1.15
2.16
0.28
0.21
0.40
0.19
0.40
0.59
0.11
0.52
0.56
0.15
0.07
0.24
Number of holiday houses relative to number of residential houses (detached houses).
Municipalities in Oppland 2009 (Source: SSB)
Many municipalities in mountain regions localizes more holiday houses than residential houses
Source: Statistics Norway
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Heavy development in the mountain regions of Valdres, Midt- and Sør-Gudbrandsdalen
Number of holiday houses by km2 (from light to dark):
6-49 pr. km250-99 pr. km2100-199 pr.
km2200+ pr. km2
Spatial distribution of holiday houses by density. Oppland 2009
(Each quadrant on the map represents 1 km2)
Source: GAB
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Mean floor space is 63 m2
Mean floor space is 71 m2
Holiday houses in the counties of Hedmark and Oppland by total utility floor space 2006
Most holiday houses are moderate in floor size
Hedmark Oppland
Tota
l u
tili
ty f
loo
r sp
ace,
m2
Number of holiday houses
Source: GAB
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Holiday houses - development in Oppland and neighbouring counties. Numbers 1997-2009 and growth index (1997=1)
In Oppland, the number of holiday houses is increasing and fastly approaching a total of 45 000
Opp-land
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Oppland
Sør-Trøndelag
Telemark
Buskerud
Hedmark
Oppland
Sør-Trøndelag
Telemark
Buskerud
Hedmark
Inde
x (1
997
= 1,
0)
Num
ber
of h
olid
ay h
ouse
s
Number (solid line, right hand y-axis) and index 1997=1,0 (dotted line, left hand y-axis) .
Source: Statistics Norway
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Fritidsboliger - tilvekst 1997 – 2009 i Oppland og utvalgte fylker
Of the total stock of holiday houses in 2009, 20% is built since 1997
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
0
486
1430
2076
2946
3881
4744
5326
6127
6707
7174
7949
8680
0 %1 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
11 %
13 %
15 %
17 %
19 %20 %
22 %
24 % Oppland
Sør-Trøndelag
Buskerud
Telemark
Hedmark
Oppland, andel nye
Nu
mb
er o
f n
ew h
oli
day
ho
use
s si
nce
199
7
Incr
ease
in
% o
f st
ock
pr.
199
7
Increase in numbers since 1997 (solid line, left hand y-axis) relative increase in Oppland since 1997 (dot-ted line, right hand y-axis).
Holiday houses in Oppland and neighbouring counties : Increase 1997-2009
(20% of the total stock in 2009 is built since 1997 while the increase since 1997 has been 24%)Source: Statistics Norway
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Numbers of sold holiday houses is doubled from 1998 to 2008, but the peak in 2007 was not to be continued (at least temporarily?)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Transfer of holiday properties (with building) sold on the free market. Selected counties.
Number.
Buskerud
Oppland
Telemark
Sør-Trøndelag
Hedmark
Nu
mb
er o
f tr
ansf
erre
d h
oli
day
ho
use
s
County:
Source: Statistics Norway
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Average price pr. transfer on the free market is more than tripled in the years from 1998 to 2008
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Transfer of holiday properties with building sold on the free market. Selected counties.
Average price pr. transfer (NOK 1 000 )
BuskerudTelemarkOpplandHedmarkSør-Trøndelag
NO
K 10
00
Source: Statistics Norway
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Holiday house market shows the same pattern as residential buildings, but at a slightly higher speed
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Transfers on the free market of residential and holiday properties with building. Oppland county. Number of
transfers.
Oppland bolig
Oppland fritidsbolig
Nu
mb
er o
f tr
ansf
ers
Oppland residences
Oppland holiday houses
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…and the same pattern applies to price development …
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Transfers on the free market of residential and holiday properties with building. Oppland county.
Average price pr. transfer (NOK 1 000 )
Oppland boligOppland fritidsbolig
NO
K 10
00
Oppland residences
Oppland holiday houses
Source: Statistics Norway
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Average utility floor space 84 m2
– if all buildings < 40 m2 are discarded a.u.f.s.
95 m2
Average utility floor space 74 m2
– if all buildings < 40 m2 are discarded a.u.f.s.
is 91 m2
Holiday houses in Hedmark and Oppland raised in the period of 1997 – 2006 by total utility floor space
Holiday homes are growing – last decade’s new holiday houses average ca 85 m2 in by total utility floor space
OpplandHedmark
Number of holiday houses
Tota
l u
tili
ty f
loo
r s
pa
ce
To
tal u
tility flo
or s
pa
ce
Source: GAB
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The distribution is based on approx.
40% of holiday houses built since
1997.
There is a significant rise in technical standards, especially in new developments
It is reasonable to accept that most of old holiday houses don’t have piped water supply. Whether ’just’ above ’ half of holiday houses buildt after 1996 do have some kind of piped water supply could seem a bit more dubious . The results, though, are based on the most comprehensive property registrer in Norway (GAB).
Holiday houses by construction year and water supply source. Oppland county.
Units with a total utility floor space above 40 m2.
Water supply source
Year of construction
TotalBuilt before 1997 Built 1997-2006
Piped water, public supply Number 862 1303 2165
% 18,1 % 36,1 % 25,8 %
Piped water, private joint supply Number 127 482 609
% 2,7 % 13,4 % 7,3 %
Piped water, other private supply Number 311 282 593
% 6,5 % 7,8 % 7,1 %
No piped water supply Number 3474 1542 5016
% 72,8 % 42,7 % 59,8 %
Total Number 4774 3609 8383
% 100,0 % 100,0 % 100,0 %
Source: GAB
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Sjusjøen / Ringsakerfjellet
Hafjell
Kvitfjell
Skei
Venabygdsfjellet
Tyin / Filefjell
Vaset
Aurdalsåsen
Mysusæter/Kvamsfjellet
Bjorli
Beitostølen
Spåtind
Mylla/Bislingen
Kilde: GAB
Gålå
Holiday houses are built densly in holiday house development areas like in residential areas
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Hele året Sommer Vinter
Bruksdøgn Strøm, vann, helårsveg
Strøm/vann, ikke helårsv.
Strøm, helårsveg
Solcelle, helårsveg
Kun strøm
Solcelle, ikke helårsv.
Ikke strøm el. vann, helårsv.
Ingenting
Nights used by technical standards, accessability and season.
Source: Eastern Norway Research Institute 2005
Technical standards and accessability is decisive for levels of use
Whole year Summer Winter
Nights used El. power, water, road acc.
El. power, and water
El. power, road acc.
Solar panel, road acc.
El. power
Solar panel , not road acc.
Road access
Nothing
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Nights used and bed nights by floor space. Whole year.Index: Total mean = 1.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Under 40kvm
40-79kvm
80-124kvm
125 kvmog over
Total
Indeks total=1P-dgn: 1=137
B-dgn: 1=45
Use intensity also depends on size, but not so much as technical standards
Less than 40-79 80-124 More than Total 40 m2 m2 m2 125 m2
Bed nights: 1=137
Nights used: 1=45
Source: Eastern Norway Research Institute 2005
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Nights used, bed nights and number of users pr night by month and municipality. Mean.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Okt
nov
des
Jan
feb
mar ap
rm
ai jun ju
lau
gse
pok
t no
vde
sJa
nfe
bm
ar apr
2001 2002 2003
Bruksdgn
Rendalen
Gausdal
Nord-Aurdal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Okt
nov
des
Jan
feb
mar ap
rm
ai jun ju
lau
gse
pok
t no
vde
sJa
nfe
bm
ar apr
2001 2002 2003
Persondgn
Rendalen
Gausdal
Nord-Aurdal
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Okt
nov
des
Jan
feb
mar ap
rm
ai jun ju
lau
gse
pok
t no
vde
sJa
nfe
bm
ar apr
2001 2002 2003
Pers. pr bruksdgn
Rendalen
Gausdal
Nord-Aurdal
Use and occupancy rate are highly seasonal
Source: Eastern Norway Research Institute 2005
Nights used Bed nights
Persons pr. night used
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Holiday houses in selected regions in Oppland: Owner’s residence by holiday house region
Nordseter Hafjell Skei
The region of Lillehammer 29,7 % 3,6 % 17,3 %
From rest of Hedmark/Oppland 10,8 % 4,9 % 11,6 %
Oslo/Akershus 46,2 % 79,6 % 62,2 %
Østfold 5,3 % 6,2 % 3,4 %
Rest of the country 8,0 % 5,7 % 5,5 %
SUM 100 % 100 % 100 %
Holiday house owners from the capital region Olso dominate, especially new and alpine skiing resorts
Source: Eastern Norway Research Institute 2005
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50’
100’
100’ -
100’
100’ -
450’ –
500’
16%
20%
16%
20%
2%
5%
83% ’from south’:Daily mean: 1200 trips
(both directions)
3%
Holiday houses generates significant amounts of traffic flows
Source: Eastern Norway Research Institute 2007
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Increase in number of holiday houses 1997-2009 with trend until 2017. Oppland.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
0
486
1430
2076
2946
3881
4744
5326
6127
6707
7174
7949
8680
0 %1 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
11 %
13 %
15 %
17 %
19 %20 %
22 %
24 %
R² = 0.995944951400283R² = 0.995944951400283
OpplandLinear ( Opp-land) Sør-Trøndelag Buskerud Telemark Hedmark Oppland, andel nye
Nu
mb
er o
f n
ew h
oli
day
ho
use
s si
nce
199
7
Incr
ease
in
% o
f st
ock
199
7. O
pp
lan
d
Increase in number of units since 1997 (left hand y-axis) and % increase of stock in 1997 (right hand y-axis).
In 2017 will 30% of the total stock have been built since 1997(i.e. 15 000 out of a total of 50 000 units)