orx operational risk report june 2010

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ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

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Page 1: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

ORX Operational Risk ReportJune 2010

Page 2: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

Introduction:This is the fourth ORX Operational Risk Report. The report contains a high-level overview of the ORX global Operational Risk Loss Database and the high level trends in operational risk losses observed.

This edition of the report summarises losses in the period 1 January 2004 up to 31 December 2009. Earlier editions of this report began at 1 January 2002. The two years that have been excluded represent almost 20,000 events of a total of 161,997 and €14Bn Gross Losses of a total of €55Bn. This reduced dataset will have an impact upon the results for Corporate Finance as the large events associated with Enron, WorldCom and others, that were recorded in 2002 & 2003, are now excluded. The dataset, used in this report, still covers over 5 years of losses.

In the 2004-2009 period, ORX Members reported 142,293 loss events with a total value of €41,501Mn. Of these events 2009 contributed 27,053 loss events (19%) and €9,110Mn gross loss amount (22%).

The report contains some charts relating to losses, on a quarterly basis, since the beginning of 2006. The series of charts beginning with Figure 11a, shows quarterly data of Gross Income, Gross Loss Amounts and Number of Loss Events since the beginning of 2006. This enables a view to be obtained as to the performance of Wholesale and Non-Wholesale business lines during the Financial Crisis. It is likely that some operational risk events, connected with the financial crisis, will take time to resolve and will be reported to ORX in the future. An example is events involving litigation.

ORX is a not-for-profit industry association dedicated to advancing the measurement and management of operational risk in the global financial services industry. The association continues to act as a forum for the development of common operational risk standards, leading edge research and collective learning. ORX has recently conducted a survey of practices on the creation and use of Scenarios amongst its Members. This year Members will begin reporting additional attributes for losses. These additional attributes include Products and Processes as well as attributes specific to Large Loss Events. These attributes have been added to increase the value of the data to Members, in particular their business units.

Other initiatives that are due to be implemented before the end of 2010 include sector databases, for example Investment Banking, a revised Scaling Model, a Capital Benchmarking exercise, and enhanced reporting to Members.

To learn more about ORX please visit our web site at www.orx.org www.orx.org

Copyright Notice

All rights in this document are owned and controlled by ORX. ORX permits it to be used internally and transmitted publically, in whole or in part. This permission is granted provided that, if any aspect of this document is incorporated into a public document, into material given to clients by consultant or into commercial products, its ownership by ORX is acknowledged appropriately.

ORX has prepared this document with care and attention. ORX does not accept responsibility for any error or omissions. ORX does not warrant the accuracy of the advice, statement or recommendations in this document. ORX shall not be liable for any loss, expense, damage or claim arising from this document.

The content of this document does not itself constitute a contractual agreement, and ORX accepts no obligation associated with this document except as expressly agreed in writing.

2

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

Page 3: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

3

Total 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total Number of Loss Events 142,293 16,113 18,226 22,120 23,953 34,828 27,053

Total Gross Loss(€ Mn) 41,501 5,531 5,178 5,417 8,111 8,154 9,110

Average Loss per Event (€) 291,659 343,263 284,100 244,1000 338,621 234,122 336,746

Table 1 Overall Summary of ORX Annual Data (2004-2009)

Table 1 provides an overall annual summary of the loss data reported to ORX since 1 January 2004. Table 2 has similar data, but on a quarterly basis from the beginning of 2007.

As of 31 December 2009, the ORX global Database contained 142,293 individual loss events reported since the beginning of 2004. Each of these loss events has a value that is equal to, or in excess of, €20,000. In terms of the total Gross Loss reported to ORX for this period the sum is €41.5Bn. Of these figures 2009 accounted for 19% of the number of losses and 22% of the gross loss amount, slightly more than the 16.6% indicated for 1 year in 6.

Some of the apparent increase in 2009 results may be due to the fact that ORX continues to add Members. One way to adjust for this is to consider the Gross Loss per Loss Event. For the 2004-2008 period the average Gross Loss per Loss Event is €281,074 as opposed to €336,746 for 2009, an increase of 20% in loss size. Some events that have been experienced by ORX Members during the financial crisis, such as litigation, may not be reported until resolution in the years ahead. As a result, in 2011 looking back at the 2009 reported Gross Loss Amounts may show an increase in comparison to the figures reported in Table 1 today.

Overview of ORX Data

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

Page 4: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

4

Figure 1: Total Number of Events by Year (2004 - 2009)

Figure 2: Total Gross Loss Amount by Year (€Mn)

Figure 3: Gross Loss / €100 Gross Income per Year (€)

Visual Overview of ORX Data

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

Figure 1 shows the total number of events reported by year. The chart shows a gradual upward trend that is interrupted by a spike in 2008. A factor that may be contributing to the trend is the increasing number of ORX Members.

The spike in 2008 may be associated with the financial crisis and the risk environment in which Members operated.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2009i2008i2007i2006i2005i2004i

34,828Total Number of Events 142,293

23,95322,120

18,22616,113

27,053

Figure 2 shows the total gross loss amount reported by year. The chart shows a distinct step up in 2007.

When this chart is compared with Figure 1, it is clearer that the trend is not just due to the increasing numbers of ORX Members.

Due to litigation that is allegedly in progress, it may take more than a year for the final picture of losses in 2007 - 2009 to become clear.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2009i2008i2007i2006i2005i2004i

9,110

8,1548,111

5,4175,1785,531

Total Gross Loss €41,501Mn

Figure 3 shows the gross loss amount divided by the gross income. A way of interpreting this chart is that operational risk losses, on average, account for 1.44% of gross income.

The result for 2004 must reflect a low gross income year, Figures 1 and 2 do not show it as being a year of large losses.

Of interest is that the 2008 spike does not seem to have carried through to 2009. It can be seen in Figure 6 that effects carry through to 2009Qu1 but no further.

0

.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2009i2008i2007i2006i2005i2004i

1.36

1.621.56

1.14

1.34

1.73Average of €1.44 per €100 Gross Income

Page 5: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

5

Table 2 Overall Summary of ORX Data past 12 quarters

Table 2 has the same structure as Table 1, but from a quarterly perspective rather than annual. There does seem to be a trend of Qu4 generally being the worst in the year for gross loss amount, but 2009Qu1 provides an exception. indicating that perhaps 2008Qu4 and 2009Qu1 was the peak of the financial crisis from an operational risk perspective, This information can be seen graphically in Figures 4 and 5 below.

These 12 quarters account for 60% of the total number of losses and the total gross loss amount since 1 January 2004. If we include the major Corporate Finance losses of 2002 & 2003 then a different picture emerges.

The average € gross loss per event is very volatile with the range of €512,199 to €174,370 being 3x the low figure. Interestingly the high and the low are either side of year-end 2007. The average for this period is approximately €300,000 per event, for 2004-2006 the average is €285,000. Apparently not much change between the two sets of data, however, the results of some litigation still has to feed through into the 2007-2009 data.

Overall Summary of ORX Data

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 Qu1 Qu2 Qu3 Qu4 Qu1 Qu2 Qu3 Qu4 Qu1 Qu2 Qu3 Qu4

Total Number of 5,963 5,613 5,491 6,886 8,092 7,706 8,034 10,996 7,495 7,016 5,915 6,627 Loss Events

Total Gross Loss 1,309 1,586 1,690 3,527 1,411 1,424 1,702 3,617 3,307 2,056 1,625 2,121 (€Mn)

Average Loss per 219,520 282,558 307,776 512,199 174,370 184,791 211,850 328,938 441,227 293,044 274,725 320,054 Event (€)

Page 6: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

6

Figure 4: Total Number of Events for past 12 Quarters

Figure 5: Total Gross Loss Amount for past 12 Quarters (€Mn)

Figure 6: Gross Loss / €100 Gross Income for past 12 Quarters (€)

Figure 5 shows the total gross loss amount on a quarterly basis, as reported in Table 2. The volatility is more transparent in the figure than in the Table.

For 2007 and 2008 the last quarter accounts for nearly 45% of losses being reported. The picture for 2009 is obscured by the relatively large amount reported in Qu1.

The loss amount for 2008Qu4 is dominated by two events over €200Mn while 2009Qu1 has five. This indicates the influence of Low Frequency High Impact events.

Figure 6 shows the total gross loss amount per €100 of gross income. The average for this period compares favourably with the Figure 3 period average of €1.44.

Some of the spikes may reflect the booking of operational risk losses as opposed to particularly low gross incomes. By comparison, the strong gross income in 2009 helped to generate ratios at the lower end of the range.

Some of the volatility, in comparison to Figure 3, is due to displaying the results on a quarterly, as opposed to annual, basis.

Figure 4 shows the total number of loss events on a quarterly basis, as reported in Table 2. The number of events for this period represents about 60% of the Total Number of Events since 1 January 2004.

The spike in 2008Qu4 is perhaps more obvious in the chart than in the table. The spike is about 37% higher than the prior quarter figures, which is also amongst the highest across these 12 quarters.

Also of interest is the relative decline in the number of events in 2009.

Overview of ORX data for the last 12 Quarters

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

i2009Qu3i2009Qu1i2008Qu3i2008Qu1i2007Qu3i2007Qu1

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

i2009Qu3i2009Qu1i2008Qu3i2008Qu1i2007Qu3i2007Qu1

0

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

i2009Qu3i2009Qu1i2008Qu3i2008Qu1i2007Qu3i2007Qu1

5,9635,613 5,491

6,886

8,0927,706

8,034

10,996

7,4947,016

5,9156,627

1,3091,586

1,690

3,527

1,411 1,424

1,702

3,617

3,307

2,056

1,625

2,121

0.92

1.15

1.40

2.95

1.13 1.15 1.21

3.13

2.02

1.011.19 1.28

Total Number of Events 85,834

Total Gross Loss €25,375Mn

Average of €1.39 per €100 Gross Income

Page 7: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

7

Figure 7: Distribution of Number of Events by Size

ORX data by Size of Gross Loss

Figure 8: Distribution of Total Gross Loss by Size

Figure 7 shows the number of loss event segmented by size of loss. The size segments have been selected by “feel” as opposed to statistical significance.

Given the degree of granularity in the size segments there does not appear to be any significant difference between 2009 and the data for 2004-2008. The reduction in the €20k - <€100k shows as an increase in the €100k - <€500k segment, indicating a small increase in the size of relatively high frequency low impact losses.

Figure 8 shows the total gross loss for each of the size loss segments.

With the reference data set being composed of events recognised in 2004-2008 the large losses from Corporate Finance in 2002 and 2003 do not show.

The chart shows an increase in the total values of losses in the largest loss segment. When interpreted with Figure 7 the implication is that the average size of these large losses is increasing. This segment accounts for 55% of 2009 losses, but only 48% of 2004-2008.

The other segments all show a reduction in 2009 data in comparison with 2004-2008. The biggest changes are in the €20k - <€100k 9% vs. 11% and €1,000k - <€5,000k 13% vs. 15%.

Results from current litigation will be reported to ORX in the future and may affect the 2004-2008 benchmark data as much as, or more than, the 2009 results.

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

0.0%

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80.0%

2004-2008

2009QU1-4

€10000k+€5000k-<€10000k€1000-<€5000k€500k-<€1000k€100k-<€500k€20k-<€100k

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2004-2008

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2004-2008

2009QU1-4

€10000k+€5000k-<€10000k€1000-<€5000k€500k-<€1000k€100k-<€500k€20k-<€100k

Page 8: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

8

Figure 9: Distribution of Number of Loss Events by Region2004-2008 & 2009Q1-4

2004-2008

2009Q1-4

Regional Perspective

Figure 9 shows the distribution of the number of events across the regions. Members report country codes linked to each individual event. These country codes are then mapped to regions for reporting back to ORX Members. This supports anonymity.

The region “Other” is composed of Africa, Central and South America and the Caribbean, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The geographic distribution of events mirrors the locations where Members are conducting business, not just where their headquarters are located.

When comparing 2009 with the benchmark 2004-2008 data the reduction in the size of ‘North America’ and the increase in size of “Others” is apparent. An influential factor may be that a number of new ORX Members have significant business in “Others” region.

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

Other9%

North America48%

Western Europe43%

2009Q1-4 %

North America 9,840 36.4%

Western Europe 12,139 44.9%

Others 5,074 18.8%

Total 27,053

2004-2008 %

North America 55,445 48.1%

Western Europe 49,498 43.0%

Others 10,297 8.9%

Total 115,240

Other19%

North America36%

Western Europe45%

Page 9: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

9

Figure 10: Distribution of Gross Loss Events by Region2004-2008 & 2009Q1-4

2004-2008

2009Q1-4

Regional Perspective

Figure 10 shows the distribution of the total gross loss across the regions.

There are dramatic differences between the benchmark period of 2004-2008 and 2009. In particular is the noticeable reduction in the contribution from North America, down from 49% to 26%. At the same time ‘Others’ increases from 8% to 20% and Western Europe from 43% to 54%. As mentioned above part of this increase in ‘Others’ may be the result of the location of business activities of some of the newer Members of ORX.

It will be interesting, in the years ahead, to see where the losses arising from pending litigation get posted and their impact on the relative share.

Even though this reference data set does not include the Corporate Finance North American losses from 2002 and 2003 the message would be the same.

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

2009Q1-4 €Mn %

North America 2,321 25.5%

Western Europe 4,952 54.3%

Others 1,837 20.2%

Total 9,110

2004-2008 €Mn %

North America 16,009 49.4%

Western Europe 13,859 42.8%

Others 2,523 7.8%

Total 32,391

Other8%

North America49%

Western Europe43%

North America26%

Western Europe54%

Other20%

Page 10: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

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Table 3a: Distribution of Frequency of Loss by Business Line by Event Type 2004-2008

Heat Map of Event Frequency

Table 3a shows the distribution of the number of loss events across the Business Lines and Event Types and their intersections. The shading acts as a heat map and represents the contribution to the total number of losses.For the 2004-2008 benchmark period the top three Business Lines are Retail Banking, Trading & Sales and Commercial Banking.The top three Event Types are:• Execution, Delivery and Process Management,• External Fraud, and• Clients Products & Business Practices.Although these three Event Types account for 85% of the number of event the degree of concentration is not as great as for the Business Lines.

1%-<5% 5%-10% >10%

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

Nos of Events Internal External Employment Clients Disasters Technology & Execution, Malicious Total % of Fraud Fraud Practices & Products & & Public Infrastructure Delivery & Damage Total Workplace Business Safety Failures Process Safety Practices Management

Corporate Finance 14 154 148 275 17 11 406 0 1,025 0.72%

Trading & Sales 96 773 558 709 19 786 11,845 0 14,786 10.39%

Retail Banking 3,843 43,528 8,368 7,797 1,052 1,258 19,875 204 85,925 60.39%

Commercial Banking 180 4,607 336 2,054 64 265 5,358 5 12,869 9.04%

Clearing 34 709 65 86 3 145 1,324 0 2,366 1.66%

Agency Services 30 310 187 264 17 120 5,941 0 6,869 4.83%

Asset Management 49 73 183 584 12 90 2,716 0 3,707 2.61%

Retail Brokerage 210 359 701 2,586 12 69 1,701 0 5,638 3.96%

Private Banking 124 408 162 1,637 20 80 2,843 1 5,275 3.71%

Corporate Items 45 260 1,310 300 232 112 924 7 3,190 2.24%

Mutliple Lines 24 162 26 108 17 34 269 3 643 0.45%

Total 4,649 51,343 12,044 16,400 1,465 2,970 53,202 220 142,293

% of Total 3.27% 36.0836.08% 8.46% 11.53% 1.03% 2.09% 37.39% 0.15%

Page 11: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

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Table 3b: Distribution of Frequency of Loss by Business Line by Event Type 2009Q1-4

Heat Map of Event Frequency

Table 3b shows the distribution of the number of loss events across the Business Lines and Event Types and their intersections. The shading acts as a heat map and represents the contribution to the total number of losses.

For 2009 the top three Business Lines are Retail Banking, Commercial Banking and Trading & Sales.

These three Business Lines account for 78% of the number of losses, a slight reduction in concentration from the 2004-2008 set (80%). Some of the growth in number of losses can be seen in Agency Services 5.5% vs. 4.8% and Private Banking 4.7% vs. 3.7%.

The top three Event Types are still:• Execution, Delivery and Process Management,• External Fraud, and• Clients Products & Business Practices.However in 2009 these three Event Types account for 80% vs. 85%. Amongst the other Event Types Employment Practices & Workplace Safety has seen an increased share in 2009 (11% vs. 8.5%).The overall interpretation seems to be one of stability and consistency with the benchmark period of 2004-2008 with a slight shift from Execution to Client related events.

1%-<5% 5%-10% >10%

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

Nos of Events Internal External Employment Clients Disasters Technology & Execution, Malicious Total % of Fraud Fraud Practices & Products & & Public Infrastructure Delivery & Damage Total Workplace Business Safety Failures Process Safety Practices Management

Corporate Finance 1 25 18 55 14 0 56 0 169 0.62%

Trading & Sales 11 142 105 135 3 114 1,874 0 2,384 8.81%

Retail Banking 692 7,233 2,395 1,672 203 170 3,764 56 16,185 59.83%

Commercial Banking 26 810 86 541 18 32 1,147 0 2,660 9.83%

Clearing 5 186 7 10 0 23 274 0 505 1.87%

Agency Services 10 231 13 60 1 13 1,158 0 1,486 5.49%

Asset Management 7 7 23 124 2 17 506 0 686 2.54%

Retail Brokerage 42 57 96 546 1 12 360 0 1,114 4.12%

Private Banking 28 84 30 423 1 26 668 0 1,260 4.66%

Corporate Items 5 36 229 53 29 36 149 1 538 1.99%

Mutliple Lines 4 16 7 16 1 5 17 0 66 0.24%

Total 831 8,827 3,009 3,635 273 448 9,973 57 27,053

% of Total 3.07% 36.032.63% 11.12% 13.44% 1.01% 1.66% 36.86% 0.21%

Page 12: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

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Table 4a: Distribution of Gross of Loss by Business Line by Event Type 2004-2008

Heat Map of Gross Loss Amount

Table 4a shows the distribution of the total gross loss amount across the Business Lines and Event Types and their intersections. The shading acts as a heat map and represents the contribution to the total gross loss amount.

For the 2004-2008 period the top three Business lines are Retail Banking, Trading & Sales and Commercial Banking.

These three Business Lines account for 67% of the gross loss amount. The gross loss amount is less concentrated than the number of losses. If the few but large Corporate Finance Losses of 2002 and 2003 are included then Corporate Finance is elevated from fifth position into the top three. Comparison with Table 3a shows that Retail Banking is dominated by relatively High Frequency Low Impact losses.

The top three Event Types are:• Execution, Delivery and Process Management,• External Fraud, and• Clients Products & Business Practices.Although these three Event Types account for 85% of the number of event the degree of concentration is greater than for the Business Lines.

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

€ Mn Internal External Employment Clients Disasters Technology & Execution, Malicious Total % of Fraud Fraud Practices & Products & & Public Infrastructure Delivery & Damage Total Workplace Business Safety Failures Process Safety Practices Management

Corporate Finance 10 624 49 959 1 6 758 0 2,407 5.80%

Trading & Sales 1,617 1,083 195 1,636 6 115 4,726 0 9,378 22.60%

Retail Banking 774 3,211 1,000 3,503 147 214 3,499 16 12,364 29.79%

Commercial Banking 283 1,589 54 1,776 7 158 2,077 0 5,943 14.32%

Clearing 8 56 10 311 1 22 199 0 606 1.46%

Agency Services 21 32 21 428 5 14 1,021 0 1,543 3.72%

Asset Management 185 24 89 878 18 10 696 0 1,900 4.58%

Retail Brokerage 139 38 163 651 1 6 210 0 1,209 2.91%

Private Banking 109 253 45 987 2 6 356 0 1,758 4.24%

Corporate Items 69 115 238 437 108 13 654 1 1,635 3.94%

Mutliple Lines 27 386 40 2,051 6 29 219 0 2,758 6.65%

Total 3,241 7,411 1,905 13,618 301 591 14,416 17 41,501

% of Total 7.81% 36.017.86% 4.59% 32.81% 0.73% 1.43% 34.74% 0.04%

1%-<5% 5%-10% >10%

Page 13: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

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Table 4b: Distribution of Gross of Loss by Business Line by Event Type 2009Q1-4

Heat Map of Gross Loss Amount

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

€ Mn Internal External Employment Clients Disasters Technology & Execution, Malicious Total % of Fraud Fraud Practices & Products & & Public Infrastructure Delivery & Damage Total Workplace Business Safety Failures Process Safety Practices Management

Corporate Finance 0 540 4 369 1 0 228 0 1,141 12.53%

Trading & Sales 119 772 39 341 1 17 1,115 0 2,404 26.38%

Retail Banking 99 672 224 442 19 22 624 0 2,105 23.11%

Commercial Banking 46 365 17 142 3 114 303 0 990 10.87%

Clearing 1 20 1 264 0 4 32 0 323 3.54%

Agency Services 14 9 1 22 0 1 220 0 267 2.93%

Asset Management 5 1 4 117 18 2 111 0 256 2.81%

Retail Brokerage 21 7 18 74 0 0 32 0 152 1.67%

Private Banking 28 185 7 516 0 1 63 0 801 8.79%

Corporate Items 0 7 43 37 2 4 107 0 201 2.21%

Mutliple Lines 0 343 14 107 0 1 5 0 470 5.16%

Total 334 2,921 371 2,430 44 166 2,839 5 9,110

% of Total 3.67% 36.032.06% 4.07% 26.68% 0.48% 1.83% 31.16% 0.06%

Table 4b shows the distribution of the total gross loss amount across the Business Lines and Event Types and their intersections. The shading acts as a heat map and represents the contribution to the total gross loss amount.

For 2009 the top three Business Lines are Retail Banking, Trading & Sales and Corporate Finance. These three Business Lines account for 62% of the gross loss amount, a slight reduction in concentration from the 2004-2008 set (67%). Corporate Finance now contributes 12.5% vs. 5.8% for 2004-2008. Following a comparison with Table 3 a & b, it is deduced that this change in ranking is due to Low Frequency High Impact losses, especially due to External Fraud.

One of the other changes, in comparison with 2004-2008 is the growth in contribution for Private Banking at 9% up from 4%.

The top three Event Types are still:

• External Fraud• Execution, Delivery and Process Management, and• Clients Products & Business Practices.

However in 2009 these three Event Types account for 90% vs. 85% in 2004-2008. External fraud has seen a dramatic increase to 32% up from 18% in 2004-2008.

In contrast Internal fraud has seen a big reduction from 8% to 3.7% in 2009.

The dramatic interactions between the Business Lines and Event Types are:

External Fraud and Corporate Finance Clients, Products & Business. Practices and Private BankingExternal Fraud and Trading & Sales Execution, Delivery & Process Management and Trading & SalesExternal Fraud and Retail Banking Execution, Delivery & Process Management and Retail Banking

These six combinations account for 47% of the total gross loss amount.

1%-<5% 5%-10% >10%

Page 14: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

14

Table 5a: Business Line Risk Ranking 2004-2008

Business Line Performance

Business Line Average Loss per Event Business Line Gross Loss/ €100 Gross Income

€ Ranking € Ranking

Corporate Finance 2,348,769 1 Trading & Sales 3.07 1

Trading & Sales 634,245 2 Corporate Finance 1.99 2

Asset Management 512,597 3 Private Banking 1.94 3

Commercial Banking 461,798 4 Agency Services 1.86 4

Private Banking 333,263 5 Asset Management 1.52 5

Clearing 256,162 6 Commercial Banking 1.25 6

Agency Services 224,643 7 Retail Brokerage 1.09 7

Retail Brokerage 214,363 8 Clearing 1.07 8

Retail Banking 143,892 9 Retail Banking 0.99 9

Business Line Average Loss per Event Business Line Gross Loss/ €100 Gross Income

€ Ranking € Ranking

Corporate Finance 6,752,175 1 Private Banking 4.12 1

Trading & Sales 1,008,189 2 Corporate Finance 3.59 2

Clearing 638,918 3 Trading & Sales 2.34 3

Private Banking 635,612 4 Clearing 2.13 4

Asset Management 373,694 5 Agency Services 1.37 5

Commercial Banking 372,330 6 Asset Management 1.25 6

Agency Services 179,789 7 Retail Brokerage 0.78 7

Retail Brokerage 136,257 8 Retail Banking 0.70 8

Retail Banking 130,071 9 Commercial Banking 0.70 9

Tables 5 a and b show two risk rankings for the Business Lines. Corporate Centre and Multiple Lines of Business have been excluded as they do not have Gross Income.

For the Average Loss per Event not every business line shows an increase in 2009 over 2004-2008. Business Lines at the top tend to be dominated by Low Frequency High Impact Losses (e.g. Corporate Finance) and those at the bottom are dominated by High Frequency Low Impact Losses (e.g. Retail Banking). Comparing 2009 with the benchmark, 2004-2008, there are some dramatic changes. For example the average loss size for Corporate Finance in 2009 is almost 3x 2004-2008. Clearing shows an increase of a similar size. Meanwhile Trading & Sales and Private Banking are closer to 2x. Retail Brokerage has seen a 35% reduction while Commercial Banking and Agency Services both have reductions of about 20%.

For the Gross Loss per €100 Gross Income, this ratio is as much about changes in Gross Income as it is about the changes in patterns of losses. A low ratio indicates that operational risk losses have had a lower impact on Gross Income. When considering that expected losses should be met from the income stream then this metric shows some interesting results. For example Private Banking and Corporate Finance are 2x less robust in 2009 than 2004-2008. In comparison Commercial Banking has significantly improved its position and is nearly 2x more robust. Trading & Sales, although still in the top three for the worst ratio is more robust in 2009 than 2004-2008.

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

Table 5b: Business Line Risk Ranking 2009Q1-4

Value ValueRank Rank

Page 15: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

15

Figure 11a: All Business Lines

Gross Income (€Mn)

Gross Loss (€Mn)

Number of Losses

Performance in the Financial Crisis

The next few figures indicate how the financial crisis has affected the operational risk environment for Members of ORX. The charts are based on quarterly data from 2006 on the assumption that the crisis began to make itself felt in 2007.

Figure 11a shows a stack chart across “All” Business Lines and Event Types on a quarterly basis. The components are Gross Income, Gross Loss amount and the Number of Losses. The material is presented as a chart rather than a series of ratios due to some of the difficulties in interpreting some of the ratios and whether change is due to the numerator or denominator.

For Gross Income the dip in 2008 and recovery in 2009 become evident.

The dramatic increases in total Gross Loss at the end of 2007 and 2008, and beginning of 2009 replicate the Figure 5.

The spike in the Number of Losses in 2008Qu4 was also shown in Figure 4.

The rest of the charts in this series drilldown into the Level 2 Business Lines so that their relative contributions can be seen.

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

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Page 16: ORX Operational Risk Report June 2010

16

Figure 11b: Wholesale and Non-Wholesale BankingGross Income (€Mn)

Gross Loss (€Mn)

Number of Losses

Performance in the Financial Crisis

Figure 11b has plots for Wholesale and Non-Wholesale Banking. For this exercise Wholesale Banking is assumed to be composed of Corporate Finance, Trading & Sales and Commercial Banking.

For this exercise Non-Wholesale Banking is composed of:• Retail Banking • Private Banking • Asset Management• Clearing • Agency Services and Retail BrokerageThis split between Wholesale and Non-Wholesale shows that the volatility in the Gross Income and Gross Loss Amount seems to come from the Wholesale Bank. Both parts of the Bank suffer in increases in Gross Loss in 2007Qu4, 2008 and 2009Qu1, but it is more dramatic for the Wholesale Bank.

In comparison it is the Non-Wholesale Bank that shows an increase in the number of losses, beginning in 2008.

© Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) 2010

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Wholesale Non-Wholesale