organic historical comparison 2-5-11
DESCRIPTION
A comparison of 2008 Organic row crop yields (based on a detailed USDA survey) with historical crop yieldsTRANSCRIPT
A Comparison of 2008 Organic Row Crop Yields to Historical Yield Trends
Steve Savage, Ph.D.
2/5/2011
1
The Premise of This Study
In 2008, the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the USDA (USDA-NASS) conducted a detailed survey of US Organic agriculture The yields (on a per harvested acre basis) for Organic crops are
generally lower than the overall average It is difficult to put these yield differences into perspective
For most crops, yields have been increasing steadily over time based on a wide variety of technical advances Some of these advances are available to Organic row crop growers
(conventional breeding gains, equipment improvements…) Some of these advances are not available to Organic row crop growers
(new and effective pesticides, precision fertilization technologies, biotech traits…)
This analysis looks at how Organic row crop yields in 2008 compare to historical trends in yield as a way to quantify what lower Organic yields actually “mean” from an agronomic and food supply point of view
The Analysis Process
For this analysis, the Organic survey data were compared to the historical acreage and yield data available through QuickStats 1, also from USDA-NASS
Not all comparisons were feasible due to
Missing or confidentiality-deleted data points
Likely differences in irrigated vs un-irrigated production in Organic vs Overall
Very poor fits for yield trends
Genetic differences (e.g. oil vs confectionary sunflowers, wild vs normal rice…)
Analysis was conducted for Soybeans, Wheat (winter, spring, and durum), Corn (grain and silage), Flax, Oats, Barley, Dry Beans, Prosso Millet and Sorghum
Together these crops total 230 million acres of total US crop acreage and 726,000 Organic acres (0.32%)
3
A Summary of Row Crops Data for Organic and Total
Crops% Organic
Acres% Organic Production
% Organic Value
Total US Acres x 1000
Rye 3.43 3.12 3.35 269Flaxseed 4.11 2.79 5.42 340Proso Millet 2.11 1.50 2.95 460Oats 2.94 2.52 3.19 1,400Dry Edible Beans 0.86 0.69 0.93 1,445Durum Wheat 0.86 0.51 0.96 2,574Barley 1.25 0.88 1.18 3,779Corn Silage 0.42 0.33 5,965Sorghum 0.11 0.05 0.09 7,271Spring Wheat 0.69 0.46 0.83 13,517Winter Wheat 0.51 0.31 0.58 39,608Soybeans 0.13 0.09 0.17 74,681Corn 0.18 0.13 0.23 78,570
Row Crops Above 0.32 0.18 0.32 229,879
Methodology and Key
5
US Soybean Yield Trend
y = 0.4993x - 960.02
R2 = 0.7606
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 66% of Average, equivalent of 1979 yield, 29 year difference
Key (for all subsequent slides as well)
2008 overall yield from region/crop
2008 Organic yield for region/crop plotted at the year for which the overall trend line was at that level of yield (corrected for 2008 yield deviation from the trend line)
Annual overall yields over time
Line fit to historic yield data (equation and R2 above)
In this case, the US Organic soy yield in 2008 was equivalent to that from 1979 or 29 years earlier. This is adjusted for the fact that the overall yield was below trend line in 2008
National Level Data
US Major Row Crops
US Soybean Yield Trend
y = 0.4993x - 960.02
R2 = 0.7606
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 66% of Average, equivalent of 1979 yield, 29 year difference
US Corn Yield Trend
y = 2.045x - 3953.3
R2 = 0.7498
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 71% of Average, equivalent of 1986.5 yield, 21.5 year difference
484 Organic farms, 93,372 acres
875 Organic farms, 202,968 acres
1,331 Organic farms, 98.113 acres
2,146 Organic farms, 143432 acres
US Winter Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.3088x - 575.21
R2 = 0.4929
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 60% of Average, equivalent of 1950 yield, 58 year difference
Spring Wheat US
y = 0.3618x - 687.08
R2 = 0.3567
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 47% of Average, equivalent of 1951 yield, 57 year difference
Other Row Crops (1 of 2)
Oats US
y = 0.3677x - 675.17
R2 = 0.3479
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 86% of Average, equivalent of 1983 yield, 25 year difference
85 Organic farms, 13,958 acres 1,040 Organic farms, 41,016 acres
Barley US
y = 0.5938x - 1127.1
R2 = 0.5775
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 70% of Average, equivalent of 1975 yield, 33 year difference
578 Organic farms, 47,227 acres
Dry Edible Beans US
y = 0.1032x - 190.18
R2 = 0.529
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
CW
T/A
cre
Organic Yield 81% of Average, equivalent of 1976 yield, 32 year difference
127 Organic farms, 12,407 acres
Flaxseed US
y = 0.2835x - 549.12
R2 = 0.4417
0
5
10
15
20
25
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 83% of Average, equivalent of 1985 yield, 23 year difference
Other Row Crops (2 of 2)
Corn For Silage US
y = 0.2024x - 388.58
R2 = 0.6621
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
To
ns
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 80% of Average, equivalent of 1991 yield, 17year difference
664 Organic farms, 24,871 acres
Durum Wheat US
y = 0.2521x - 470.52
R2 = 0.1633
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 59% of Average, equivalent of 1950 yield, 58 year difference
40 Organic farms, 22,038 acres
Prosso Millet US
y = 0.3633x - 714.82
R2 = 0.1385
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 71% of Average, equivalent of 1996 yield, 12 year difference
42 Organic farms, 9,698 acres
Sorghum US
y = 0.5488x - 1028.8
R2 = 0.1556
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 52% of Average, equivalent of 1944 yield, 64 year difference
46 Organic farms, 7,797 acres
State Level Data
Winter Wheat (1 of 2)
Michigan Winter Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.8992x - 1736.9
R2 = 0.5836
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 77% of Average, equivalent of 1991 yield, 17 year difference
New York Winter Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.572x - 1088.5
R2 = 0.5467
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 66% of Average, equivalent of 1973 yield, 35 year difference
North Dakota Winter Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.7327x - 1426.6
R2 = 0.5068
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 74% of Average, equivalent of 1992 yield, 16 year difference
75 Organic farms,4,982 acres
44 Organic farms,2,417 acres 12 Organic farms,3,081 acres
Ohio Winter Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.798x - 1534
R2 = 0.5711
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 53% of Average, equivalent of 1968 yield, 40 year difference
68 Organic farms, 2,770 acres
Winter Wheat (2 of 2)
29 Organic farms, 36,829 acres
Wisconsin Winter Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.703x - 1346.6
R2 = 0.4555
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 57% of Average, equivalent of 1967 yield, 57 year difference
81 Organic farms, 3,032 acres
Utah Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.4573x - 872.07
R2 = 0.4739
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 39% of Average, equivalent of 1946 yield, 62 year difference
30 Organic farms, 16,815 acres
Montana Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.3825x - 728.25
R2 = 0.2269
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 39% of Average, equivalent of 1946 yield, 62 year difference
Spring Wheat
North Dakota Spring Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.421x - 807.46
R2 = 0.318
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 55% of Average, equivalent of 1967 yield, 41year difference
South Dakota Spring Wheat Yield Trend
y = 0.6935x - 1352.1
R2 = 0.567
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 62% of Average, equivalent of 1986 yield, 22 year difference
41 Organic farms, 6,783 acres 92 Organic farms, 20,867 acres
Spring Wheat MN
y = 0.4615x - 878.5
R2 = 0.205
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 72% of Average, equivalent of 1979 yield, 29 year difference
113 Organic farms, 9,858 acres
Soybeans (1 of 2)
Indiana Soybean Yield Trend
y = 0.4907x - 937.48
R2 = 0.5659
30
35
40
45
50
55
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 81% of Average, equivalent of 1989 yield, 19 year difference
Missouri Soybean Yield Trend
y = 0.4784x - 921.27
R2 = 0.5286
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 61% of Average, equivalent of 1976 yield, 32 year difference
Nebraska Soybean Yield Trend
y = 0.6919x - 1340.4
R2 = 0.6935
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 70% of Average, equivalent of 1987 yield, 21 year difference
New York Soybean Yield Trend
y = 0.8723x - 1708.4
R2 = 0.6911
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 75% of Average, equivalent of 1996 yield, 13 year difference
18 Organic farms, 895 acres11 Organic farms, 593 acres
63 Organic farms, 5,828 acres 92 Organic farms, 6,775 acres
Soybeans (2 of 2)
Ohio Soybean Yield Trend
y = 0.3994x - 757.68
R2 = 0.4023
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 75% of Average, equivalent of 1980 yield, 28 year difference
Pennsylvania Soybean Yield Trend
y = 0.4107x - 782.98
R2 = 0.3989
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 84% of Average, equivalent of 1992 yield, 16 year difference
54 Organic farms, 1,386 acres105 Organic farms, 5,790 acres
Corn (1 of 2)
California Corn Yield Trend
y = 1.6931x - 3216.7
R2 = 0.8008
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 88% of Average, equivalent of 1996 yield, 12.5 year difference
Nebraska Corn Yield Trend
y = 2.0048x - 3866
R2 = 0.723
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 67% of Average, equivalent of 1982 yield, 26 year difference
South Dakota Corn Yield Trend
y = 2.5427x - 4978.6
R2 = 0.7732
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 68% of Average, equivalent of 1992 yield, 16 year difference
30 Organic farms, 2,694 acres
8 Organic farms, 1,751 acres 74 Organic farms, 8,991 acres
Wisconsin Corn Yield Trend
y = 1.7286x - 3326.3
R2 = 0.609
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 65% of Average, equivalent of 1979 yield, 29 year difference
493 Organic farms, 24,304 acres
Corn (2 of 2)
Michigan Corn Yield Trend
y = 1.744x - 3364.8
R2 = 0.678
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 75% of Average, equivalent of 1988 yield, 20 year difference
North Dakota Corn Yield Trend
y = 2.1605x - 4217
R2 = 0.6918
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 47% of Average, equivalent of 1978 yield, 30 year difference
New York Corn Yield Trend
y = 1.5335x - 2951.7
R2 = 0.6945
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
shel
s/A
cre
Organic Yield 84% of Average, equivalent of 1995 yield, 13 year difference
12 Organic farms, 1,189 acres
143 Organic farms, 10,612 acres
140 Organic farms, 13,748 acres
Corn For Silage
Corn For Silage NY
y = 0.1626x - 309.07
R2 = 0.66
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
To
ns
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 74% of Average, equivalent of 1981 yield, 27 year difference
Corn For Silage IA
y = 0.2327x - 447.38
R2 = 0.5294
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
To
ns
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 71% of Average, equivalent of 1983 yield, 25 year difference
Corn For Silage IN
y = 0.2327x - 447.38
R2 = 0.5294
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
To
ns
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 84% of Average, equivalent of 1992 yield, 16 year difference
26 Organic farms, 304 acres
Corn For Silage MN
y = 0.2071x - 399.38
R2 = 0.4416
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
To
ns
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 83% of Average, equivalent of 1995 yield, 13 year difference
63 Organic farms, 2,998 acres
87 Organic farms, 2,995 acres 47 Organic farms, 904acres
Other Crops and the State Level (1 of 2)
Barley PA
y = 0.7367x - 1404.4
R2 = 0.7096
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 85% of Average, equivalent of 1993 yield, 15 year difference
25 Organic farms, 499 acres
Durum Wheat MT
y = 0.2355x - 445.11
R2 = 0.1067
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 89% of Average, equivalent of 1995 yield, 13 year difference
22 Organic farms, 19,604 acres
Durum Wheat ND
y = 0.1401x - 250.69
R2 = 0.0494
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 67% of Average, equivalent of 1935 yield, 58 year difference
11 Organic farms, 1,589 acres
Flax ND
y = 0.3177x - 617.33
R2 = 0.4752
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 68% of Average, equivalent of 1987 yield, 21 year difference
59 Organic farms, 12,203 acres
Other Crops and the State Level (2 of 2)
Sorghum KS
y = 0.5488x - 1028.8
R2 = 0.1556
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bu
sh
els
/Ac
re
Organic Yield 52% of Average, equivalent of 1944 yield, 64 year difference
19 Organic farms, 2,401 acres