oregon’s changing demographics oregon commision for the blind december 13, 2007 richard bjelland...
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Oregon’s Changing Demographics
Oregon Commision for the Blind
December 13, 2007
Richard Bjelland (503) 981-4076 [email protected]
Changing Demographics:Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
• Are demographic changes taking place?– Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?
Presentation Definitions
• A person of Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity may be of any race
• Minority represents any of the following:– An individual of any race other than white only– A multiracial individual– A person of Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity
• Non-Minority or “white only” – A white only non-Hispanic or Latino person
Race Percent
White 8.0%
Black 1.9%
American Indian/Alaska Native 14.6%
Asian 1.0%
Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander 9.5%
Some other race 97.1%
Two or more races 31.1%
Hispanics as a Percent of RaceUnited States - Census 2000
1980 1990 2000
Percent of Population
Percent of Population
Percent of Population
Percent Change
Percent of Increase
Percent Change
Percent of Increase
Total Population 100% 100% 100% 9.8% 13.2%
Hispanics 6.4% 9.0% 12.5% 53.0% 34.9% 57.9% 39.6%
White* 79.6% 75.6% 69.1% 4.4% 35.5% 3.4% 19.6%
Black* 11.5% 11.7% 12.1% 11.9% 14.0% 16.2% 14.5%
American Indian & Eskimo* 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 26.6% 1.7% 15.3% 0.8%
Asian and HPI* 1.5% 2.8% 3.7% 99.7% 15.7% 50.3% 10.7%
Other* 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% -62.8% -1.9% 87.8% 0.7%
Two or more races* 1.6% 14.1%
U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.
* Non-Hispanic only; in 1980 and 1990 "Asians" includes Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders.
The 2000 Census also marked the first time that respondents were allowed to select more than one racial category. On earlier Censuses, multiracial individuals were asked to chose a single racial category, or respond as Some Other Race.
U.S. Hispanic Population and Race Distribution for Non-Hispanic Population
Demographic Changes - 1980 to 2000
1980-1990 1990-2000
Source of US Population Growth 2000 to 2050
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 - 2050 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030 2030 - 2040 2040 - 2050
Hispanic Other race alone White aloneSource: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, Table 094
Primary Sources of California's Population Growth 1980 - 2000
51.6%
20.8%
5.1%
23.9%
79.7%
-7.5%
2.2%
25.3%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Hispanics White Black Asian
Pe
rce
nt
of
Po
pu
lati
on
Gro
wth
1980-1990 1990-2000
White, Black, and Asian represent non-Hispanics of those races
Asian includes Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
White in 2000 includes Two or more race individuals
Hispanics may be of any race
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.
Increase Growth Rate
1990 2000 1990-2000 1990-2000
Not H or L 22,072,083 22,905,092 833,009 3.8%
Hispanic or Latino
7,687,938 10,966,556 3,278,618 42.6%
Total 29,760,021 33,871,648 4,111,627 13.8%
Not H or L 74.2% 67.6% 20.3%
Hispanic or Latino
25.8% 32.4% 79.7%
Population
California Population Change
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1990 to 2000.
California Demographics• In 1970, 4 in 5 Californians were white;
now whites are in the minority – 44.5 %• Only one in three children in California’s
public schools is white; 45 % are Latino• In Los Angeles, only 10 % are white; 70 %
are Latino• District F in LAUSD has 60,000 students;
98 % are minorities; and contains Belmont High School - 5,500 students with a 40 % graduation rate
Education 101 - The Economist Print Edition, April 29th, 2004
1980 1990 20001990 to 2000
Increase
Minority 177,093 262,589 563,783 301,194
White not Hispanic 2,456,012 2,579,732 2,857,616 277,884
Total 2,633,105 2,842,321 3,421,399 579,078
% Minority 6.7% 9.2% 16.5% 52.0%
% White not Hispanic 93.3% 90.8% 83.5% 48.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.
Oregon Minority Population
Components of Annual Population Growth by Decade, 1950 – 2000Source: Portland State University’s Population Research Center
Oregon
Immigrants Disperse to New Growth States
Oregon’s Foreign Born as a percent of Total Population in 2000 - 8.5 %Percent change in the foreign-born population: 1990 -2000 - 108 %
44.6
27.3
18.8
5.9
1.7
1.6
Latin America
Asia
Europe
Northern America
Africa
Oceania
Percent Distribution of Oregon’s Foreign Born by Region
Births Total Hispanic Non-Hispanic % Hispanic
1981 42,974 1,146 41,828 2.7%
1991 42,458 3,278 39,180 7.7%
2001 45,318 7,903 37,415 17.4%
Deaths 2001
30,128 430 29,698 1.4%
2001 Natural
Increase15,190 7,473 7,717 49.2%
Oregon Vital Statistics Annual Report 2001 Volumes 1 & 2
Resident Births and Deaths in Oregon
1998 Birth Rates Per Thousand
• White Non-Hispanic 12.3• Asian and Pacific Islander 16.4• Black Non-Hispanic 18.2• Hispanic 24.3
U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services, National Vital Statistics Reports,
V. 38, No. 3
Population HouseholdsPersons per
HH
Not Hispanic or Latino 3,146,085 1,270,016 2.48
Hispanic or Latino 275,314 63,707 4.32
Total 3,421,399 1,333,723 2.57
Not Hispanic or Latino 92.0% 95.2%
Hispanic or Latino 8.0% 4.8%
Census 2000 - Oregon
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population - 2000.
Source of Oregon's Population Growth 1980 to 2005
59.1%
48.0% 47.4%
22.4%
28.1%
39.0%
18.5%
23.9%
13.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2005
% o
f G
row
th
White Hispanic NonHispanic Minority
Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Census 1980,1990, 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey
19802.5%
19904.0%
20008.0%1980
93.3% 19804.2%
199090.8%
19905.3%
200083.5%
20008.4%
Percent of Population Growth 2000-2005
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
Benton Clackamas Jackson Lane Marion Multnomah Washington YamhillPerc
ent o
f Gro
wth
White alone NH Hispanic NonHispanic Minority
70% of Oregon’s population live in these 8 counties
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey
Percent of Population Growth 2000-2005
47.4%
37.3%
70.3%
39.0%
45.3%
24.8%
13.6%17.5%
4.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Oregon 8 Counties 28 Counties
Perc
ent o
f pop
ulat
ion
grow
th
White alone Hispanic NonHispanic Minority
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey
Woodburn's Population by Ethnicity
81.8%
68.6%
49.9%
18.2%
31.4%
50.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1980 1990 2000
% o
f P
op
ula
tio
n
Not Hispanic or Latino Hispanic or Latino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.
Woodburn School District Students
15911479
13141251
2664
3562
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 2000 2005
October EnrollmentNot Hispanic or Latino Hispanic or Latino
44.0%
64.0%
73.1%
56.0% 36.0%
26.9%
Woodburn School District Demographics 1990 - 2005
1031
1251
539
21
868
1824
571
28
865
2664
572
42
791
3562
467
56
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Major Culture Hispanic Russian Other
Sep
tem
ber
En
rollm
ent
1990 1995 2000 2005
185 %
Oregon Public School Minority Enrollment
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Black Asian/OPI AIAN Hispanic
Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2004-2005
188 % Increase
51,094
Hispanic
Oregon Public School White Enrollment
370,000
380,000
390,000
400,000
410,000
420,000
430,000
440,000
450,000
460,000
1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2004-2005
-12% (46,080)
Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005
Race and Hispanic or Latino originTotal
population change*
Natural Increase Net International
MigrationTotal Births Deaths
TOTAL POPULATION 14,985,802 8,651,861 21,329,804 12,677,943 6,333,941
.One Race 14,304,500 8,048,543 20,649,216 12,600,673 6,256,173
..White 9,748,454 5,474,702 16,288,560 10,813,858 4,274,278
..Black or African American 2,204,470 1,710,544 3,236,557 1,526,013 493,542
..American Indian and Alaska Native 199,150 150,041 209,152 59,111 49,171
..Asian 2,098,350 682,925 878,407 195,482 1,415,274
..Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 54,076 30,331 36,540 6,209 23,908
.Two or more races 681,302 603,318 680,588 77,270 77,768
.Race alone or in combination:(1)
..White 10,370,378 6,039,297 16,917,720 10,878,423 4,331,515
..Black or African American 2,619,127 2,098,756 3,645,928 1,547,172 519,704
..American Indian and Alaska Native 228,539 164,497 267,035 102,538 63,893
..Asian 2,369,911 905,818 1,124,585 218,767 1,463,859
..Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 82,876 46,839 62,160 15,321 36,279
HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN 7,380,846 4,123,268 4,685,371 562,103 3,257,595
WHITE ALONE, NOT HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN 2,789,441 1,601,513 11,888,320 10,286,807 1,188,483
HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN % of Change 49.3% 47.7% 22.0% 4.4% 51.4%
WHITE ALONE, NOT HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN % 18.6% 18.5% 55.7% 81.1% 18.8%
(1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Total Change
Hispanic Change
White NH Change
Hispanic % of Change
White NH % of Change
Total Population 2,866,428 1,420,469 515,736 49.6% 18.0%
.Under 18 years 227,852 417,063 (297,921) 183.0% NA
18 to 44 years 225,011 541,924 (576,050) 240.8% NA
45 to 64 years 2,063,055 357,343 1,258,720 17.3% 61.0%
.65 years and over 350,510 104,139 130,987 29.7% 37.4%
.85 years and over 141,383 15,229 103,850 10.8% 73.5%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Estimated U.S. Population Change July 1, 2003 to July 1, 2004
NA - Not applicable since White Non-Hispanic population change was negative
Changing Demographics:Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
• Are demographic changes taking place?– Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?– Changes in Age and Sex Distributions?
Child-bearingyears
Child-bearingyears
Changing Demographics:Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
• Are demographic changes taking place?– Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?– Changes in Age and Sex Distributions?– Changes in Household composition?
Oregon Households Percentage by Type 1960 to 2006
16.2% 19.2%23.5% 25.3% 26.1% 28.0%
1.5%2.5%
6.0%6.7% 8.1%
8.0%35.5%
36.5%
34.9%36.0%
35.0%35.1%3.6%
4.7%
7.0%7.7%
8.6%8.9%
43.3%37.1%
28.6%24.4% 22.2% 20.0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006
Single Person HHs Multi-person Non-Family HHs Families - No Children < 18
Single Parent - Children < 18 Married - Children under 18
65+ = 8.9% 65+ = 9.8% 65+ = 9.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1960 to 2000, 2006 American Community Survey
65+ = 8.9%
Household Type as a Percent of Oregon Household Growth - 1960 to 2006
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-2006
Single PersonHouseholds
Multi-person Non-Family Households
Families with NoChildren Under 18
Single Parent withChildren Under 18
Married-couple withChildren Under 18
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census, 1960 to 2000, 2006 American Community Survey
Changing Demographics:Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
• Are demographic changes taking place?• What are impacts of demographic changes?
Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel
Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel
Percent of Oregon Students Meeting Reading Standards in 2004
87% 86%
78%
74%
63%
52%55%
51%
35%
27%
22%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
White Asian/PI AIAN Black Hispanic Special Ed
3rd Grade 10th Grade
Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2003-2004
Percent of Oregon Students Meeting Mathematics Standards in 2004
85% 85%
73%71%
63%
57%
47%
58%
25%
19%17%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
White Asian/PI AIAN Black Hispanic Special Ed
3rd Grade 10th Grade
Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2003-2004
Changing Demographics Impacts on Educational AttainmentAn Example of Impacts Under the Following Assumptions
Past
High School
Students
High School Graduation
Rate
% Graduating High School
% HS Graduates Obtaining College Degree
% College Graduates of All High
School Students
% of All HS Students not Graduating High School
Hispanic 10% 50% 5.00% 15% 0.75% 5.00%
NH Minority 10% 60% 6.00% 25% 1.50% 4.00%
White NH 80% 80% 64.00% 40% 25.60% 16.00%
Total 100% 76.00% 27.85% 25.00%
Future (using California's current student ratios)
Hispanic 45% 50% 22.50% 15% 3.38% 22.50%
NH Minority 22% 60% 13.20% 25% 3.30% 8.80%
White NH 33% 80% 26.40% 40% 10.56% 6.60%
Total 100% 62.10% 17.24% 37.90%
In this scenario
* 38% decrease in percent graduating from college
* 52% increase in percent of students not graduating high school
Educational Attainment vs. Earnings
• High school dropouts on average earn $12,000 per year, half of a high school graduate, and one third of those with more than a high school degree
• They will earn ~$260,000 less than a high school graduate and pay $60,000 less in taxes over a lifetime
Source: Cecilia Rouse, NBER - The Labor Market Consequences of an Inadequate Education
Labor Force Hispanics Non-HispanicsHispanic
% of Total
2000 (in 000's) 16,307 125,462 11.5%
2020 (in 000's) 28,901 137,029 17.4%
2000-20 change 12,594 11,567 52.1%
2000-20 % change 77.2% 9.2%
Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Force - 2000 to 2020
Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel
Full-T ime Worker 1999 Earnings by Race, Ethnicity and Educational Attainment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
White alone Asian Hispanic < High school High school Some college College degree
An
nu
al E
arn
ing
s (
00
0s
)
Median Average
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
Oregon Per Capita Income as Percent of White Only Per Capita Income
100%
44%
62%60%
89%
62%
46%43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
White Only Hispanic Black AIAN Asian NHOPI Other Two or more
Perc
ent o
f Whi
te O
nly
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2005 American Community Survey
White HispanicTwo parents
one childTwo parents two children
Revenue difference
Taxable Income Line 37 55,522 31,386Tax Line 44 4,659 858Child Care Credit 600 858Child Tax Credit 1000*# 1,000 2,000Earned income credit 0 1,240Net Federal Tax / (Credit) 3,059 (3,240) (6,299)Oregon Taxable Income 48,918 27,841Oregon Tax 4,034 2,135Exemption credit 153*# 462 616Earned income credit 5% 0 62Child Care Credit 0 300Net Oregon Tax before WFCCC 3,452 1,157Working Family Child Care Credit 0 3,830Net Oregon Tax / (Credit) 3,452 (2,673) (6,125)Soc Sec / Medicare 7.65% 4,247 2,401 (1,846)Total Taxes / (Credits) 10,758 (3,512) (14,270)* Source: 2005 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Tax Impact of Oregon White vs. Hispanic Median Family Incomes
2005 Tax Returns were used to calculate tax liabilities / credits
White NH MFI - $55,522 * Hispanic MFI - $31,386 *
Taxable income is earned income, children are in child care and standard deduction
Ratio of working age persons to persons aged 65 and over
8.6
4.7
2.82.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1940 2000 2030 2075
Ra
tio
U.S. Congress. Congressional Budget Office. 2002
Projected U.S. Employment and Persons 65 and Over
129,722
152,675
164,151
34,992
52,733
70,319
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2000 2020 2030Employed labor force Population 65 and over
(in 1000s)
101%
27%
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
America’sPerfect StormAmerica’sPerfect Storm
Irwin KirschETS
National Press ClubWashington, D.C.February 5, 2007
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
Three Forces Are Changing Our Nation’s Future
• Inadequate literacy and numeracy skills among large segments of our student and adult populations
• An ongoing shift in the demographic profile of our population, powered by the highest immigration rates in nearly a century
• The continuing evolution of the economy and the nation’s job structure, requiring higher levels of skills from an increasing proportion of workers
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
Half of America’s adults lack literacy skills needed for the 21st century.
All Adults Asian Black Hispanic White
35 3020 14
41
139
33
17
2028 33
49
12
32
33
44
33
30
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percentage of Adults 16-65 Years Old at:Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5
Major Demographic Impacts• Racial/ethnic composition of public school students
changing rapidly in Oregon• Minority population generally less educated with
lower earnings capacity• White educated Baby Boomers begin retiring in 2010• Work force growth will mostly come from minority
population - primarily Hispanic• Federal and state revenue will be negatively
impacted unless minority earnings increase• Ratio of workers to retired persons is decreasing -
putting pressure on retirement plan funding
Demographic Conclusions• U.S./Oregon is rapidly changing from primarily
a nation of white non-Hispanic persons to a racially and ethnically diverse population
• Hispanic/Latino and Asian populations are the fastest growing; white only the slowest
• Hispanic/Latino population increases now account for half of U.S. population growth
• Planning and policy decisions in education, housing, social services, etc. should reflect these patterns of growth
Changing Demographics:Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
• Are demographic changes taking place?• What are impacts of demographic changes?• View this presentation at
www.ohcs.oregon.gov/OHCS/PPR_Demographics.shtml
Richard Bjelland(503) 981-4076 [email protected]