oracle primavera risk analysis overview (full)1

<Insert Picture Here>

Primavera Risk Analysis

Wesley GilletteSenior Product Manager

Agenda

• Value of Project Risk Analysis

• Solution Overview

• Summary

© 2009 Oracle Corporation


Value of Risk Analysis


Who needs Risk Analysis?

• Executives/Program Managers– Need to assess bid viability– Need to assess risk during project selection

• Project Managers/Project Controls– Need to understand the impact of risk on the project schedule

and cost– Need to perform a cost/benefit analysis on mitigation plans– Need to satisfy a contractual/regulatory requirement for risk

analysis


Benefits of Effective Risk Analysis

• Increased confidence in bids & project selection

• Increased awareness of project assumptions

• Increased project success by enabling better project management


Solution Overview



• Methodology based risk analysis • Schedule Quality Assessment• Comprehensive Risk Modeling• Qualitative and quantitative Risk Register• Standard Analysis Reports• Scenario Comparison Reports• Risk Adjusted Schedule and Cash flow Report

Risk Analysis Methodology

Risk Planning

Risk Identification

Risk Assessment

Risk Response

Risk Reporting


Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11, APM PRAM Guide, AS/NZ S4360

Schedule Quality Assessment

Verify schedule quality by checking for scheduling best

practices


A poor quality schedule affects the quality and

reliability of the risk analysis

Select the checks to run against the schedule

Schedule Quality Assessment


Creates an interactive report with links to drill

down into the detail

Risk Modeling

• Estimate Uncertainty– Distributions (e.g. 3pt estimate)– User defined fields– Templates

• Risk Events– Discrete events which may impact the project schedule– Modeled with a probability and impact


Appling Risk Uncertainty to Schedule


Can note the assumptions & rationale supporting the

assessmentCan assess uncertainty

at a summary level

Apply estimate uncertainty consistently

through the use of templates

Building Risk Register – Qualitative Assessment


Priložnosti in nevarnosti

Izdelava in kvalitativna ocena tveganj

Building Risk Register – Quantitative Assessment


Then assess risks quantitatively

Building Risk Register – Linking Risks to Schedule


Mapiranje vpliva tveganj na aktivnosti in celoten

plan

Kvalitativna ocena tveganj


Building Scenarios & Running the Analysis

Create risk scenarios

Run the analysis and view the reports

Running the Analysis

• Monte Carlo simulation– Random simulation of probable outcomes– Not a guarantee of what will happen

• Sensitivity Analysis– Identifies what is likely to drive the project schedule


Results – Analyzing Contingency


View results for the entire project or selected WBS

or activity

Shows probability of success and contingency

needed

See the impact of risk on project & activity dates

and cost

Results – Project Drivers


Criticality Index shows how often activities are on

the critical path

Alternate critical path activities

Results – Project Drivers


Displays schedule & cost drivers

(sensitivity analysis)

Drivers can be schedule uncertainty or risk events

Evaluating Risk Response Plans

• Understand pre-response results

• Develop Risk Response plan

• Analyze

• Cost/Benefit analysis

• Track and report status


Risk Register – Mitigation Planning


Pre-Mitigation: Current assessment

of the risk

Mitigation: What can be done to reduce the

impact the risk

Post-Mitigation: Assessment of the risk after mitigation

Results – Updated Contingency


Evaluate the change in contingency from pre-

mitigated scenario


Results – Scenario Comparison

Primerjava učinkov tveganj in učinkov zmanjševanja tveganj

Results – Probabilistic Cash Flow

Shows the difference between what was planned

and what is probable

Shows the impact of uncertainty and risks on cash flow and resources Probabilistic spend

curves

25© 2009 Oracle Corporation

Results – Risk Adjusted Schedule


Compare deterministic schedule vs. a

probabilistic schedule(e.g. P50 & P80)


Summary




• Methodology based risk analysis • Schedule Quality Assessment• Comprehensive Risk Modeling• Qualitative and quantitative Risk Register• Standard Analysis Reports• Scenario Comparison Reports• Risk Adjusted Schedule and Cash flow Report

Benefits of Effective Risk Analysis

• Increased confidence in bids & project selection– Validation of schedule– Appropriate contingency at project level (not activity level)

• Increased awareness of project assumptions– Realistic project schedule– Common understanding of project schedule and risks

• Increased project success by enabling better project management– Understanding of project drivers– Validate risk response plans


oracle primavera risk analysis overview (full)1

Documents

results risk

risk mitigation

impact of risk

quantitative risk

risk scenarios

oracle corporation summary

risk response plans

risk postmitigation