optimal fiscal policy rule for achieving fiscal sustainability: a japanese case study

8/20/2019 Optimal Fiscal Policy Rule for Achieving Fiscal Sustainability: A Japanese Case Study

1/19

MNHD R`rkdgb Qmpcr Zcrdcs

@ptdomi Ldsjmi Q`idjy Xuic l`r Mjfdcvdgb Ldsjmi Zustmdgmhdidty5

M Empmgcsc Jmsc Ztuny

Gm`yukd T`sfdg`, ^ctsur` Odz`bujfd,mgn Lmrfmn ̂ mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry

G`. 3:=Eugc 81=3

Msdmg Ncvci`pocgt Hmgk Dgstdtutc


2/19

^fc R`rkdgb Qmpcr scrdcs ds m j`gtdgumtd`g `l tfc l`rocriy gmocn Ndsjussd`g Qmpcr scrdcs;tfc guohcrdgb `l tfc pmpcrs j`gtdgucn wdtfùt dgtcrruptd`g `r jfmgbc. MNHD—s w`rkdgbpmpcrs rclicjt dgdtdmi dncms `g m t`pdj mgn mrc p`stcn `gidgc l`r ndsjussd`g. MNHD cgjùrmbcsrcmncrs t` p`st tfcdr jòocgts `g tfc omdg pmbc l`r cmjf w`rkdgb pmpcr (bdvcg dg tfcjdtmtd`g hci`w). Zòc w`rkdgb pmpcrs omy ncvci`p dgt` `tfcr l`ros `l puhidjmtd`g.

Zubbcstcn jdtmtd`g5

T`sfdg`, G., ^. Odz`bujfd, mgn L. ^mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry. 81=3. @ptdomi Ldsjmi Qìdjy Xuic l`r Mjfdcvdgb Ldsjmi Zustmdgmhdidty5 M Empmgcsc Jmsc Ztuny. MNHD R`rkdgb Qmpcr 3:=. ^`ky 5̀ Msdmg Ncvci`pocgt Hmgk Dgstdtutc. Mvmdimhic5 fttp5//www.mnh.`rb/puhidjmtd`gs/`ptdomi-ldsjmi-pìdjy-ruic-mjfdcvdgb-ldsjmi-sustmdgmhdidty-empmgcsc-jmsc-stuny/

Qicmsc j`gtmjt tfc mutf`rs l`r dgl`romtd`g mhùt tfds pmpcr.

Comdi5 gy`sfdgÀmnhd.`rb, todzÀrcdtmku-u.mj.ep, lmrfmntfAbomdi.jò

Gm`yukd T`sfdg` ds Ncmg mgn JC@ `l tfc Msdmg Ncvci`pocgt Hmgk Dgstdtutc.

^ctsur` Odz`bujfd ds Mss`jdmtc Qr`lcss`r `l Cj`gòdjs mt Xcdtmku Sgdvcrsdty, Jfdhm,Empmg.

Lmrfmn ^mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry ds Mssdstmgt Qr`lcss`r `l Cj`gòdjs mt Kcd` Sgdvcrsdty,^`ky`. Jurrcgtiy, fc ds mis` m rcscmrjf mssdstmgt t` tfc Ncmg `l tfc Msdmg Ncvci`pocgtHmgk Dgstdtutc mgn ds m vdsdtdgb sjfìmr mt tfc Jrcndt Xdsk Nmtmhmsc (JXN) Mss`jdmtd`g `lEmpmg.

^fc vdcws cxprcsscn dg tfds pmpcr mrc tfc vdcws `l tfc mutf`rs mgn n` g`t gcjcssmrdiyrclicjt tfc vdcws `r pìdjdcs `l MNHD, MNH, dts H`mrn `l Ndrcjt`rs, `r tfc b`vcrgocgtstfcy rcprcscgt. MNHD n`cs g`t bumrmgtcc tfc mjjurmjy `l tfc nmtm dgjiuncn dg tfds pmpcrmgn mjjcpts g` rcsp`gsdhdidty l`r mgy j`gscqucgjcs `l tfcdr usc. ^crodgì`by uscn omyg`t gcjcssmrdiy hc j`gsdstcgt wdtf MNH `lldjdmi tcros.

R`rkdgb pmpcrs mrc suhecjt t` l`romi rcvdsd`g mgn j`rrcjtd`g hcl`rc tfcy mrc ldgmidzcnmgn j`gsdncrcn puhidsfcn.

Msdmg Ncvci`pocgt Hmgk DgstdtutcKmsuodbmsckd Hudindgb 6L

:-8-3 Kmsuodbmsckd, Jfdy`nm-ku^`ky` =11-


3/19

MNHD R`rkdgb Qmpcr 3:= T`sfdg`, Odz`bujfd, mgn ^mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry

Mhstrmjt

Empmg—s ncht-t`-br`ss nòcstdj pr`nujt (BNQ) rmtd` ds tfc fdbfcst mo`gb @rbmgdsmtd`g l`rCj`gòdj J`-`pcrmtd`g mgn Ncvci`pocgt (@CJN) jùgtrdcs. ^fds pmpcr wdii ldrstiy mgswcr

tfc qucstd`g `l wfctfcr Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt ncht ds sustmdgmhic. Gcxt, wfdic tfc Nòmrj`gndtd`g mgn H`fg—s j`gndtd`g mrc `ltcg uscn dg tfc idtcrmturc t` jfcjk wfctfcr mb`vcrgocgt—s ncht sdtumtd`g ds dg m nmgbcrùs z`gc, tfds pmpcr wdii sf`w tfmt tfc Nòmrj`gndtd`g ds `htmdgcn `giy lrò tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gstrmdgt (gmociy tfc suppiy `lb`vcrgocgt h`gns) mgn n`cs g`t tmkc dgt` mjjùgt tfc ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns. Msdopic jòpmrds`g `l tfc dgtcrcst rmtc mgn tfc br`wtf rmtc `l mg cj`gòy usdgb tfc Nòmrj`gndtd`g ds g`t mncqumtc t` jfcjk tfc stmhdidty `l m b`vcrgocgt—s hunbct ncldjdt. H`tf tfcdgtcrcst rmtc mgn tfc br`wtf rmtc `l tfc cj`gòy mrc nctcrodgcn cgn`bcgùsiy dg tfc o`nci.^fdrniy, tfds pmpcr sf`ws tfmt H`fg—s j`gndtd`g smtdsldcs tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgthunbct dg tfc i`gb rug hy dop`sdgb j`gstrmdgts `g tfc prdomry hmimgjc. F`wcvcr, H`fg—sj`gndtd`g n`cs g`t mjfdcvc cj`gòdj stmhdidty„cvcg dl tfc j`gndtd`g ds smtdsldcn, tfc rcj`vcry`l tfc cj`gòy omy g`t hc mjfdcvcn. ^fds pmpcr wdii pr`p`sc m gcw j`gndtd`g tfmt smtdsldcs

h`tf tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct mgn tfc rcj`vcry `l tfc cj`gòy. ^fc pmpcr wdiisfcn idbft `g tfcsc dssucs h`tf tfc`rctdjmiiy mgn copdrdjmiiy. ^fc copdrdjmi ldgndgbs ncjimrctfmt dg `rncr t` mjfdcvc ldsjmi sustmdgmhdidty hmscn `g tfc `ptdomi ldsjmi pìdjy ruic pr`vdncn dgtfds pmpcr, h`tf sdncs `l tfc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt hunbct (cxpcgndturc mgn rcvcguc) gccnt` hc mneustcn sdouitmgcùsiy. O`rc`vcr, tfc rcsuits sf`w tfmt tfc ncjrcmsc dg b`vcrgocgtcxpcgndturc fms t` hc t` o`rc tfmg tfc dgjrcmsc dg tmx rcvcguc.

ECI Jimssdldjmtd`g5 C>8, C


4/19


J`gtcgts

=. Dgtr`nujtd`g mgn mg @vcrvdcw `l tfc Empmgcsc H`gn Omrkct ..................................... :

8. Xcimtcn Idtcrmturc ...................................................................................................... 2

:. ^fc Xcvdscn Nòmr J`gndtd`g mgn H`fg—s J`gndtd`g Jòhdgdgcn wdtf tfc H`gnOmrkct ....................................................................................................................... 6

>. Omtfcomtdjmi O`nci ................................................................................................... 4

>.= Xcvdscn Nòmr J`gndtd`g Jòhdgcn wdtf tfc H`gn Omrkct ......................... =1

3. Ldsjmi Qìdjy Xuic mgn ^mx Xuic t` Mjfdcvc Zustmdgmhdidty `l tfc Hunbct ................. ==


5/19


=. DG^X@NSJ^D@G MGN MG @\CX\DCR @L ^FCEMQMGCZC H@GN OMXKC^

Empmg—s ncht-t`-br`ss nòcstdj pr`nujt (BNQ) rmtd` ds tfc fdbfcst mo`gb @rbmgdsmtd`gl`r Cj`gòdj J`-`pcrmtd`g mgn Ncvci`pocgt (@CJN) jùgtrdcs, mt o`rc tfmg 881%(Ldburc =). ^fc dgtcrcstdgb p`dgt ds tfmt Empmg—s ncht ds stdii sustmdgmhic, wfdic tfcsùtfcrg Cur`pcmg jùgtrdcs Brccjc mgn Jyprus wcgt hmgkrupt nuc t` fmvdgbb`vcrgocgt ncldjdts tfmt wcrc fdbf, mitfùbf tfcdr ncht-t`-BNQ rmtd`s wcrc i`wcrjòpmrcn t` Empmg—s.

Ldburc = diiustrmtcs tfc bcgcrmi b`vcrgocgt br`ss ldgmgjdmi idmhdidtdcs ms m pcrjcgtmbc `lBNQ l`r scicjtcn @CJN jùgtrdcs. Dt ds jicmr tfmt tfc rmtd` l`r Empmg ds tfc fdbfcst, mt884.. Mltcr Empmg, Brccjc mgn Dtmiy fmvc tfc scj`gn mgn tfdrn fdbfcst icvcismt =66.2% mgn =>2.8%, rcspcjtdvciy. ^fc mvcrmbc br`ss ncht-t`-BNQ rmtd` l`r mii@CJN jùgtrdcs ds ===.=%. Cst`gdm fms tfc i`wcst rmtd` mo`gb @CJN jùgtrdcs, mt

=:%.Ldburc =5 Br`ss Ncht/Br`ss Nòcstdj Qr`nujt dg Zcicjtcn @CJN Jùgtrdcs, 81=>

@CJN ? @rbmgdsmtd`g l`r Cj`gòdj J`-`pcrmtd`g mgn Ncvci`pocgt.

G`tc5 Bcgcrmi b`vcrgocgt br`ss ldgmgjdmi idmhdidtdcs ms m pcrjcgtmbc ̀ l BNQ.

Zùrjc5 @CJN Cj`gòdj @uti``k G`. 43 nmtmhmsc (81=>).

Mjjuouimtcn b`vcrgocgt ncht dg Empmg g`w moùgts t` o`rc tfmg 881% `l BNQ mgndt wdii hc ndlldjuit t` dssuc lurtfcr h`gns ugicss tfc Hmgk `l Empmg purjfmscs Empmgcscb`vcrgocgt h`gns (EBHs). Ncspdtc dts fubc hunbct ncldjdt, tfc Empmgcsc cj`gòy jmgsustmdg tfc stmhdidty `l tfc h`gn omrkct. Omgy Cur`pcmgs msk wfy Empmg ds stdii stmhicwfdic Brccjc mgn `tfcr Cur`pcmg jùgtrdcs mrc dg scrdùs trùhic.

^fc ndllcrcgjcs hctwccg Empmg mgn Brccjc jmg hc lùgn dg tfc ncomgn l`rb`vcrgocgt ncht, rmtfcr tfmg tfc suppiy `l b`vcrgocgt ncht. O`rc tfmg 41% `l tfcB`vcrgocgt `l Empmg—s ncht ds fcin hy nòcstdj dgvcst`rs dg hmgks, p`stmi smvdgbs, idlcdgsurmgjc, mgn pcgsd`g lugns. ^fc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt dssucs vmrdùs kdgns `l

h`gns hmscn `g ncomgn hy ndllcrdgb scjt`rs, mgn tfc b`vcrgocgt h`gn omrkct fms

884.<

=66.2

=>2.8

===.=

:3.8 :=.<

=:.1

1.1

31.1

=11.1

=31.1

811.1

831.1

%

:


6/19


hccg qudtc stmhic dg Empmg. Empmgcsc dgvcst`rs j`gtdguc t` fìn b`vcrgocgt h`gns,sdgjc Hmsci jmpdtmi rcqudrcocgts sct tfc rdsk `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns mt zcr`. @g tfc `tfcrfmgn, o`rc tfmg 21% `l dgvcst`rs dg Brccjc—s h`gn omrkct mrc l`rcdbg mgn tfcy fmvchccg qudjk t` o`vc ùt `l tfc omrkct mt tdocs `l rdsk.

Ldburc 8 ncpdjts tfc suppiy `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns mgn tfc ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt nchtdg Empmg mgn Brccjc. ^fc vcrtdjmi idgc sf`ws tfc suppiy `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns dg tfcprdomry omrkct, sdgjc g` omttcr wfmt tfc rmtc `l dgtcrcst, tfc b`vcrgocgt fms t`ldgmgjc dts hunbct ncldjdts. ^fc ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns dgjrcmscs wfcg tfcdgtcrcst rmtc rdscs. ^fus tfc ncomgn jurvc l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns ds upwmrn si`pdgb dgtfc ldburc.

Ldburc 85 B`vcrgocgt H`gn Omrkcts `l Empmg mgn Brccjc

Zùrjc5 T`sfdg` mgn ^mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry (81=>m).

H`tf Empmg mgn Brccjc fmvc dgjrcmscn tfcdr smics `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns, ocmgdgb tfmttfc suppiy jurvc `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns fms sfdltcn t` tfc rdbft dg tfc prdomry omrkct.^fc ncomgn l`r Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt h`gns hy hmgks, dgsurmgjc jòpmgdcs, mgnpcgsd`g lugns fms hccg dgjrcmsdgb ms tfc siubbdsf cj`gòy fms rcnujcn ncomgn l`rj`rp`rmtc i`mgs (Ldburc 8). O`gctmry cmsdgb fms dgjrcmscn hmgk ncp`sdts mgn tfcsclugns fmvc `ltcg hccg dgvcstcn dg b`vcrgocgt h`gns. Empmgcsc dgtcrcst rmtcs,tfcrcl`rc, rcomdg i`w.

^fc hcfmvd`r `l fìncrs `l Empmgcsc mgn Brcck ncht ds ndstdgjtdvc (^mhic =). @vcrscmsdgvcst`rs, wf` fìn 21% `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns dg Brccjc, mrc qudjk t` scii tfco dl tfcylcci tfmt rdsk ds dgjrcmsdgb. Ms ncomgn l`r Brcck h`gns fms ndodgdsfcn, tfc ncomgnjurvc `l tfc h`gns fms sfdltcn t` tfc iclt (scc Ldburc 8, rdbft-fmgn brmpf), wfdjf fmspr`brcssdvciy rmdscn tfc dgtcrcst rmtc `g Brcck h`gns. ^fc Brcck dgtcrcst rmtcdgjrcmscn t` o`rc tfmg 81%, wfdic tfc Empmgcsc dgtcrcst rmtc fms rcomdgcn mt mhùt=% `r icss (ms sf`wg dg tfc n`wgwmrn si`ppdgb nmsfcn idgc `l Ldburc :). Zdgjc `giy3% `l tfc t`tmi h`gns dssucn hy tfc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt mrc fcin hy `vcrscmsdgvcst`rs, tfcrc ds oujf icss idkcidf``n `l jmpdtmi lidbft, sdgjc nòcstdj fìncrs tcgn t`rctmdg tfcdr dgvcstocgts (T`sfdg` mgn Odz`bujfd 81=:h).

>


7/19


^mhic =5 Fìncrs `l Empmgcsc mgn Brcck B`vcrgocgt H`gns, 81==

Fìncrs `lEmpmgcsc B`vcrgocgt H`gns

% `l ^`tmi Fìncrs `lBrcck B`vcrgocgt H`gns

% `l ^`tmi

Hmgk mgn p`stmi smvdgbs >3 @vcrscms dgvcst`rs ::Idlc mgn g`g-idlc dgsurmgjc 81 Nòcstdj dgvcst`rs 8=

Quhidj pcgsd`g lugns =1 Cur`pcmg Jcgtrmi Hmgk =6

Qrdvmtc pcgsd`g lugns > Hdimtcrmi i`mgs =>

Hmgk `l Empmg 6 Z`jdmi pcgsd`g lugns <

@vcrscms dgvcst`rs 3 Dgtcrgmtd`gmi O`gctmry Lugn 3

Fùscfìns 3 Brcck nòcstdj lugns :

@tfcrs :

G`tc5 Dg Brccjc, 21% `l ncht ds fcin hy `vcrscms dgvcst`rs, jòpmrcn wdtf 3% l`r Empmg.

Zùrjc5 T`sfdg` mgn ^mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry (81=>h).

Ldburc :5 Dgtcrcst Xmtc mgn B`vcrgocgt H`gns @utstmgndgb

G`tc5 ^fc rdbft-fmgn sjmic sf`ws ùtstmgndgb b`vcrgocgt h`gns mgn `tfcr b`vcrgocgt h`rr`wdgbs. ^fc

mggumi nmtm wms j`gvcrtcn t` mggumi nmtm mgn cxp`gcgtdmiiy so``tfcn. ^fc dgtcrcst rmtc ds tfc =1 ycmr-ydcin`l tfc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt h`gns.

Zùrjc5 GDKKCD GCCNZ nmtmhmsc.

Empmg fms mjfdcvcn tfc fdbfcst idlc cxpcjtmgjy dg tfc w`rin mgn tfc Empmgcsccj`gòy ds lmjdgb mg mbdgb p`puimtd`g. Hcjmusc `l tfc mbdgb p`puimtd`g, s`jdmi wcilmrcj`sts fmvc stmrtcn t` dgjrcmsc mgn jurrcgtiy `gc-tfdrn `l b`vcrgocgt spcgndgb dsmii`jmtcn t` s`jdmi wcilmrc, wfdic tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct ncldjdt ds rdsdgb cvcry ycmr. Dgtfc bcgcrmi mjjùgt hunbct l`r 81=3, s`jdmi scjurdty mjjùgts l`r :8.2% `l tfc t`tmihunbct. ^fds ds tfc ome`r rcms`g l`r tfc dgjrcmsc dg tfc moùgt `l ùtstmgndgbb`vcrgocgt h`gns ms sf`wg dg Ldburc :. ^fc scj`gn rcms`g l`r tfds j`gtdguùs hunbctncldjdcgt ds tfc fdbf pmyocgts lrò tfc jcgtrmi b`vcrgocgt t` i`jmi b`vcrgocgts. Mrùgn =

>.3

3

= 4 4 > ] =

= 4 4 > ] >

= 4 4 3 ] :

= 4 4 < ] 8

= 4 4 2 ] =

= 4 4 2 ] >

= 4 4 6 ] :

= 4 4 4 ] 8

8 1 1 1 ] =

8 1 1 1 ] >

8 1 1 = ] :

8 1 1 8 ] 8

8 1 1 : ] =

8 1 1 : ] >

8 1 1 > ] :

8 1 1 3 ] 8

8 1 1 < ] =

8 1 1 < ] >

8 1 1 2 ] :

8 1 1 6 ] 8

8 1 1 4 ] =

8 1 1 4 ] >

8 1 = 1 ] :

8 1 = = ] 8

8 1 = 8 ] =

8 1 = 8 ] >

8 1 = : ] :

1

8

>

<

6

=1

=8

% p

c r m g g u o

O d i i d ` g s

@utstmgndgb B`vcrgcocgt H`gn (XFZ) Dgtcrcst rmtc (IFZ)

3


8/19


s`jdmi scjurdty. Omgy i`jmi b`vcrgocgts rciy `g jcgtrmi b`vcrgocgt trmgslcrs wdtfùtomkdgb cll`rts tfcoscivcs t` rcvdtmidzc tfcdr rcbd`gmi cj`gòdcs (T`sfdg` mgn^mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry, l`rtfjòdgb 81= sf`ws tfc b`vcrgocgt h`gn dgtcrcst rmtcs `l scicjtcn @CJN jùgtrdcs. ^fc

Brcck b`vcrgocgt h`gn dgtcrcst rmtc dgjrcmscn sunncgiy wfcg tfc jùgtry—s hunbctncldjdt wms dg m scrdùs j`gndtd`g mgn jùin g`t hc rcnccocn hy tmx pmycrs— o`gcy.L`rcdbg dgvcst`rs mskcn l`r m rdsk prcoduo l`r Brcck b`vcrgocgt h`gns mgn l`rcdbgdgvcst`rs stmrtcn t` scii Brcck h`gns, wfdjf dgjrcmscn tfc dgtcrcst rmtc cvcg lurtfcr. Dgj`gtrmst, tfc h`ttò idgc dg tfc ldburc sf`ws tfc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt h`gn dgtcrcstrmtc, wfdjf ds tfc i`wcst mo`gb tfc scicjtcn @CJN jùgtrdcs l`r tfc rcms`gs cxpimdgcndg Ldburc 8.

Empmg—s ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns ds dgjrcmsdgb mgn tfc ncomgn jurvc l`rb`vcrgocgt h`gns ds sfdltdgb t` tfc rdbft, sdgjc hmgks, dgsurmgjc jòpmgdcs, mgnpcgsd`g lugns, ctj. mrc i``kdgb t` cgjùrmbc dgvcstocgt. Hmgks fmvc j`gtdgucn t`rcjcdvc ncp`sdts mgn mrc i``kdgb l`r dgvcstocgt dg b`vcrgocgt h`gns. Dgsurmgjc mgn

puhidj pcgsd`g lugns dg Empmg mrc dgjidgcn t` dgvcst dg b`vcrgocgt h`gns, ms tfcy mrcrcbmrncn ms smlc msscts. ^fcrcl`rc, tfc ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns fms hccgdgjrcmsdgb, s` tfc ncomgn jurvc l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns fms hccg dgjrcmsdgb mgn fmskcpt tfc Empmgcsc dgtcrcst rmtc i`w.

Ldburc >5 Dgtcrcst Xmtcs dg Zcicjtcn @CJN jùgtrdcs

@CJN ? @rbmgdsmtd`g l`r Cj`gòdj J`-`pcrmtd`g mgn Ncvci`pocgt.G`tc5 ^fc rmtc ds tfc =1-ycmr b`vcrgocgt h`gn dgtcrcst rmtc. Bcgcrmiiy, tfc ydcin ds jmijuimtcn mt tfc prc-tmxicvci hcl`rc ncnujtd`gs l`r hr`kcrmbc j`sts mgn jòodssd`gs, mgn ds ncrdvcn lrò tfc rcimtd`gsfdp hctwccgtfc prcscgt omrkct vmiuc `l tfc h`gn mgn tfc vmiuc mt omturdty, tmkdgb dgt` mjjùgt dgtcrcst pmyocgts pmdntfrùbf t` omturdty.

O`gtfiy ldburcs sf`wg mrc jmijuimtcn ms tfc mvcrmbc ̀ l wcdbftcn ̀ r ug-wcdbftcn mrdtfoctdj rmtcs rcimtdgb t` miinmys `r spcjdldcn nmys dg tfc o`gtf `r t` m nmy mt `r gcmr tfc o`gtf—s cgn. L`r sf`rt- mgn i`gb-tcro dgtcrcstrmtcs, mggumi mgn qumrtcriy nmtm mrc tfc mvcrmbcs `l tfc o`gtfiy ldburcs, wfdic l`r ’`vcrgdbft‟ rmtcs, mggumimgn qumrtcriy nmtm usumiiy rclcr t` tfc ldburc l`r tfc ldgmi o`gtf `l tfc pcrd`n.

Zùrjc5 O`gtfiy O`gctmry mgn Ldgmgjdmi Ztmtdstdjs (OCD), @CJN stmtdstdjs, rcicmscn 3 Omy 81=3.

Xcbmrndgb tfc b`vcrgocgt h`gn omrkcts, tfc Nòmr j`gndtd`g mgn H`fg—s j`gndtd`gmrc `ltcg uscn dg tfc idtcrmturc t` jfcjk wfctfcr tfc cj`gòy ds dg m nmgbcrùs z`gc `rg`t. Nòmr subbcsts tfmt mg cj`gòy sfùin omkc dts dgtcrcst rmtc i`wcr tfmg tfc

1

3

=1

=3

81

83

:1

:3

E m g - 8 1 1 1

E u i - 8 1 1 1

E m g - 8 1 1 =

E u i - 8 1 1 =

E m g - 8 1 1 8

E u i - 8 1 1 8

E m g - 8 1 1 :

E u i - 8 1 1 :

E m g - 8 1 1 >

E u i - 8 1 1 >

E m g - 8 1 1 3

E u i - 8 1 1 3

E m g - 8 1 1 <

E u i - 8 1 1 <

E m g - 8 1 1 2

E u i - 8 1 1 2

E m g - 8 1 1 6

E u i - 8 1 1 6

E m g - 8 1 1 4

E u i - 8 1 1 4

E m g - 8 1 = 1

E u i - 8 1 = 1

E m g - 8 1 = =

E u i - 8 1 = =

E m g - 8 1 = 8

E u i - 8 1 = 8

E m g - 8 1 = :

E u i - 8 1 = :

E m g - 8 1 = >

E u i - 8 1 = >

% p

c r m g g

u o

Lrmgjc

Bcromgy

Brccjc

Dtmiy

Empmg

Q`rtubmi

Zpmdg

SgdtcnKdgbnò

Sgdtcn Ztmtcs

Brccjc

Empmg


9/19


br`wtf rmtc `l tfc cj`gòy. H`fg pr`p`scs tfmt m prdomry hmimgjc fms t` hcomdgtmdgcn s` tfmt tfc ncht-t`-BNQ rmtd` n`cs g`t ndvcrbc lrò dts `rdbdgmi icvci.

^fc purp`sc `l tfds pmpcr ds tw`lìn. ^fc ldrst p`dgt wc wdii mrbuc ds tfmt tfc Nòmrj`gndtd`g ds `htmdgcn `giy lrò tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gstrmdgt (gmociy tfc suppiy `l

b`vcrgocgt h`gns) mgn n`cs g`t tmkc dgt` mjjùgt tfc ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns. M sdopic jòpmrds`g `l tfc dgtcrcst rmtc mgn tfc br`wtf rmtc `l tfc cj`gòy ds g`tmncqumtc t` jfcjk tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct ncldjdt ms h`tf tfc dgtcrcstrmtc mgn tfc br`wtf rmtc `l tfc cj`gòy mrc nctcrodgcn cgn`bcgùsiy dg tfc o`nci.

^fc scj`gn p`dgt ds tfmt H`fg—s j`gndtd`g smtdsldcs tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgthunbct dg tfc i`gb rug hy dop`sdgb j`gstrmdgts l`r tfc prdomry hmimgjc. F`wcvcr, dtn`cs g`t mjfdcvc cj`gòdj stmhdidty. Cvcg dl H`fg—s j`gndtd`g ds smtdsldcn, tfc rcj`vcry`l tfc cj`gòy omy g`t hc mjfdcvcn. ^fds pmpcr wdii pr`p`sc m gcw j`gndtd`g tfmt jmgsmtdsly h`tf tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct mgn tfc rcj`vcry `l tfc cj`gòy.

^fc pmpcr ds `rbmgdzcn ms lìi`ws. Zcjtd`g 8 pr`vdncs tfc rcimtcn idtcrmturc. Zcjtd`g :sf`ws ldrstiy m rcvdsd`g `l tfc Nòmr j`gndtd`g hy dgjiundgb h`tf tfc suppiy mgn

ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns dg tfc o`nci. Zcj`gniy, dt sf`ws tfmt H`fg—s j`gndtd`gmnnrcsscs `giy tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gstrmdgt mgn tfmt tfc rcj`vcry`l tfc cj`gòy odbft g`t mjfdcvcn hy sdopiy mppiydgb H`fg—s ruic. ^fc gcw j`gndtd`gsl`r tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct ncldjdt mgn tfc rcj`vcry `l tfc cj`gòy mrcpr`vdncn dg tfds scjtd`g. Zcjtd`g > pr`vdncs tfc omtfcomtdjmi o`nci l`r tfc gcw ldsjmipìdjy ruic, wfdjf smtdsldcs h`tf tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct mgn tfc rcj`vcry`l tfc cj`gòy. Zcjtd`g 3 pr`vdncs tfc copdrdjmi survcy `l tfc pr`p`scn ldsjmi pìdjyruic l`r Empmg. Zcjtd`g < j`gtmdgs tfc j`gjiundgb rcomrks.

8. XCIM^CN ID^CXM^SXC

^fcrc ds suhstmgtdmi rcscmrjf j`gjcrgdgb tfc ldsjmi sustmdgmhdidty j`gndtd`gs `l tfcb`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gstrmdgt. ^fc sustmdgmhdidty `l puhidj ncht jmg hc cxmodgcn lròtfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gstrmdgt dg tfc ldsjmi pìdjy idtcrmturc. H`fg (=446) pr`p`scn mndllcrcgt ldsjmi sustmdgmhdidty tcst t` cstdomtc tfc trmgsvcrsmiiy j`gndtd`g. Fc lùgn tfmtmg dgjrcmsc dg tfc rmtd` `l b`vcrgocgt ncldjdt t` BNQ dgjrcmscn tfc rmtd` `l tfc prdomrysurpius t` BNQ lrò =4=< t` =443 dg tfc Sgdtcn Ztmtcs (SZ). Fc j`gjiuncn tfmt SZldsjmi pìdjy sustmdgcn mg dgtcrtcop`rmi hunbct j`gstrmdgt. H`fg (8113) mis` cxmodgcntfc sustmdgmhdidty `l SZ ldsjmi pìdjy hy usdgb nmtm lrò tfc SZ ldsjmi rcj`rns lrò=248‚‚811: mgn jrdtdjmiiy rcvdcwcn tfc sustmdgmhdidty j`gndtd`gs mgn tfcdr tcstmhicdopidjmtd`gs, mppiydgb tfco t` SZ nmtm t` copfmsdzc tfc rmodldjmtd`gs `l cj`gòdjbr`wtf. M ’br`wtf ndvdncgn‟ fms fdst`rdjmiiy j`vcrcn tfc cgtdrc dgtcrcst hdii `g SZ ncht.Sgdt r``t tcsts `g rcmi scrdcs, ugsjmicn hy BNQ, mrc ndst`rtcn hy tfc scrdcs— scvcrcfctcr`skcnmstdjdty. ^fc o`st jrcndhic cvdncgjc dg lmv`r `l sustmdgmhdidty ds tfc r`hustp`sdtdvc rcsp`gsc `l prdomry surpiuscs t` liujtumtd`gs dg tfc ncht-t`-BNQ rmtd`.

L`r Empmgcsc jmscs, tfcrc mrc mis` suhstmgtdmi copdrdjmi stundcs `g tfds dssuc. M stunyhy T`sfdg` mgn Odz`bujfd (81=1) dgvcstdbmtcs tfc rìc `l tfc Idhcrmi Nco`jrmtdj Qmrty`g tfc ldcin `l puhidj cxpcgndturc. ^fc stuny sf`ws tfmt spcgndgb dgdtdmiiy lucicnEmpmg—s rmpdn p`stwmr br`wtf mgn kcpt tfc INQ dg p`wcr l`r o`st `l tfc imst fmil-jcgtury. F`wcvcr, mltcr tfc cj`gòdj huhhic hurst dg =441, tfc jùgtry lcii dgt` m i`gbcj`gòdj omimdsc, jmiicn tfc ’i`st ncjmnc.‟ J`gsdncrdgb tfc jurrcgt EBHjdrjuostmgjcs dg Empmg, wc dgtr`nujc tfc stmhdidty j`gndtd`g l`r tfc b`vcrgocgt h`gnomrkct hy tmkdgb dgt` mjjùgt `l b`vcrgocgt suppiy mgn ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgth`gns hy ldgmgjdmi dgstdtutd`gs. OjGcids mgn T`sfdg` (81=8) mppidcn Hmycsdmg

cstdomtd`g t` mg `pcg-cj`gòy nygmodj st`jfmstdj bcgcrmi cqudidhrduo (NZBC) o`nci

2


10/19


`l Empmg. ^fcy lùgn tfmt tfc cocrbcgjc `l cvcg m somii rdsk prcoduo `g b`vcrgocgtncht wdii trdbbcr sdbgdldjmgt dgstmhdidty dg tfc rcmi mgn gòdgmi vmrdmhics. T`sfdg` mgnOdz`bujfd (81=:m) dgvcstdbmtcn tfc lcmturcs `l tfc li`w `l lugns dg Empmg mjr`ss tdoc.^fcy nco`gstrmtcn tfmt mg dgjrcmscn vìuoc `l j`rp`rmtc smvdgbs wms ncp`sdtcn msidqudn smvdgbs mgn uscn t` purjfmsc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt h`gns tfrùbf ldgmgjdmidgstdtutd`gs vdm tfc li`w `l lugns. ^fcy mis` sf`wcn tfmt tf`sc wf` ncomgn EBHs pimymg dop`rtmgt rìc dg tfc stmhdidty `l tfc omrkct. Xcjcgtiy, T`sfdg`, mgn \ìiocr (81=>)jòpmrcn Brccjc wdtf Empmg t` cxpimdg wfy Empmg fms g`t yct sullcrcn lrò m nchtjrdsds cvcg tfùbf dts br`ss b`vcrgocgt ncht-t`-BNQ rmtd` ds oujf imrbcr tfmgBrccjc—s. Dg Empmg, m imrbc sfmrc `l b`vcrgocgt ncht ds hcdgb fcin nòcstdjmiiy, tfcrcmrc suhstmgtdmi jcgtrmi hmgk fìndgbs `l b`vcrgocgt ncht, mgn mut`gòùs o`gctmrypìdjy jmg hc uscn t` cmsc ldgmgjdmi jrdsds. Hmscn `g tfcdr o`nci mgmiysds, tfcy sf`wwfy Empmgcsc nòcstdj dgvcst`rs fìn sujf fubc moùgts `l EBHs. Dt` mgn F`sfd(81=>) uscn m sdouimtd`g octf`n t` scc wfctfcr Empmg—s hunbct ncldjdts mrcsustmdgmhic mgn j`gjiuncn tfmt Empmg—s ldsjmi sdtumtd`g ds dg m nmgbcrùs z`gc.

Qrcvdùs mgmiysds, sujf ms tfmt hy H`fg (=446, 8113) `giy uscn tfc b`vcrgocgt

hunbct j`gstrmdgt l`r tfc stmhdidty `l tfc b`vcrgocgt h`gn omrkct. Dg ùr o`nci, tfcldsjmi sustmdgmhdidty `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns dg Empmg jmg hc cxpimdgcn hy tfc ncomgn l`rb`vcrgocgt h`gns rmtfcr tfmg tfc suppiy. Rc j`gsdncr tfds t` hc rcprcscgtmtdvc `lrcmidty. @ur pmpcr prcscgts m gcw stmhdidty j`gndtd`g l`r tfc h`gn omrkct. Rc mis`prcscgt sòc ruics l`r ldsjmi stmhdidzmtd`g mgn cxpimdg tfc ldsjmi ruics j`rrcsp`gndgb t`^myi`r—s ruic l`r o`gctmry pìdjy.

:. ^FC XC\DZCN N@OMX J@GND^D@G MGN H@FG—ZJ@GND^D@G J@OHDGDGCN RD^F ^FC H@GNOMXKC^

^fc Nòmr j`gndtd`g mgn H`fg—s j`gndtd`g mrc `ltcg uscn t` nctcrodgc wfctfcr hunbctncldjdts mrc sustmdgmhic `r g`t.

^fc Nòmr j`gndtd`g ds `htmdgcn lrò tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gstrmdgt ms lìi`ws.

+ ∘= ? Ξ + B`vcrgocgt Hunbct J`gstrmdgt (=)

Cqumtd`g (=) stmtcs tfmt b`vcrgocgt spcgndgb (＄＋dgtcrcst pmyocgts ＆∘=＄？ gcw dssuc `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns＆Ξ＄＋ tmx rcvcguc＆＄.

Ndvdndgb Cqumtd`g (=) hy BNQ () mgn rcwrdtdgb Cqumtd`g (=), wc bct ∘= ?

(∘)=+

∘= + Nòmr J`gndtd`g (8)

wfcrc ? ⁎ , ? ∌ ⁎ , ? ⁎ , mgn ? ⁎ Cqumtd`g (=) ncg`tcs tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gstrmdgt, wfdjf ncsjrdhcs tfc suppiy `l

b`vcrgocgt h`gns. Ndvdndgb Cqumtd`g (=) hy mgn wdtf m lcw trmgsl`romtd`gs, tfcNòmr j`gndtd`g dg Cqumtd`g (8) ds `htmdgcn. Dl tfc dgtcrcst rmtc ds fdbfcr tfmg tfcbr`wtf rmtc `l tfc cj`gòy, tfc hunbct ncldjdt wdii dgjrcmsc rmpdniy. @g tfc `tfcr fmgn,dl tfc dgtcrcst rmtc ds i`wcr tfmg tfc br`wtf rmtc `l tfc cj`gòy tfc hunbct ncldjdt wdiij`gvcrbc dg m stmhic omggcr. F`wcvcr, tfc Nòmr j`gndtd`g l`juscs `giy `g tfc

6


11/19


suppiy `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns mgn n`cs g`t tmkc dgt` mjjùgt tfc ncomgn l`rb`vcrgocgt h`gns.

>. OM^FCOM^DJMI O@NCI

^fds pmpcr ncsjrdhcs tfc cqumtd`gs `l h`tf tfc b`vcrgocgt h`gn suppiy mgn tfcb`vcrgocgt h`gn ncomgn hmscn `g tfc o`nci sct ùt hy T`sfdg` mgn Odz`bujfd(81=1, 81=:h). @ur o`nci ds suoomrdzcn ms lìi`ws5

+ ∘= ? ∌ + + ∌ B`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gstrmdgt ? Zuppiy `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns (:)

∌ ? 1 + = Ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns (>)

Lrò Cqumtd`gs (:) mgn (>), wc `htmdg tfc cqudidhrduo dgtcrcst rmtc `l b`vcrgocgth`gns5

− ? ∘∘∘∌∘ (3)

M sdopic omjr` o`nci tfmt dgjiuncs tfc ncomgn sdnc `l tfc b`vcrgocgt h`gn jmg hcj`gstrujtcn ms lìi`ws.

Cqumtd`g (:) ds tfc ndsp`smhic dgjòc, sf`wdgb wmbc dgjòc, trmgslcr pmyocgts lròtfc b`vcrgocgt, mgn dgtcrcst rcjcdvcn lrò b`vcrgocgt h`gns, odgus tmx pmyocgts.^fc ndsp`smhic dgjòc ds ndstrdhutcn dgt` j`gsuoptd`g mgn smvdgbs. Zmvdgbs mrcmii`jmtcn l`r tfc purjfmsc `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns, l`r o`gcy ncomgn, mgn t` dgjrcmscnòcstdj ncp`sdts.

Ndsp`smhic dgjòc ds ncldgcn ms dgjòc ( ) pius b , tfc dgtcrcst rcjcdvcn lròb`vcrgocgt h`gns hy fùscfìns (∘=), odgus tfc tmx pmyocgt () ms lìi`ws. ^fcndsp`smhic dgjòc ds ndvdncn dgt` j`gsuoptd`g () mgn smvdgbs ()

? + ∘= ? + wfcrc ? Ξ + ∌ + Ξ (


12/19


wmgt t` huy o`rc b`vcrgocgt h`gns mgn rcnujc tfc moùgt `l ncp`sdts. Mii ncp`sdtsmrc uscn l`r hmgk i`mgs t` smtdsly dgvcstocgt.

Lrò Cqumtd`gs (.= Xcvdscn Nòmr J`gndtd`g Jòhdgcn wdtf tfc H`gn Omrkct

Ldburc 3 sf`ws tfc trcgn `l tfc i`gb-tcro dgtcrcst rmtc (=1-ycmr Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgth`gn ydcin) mgn gòdgmi BNQ br`wtf rmtc `l Empmg. Ms tfc ldburc sf`ws, pmrtdjuimriy

nurdgb 811:‚8114, tfc i`gb-tcro dgtcrcst rmtc mgn gòdgmi BNQ br`wtf rmtc mrcmppr`xdomtciy j`-o`vdgb. ^fc ldburc sf`ws tfmt tfc rmtc `l dgtcrcst cxjccns tfc br`wtfrmtc `l tfc cj`gòy. Dt subbcsts tfmt tfc Empmgcsc hunbct ds `g mg ugstmhic pmtf,hmscn `g tfc Nòmr j`gndtd`g. Mppiydgb tfc Nòmr j`gndtd`g mgn tfc jmsc stundcs `lQìdt` mgn Rdjkcgs (8112), tfc nmtm sf`ws tfc dgstmhdidty `l h`gn ldgmgjdgb dg Empmg.Jòpmrcn wdtf tfc stmhdidty j`gndtd`g dg H`fg (=446) mgn `tfcr stundcs, ùr o`ncij`gsdncrs tfc strujturc `l tfc h`gn omrkct. Zdgjc h`tf tfc dgtcrcst rmtc mgn h`gnsuppiy mgn ncomgn mrc cgn`bcgùs dg ùr o`nci, wc jmg dgvcstdbmtc tfc stmhdidtyj`gndtd`g hmscn `g tfc cmjf cj`gòdj vmrdmhic dg tfc cj`gòy.

=1


13/19


Ldburc 35 ^fc Xcmi BNQ Br`wtf Xmtc mgn tfc I`gb-tcro Dgtcrcst Xmtc dg Empmg

BNQ ? br`ss nòcstdj pr`nujt.

G`tc5 ^fc BNQ br`wtf rmtc l`r cmjf qumrtcr ds jòpmrcn t` tfc prcvdùs ycmr mgn scms`gmiiy mneustcn. ^fcdgtcrcst rmtc ds tfc =1-ycmr Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt h`gn ydcin.

Zùrjc5 ]umrtcriy cstdomtcs ̀ l BNQ, Cj`gòdj mgn Z`jdmi Xcscmrjf Dgstdtutc (CZXD), Jmhdgct @lldjc ̀ l Empmg;Gdkkcd GCCNZ.

3. LDZJMI Q@IDJT XSIC MGN ^MV XSIC ^@ MJFDC\C

ZSZ^MDGMHDID^T @L ^FC HSNBC^^fc ldsjmi pìdjy ruic jmg hc `htmdgcn ms lìi`ws.

^fc `hecjtdvc lugjtd`g `l tfc b`vcrgocgt ds sct ms5

( , , ,,∌ ) ? =8=( −)8 + =88

8 + =8:( ∘=)8 + =8>(

∘=)8 + =83(∌ ∌−)8 ＆=>＄

^fc b`vcrgocgt mdos t` stmhdidzc b`vcrgocgt ncht () ms ji`sc ms p`ssdhic t` dtsncsdrcn icvci, wdtf BNQ () ji`sc t` tfc luii copi`yocgt icvci `l BNQ (), mgn wdtf mso``tf jfmgbc `l b`vcrgocgt spcgndgb ( ), so``tf jfmgbc `l tmxmtd`g ( ), mgnso``tf jfmgbc `l tfc li`w `l h`gns (∌). Fcrc ( ? =,⋠ ,3) mrc tfc pìdjy wcdbftstfc b`vcrgocgt jmg sct.Rc odgdodzc tfc i`ss lrò tfc b`vcrgocgt—s `hecjtdvc lugjtd`g hy ocmgs `lb`vcrgocgt spcgndgb () mgn tfc so``tf jfmgbc `l tmxmtd`g ().odg,

( , , , ,∌ )

?=

8=( −)8 +

=

88

8+

=

8:( ∘=)8 +

=

8>( ∘=)8

+=

83(∌ ∌−)8

= 4 4 3 ] =

= 4 4 3 ] :

= 4 4 < ] =

= 4 4 < ] :

= 4 4 2 ] =

= 4 4 2 ] :

= 4 4 6 ] =

= 4 4 6 ] :

= 4 4 4 ] =

= 4 4 4 ] :

8 1 1 1 ] =

8 1 1 1 ] :

8 1 1 = ] =

8 1 1 = ] :

8 1 1 8 ] =

8 1 1 8 ] :

8 1 1 : ] =

8 1 1 : ] :

8 1 1 > ] =

8 1 1 > ] :

8 1 1 3 ] =

8 1 1 3 ] :

8 1 1 < ] =

8 1 1 < ] :

8 1 1 2 ] =

8 1 1 2 ] :

8 1 1 6 ] =

8 1 1 6 ] :

8 1 1 4 ] =

8 1 1 4 ] :

8 1 = 1 ] =

8 1 = 1 ] :

8 1 = = ] =

8 1 = = ] :

8 1 = 8 ] =

8 1 = 8 ] :

8 1 = : ] =

8 1 = : ] :

-=1

-6

-<

->

-8

1

8

>

<%

Dgtcrcst rmtc

BNQ br`wtf rmtc

==


14/19


^fc ldrst-`rncr j`gndtd`gs mrc5

? =( −) + 8

+ :( ∘=) + 3(∌ ∌−) ∌

? 18 (=3)

? =( −) + 8 + >( ∘=) + 3(∌ ∌−) ∌ ? 1

:

(= 81=>, m pcrd`n wfdjf dgjiuncs tfc p`st-huhhic crm `l tfc Empmgcsc cj`g`oy, tfc =442‚=446 Msdmg ldgmgjdmi jrdsds, tfc 8116‚8114 bi`hmi ldgmgjdmi jrdsds, mgn tfc 81== Brcmt Cmst Empmg cmrtfqumkc mgn tsugmod.

^fc b`vcrgocgt cxpcgndturc uscn dg `ur copdrdjmi survcy ds tfc t`tmi puhidj ncomgnmgn tmx ds tfc t`tmi b`vcrgocgt tmx rcvcguc, h`tf scms`gmiiy mneustcn. O`gcy ncomgn

8

? ∘

+ =,

? (+)+

∌ , ∌

? ∘

+ =

: ? ∘ + = ,

? (+)+∌ , ∌ ?

∘+ =

=8


15/19


ds O8, tfc mvcrmbc moùgt `l ùtstmgndgb o`gcy st`jk hmscn `g tfc ycmr-`g-ycmrjfmgbc. L`r tfc ùtstmgndgb h`gns wc uscn tfc t`tmi ùtstmgndgb EBHs mgn `tfcrh`rr`wdgbs `l tfc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt. J`gsuoptd`g ds prdvmtc j`gsuoptd`g, dgjòcds BNQ, mgn dgvcstocgt ds prdvmtc dgvcstocgt, mii scms`gmiiy mneustcn mgn dg rcmi tcros,nclimtcn hy tfc BNQ nclimt`r (8114?=11). ^fc gcwiy dssucn h`gns mrc tfc gcw dssucs`l puhidj h`gns mgn gcw dssucs `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns. ^fc sùrjcs `l tfc nmtm mrc tdocscrdcs nmtm lrò tfc Hmgk `l Empmg (H@E), Dgtcrgmtd`gmi Ldgmgjdmi Ztmtdstdjs (DLZ) `l tfcDgtcrgmtd`gmi O`gctmry Lugn (DOL), Cj`gòdj mgn Z`jdmi Xcscmrjf Dgstdtutc (CZXD), tfcEmpmgcsc Jmhdgct @lldjc, Gdkkcd GCCNZ, mgn @CJN Cj`gòdj @uti``k.

^` cvmiumtc tfc stmtd`gmrdty `l tfc scrdcs, wc uscn mg mubocgtcn Ndjkcy‚Luiicr tcst.^fc rcsuits subbcst tfmt vmrdmhics l`r ùtstmgndgb b`vcrgocgt h`gns, dgvcstocgt,dgtcrcst rmtc, mgn prdvmtc ncp`sdts mrc g`g-stmtd`gmry dg icvci. F`wcvcr, wfcg wcmppidcn tfc ugdt r``t tcst t` tfc ldrst ndllcrcgjc `l tfc vmrdmhics, wc wcrc mhic t` rcecjttfc guii fyp`tfcsds `l ugdt r``ts l`r cmjf `l tfc vmrdmhics. ^fcsc rcsuits subbcst tfmttfc b`vcrgocgt h`gn, dgvcstocgt, dgtcrcst rmtc, mgn prdvmtc ncp`sdt vmrdmhics cmjfj`gtmdg m ugdt r``t. @gjc tfc ugdt r``t tcst wms pcrl`rocn mgn dt wms ndsj`vcrcn tfmt

tfc vmrdmhics wcrc g`g-stmtd`gmry dg icvci mgn stmtd`gmry dg tfc ldrst ndllcrcgjcs, tfcywcrc dgtcbrmtcn `l `rncr =. Fcgjc, vmrdmhics wdii mppcmr dg tfc cj`gòctrdj o`nci dgldrst ndllcrcgjcs. Rc uscn `rndgmry icmst squmrcs (@IZ) dg `rncr t` rug tfc rcbrcssd`gsl`r cmjf cqumtd`gs. Rc uscn tfc Mkmdkc Dgl`romtd`g Jrdtcrd`g t` scicjt tfc imb `rncrs.

Qrd`r t` ruggdgb tfc rcbrcssd`gs wc pi`ttcn Ldburcs 111

J f m g b c s d g s m v d g b

Jfmgbcs dg ndsp`smhic Dgjòc

=:


16/19


Ldburc 25 Jfmgbcs dg Dgjòc vcrsus Qrdvmtc j`gsuoptd`g

Ldburc 65 Jfmgbcs dg Dgjòc vcrsus Ncp`sdts

.G`tc5 Ncp`sdts ? smvdgb ‚ ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns

Nmtm p`dgts l`r 8111]= mgn 811=]= mrc g`t sf`wg ms tfcy mrc ùtsdnc tfc ldburc.

Zùrjc5 Gdkkcd GCCNZ.

L`r tfc ùtidcr p`dgts, wfdjf wcrc omdgiy lùgn nurdgb tfc jrdsds pcrd`ns, wc ncldgcn mnuooy vmrdmhic l`r cmjf `l tfc rcimtcn cqumtd`gs.

Hci`w mrc tfc rcsuits `l tfc rcbrcssd`gs5

Cq. >5 Ncomgn l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns5 ( ) )(=::336>>>:41t t

r H +?∌

Cq. 25 Dgvcstocgt lugjtd`g5 [ _)(8=8363=3:)(t t

r D ∌∘?∌

Cq. 65 J`gsuoptd`g cqumtd`g5 )(3:.14>>3t t

TNJ +?

Cq. 45 Ncp`sdt cqumtd`g5 )(]8

=442]=

=446]8

8111]8

8113]>

8116]8

8116]:8114]=

-1

-:1

-81

-=1

1

=1

81

:1

>1

31

-2111 -3111 -:111 -=111 =111 :111

J f m g b c s d g n c p ` s d t s

Jfmgbcs dg ndsp`smhic dgjòc

=>


17/19


Ldburc 45 Empmgcsc Xcmi Qrdvmtc J`gsuoptd`g mgn Xcmi Fùscfìn Zmvdgbsms m Qcrjcgtmbc `l Xcmi Ndsp`smhic Dgjòc, ]= =44>‚]= 81=:

Zùrjc5 Gdkkcd GCCNZ

J`gscqucgtiy wc jmijuimtc tfc b`vcrgocgt spcgndgb ruic (Cqumtd`g =2) mgn tmxmtd`gruic (Cqumtd`g =6) hmscn `g ùr o`nci hy mssuodgb tfmt tfc ldvc pìdjy wcdbfts dg ùrb`vcrgocgt `hecjtdvc lugjtd`g mrc cqumi t` 1.8, mgn tfmt nurdgb 81=>‚81:1 tfcEmpmgcsc rcmi BNQ br`ws mggumiiy hy 8% lrò tfc prcvdùs ycmr. Ldburc =1 sf`ws tfcpmst mjtumi b`vcrgocgt spcgndgb mgn tmx rcvcguc `l tfc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt (]8=44>‚]> 81=:) mgn tfc prècjtcn b`vcrgocgt spcgndgb mgn tmx rcvcguc (]= 81=>‚]>81:1) hmscn `g ùr o`nci.

Ldburc =15 B`vcrgocgt Cxpcgndturc mgn ^mx Xcvcguc

G`tc5 ^fc brmy sfmncn mrcm dgndjmtcs tfc prècjtcn vmiucs. ^fc iclt-fmgn mxds dgndjmtcs b`vcrgocgtcxpcgndturcs (prdomry cxpcgscs) mgn tmx rcvcguc, mgn tfc rdbft-fmgn mxds dgndjmtcs tfc mjjuouimtcnh`gns/rcmi qumrtcriy BNQ.

Zùrjc5 Xmw nmtm mrc lrò Gdkkcd GCCNZ, prècjtd`g vmiucs mrc jòpdicn hy tfc mutf`rs.

Ms diiustrmtcn dg Ldburc =1, dg `rncr t` mjt ms pcr tfc `ptdomi ldsjmi pìdjy ruic pr`vdncndg tfds pmpcr mgn dg `rncr t` rcnujc tfc moùgt `l gmtd`gmi ncht lrò dts prcscgt fdbf

1

1.=

1.8

1.:

1.>

1.3

1.<

1.2

1.6

1.4

= 4 4 >

] =

= 4 4 >

] >

= 4 4 3

] :

= 4 4 <

] 8

= 4 4 2

] =

= 4 4 2

] >

= 4 4 6

] :

= 4 4 4

] 8

8 1 1 1

] =

8 1 1 1

] >

8 1 1 =

] :

8 1 1 8

] 8

8 1 1 :

] =

8 1 1 :

] >

8 1 1 >

] :

8 1 1 3

] 8

8 1 1 <

] =

8 1 1 <

] >

8 1 1 2

] :

8 1 1 6

] 8

8 1 1 4

] =

8 1 1 4

] >

8 1 = 1

] :

8 1 = =

] 8

8 1 = 8

] =

8 1 = 8

] >

%

Xcmi prdvmtc j`gsuoptd`g/ Xcmi ndsp`smhic

dgjòc

Xcmi smvdgb/ Xcmi ndsp`smhic dgjòc

1%

811%

>11%

1.11

= 4 4 > ] 8

= 4 4 3 ] 8

= 4 4 < ] 8

= 4 4 2 ] 8

= 4 4 6 ] 8

= 4 4 4 ] 8

8 1 1 1 ] 8

8 1 1 = ] 8

8 1 1 8 ] 8

8 1 1 : ] 8

8 1 1 > ] 8

8 1 1 3 ] 8

8 1 1 < ] 8

8 1 1 2 ] 8

8 1 1 6 ] 8

8 1 1 4 ] 8

8 1 = 1 ] 8

8 1 = = ] 8

8 1 = 8 ] 8

8 1 = : ] 8

8 1 = > ] 8

8 1 = 3 ] 8

8 1 = < ] 8

8 1 = 2 ] 8

8 1 = 6 ] 8

8 1 = 4 ] 8

8 1 8 1 ] 8

8 1 8 = ] 8

8 1 8 8 ] 8

8 1 8 : ] 8

8 1 8 > ] 8

8 1 8 3 ] 8

8 1 8 < ] 8

8 1 8 2 ] 8

8 1 8 6 ] 8

8 1 8 4 ] 8

8 1 : 1 ] 8

¥ t r d i i d ` g

B`vcrgocgt cxpcgndturcs ^mx rcvcguc Mjjuouimtcn h`gn/Xcmi qumrtcriy BNQ

Qrècjtd`g

=3


18/19


icvci, Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt cxpcgndturc gccns t` hc rcnujcn nrmstdjmiiy mgn tfcb`vcrgocgt tmx rcvcguc gccns t` sfdlt upwmrn. ^fds ocmgs tfmt h`tf sdncs `l tfchunbct gccn t` hc mneustcn sdouitmgcùsiy (cxpcgndturc mgn rcvcguc) dg `rncr t`mjfdcvc ldsjmi sustmdgmhdidty. Lurtfcr, ms ds mppmrcgt lrò tfds ldburc, tfc ncjrcmsc dgcxpcgndturc gccns t` hc o`rc tfmg tfc dgjrcmsc `g tfc rcvcguc sdnc. Ms pcr ùrjmijuimtd`gs l`r 81=>‚81:1, tfc Empmgcsc b`vcrgocgt gccns t` jut cxpcgndturc hy>3% mgn rmdsc tmx rcvcguc hy :6%, l`r tfc purp`sc `l ldsjmi sustmdgmhdidty. L`r tfds,mmjjuouimtcn b`vcrgocgt h`gns/rcmi BNQ gccns t` hc rcnujcn lrò 886% dg ]>81=: t` =4 81:1.

2. J@GJISZD@G

^fds pmpcr mnnrcsscs tfc dssuc tfmt tfc j`gvcgtd`gmi Nòmr j`gndtd`g l`r tfc stmhdidty`l tfc hunbct ds `htmdgcn `giy lrò tfc suppiy sdnc l`r b`vcrgocgt h`gns, gmociy tfcb`vcrgocgt hunbct j`gndtd`g. Dt ds dop`rtmgt t` mis` tmkc dgt` mjjùgt tfc ncomgn sdnc

`l b`vcrgocgt h`gns. Empmg mgn Brccjc fmvc h`tf mjjuouimtcn m imrbc moùgt `lb`vcrgocgt ncht, hut Brccjc wcgt hmgkrupt wfcrcms Empmg—s ncht fms hccgsustmdgmhic. Rc fmvc sf`wg tfmt tfc ncomgn strujturc `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns dg Empmgds nòdgmtcn hy nòcstdj dgvcst`rs. @g tfc `tfcr fmgn, dg Brccjc, ncomgn dsnòdgmtcn hy `vcrscms dgvcst`rs. ^fds fdbf rmtd` `l `vcrscms dgvcst`rs wms tfc jmusc`l tfc dgjrcmsc dg tfc dgtcrcst rmtc `l b`vcrgocgt h`gns dg Brccjc.

Ms H`fg—s j`gndtd`g n`cs g`t smtdsly cj`gòdj rcj`vcry mgn `giy bdvcs tfc j`gndtd`g t`rctmdg tfc hunbct hmimgjc, tfc `ptdomi b`vcrgocgt spcgndgb ruic mgn tmx rcvcguc ruicfmvc t` hc `htmdgcn. ^fc `ptdomi ldsjmi pìdjy ruic fms t` cxmodgc f`w b`vcrgocgtncht ndvcrbcs lrò tfc ncsdrcn icvci, f`w tfc li`w `l tfc b`vcrgocgt hunbct ncldjdtndvcrbcs lrò tfc ncsdrcn icvci, mgn tfc BNQ bmp. ^fc gcw ldsjmi pìdjy ruic `htmdgcndg tfds pmpcr smtdsldcs tfc j`gndtd`gs l`r h`tf tfc stmhdidty `l tfc hunbct mgn tfc rcj`vcry

`l tfc cj`gòy mt tfc smoc tdoc.

J`gscqucgtiy, tfc copdrdjmi ldgndgbs sf`w tfmt dg `rncr t` mjfdcvc ldsjmi sustmdgmhdidtyhmscn `g tfc `ptdomi ldsjmi pìdjy ruic pr`p`scn dg tfds pmpcr, h`tf sdncs `l tfcEmpmgcsc b`vcrgocgt hunbct (cxpcgndturc mgn rcvcguc) gccn t` hc mneustcnsdouitmgcùsiy. ^fc rcsuits sf`w tfmt tfc ncjrcmsc dg b`vcrgocgt cxpcgndturc fms t`hc t` o`rc tfmg tfc dgjrcmsc dg tmx rcvcguc.

=


19/19


XCLCXCGJCZ

H`fg, F. =446. ^fc Hcfmvd`r `l SZ Quhidj Ncht mgn Ncldjdts. ]umrtcriy Eùrgmi ̀ l

Cj`gòdjs ==:(:)5 4>4‚4>>. ^fc Hurncg `l tfc Ncht mgn tfc Gmtd`gmi Dgjòc. MocrdjmgCj`gòdj Xcvdcw :>(>)5 246‚682.

OjGcids, Q., mgn G. T`sfdg`. 81=8. Omjr`cj`gòdj \ìmtdidty ugncr Fdbf Mjjuouimtd`g`l B`vcrgocgt Ncht5 Icss`gs lrò Empmg. Mnvmgjcs dg Jòpicx Zystcos =3(Zuppi. G`.8)5 =831132-=‚=831132-84.

F`sfd, ^., mgn ^. Dt`. 81=>. Nclydgb Brmvdty5 Jmg Empmgcsc Z`vcrcdbg Ncht J`gtdguc t`

Dgjrcmsc wdtfùt m Jrdsds0 Cj`gòdj Qìdjy Eùrgmi 84(2)5 3‚>>.

T`sfdg`, G., mgn ^. Odz`bujfd. 81=1. ^fc Xìc `l Quhidj R`rks dg tfc QìdtdjmiHusdgcss Jyjic mgn tfc Dgstmhdidty `l tfc Hunbct Ncldjdts dg Empmg. MsdmgCj`gòdj Qmpcrs 4(=)5 4>‚==8.

T`sfdg`, G., mgn ^. Odz`bujfd. 81=:m. Jfmgbc dg tfc Li`w `l Lugns mgn tfc LdsjmiXuics Gccncn l`r Ldsjmi Ztmhdidzmtd`g. Quhidj Qìdjy Xcvdcw 6(. ^fc Z`vcrcdbg Ncht Jrdsds5 Rfy Brccjc, hut g`t

Empmg0 Msdm Cur`pc Eùrgmi =8(:)5 :83‚:>=.

T`sfdg`, G., mgn L. ̂ mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry. L`rtfjòdgb. Empmg—s I`st Ncjmnc5 Jmuscs,J`gscqucgjcs mgn Xcocndcs. Cj`gòdj mgn Qìdtdjmi Ztundcs > (8)5 Euiy 81=m. ^frcc Mrr`ws `l ’Mhcgòdjs‟ mgn tfcZtrujturmi Xcl`ro `l Empmg5 Dglimtd`g ^mrbctdgb Qìdjy `l tfc Jcgtrmi Hmgk,Ldsjmi J`gsìdnmtd`g, mgn Br`wtf Ztrmtcby. MNHD R`rkdgb Qmpcr >48. ^`ky`5 Msdmg Ncvci`pocgt Hmgk Dgstdtutc.

T`sfdg`, G., mgn L. ^mbfdzmncf-Fcsmry. 81=>h. Mg Mgmiysds `l Jfmiicgbcs Lmjcn hyEmpmg—s Cj`gòy mgn Mhcgòdjs. ^fc Empmgcsc Qìdtdjmi Cj`gòy >15:‚>,:2‚

optimal fiscal policy rule for achieving fiscal sustainability: a japanese case study

Documents