opportunities in wind manufacturing · 2018-04-03 · opportunities in wind ... 2004 2008 2012 2016...

Opportunities in Wind Opportunities in Wind ManufacturingManufacturingManufacturingManufacturingLiz SalernoLiz SalernoDirector of Industry Data & AnalysisA i Wi d E A i tiAmerican Wind Energy Association

Overview

» Market Update» Market Update

» Manufacturing Update» Manufacturing Update

» Cost Update» Cost Update

» Policy Update» Policy Update

U.S. Annual and Cumulative Wind Power Capacity Growth (Utility‐Scale Wind)p y ( y )

20% Wind Energy by 2030

350DOE 20% Wind Scenario: Cumulative Wind Installed

250

300

O 0% d Sce a o: Cu u at e d sta ed

Actual: Cumulative Wind Installed

300,000 MW

y (GW)

200

Wind Capacity

100

150

umulative W

0

50 40,181 MWCu

2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028

Global Wind Power Capacity Installations for Top Countriesp

Global Wind Power CapacityGlobal Wind Power CapacityInstallations for Top CountriesInstallations for Top Countries

» Globally, 35,800 MW were installed in 2010

» The top 5 annual markets for new wind power capacity additions around the world in 2010, by country were:country, were:

1. China: 16,500 MW2. U.S.: 5,116 MW3. India: 2,139 MW4. Spain: 1,516 MW5. Germany: 1,493MW

Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report Year Ending 2010

U.S. Annual Power Capacity Additionsby Percentagey g

» New wind capacity represented» New wind capacity represented 26 % of all new capacity installed in 2010.

» Wind remained the second largest source of new installed capacity, second to natural gas at 40%.

» All renewable capacity combined represented nearly 33%.

» Over the past 4 years combined, wind represented 35% of all new generating capacity installed.g g p y


U.S. Top 20 Wind Power Capacity Ownersin 2010

U.S. Top 20 Wind Power U.S. Top 20 Wind Power Capacity Owners in 2010Capacity Owners in 2010


U.S. Wind Power Capacity Installations by State in 2010 (MW)( )


Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Shareof Total U.S. Wind Power Fleet

Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Share of Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Share of Total U.S. Wind Power FleetTotal U.S. Wind Power Fleet


Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Share of 2010 U.S. Wind Power Installations

Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Share of Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Share of 2010 U.S. Wind Power Installations2010 U.S. Wind Power Installations


Wind Turbines Installed Each Year, by Wind Turbine Manufacturer

Wind Turbines Installed Each Year, by Wind Turbines Installed Each Year, by Wind Turbine ManufacturerWind Turbine Manufacturer


Distribution of Wind Turbines Installed in 2010, by Capacityy p y

100100‐‐kW to 3.0kW to 3.0‐‐MWMW


U.S. Average Capacity of Installed Wind Turbines

» In 2010 nearly 2 900 newU.S. Average Capacity of Installed U.S. Average Capacity of Installed

Wind TurbinesWind Turbines» In 2010, nearly 2,900 new turbines were installed bringing the total U.S. installation to over 35,600 wind turbines.

» The average size of turbines installed in 2010 was 1.77‐MW, up slightly from 1.75‐MW in 2009.


Increase in Wind Turbine Productivity

» Technology has continued to improved with taller towers

Increase in Wind Increase in Wind improved with taller towers, larger rotors, increased turbines availability, and better siting technology to

Turbine ProductivityTurbine Productivity

better siting technology to achieve increased capacity factors.

» This improved performance translates into a turbine with a nameplate capacity 7 timesnameplate capacity 7 times larger than a typical turbine in 1990 that can produce 15 times more electricity.times more electricity.


All Online Wind‐Related Manufacturing Facilities

All Online WindAll Online Wind‐‐Related Manufacturing Facilities Related Manufacturing Facilities

» At the end of 2010, there were over 400 manufacturing f ili i lifacilities online making wind‐related products.

h l f l» The online facilities span 44 states


Major Wind Manufacturing Facility Locations –Turbine & Turbine Assemblyy

» At the end of 2010» At the end of 2010, there were 12 online turbine manufacturingmanufacturing facilities and an additional 8 announced facilities.


Type of Online and Announced Wind‐Related Manufacturing Facilities in 2010g


Wind Power Capacity in the Interconnection Queue (MW)Q ( )

Wind Power Capacity in the Wind Power Capacity in the Interconnection Queue (MW)Interconnection Queue (MW)

» There are roughly 275,000 MW of wind projects g y , p jlined up in the interconnection queues for transmission access.


Wind Power Capacity Under Construction

» The U.S. wind industry entered 2011 with over 5,600 MW under construction, more than double the 2 750 MW under construction entering 2010more than double the 2,750 MW under construction entering 2010.

» The 5,600 MW under construction exceeds such activity at the end of the year in 2007, 2008 and 2009.


U.S. Wind Turbine Order Activity in 2010

U.S. Wind Turbine Order Activity in 2010U.S. Wind Turbine Order Activity in 2010» In total, 6,280 MW of turbines

were ordered in 2010.

• Orders were placed throughoutOrders were placed throughout 2010 for 2010 delivery ‐ 1,400 MW of turbines delivered in 2010 were ordered in the same year.

• 2,300 MW or turbine orders placed for 2011 (with majority in placed in 4Q10: 1,500 MW)

• Few orders were placed for delivery in 2012 or beyond.


Wind Power Capacity Installations and Under Construction, by Region, y g


Actual Price of Wind Projects

Source: DOE Wind Technologies Market Report, 2009

Actual Price of Wind Projects, by Region

Source: DOE Wind Technologies Market Report, 2009

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison

Chart Source: Lazard, http://efile.mpsc.state.mi.us/efile/docs/15996/0145.pdf

Government Intervention in Energy MarketR&D Exploration/Extraction

Development/Production

Risk/Health/Clean‐Up

Oil/Gas R&D Non‐Coal Fossil Intangible DrillingPercent DepletionAmortize G&GEnhanced Oil Recov.Tertiary Injectants

PTC for non‐conventional

Tertiary InjectantsException to Passive LossExpensing of liquid fuelManufacturing Deduction

Coal R&D Coal Royalty as Capital GainsIntangible DrillingPercent Depletion

ITC for Clean CoalLoan Guarantee: Clean CoalPTC for refined coalManufacturing

Coal Miner tax deductionExpense mine safety equipAmortize pollution controlsExpense sulfur controlsManufacturing

DeductionExpense sulfur controls

Nuclear/Uranium

R&D Nuclear Intangible DrillingPercent Depletion

PTC for nuclearLoan Guarantee: Nuke

Non‐defense Clean UpPrice AndersonTax rate Decomm FundsTax rate Decomm FundsRegulatory Risk Insurance

Wind R&D Wind PTC/ITC/1603 WindCREBsSection 9006Depreciation on capitalManufac. Deduction

Call to Action: National Renewable Electricity Standard

States Have Led the Nation

Near‐Term Transmission Line Activity

» Near‐term transmission projects, if all completed, would p j , p ,project enough transmission capacity to carry another 29,000 MW of wind capacity in the next few years.


Historical Cost of Wind Energy

Source: NREL Cost Curve, in Black & Veatch Report, October 2007

Thank You

WINDPOWER 2011 Conference & Exhibition

Anaheim, CA | May 22 – 25, 2011

Sign up at AWEA.org

APPENDIX

U.S. Top 10 Owners of New Wind PowerCapacity in 2010p y

U S Top 10 Owners ofU S Top 10 Owners of» Of the 5,116 MW installed

in 2010, over 61 % of the capacity was contracted under a power purchase

U.S. Top 10 Owners of U.S. Top 10 Owners of New Wind Power Capacity in 2010New Wind Power Capacity in 2010

under a power purchaseagreement (PPA).

» Beside the 15 % utility» Beside the 15 % utility ownership and offtake, the remaining 24% of the installed capacity in 2010 was sold on the short‐term or spot market for power.


U.S. Wind Project Debt and Tax EquityDeals Closed in 2010

» Closed $11 1 billion in debt &

Debt & Tax Equity Deals Debt & Tax Equity Deals Closed in 2010 Closed in 2010

» Closed $11.1 billion in debt & tax equity in 2010:

• Tax Equity: 20 transactions closing $2.7 billion in tax equity supporting 3 800 MWequity, supporting 3,800 MW.

• Debt: 29 deals closing $8.4 billion in debt, supporting 5,600 MW.


Utility‐Scale Wind Turbines Installed in 2010

» 100‐kW to 3.0‐MW:• 18 different OEMs installed 26 different turbine platforms in 2010

» 1.0‐MW and Larger:• There were 14 OEMs which installed 20 different turbine platforms in 2010• There were 14 OEMs which installed 20 different turbine platforms in 2010.


Online & Announced Wind‐Related Manufacturing Facilities in 2010g

Online & Announced WindOnline & Announced Wind‐‐Related Related Manufacturing Facilities in 2010Manufacturing Facilities in 2010


U.S. Electricity Generation Mix in 2010

» 94.6 million MWh of wind produced in 2010U S Electricity Generation Mix in 2010U S Electricity Generation Mix in 2010 2010.

» Wind provided 2.3% of U.S. electricity in 2010

U.S. Electricity Generation Mix in 2010U.S. Electricity Generation Mix in 2010

» When all turbines installed during 2010 have a full year of production, total generation will be over 110total generation will be over 110 million MWh.

» Electricity from wind power capacity in y p p ythe U.S. will supply the equivalent of: • Over 10 million American homes• Nearly 10 nuclear power plants


U.S. Wind Percentage of Electricity Generation by State in 2010y

IA: 15%ND: 12%MN: 10%SD: 8%KS: 7%KS: 7%

In state with largest wind installation (TX: 10,085 MW),CO i d 8% f l i i f i d i 20 0ERCOT received 7.8% of electricity from wind in 2010.


opportunities in wind manufacturing · 2018-04-03 · opportunities in wind ... 2004 2008 2012 2016...

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