open tools for assessing quantitative scenarios in the ... · open tools for integrated assessment...

Open tools for integrated assessment scenariosin the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°CIncreasing transparency, reproducibility and opennessof the assessment of quantitative, model-based pathwaysin the context of climate change & sustainable development

Daniel HuppmannIIASA Lunchtime Seminar, December 15, 2018

Following the approval of the IPCC Special Report (SR15),media & newspapers quoted required system transformations

Open tools for assessing quantitative scenarios in the IPCC SR152

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/10/11/the-latest-report-on-global-warming-makes-grim-reading

[...] carbon-dioxide release still needs to fall by 45% or thereabouts by 2030. To have any hope of achieving this, two-thirds of coal use must be phased out in little more than a decade. By the middle of the century virtually all electricity must come from carbon-free sources (up from a quarter today), and all cars will need to run on electric motors (up from one in 500), as will trains and most ships. [...]

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/10/11/the-latest-report-on-global-warming-makes-grim-reading




www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html

[…] To prevent 2.7 degrees of warming, the report said, greenhouse pollution must be reduced by 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, and 100 percent by 2050. It also found that, by 2050, use of coal as an electricity source would have to drop from nearly 40 percent today to between 1 and 7 percent. Renewable energy such as wind and solar, which make up about 20 percent of the electricity mix today, would have to increase to as much as 67 percent. […]

Harry Taylor, 6, played with the bones of dead livestockin Australia, which has faced severe drought.Brook Mitchell/Getty Images

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html




https://www.zeit.de/wissen/umwelt/2018-10/weltklimarat-ipcc-duerre-sonderbericht-erderwaermung

[…] Als konkrete Maßnahmen mahnen die IPCC-Expertinnen an, den Ausstoß des klimaschädlichen Kohlendioxids bis 2030 um 45 Prozent gegenüber dem Wert von 2010 zu reduzieren. Zur Jahr-hundertmitte müsse der Ausstoß dann bei null

liegen. Zudem müsse der Anteil erneuerbarer Energieträger bis zur Mitte des Jahrhunderts von derzeit etwa 20 Prozent auf mindestens 70 bis 85 Prozent gesteigert werden. Der Anteil der Kohle müsste möglichst auf null sinken. […]

https://www.zeit.de/wissen/umwelt/2018-10/weltklimarat-ipcc-duerre-sonderbericht-erderwaermung

• The IPCC assesses available scientific, technical and socio-economic literature relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change

Published in peer-reviewed journals or eligible grey literatureIn most cases, it is sufficient to extract relevant information, findingsor data from manuscripts or reports

• But relying only on published manuscripts & supplementary materialfor quantitative scenarios across studies is challenging

Numerical results are not presented in the same data formatOnly a selection of numerical results presented in manuscript and SMe.g., only indicators of interest in relation to the research questionDefinitions and units differ across models and studies…

The IPCC assesses the state of knowledge on anthropogenic climate change and options for mitigation and adaption


Principles of assessment by the IPCC

• For the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Working Group III, IIASA andthe Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) collaboratedto compile a database of quantitative scenarios(implementation lead: Volker Krey & Peter Kolp)

• The database was used for the consistent assessmentof emission pathways and system transitions in AR5

For AR5, the IPCC, IAMC and IIASA compiled a databaseto underpin the assessment of quantitative scenarios


A scenario database for the IPCC AR5

IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014:Mitigation of Climate Change.

Contribution of Working Group IIIto the Fifth Assessment Report

Figure SPM.4 (Panel a) | Pathways of global GHG emissions (GtCO2eq/yr) in baseline and mitigation scenarios

Measures to ensure transparency of the assessment and underlying data:• Database publicly available for view and download: tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/AR5DB/• Documentation of the scenarios in

Krey, V., Masera, G., et al., 2014, Annex II: Metrics & Methodology.In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change.Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report

• Description of figure generation methods in supplementary material of the AR5

Shortcomings of the AR5 database in terms of usability and transparency:Scenario database is not state of the art for interactive web pagesNo intuitive citation for the data, and no acknowledgment for modelling teams as Annex or data authors (only references to their studies)Considerable effort required to reproduce figures and tablesTreatment of scenario database as statistical sample by some researchers

The AR5 scenario database is a valuable resource for research,but it didn’t follow all best-practice principles of open science


Caveats of the AR5 scenario assessment

https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/AR5DB/

• A new interactive online scenario explorer (development lead: Nikolay Kushin)Launched for the release of the SR15: data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer

• Assessment and generation of figures & tables using open-source notebooksCategorization of scenarios for the assessment was implemented by the Chapter Scientist for the authorsDevelopment of the Python package pyam for validation,assessment and plotting of IAM data (lead: Matt Gidden)

• Description of the process of compiling and assessingthe scenario ensemble, including “do’s and don’ts”

Commentary published in Nature Climate Change

• Documentation of modelling frameworks and scenariosDetails in the online scenario explorer and in an SR15 Annex

For SR15, we wanted to go one step beyond the efforts in AR5for more transparency and reproducibility of the assessment


A new integrated 1.5°C scenario resource

SR15, IPCC, 2018

https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

• Findable:Use proper recommended references including DOIs for data and notebooks(thanks to Luke Kirwan & Michaela Rossini!)

• Accessible:Make data and notebooks available for multiple levels of user sophistication:online scenario explorer, data download, notebooks as rendered website & on GitHub

• Interoperable:Use the data template developed by the IAMC (used for AR5, EMF, etc.)Assessment powered by installable open-source Python package pyam

• Reusable:Data released under license that enables researchNotebooks and Python package released under an open-source license

For more information on FAIRness:Wilkinson, M. D., et al. (2016). The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship. Scientific Data 3:160018. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2016.18

The SR15 scenario assessment implements the FAIR principles:make research Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable.


The FAIR principles of open science

https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.18

Using “workspaces” to manage figures & data tablesincluding pre-defined panels replicating SR15 figures

Visit the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer at https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer


The IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer


Socio-economic drivers across 1.5°C pathwaysSR15 Figure 2.4



IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer


Energy system transition in four illustrative pathwaysSR15 Figure 2.15





The scenario explorer has a feature for documentationof models, scenarios & variables (still work in progress)





Over the past decade, the integrated-assessment community (IAMC) developed a tabular data format used for model inter-comparison projects

High-profile use case: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)see https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/AR5DB/Used by ~20 research teams around the world

It’s not a great standard...No metadata, no sub-annual time resolution, bad scalability, ...But it’s easy to work with for non-experts, across platforms, ...And it’s the format we are stuck with in the IAM community...

The IAMC template for timeseries data

14

A B C D E F G H I

1 Model Scenario Region Variable Unit 2005 2010 2015 2020

2 MESSAGE CD-LINKS 400 World Primary Energy EJ/y 454.5 479.6 ... ...

A community effort for compiling and sharing scenario results


https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/AR5DB/

Socio-economic drivers across 1.5°C pathwaysin the Scenario Explorer and the SR15 (Figure 2.4)

Range of assumptions in the predefined Scenario Explorer workspace and the SR15


Comparing scenario assessment across tools

• Harmonization and visualization of emissions pathways in IAMsaneris for IAM harmonization: software.ene.iiasa.ac.at/anerispyam for plotting & visualization

Scientific reference:Matthew J. Gidden et al. (2018) A methodology andimplementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in IAMs.Environmental Modelling & Software 105:187-200. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.04.002

• Scenario assessment for the IPCC “Special Report on 1.5°C” (SR15)Completeness checks, data consistency validation, categorizationStatistical analysis on filtered data and plotting figures for reportAssessment and figures published togetherwith the full report for transparency and reproducibility

Implemented using best-practice of open-source, collaborative science

Joining forces across applications to develop a Python package

The pyam package for IAM analysis & visualization


http://software.ene.iiasa.ac.at/aneris

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.04.002

The scenario validation, categorization by warming outcome,and many SR15 tables and figures were implemented with pyam

See all notebooks in a rendered format at data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/sr15_scenario_analysis


Scenario assessment for the IPCC

https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/sr15_scenario_analysis

The scenario validation, categorization by warming outcome,and many SR15 tables and figures were implemented with pyam

See all notebooks in a rendered format at data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/sr15_scenario_analysis


Scenario assessment for the IPCC


Feel free to clone and play around with the analysis notebooks!

$ git clone https://github.com/iiasa/ipcc_sr15_scenario_analysis.git


Distribution of scenario assessments via GitHub

The scenarios were not designed to explore all possible developments;instead, they were compiled from a range of studies and reports.

Don’t interpret the scenario ensemble as a statistical sampleor in terms of likelihood or agreement in the literature.Don’t focus only on the medians,but consider the full range over the scenario set. Don’t cherry-pick individual scenarios to make general conclusions. Don’t over-interpret scenario resultsand don’t venture too far from the original research focus. Don’t conclude that the absence of a particular scenario(necessarily) means that this scenario is not feasible or possible.

The scenarios form an unstructured “ensemble of opportunity”,so one must be careful when drawing conclusions from the data

Quoted from Box 1, Huppmann et al. (2018), Nature Climate Change 8:1027-1030


The do’s & don'ts of scenario ensemble analysis

• A new interactive online scenario explorer Website: data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorerRecommended citation of the scenario explorer and data:D. Huppmann, E. Kriegler, V. Krey, K. Riahi, J. Rogelj, S.K. Rose, J. Weyant, et al. (2018)IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA. doi: 10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15429

• Assessment and generation of figures & tables using Jupyter notebooksRendered notebooks: data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/sr15_scenario_analysisGitHub repository: github.com/iiasa/ipcc_sr15_scenario_analysisRecommended citation of the notebooks:D. Huppmann et al. (2018). Scenario analysis notebooksfor the IPCC SR15. doi: 10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15428

Based on open-source package pyam: software.ene.iiasa.ac.at/pyam

• Description of the process of compiling and assessingthe scenario ensemble, including “do’s and don’ts”

D. Huppmann et al. (2018). A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research.Nature Climate Change, 8:1027-1030. doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4

Making it easy to dive into the IPCC scenario assessment

A suite of tools to work with 1.5°C scenarios


SR15, IPCC, 2018


https://doi.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15429


https://github.com/iiasa/ipcc_sr15_scenario_analysis/

https://doi.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15428

https://software.ene.iiasa.ac.at/pyam/

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

Dr. Daniel HuppmannResearch Scholar – Energy Program

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Laxenburg, Austria

[email protected]/staff/huppmann

Thank you very much for your attention!

This presentation is licensed undera Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.iiasa.ac.at/staff/huppmann

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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