open silcon valley - clean-tech is main-tech: how do you fit in the green economy - march 2009
TRANSCRIPT
Open Silicon Valley : March 2009
is cleantech maintech?Saul Griffith.Makanipower.com
"The Game Plan" slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008 67
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Dep
ress
ion.
Oil
Crise
s.
Rece
ssio
n.
Sep.
11.2
001.
Two stories : one global, one personal.
HOW MUCH POWERDO I USE?
MY 2007 LIFE:17027 Watts
SFO TO
LHR 410 W
LHR-SFO
410 W
SFO-ATL 160 W
ATL-SFO 160 W
SFO-ATL-CPH 510 W
HEL-AMS-ATL-SFO 570 W
OAK-OGG-HON-OAK 560 W
SFO-BOS 210 W
BOS-SFO 210 W
OAK-DC 180 W
DC-OAK 180 W
OAK-ORD-MON-QUE 210 WQUE-DTW-SFO 210 WSFO-JFK 200 WJFK-SFO 200 W
OAK-BUR 20 W
BUR-OAK 20 W
SFO-BOS 210 WBOS-ORD 70 WORD-SFO 140 WSFO-JFK 200 WJFK-SFO 200 W
SJC-SJO 230 W
SJO-SJC 230 W
SJC-VIJ 280 W
VIJ-SJC 280 W
SFO-SYD1140 W
SFO-DR 310 W
DR-SFO 3
10 W
SFO-O
AK 280 W
OAK-S
FO 2
80 W
'SFO TO LHR' 'LHR-SFO' 'SFO-ATL' 'ATL-SFO' 'SFO-ATL-CPH' 'HEL-AMS-ATL-SFO' 'OAK-OGG-HON-OAK' 'SFO-BOS' 'BOS-SFO' 'OAK-DC' 'DC-OAK' 'OAK-ORD-MON-QUE' 'QUE-DTW-SFO' 'SFO-JFK' 'JFK-SFO' 'OAK-BUR' 'BUR-OAK' 'SFO-BOS' 'BOS-ORD' 'ORD-SFO''SFO-JFK' 'JFK-SFO' 'SJC-SJO' 'SJO-SJC' 'SJC-VIJ' 'VIJ-SJC''SFO-SYD' 'SFO-DR' 'DR-SFO' 'SFO-OAK' 'OAK-SFO'
HOND
A IN
SIG
HT 3
10 W
DU
NE B
UG
GY V
W 1
50 W
TOYO
TA H
ILU
X 16
0 W
DO
DG
E SP
RIN
TER
100
WTO
YOTA
TAC
OM
A 24
0 W
TAXI
ORR
ENTA
L 47
0 W
SHO
WERS G
AS 70 WC
OO
KING
GAS 30 W
HEATIN
G G
AS 400 WFRID
GE ELEC
30 WC
OM
PUTER ELEC
10 WLAPTO
P ELEC 1 W
STEREO ELEC
1 WLIG
HTS ELEC
70 WO
THER ELEC
8 W
MEAT & EGGS 160 W
DAIRY 50 W
FATS AND OILS 30 WFRUIT, VEG & NUTS 90 W
CEREALS & GRAINS 10 W
SUGAR 20 WBEER & W
INE 60 W
COFFEE 20 WAG. PESTICIDES 10 W
AG. FERTILIZER 50 W
AG. ELECTRIC 40 W
AG. FOSSILFUELS 80 W
WORKELECTRIC 410 W
WORKHEAT 200 W
CARS 560 WBOATS 50 W
INTERNET 70 W
COMPUTERS 700 W
ELECTRONICS 250 W
NEWS 180 W
BIKES 6 WWATER 160 W
WASTEDISPOSAL 9 W TRANSPORTTOME 40 W
TEXTILES 90 W
BOOKS 130 W
MISCSTUFF1000 W
HOUSE 260 WRECREATION 110 W
HEALTHCARE 680 WFINANCE 60 WEDUCATION 340 W
WHITEGOODS 8 W
DEFENSE 100 W
ENERGY 4 W
GSA 2 W
HHS 1 W
JUSTICE 4 W
NASA 1 W
POSTAL-SERVICE 5 W
VETERANS-AFFAIRS 3 W
OTHER 4 W
STREETLIGHTS 4 W
GOV.VEHICLES 3 W
ROADS 330 W
OTHER 3 W
NON-
ACCO
UNTED
2960
W
Saul, 2007 =18000 Watts
Book
sheetsofpaper
framed art
CD
jewelcase
boardgame
New
sPapers
monthlymagazine
quarterlymagazine
projectionscreen
Mobile Phone
Desktop Computer
Laptop
Washing Machine
Refrigerator Oven
Dryer
House
Bicycles
Catam
aran
s
mot
orcy
cleh
elm
et
Gol
fClu
bs infla
tabl
eele
phan
t
Bik
emes
seng
erba
g m
otor
cycl
e su
rfboa
rd
golfb
all
golft
ee
tenn
isba
ll
tenn
isra
cket
Toot
hbru
sh
Sha
mpo
o (m
l) P
aper
cup
toot
hpas
te
cond
ition
er
teacandle detergentw
ashingpowder
toiletpaperroll clingw
rapsaran
aluminum
foil w
axedpaper S
hoes
Watch-C
oach W
oolenHat
t-shirt
pants coatjacket
socks woolhat
uggboots
crocsshoes
leathershoes w
idebrimhat
mensocks
menunderw
ear m
enshorts shirtm
enscollared cargopants
coverallsoveralls
beltleather
MenW
oolSuit
Table(Wood)
Chair
futonmattress
metalfutonfram
e
woodenfutonfram
e
Bookshelf w
oolenfloorrug
pillow
Sofabenchsittingkitchen
diningtable
chairdining sofabed
plantpotlarge
plantpotsmall stepstool
sidetable
KitchenPot
ricecooker
copperfryingpan
coppersaucepan kitchenknife
espressomachine
knifeblock
cuttingboard rollingpin
canopener
bottleopener
kitchenknives
coffeemug
tableknife
tablefork
teaspoon
soupspoons teapot
teakettle
sixcupFrench
butcherblock steelm
ug
ceramicm
ug
waterglass
saladplate bowl
dinnerplate
WineG
lass
cakestand
saladbowl
carvingset
woodenspoon
bamboospoon m
etalspatula rubberspatula
whisk key
paintroller
cellphonecover
powerstrip
deskphone
ToolChest
umbrella
conferencebag
suitcasecarry
artificialchristmastree
naturalchristmastree
aluminumstepladder
extensioncord
volkswagendunebuggy
toyotapickup
Honda Insight
TRAS
H
PHYSICAL STUFF ~2500 Watts
0 10 20 30 40 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 Qatar2 Iceland3 United Arab Emirates4 Bahrain5 Luxembourg6 Netherlands Antilles7 Kuwait8 Trinidad and Tobago9 Canada10 United States11 Brunei Darussalam12 Finland13 Norway14 Sweden15 Australia
16 Belgium17 Saudi Arabia18 Singapore19 Gibraltar20 Netherlands21 Oman22 France23 Russian Federation24 New Zealand25 Korea, Rep26 Czech Rep27 Germany28 Austria29 Japan30 United Kingdom31 Denmark32 Ireland33 Switzerland34 Estonia35 Turkmenistan36 Slovenia37 Slovakia38 Kazakhstan39 Cyprus40 Spain41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya42 Israel43 Italy44 Ukraine45 Greece46 Belarus47 Lithuania48 South Africa49 Hungary50 Bulgaria
kilo
wat
ts
Per Capita Energy Use 2003
US Average.
Global Average
Per capita power use 2003
If the average American were to leave home each morning with a backpack full of the fuel they need-ed for their day:
Oil = 10 kg = 23 lb.Coal = 10 kg = 23 lb.Gas = 200 cubic feet.
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ener
gy (T
W)
2007 Energy Consumption - Primary use by fuel type
Elec
tric
ity G
enTr
ansp
orta
tion
Indu
stry
Cooki
ngAir
Heatin
gIn
dust
rial S
team
Agric
ultu
re &
For
estr
yW
ater
Hea
ting
Ligh
tDis
trib
utio
n
Min
ing
OilCoalNatural GasBioHydroNuclearWindGeothermalSolarTidal
Which has led to this problem :
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
year
CO!
conc
entr
atio
n (p
pm)
CO! L
evel
(ppm
)
Year
Ice Core 20 year AverageLaw Dome Antarctica
Mauna Loa Direct MeasurementHawaii
0 10 20 30 40 50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA2 USSR3 CHINA_MAINLAND4 GERMANY_COMBINE5 JAPAN_COMBINE6 UNITED_KINGDOM7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO9 INDIA10 CANADA11 POLAND12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO14 SOUTH_AFRICA15 MEXICO
16 AUSTRALIA17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA18 BELGIUM19 SPAIN20 BRAZIL21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA22 NETHERLANDS23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN24 SAUDI_ARABIA25 INDONESIA26 ROMANIA27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA28 ARGENTINA29 VENEZUELA30 TURKEY31 UKRAINE32 TAIWAN33 AUSTRIA34 SWEDEN35 HUNGARY36 THAILAND37 DENMARK38 ALGERIA39 BULGARIA40 EGYPT41 GREECE42 SWITZERLAND43 NIGERIA44 MALAYSIA45 FINLAND46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES47 KAZAKHSTAN48 IRAQ49 COLOMBIA50 PAKISTAN
Cumulative National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning,Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2004
giga
met
ric to
ns o
f car
bon
Cumulative national CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce-ment manufacture, and gas flaring: 1751-2004
Out of equilibrium
AccessibleFossil Fuels1600 GtC
Soils3000 GtC
Vegetation700 GtC
Oceans40000 GtC
Atmosphere~700 GtC +2 / yr
Atmosphere to Ocean 2 GtC/year
Carbon to Atmosphere 8 GtC/year
Temperature Changes around the world in the last quarter of the 20th century
- 1 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.8 + 1
Trends in °C per decade
-1 -0.8 +0.8-0.6 +0.6-0.4 +0.4-0.2 +0.20 +1
What temperature do we choose?
?????
A1BA1TA1FIA2B1B2IS92a
Scenarios
21002000190018001700
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Tem
pera
ture
Ris
e, d
egre
es C
elsi
us.
Tem
pera
ture
Ris
e, d
egre
es C
elsi
us
Choose your target
10% Species Lost
1000ppm
750ppm
650ppm
550ppm
500ppm
450ppm
400ppm
Entire cities and countries lost to sea level
20-50% Species Lost1-4 Billion people face water shortages
15-40% Species Lost
2.0
650
550
450ppm
(year2000) 368
Preindustrial 280
What temperature did I choose?
+2oC
Effect on CO2 PPM1 Billion Tons Carbon +0.26
Terawatt Years (COAL) +0.198Terawatt Years (OIL) +0.155
Terawatt Years (GAS) +0.112
60 PPM to go (to 450)...
around 400 TW years of fossil fuel burning...
40 years at 10TW, 20 years at 20TW ...
The simplest climate model:
CO2ppmfuture = CO2ppmcurrent + 0.55 * (0.36*TWyrcoal + 0.28*TWyroil + 0.204*TWyrgas)
+ GTCdeforestation
Units shown in Terawatts (TW)
Energy production
Plants: 5.2
Tidal: 0.0005
Solar: 0.016
Wind: 0.06
Gas: 3.2 Coal: 3.6
Geothermal: 0.03
Nuclear: 1
Hydro: 0.36
Oil:5
18 TWHumanity
Global Exergy ConsumptionUnits shown in Terawatts
Other 2.5 Chemicals Metabolism Lighting Refrigeration
Electricity 1.7
Manufacturing & Industrial 3
Road & Rail 2.1
Heating & Cooking 2.3
Forestry 3
Global Energy Consumption
Agriculture 3.8
Units shown in Terawatts (TW) 18 TWHumanity
Sources of renewable energy.
31 000 TW Atmospheric Absorption
85 000 TW Surface Solar
62 TW Ocean surface waves
90 TW Photosynthesis
65 TW Land3 TW Coastal waves
7.2 TW Hydro Rivers
300 TW Hydro Clouds
25 TW Hydro Land
3600 TW Wind
41 000 TW Evaporation
38 000 TW Land & Water heating
3.5 TW Tidal
32 TW Geo thermal
25 TW Ocean
100 TW Ocean thermal gradient
16 TWGlobal consumption
2TW Fossil Fuels
2TW New Photo-Voltaic Solar
2TW New Solar Thermal
2TW New Wind
0.5TW New Other
Units shown in Terawatts (TW)2033 Energy Mix
Solar Thermal: 2
Fossil Fuels: 2
(carbon-free) Biofuels: 0.5
Existing Nuclear: 1Existing Hydro /
Renewables: 0.5
Wind:2
Nuclear: 3 Geothermal 2
Photo Voltaic Solar 2
15 TW
that looks workable...
what do we have to build?
2 TW New Photo Voltaic
100m"
100m"100m"
100m"100m"
100m"100m"100m"100m"100m"
100m"
100m
"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100m
"10
0m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"100m"
100m"100m" 100m" 100m" 100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100
m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100m"
100 m! of solar cells
every second for the next
25 years. 15% efficiency,
good sitting.
1 sec.
Photo Voltaic
2 TW New Solar Thermal
50m"50m"50m"
50m"50m"
50m"50m"50m"50m"50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50
m"
50
m"
50
m"
50
m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"50m"50m"
50m"50m" 50m" 50m" 50m" 50m" 50m
"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50
m"
50
m"
50
m"
50
m"
50
m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50m"
50
m"
! 25 years50 m! of solar thermal
mirrors every second for
the next 25 years. 30%
efficiency, well sited.
1 sec.
Solar Thermal
100m Diameter
100m Diameter100
m D
iam
eter
100
m D
iam
eter
100m Diameter
100m Diameter
100m Diameter
100
m D
iameter
100
m D
iameter
100m Diameter
12 3MW wind turbines in
great locations every hour.
Or one 100m diameter
turbine every 5 minutes…
6 min.
2 TW New Wind Wind
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
1
8765432
1615141312109
23222120191817
30292827262524
31
SATMarch
3 TW New Nuclear
1x 3GW Nuclear plant every
week for the next 25 years.
Nuclear
2 TW Geothermal
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
1
8765432
1615141312109
23222120191817
30292827262524
31
SATMarch
3x 100MW
steam turbines
every day for
next 25 years.
Geothermal
0.5 TW carbon (net zero) biofuels?.
1250m"
1250m"1250m"
1250m"1250m"1250m"1250m"1250m"1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250
m"
1250
m"
12
50
m"
12
50
m"
12
50
m"
12
50
m"
12
50
m"
1250
m"
1250
m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"1250m"
1250m" 1250m" 1250m" 1250m"1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
12
50
m"
12
50
m"
12
50
m"
12
50
m"
12
50
m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250m"
1250 m! or 1 olympic
swimming pool of algae
every second for the next
25 years.
1 sec.
Biofuel
Is that industrially possible?
what should Detroit do?
110 bn cans / year...= 200 GW solar thermal / year.
9 Nokia phones every second.Nokia + INTEL + AMD + + for solar PV?
GM = 1 car every 2 minutes.GM + FORD = 1 wind turbine every 5 minutes?
Retooling for WWII.
More than 300 000 aircraft were built in the US between 1939 and 1945.
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
5
10
15G
LOB
AL
PO
WE
R C
ON
SU
MP
TIO
N, T
W
10 TWin last40 years!
Land area by country represented as scaled stripes
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1600
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
equal land area per person globally represented as square
sauls square of land required for his watts generated by solarAverage US citizen square of land required for watts generated by solar
global average persons square of land to generate their energy with renewables
meters
met
ers
Land area per person in USA
Land area per person globally
Land area required to produce my power consumption with solar.
Land area for average US citizen by solar.
Land area for average global citizen by solar.
MY 2007 LIFE17027 W (pre tax)
SFO TO
LHR 410 W
LHR-SFO
410 W
SFO-ATL 160 W
ATL-SFO 160 W
SFO-ATL-CPH 510 W
HEL-AMS-ATL-SFO 570 W
OAK-OGG-HON-OAK 560 W
SFO-BOS 210 W
BOS-SFO 210 W
OAK-DC 180 W
DC-OAK 180 W
OAK-ORD-MON-QUE 210 WQUE-DTW-SFO 210 WSFO-JFK 200 WJFK-SFO 200 W
OAK-BUR 20 W
BUR-OAK 20 W
SFO-BOS 210 WBOS-ORD 70 WORD-SFO 140 WSFO-JFK 200 WJFK-SFO 200 W
SJC-SJO 230 W
SJO-SJC 230 W
SJC-VIJ 280 W
VIJ-SJC 280 W
SFO-SYD1140 W
SFO-DR 310 W
DR-SFO 3
10 W
SFO-O
AK 280 W
OAK-S
FO 2
80 W
'SFO TO LHR' 'LHR-SFO' 'SFO-ATL' 'ATL-SFO' 'SFO-ATL-CPH' 'HEL-AMS-ATL-SFO' 'OAK-OGG-HON-OAK' 'SFO-BOS' 'BOS-SFO' 'OAK-DC' 'DC-OAK' 'OAK-ORD-MON-QUE' 'QUE-DTW-SFO' 'SFO-JFK' 'JFK-SFO' 'OAK-BUR' 'BUR-OAK' 'SFO-BOS' 'BOS-ORD' 'ORD-SFO''SFO-JFK' 'JFK-SFO' 'SJC-SJO' 'SJO-SJC' 'SJC-VIJ' 'VIJ-SJC''SFO-SYD' 'SFO-DR' 'DR-SFO' 'SFO-OAK' 'OAK-SFO'
HOND
A IN
SIG
HT 3
10 W
DU
NE B
UG
GY V
W 1
50 W
TOYO
TA H
ILU
X 16
0 W
DO
DG
E SP
RIN
TER
100
WTO
YOTA
TAC
OM
A 24
0 W
TAXI
ORR
ENTA
L 47
0 W
SHO
WERS G
AS 70 WC
OO
KING
GAS 30 W
HEATIN
G G
AS 400 WFRID
GE ELEC
30 WC
OM
PUTER ELEC
10 WLAPTO
P ELEC 1 W
STEREO ELEC
1 WLIG
HTS ELEC
70 WO
THER ELEC
8 W
MEAT & EGGS 160 W
DAIRY 50 W
FATS AND OILS 30 WFRUIT, VEG & NUTS 90 W
CEREALS & GRAINS 10 W
SUGAR 20 WBEER & W
INE 60 W
COFFEE 20 WAG. PESTICIDES 10 W
AG. FERTILIZER 50 W
AG. ELECTRIC 40 W
AG. FOSSILFUELS 80 W
WORKELECTRIC 410 W
WORKHEAT 200 W
CARS 560 WBOATS 50 W
INTERNET 70 W
COMPUTERS 700 W
ELECTRONICS 250 W
NEWS 180 W
BIKES 6 WWATER 160 W
WASTEDISPOSAL 9 W TRANSPORTTOME 40 W
TEXTILES 90 W
BOOKS 130 W
MISCSTUFF1000 W
HOUSE 260 WRECREATION 110 W
HEALTHCARE 680 WFINANCE 60 WEDUCATION 340 W
WHITEGOODS 8 W
DEFENSE 100 W
ENERGY 4 W
GSA 2 W
HHS 1 W
JUSTICE 4 W
NASA 1 W
POSTAL-SERVICE 5 W
VETERANS-AFFAIRS 3 W
OTHER 4 W
STREETLIGHTS 4 W
GOV.VEHICLES 3 W
ROADS 330 W
OTHER 3 W
NON-
ACCO
UNTED
2960
W
Saul, 2007 =18000 Watts
Also contains per bottle
Plasticizers 43mg†Estrogen 0.12mg†Carcinogenic Dye 0.19mg†
† Safe daily values not yet established.
Consumption FactsContainer Mass 1.58oz (44.9g)Components per container 3
Embodied Energy Per Container
Total 4,609,420 Joules
PETE 38.81g 3,962,400 JoulesHDPE 4.83g 497,500 JoulesCellulosic 1.34g 149,520 Joules
Recycle rate 23%
Landfill rate 43%
Energy recovery rate 16%
Lost to environmental waste 18%
Personal Energy Footprint % Daily Value*
Total 4.54%
Transport (avg.estimated) 0.69%
Manufacture 0.46%
Embodied Energy 2.67%
Refrigeration (avg.estimated) 0.71%
* Personal Energy Footprint is based on a recommended 2000 Watt lifestyle. The average US consumer has a 11400 Watt lifestyle.! Consuming this product daily is equivalent to increasing your energy footprint by 90 Watts.
1 Joule of fossil energy used produces 4.9x10-21 ppm increase.
How many ppm to replace every gasoline car in the world (1bN) with a 1000kg electric vehicle? = 0.49 ppm
How many ppm for 250 million new green homes? = 8.9 ppm
How many ppm for installing :
5TW solar = 6.1 ppm3TW wind = 0.55 ppm2TW geothermal = 0.49 ppm
So there is + 19 ppm right there. Scary.
Might be good to ask questions of form:
How many ppm for 6 bN new laptops? = 0.05 ppm6 bN cellphones? = 0.03 ppm6 bN 100 Watt lightbulbs burning for 1 year? = 0.2ppm
is cleantech maintech?
Not even close.Not until the scale is so massive, that people are protesting it.
Design for the age of consequence.
wattzon.comMeasure what is measureable, make measure-able what is not. - Galileo
100 mpg ?20 Miles per day.
500Watts.
2255 Watt thinking:
55mph
100kph