open and online education - chances and challenges for higher education
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Presentation for the Dutch Ministery of Education on the developments in Open and Online Education and the chances and challenges for public higher education.TRANSCRIPT
Transform to the power of digital
Open Online Education Chances & Challenges for Higher Education NL
Timo Kos
@timokos
/timokos
Capgemini Consulting Marketleader Education
slideshare.net/timokos
/timokos or /mooc-scoop
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
Content
1. Open Online Education
2. A brief history
3. Disruptive Innovation?
4. Strategic scenario‟s
2
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3
Open Online Education: four related and interacting developments
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Content
1. Open Online Education
2. A brief history
3. Disruptive Innovation?
4. Strategic scenario‟s
4
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
Open Distance Learning (ODL): dating back to the early 20th and 18 & 19th century Now dominated by the Open Universities
5
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Online Education: growing marketshare
6
‘Going the distance. Online Education in the United States, 2011’ (Infographic by Pearson Learning Solutions)
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7
Online (Distance) Learning: popular programs & courses
Table from ‘Study of UK online learning final report’, University of Oxford, 2010
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Online (Distance) Learning: student perspective
8
‘Online College Students 2012’, The Learning House and Aslanian Market Research
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9
President Charles Vest
MIT, 2001
“All courses for free,
On line”
Open Educational Resources: how it started
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OpenCourseWare (OCW)
“a free and open educational resource for faculty, students, and self-learners throughout the world.”
Open Content
Open
Educational
Resources
OCW
Open Educational Resources: Definitions
Open Educational Resources (OER)
„materials offered freely and openly to use and
adapt for teaching, learning, development and
research‟
Open Content
'freely available for modification, use and
redistribution‟
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Open Course Ware Consortium: 274 members (dec 2012)
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Open Educational Resources: growth of the number of open courses
12
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MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (I) A. Early pioneers (2007/2008) of connectivism & social learning (now cMOOC)
13
David Wiley (Brigham Young University)
George Siemens (Athabasca University)
Stephen Downes (National Research Councel Canada)
Proponents of connectivism use the web to explore the possibilities of open & social (‘networked’) learning
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MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II) B. Pioneers (2011-2012) of free massive open online classes (now xMOOCs)
14
Salman Khan
Prof. Peter Norvig & Prof. Sebastian Thrun (Stanford)
Prof Andrew Nge & Prof. Daphne Koller (Stanford)
Prof. Anant Agarwal (MIT)
These proponents use the web to provide traditionally structured online courses for free and aim to ‘disrupt higher education and open it up to the masses’.
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
xMOOC platforms: Technology start-ups building new digital distribution channels for ‘open’ online education...
15
Founded: April 2012 Founder: Koller & Nge (Stanford professors) Company: For profit Funding: $22 million (Venture Capitalist) # Universities: 70 # Courses: 400 # Topics: All academic fields # Students: 3,6 million Certification: Yes (most) Proctored examination: Yes, (5 accredited courses + partnership with ProctorU) Open Source: No (licenced)
Founded: May 2012 Founders: MIT & Harvard Company: Not- for-profit Funding: $60 million (Harvard / MIT: 30 each) # Universities: 27 # Courses: 20 # topics: ICT, Engineering, Health #students: ca. 1 miljoen Certification: Yes Proctoree examination: Yes (450 CBT locations in 110 countries via partnership with Pearson VUE) Open Source: Partly (licenced)
Founded: January 2012 Founder: Sebastian Thrun (ex Stanford professor) Company: For profit Funding: $15 million (Venture Capital) # Universities: none # Courses: 22 # Topics: ICT & STEM # Students: ca. 1 miljoen Certification: Yes Proctored examination: Yes (4000 CBT locations in 170 countries via partnership with Pearson VUE) Open Source: No (licenced)
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0 5 10 15 20
#1 - Harvard University
#3 - MIT
#4 - University of California- Berkley
#27 - University of Toronto
#35 - The University of Texas at Austin
#63 - McGill University
#64 - Australian National University
#91 - Rice University
#101-150 - École Polyt. Lausanne
#201-300 - Delft University of Tech.
#301-400 - Georgetown University
-# - Wellesley College
Number of courses announced or offered
Certificate after completion
Official on-campus course
Non-official course
Textbook digital available 0 5 10 15 20
Stanford University - #2
California Institute of Technology - #6
Princeton University - #7
Columbia University - #8
University of Pennsylvania - #14
University of California, San Diego - #15
University of Washington - #16
Johns Hopkins University - #17
University of California, San Francisco - #18
University of Wisconsin–Madison - #19
The University of Tokyo - #20
University of Michigan - #22
University of Illinois at Urbana-Ch. - #25
University of Toronto - #27
University of Minnesota - #29
Northwestern University - #30
University of Colorado Boulder - #33
Duke University - #36
University of Maryland, College Park - #38
The University of British Columbia -#39
The University of North Carolina - #41
University of Copenhagen - #44
University of California, Irvine -#45
Pennsylvania State University - #49
Vanderbilt University - #50 NO certificate after compl.
March 2013
Accredited course
.. partnering with top universtities of the Shanghai Ranking (ARWU) (25 from the top 50, including 7 from the top 10)
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…experimenting with online didactics from other successfull open education start-ups…
17
Founded: 2006 Founder: Salman Khan Company: non-profit Funding: $ 10 million
(Philantropists) # Courses: 3000+ weblectures (200 million + views) # Topics: Math, Science, History Art, etc.. # Students: ca. 8 million Certification: NO Proctoreed examination: NO Revenue Model: Non-profit Open Source: Yes
Founded: 2009 Founder: Phillip Schmidt Company: non-profit Funding: unknown (Philantropists) # Courses: 6 schools on open learning # Topics: Open Data, Education Webcraft Social Innovation Mathematical Future # Students: 30.000 Certification: NO Proctoreed examination: NO Revenue Model: Non-profit Open Source: Yes
Founded: 2011 Founders: Zach Sims and Ryan Bubinski Company: for-profit Funding: $ 12,5 million (Venture
Capital) # Courses: 5 # Topics: Javascript HTML & CSS Python, Ruby JQuery # Students: 550.000 Certification: NO Proctoreed examination: NO Revenue Model: Referral fee’s Open Source: No (licenced)
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… AND introducing new (non-formal) types of HE certificates issued for automatically and/or peer-graded exams.
18
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Monetization strategies for MOOCs
license model: a share of gross revenue between platform provider and universities offering courses hosted on the platform for tuition paid degee programs or fees for additional services to students (e.g. coaching)
Administrative fees: for certification on proctored exam locations
Recruitment fees: from corporations for recruiting talented students
Premium/Fremium model: free and upgraded paid versions of the MOOCs and services, resembling the ‘freemium’ and ‘premium’ payment models of other internet services
Advertisement: monetizing on the scale and social characteristics of users of the platform.
19
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Content
1. Focus
2. A brief history
3. Disruptive Innovation?
4. Strategic scenario‟s
20
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What will be the impact of Open Online Education on global & local Higher Education?
21
Is it a HYPE or a DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION?
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xMOOC platforms viewed from Gartners technology hypecycle perspective …
22
Browsers
Social Media
You Tube
Web Cams
MOOCs do not fit the characteristics of a technology hype
(although the media attention they receive do fit the characteristics of a media hype)
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
The theory of ʺdisruptive innovationʺ
Online Education viewed from Christensens’s disruptive innovation perspective...
„A process by which a product or service
takes root initially in simple applications
at the bottom of a market and then
relentlessly moves „up market‟, eventually
displacing established competitors”
‒ Professor Clayton M. Christensen,
Harvard Business School
Author of Disrupting Class (2008) and The Innovative University (2011)
Low ranked (under) graduate degree programs
High ranked (under) graduate degree programs
Top ranked (under) graduate degree programs
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
… and predicting exponential growth in the coming decade.
Source: ‘Disrupting College’ (C. Christensen e.a., feb 2011)
24
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The value propositons of OCW, MOOCs and Online Education compared:
25
Traditional education
(on-campus, f2f)
OpenCourseWare xMOOCs Online (Distance)
Learning Accessibility Selective/inclusive: (high) tuition,
admission requirements
Free and open access for everyone Free and open access for everyone Selective/inclusive: (high) tuition,
admission requirements
Instruction / classes Offline
(inflexible schedule)
Online courses, web-lectures &
digital learning materials
Online classes &
digital learning materials
Online courses
(flexible schedule),
Interaction between
students
Yes, mainly f2f & off-line No, self learners Yes,peer-to-peer via online
learning platforms and social
media and ‘MOOC-meetups’
Yes, online learning platforms,
virtual classrooms, and social
media
Quality Control Yes, Accreditation Yes: for content
No for process
No, only by reputation
(professor / ranking)
Yes, Accreditation
Interaction between
studens & faculty
Yes, (mainly ) off-line & on-campus No Yes, online learning platforms and
social media
Yes, online learning platforms and
social media
Exercises Yes, both individual and in groups Yes, as static teaching materials
(no student feedback)
Yes, online excercises (quizes) with
automated answers & feedback
Yes, revised by teacher/faculty
staff
Exams Yes, on campus & graded by faculty
staff
Yes, as static teaching materials
(no grading)
Yes, online & computer graded or
by peer-grading
Yes, online and graded by faculty
staff
Identity verification Yes, on campus No Yes: proctored exams in computer
based testing centres
Yes, through online or on campus
identification process
Deadlines Yes, fixed terms (semesters,
trimesters)
No Yes, dedicated course periods
during the year as well as deadlines
for homework & exams
Yes, several starting dates during
the year as well as deadlines for
homework & exams during coures
Certificate
Yes, Accredited No Yes, ACE accredited certificate
(only 5). Rest non-formal certificate
of accomplishment
Yes, Accredited
Degree
Yes, Accredited No Yes (not yet) Yes, Accredited
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The future? Early adoptors are positioning themselves for a new and truly global market for massive (low price) formal certificate & degree awarding online education
26
Traditional universities
Time
Ma
rket
seg
men
ts
cMOOC For Profit Universities
Self Learner Population (badges)
Certificate seeking (non-formal)
Degree & Certificate
seeking (formal)
F2F Campus (formal)
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And the future is already here: Georgia Institute of Technology & Udacity
27
• Accredited Massive Online Master Degree Program
• Price: $ 7000,- in stead of $ 40.000 per year
• Number of students: 10.000 in stead of 300 per year
• Number of faculty extra: 8 at Georgia Tech (for content)
• Revenu model: 60% for Georgia Tech, 40% for Udactity
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
So are MOOCs a disruptive innovation for the online (distance) learning market? YES
28
1. MOOCs are distributed through new digital channels with a potential of attracting millions of visitors,
creating valuable digital channels with the potential of new (low price) revenu models that are common in
the internet economy (scale now, monetize later).
2. MOOCs serve a global mass market with a new value proposition that till recently was not available or
affordable for large groups of students around the world.
3. Some of the MOOC courses provide the same content as on campus courses, and claim to be of the
same academic quality.
4. MOOCs are not equal to a campus education, but a stripped down version targeted at a
studentpopulation who do not need the full value offered at the high end of the market
5. MOOCs are produced using widely accepted internet technology which enable any lecturer with a high
academic reputation to produce a MOOC by themselve and reach a potentially unlimited number of
students at a fraction of the cost per student that are needed for delivering traditional (online) university
lectures.
6. MOOCs offer a supplement to on-campus courses and are already being integrated in credited
(bachelor) degree programs.
7. MOOCs are replacing parts of the regular campus curriculum and thereby start to alter the business
model and operating model of brick-and-mortar universities (leading to speciliazation between
universities).
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
Content
1. Open Online Education
2. A brief history
3. Disruptive Innovation?
4. Strategic scenario‟s
29
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
What will be the possible financial impact on universities?
30
Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Outlook Higher Education Institutions USA, US Public Finance, Sept 2012
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
Nyenrode Business University
MIT
TUD
Stanford
Universiteit
Leiden
Higher Education marketsegments – focus versus motive
31
Academ
ic
Pro
fessio
nal
Profit Not-for-profit
Fo
cu
s o
f q
ualifi
cati
on
Motive
Duisenberg School of Finance
Phoenix University
Kaplan University
NCOI
University of Liverpool
OU
HS Inholland
Universidad Europea de Madrid
Avans
INSEAD
Liberty U
NTI
DeVry
University of Southern California
University of Notre Dame
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Nyenrode Business University
MIT
TU Delft
Stanford
Universiteit
Leiden
Where do the MOOC Platforms fit in these markets for online higher education?
32
Acad
em
ic
(sele
ctive)
Pro
fessio
nal
(inclu
siv
e)
For-Profit Not-for-profit
Focus o
f qualif
ication
Motive
Duisenberg School of Finance
Phoenix University
Kaplan University
NCOI
University of Liverpool
Open
University
HS Inholland
Universidad Europea de Madrid
Avans
INSEAD
Liberty U
NTI
DeVry
University of Notre Dame
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
Nyenrode Business University
Duisenberg School of Finance
Universidad Europea de Madrid
MIT Delft University of
Technology
Stanford Erasmus University
Rotterdam
When viewed as a disruptive innovation, an early adoption strategy for massive online education differs per market-segment
33
Acad
em
ic
(sele
ctive)
Pro
fessio
nal
(inclu
siv
e)
Profit Not-for-profit
Focus o
f qualif
ication
Motive
Phoenix University
Kaplan University
NCOI
Amsterdam University of Applied Science
Open University
Saxion University of Applied Science
LEVERAGE
GLOBAL
REPUTATION
ADD. PROF
NETWORK
SERVICES
LOCALLY
APPLIED
SCIENCES
LOW PRICE
FIGHT
MARKET
Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.
Transform to the power of digital
Timo Kos, Principal Consultant Market Leader Education & Employability NL
Timo Kos
Phone: +31 (0)30 6897540 Mobile: +31 (0)6 47924140 [email protected]
http://linkedin.com/in/timokos
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