online, that is. go on! the show must...the show must go on! online, that is. preparing for a...
TRANSCRIPT
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The show must go on!
Online, that is.
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Preparing for a Changing Whidbey
The Island’s Real Estate, Affordability, and Trends
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If only the world was this simple
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Cautions Caveats And Clarifications“houses are up” or down, or whatever
But is that:
● the number being built● the number on the market● the number sold● the median list price, or the median sales price● the average list price, or the average sales price● for the last decade, year, quarter, week, day, hour● for the country, the region, the state, the county, the island, your town, your neighborhood,
your house?
Ah, statistics; so easily misunderstood. Let’s look at some anyway.
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An estimate is an estimate is an estimate
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Median Sales Price - Whidbey Island
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Price Per Square Foot - Whidbey Island
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Median Sales Price - By Property Type
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Days On Market - By Property Type
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Homes For Sale - Supply
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Population Changes - Demand
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Homes For Sale - By Price
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Days On Market - By Price
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Homes For Sale - By Square Footage
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Days On Market - By Square Footage
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Homes For Sale - By Bedrooms
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Days On Market - By Bedrooms
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Homes For Sale - By Lot Size
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Days On Market - By Lot Size
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Whidbey By Area
But enough about Whidbey in general.
What about North / Central / South Whidbey?
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Median Sales Price - North, Central, South
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Price Per Square Foot - North, Central, South
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Homes For Sale - North, Central, South
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Homes For Sale Monthly Variation - North, Central, South
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Days On Market - North, Central, South
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Hello Clinton
How much of a difference does the ferry (plus too many other variables) make?
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Median Sales Price - Clinton And Mukilteo
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Price Per Square Foot - Clinton And Mukilteo
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Hello Langley
Langley (98260) vs Langley (city limits) vs Langley (“downtown”)
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Median Sales Price - Langley, Langley, Langley
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Price Per Square Foot - Langley, Langley, Langley
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Hello Freeland
Thanks to west side views and Holmes Harbor
- lots of waterfront makes a difference
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Median Sales Price - Freeland Waterfront
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Price Per Square Foot - Freeland Waterfront
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Hello Coupeville
How much does noise matter - so far?
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Coupeville - In And Out Of The Noise
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Homes For Sale - Coupeville In And Out Of The Noise
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Median Sales Price - Coupeville In And Out Of The Noise
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Price Per Square Foot - Coupeville In And Out Of The Noise
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Hello Oak Harbor
Where to put all these people?
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Oak Harbor - Homes For Sale
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Oak Harbor - Months Of Inventory By Price
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Island And Regional Affordability
Whidbey Island has an affordability issue,
but what about the other islands?
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Island Affordability
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Regional Affordability
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Regional Supply
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Pacific Rim Pressure
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Scenarios
The only constant is change
Coronavirus/Covid-19
Military
Tourism
Regional Economy
Nature
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Scenario - Coronavirus/Covid-19● Too few saw this coming● unemployment● troops on deployment● retiree communities● tourism/escapees● rural distancing● resources
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Scenario - military● personnel changes● drones● resource limits● politics● waterfront with an airport and a harbor
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Scenarios - Tourism● switching from cruises to land● rural island refuge● high-end market niche ● travel restrictions● border issues
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Scenarios - Regional Economy● Boeing (Everett v Renton)● Amazon● shipping● trade● remote
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Scenarios - Nature● quakes - land drops● tsunamis - water rises● slides - land slides● storms - water and wind● saltwater intrusion - water and septic
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Island Demographics And Economics
It all comes down to people and money (and location, location, location.)
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Generational Transition
Island County Housing Needs Analysis 2017https://www.islandcountywa.gov/Planning/Documents/GMA-13154%20Island%20County%20Housing%20Needs%20Analysis%202017_1129.pdf
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Income And Affordability
Island County Housing Needs Analysis 2017https://www.islandcountywa.gov/Planning/Documents/GMA-13154%20Island%20County%20Housing%20Needs%20Analysis%202017_1129.pdf
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Vacancy Rate
Island County Housing Needs Analysis 2017https://www.islandcountywa.gov/Planning/Documents/GMA-13154%20Island%20County%20Housing%20Needs%20Analysis%202017_1129.pdf
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Vacancy - Global ResponseVancouver 1% taxable valueSan Francisco TBDVictoria, Australia 1% taxable valueHong Kong 15% feeNew York City 0.5%-4% surchargeWashington D.C. > $3/$100 assessed valueLondon proposed doubled property taxParis 60% of equivalent rent
https://www.fastcompany.com/90305242/taxing-empty-apartments-could-ease-the-housing-crisishttps://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/empty-homes-tax.aspxhttps://www.govtech.com/fs/infrastructure/Are-Vacant-Property-Taxes-Effective-in-the-Fight-Against-Blight.htmlhttps://theconversation.com/taxing-empty-homes-a-step-towards-affordable-housing-but-much-more-can-be-done-80742https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/09/nyregion/pied-a-terre-tax-ny.htmlhttps://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/22/empty-homes-council-tax-rise-unlikely-to-deter-rich-owners-say-critics
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Homelessness
City of Langley Comprehensive Planhttps://www.langleywa.org/Final%20Complete%20Draft%203.5.2018.pdf
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Technology AdvancesTechnological responses to typical limits to growth on Whidbey Island
● Water○ grey water, catchment, recycling
● Sanitation○ innovative septic systems, composting, incinerating toilets
● Commuting○ remote work enabled by high-speed internet (Whidbey Tel’s Big GiG)
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Inertia
People don’t want to sell until they can find something to buy, but there’s little to buy because so few are willing to sell.
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SummaryOf course, Whidbey Island is changing. Change is the only constant.
The island won’t change.
The people will. The economy will. Housing will.
How it changes is up to people, both those on and off the island.
The island is no longer as isolated as it was 40 years ago. In another 40…?
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ContactTom Trimbath - Real Estate Broker with Coldwell Banker Tara Properties
(as well as Consultant, Writer, Speaker, Teacher, Photographer, Engineer, Entrepreneur, etc.)[email protected] (425) 765-6295
cbtara.com/office/1736/agents
Also on:
● Facebook - Trimbath Creative Enterprises● Twitter - @tetrimbath● LinkedIn - Tom Trimbath● blogs
○ TrimbathCreative.net - personal finance for frugal folk○ PretendingNotToPanic.com - news for the anxious and eager○ AboutWhidbey.com - island living from an islander’s perspective