olly downs-sic-2011

Download Olly downs-sic-2011

If you can't read please download the document

Post on 22-Jan-2015

674 views

Category:

Technology

2 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Olly Down's presentation at Seattle Interactive Conference 2011.

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1. MoneyballHow buying by On Base Percentagerather than RBIs drives results in Display Advertising Olly DownsConsulting Chief Scientist, AdReady 1

2. THE ART OF WINNINGAN UNFAIR GAME2002 New York Yankees 2002 Oakland Athletics 2 3. THE ART OF WINNINGAN UNFAIR GAME$125,000,000$41,000,0002002 New York Yankees 2002 Oakland Athletics 2 4. WHY? BASEBALL & DIGITAL ADVERTISINGBaseballDigital AdvertisingRunsActionsGoal(more than opponent) (more than alternative)AssetPlayersMedia / DataBudgetPlayer Salaries Media Purchased9 InningsConstraintCampaign Duration(27 outs) 3 5. WHY?BASEBALL & DIGITAL ADVERTISINGBaseballDigital Advertising RBI (runs-batted-in)How to EvaluateeCPC / eCPA OBP (on-base-percentage)The Premium Strategy A-RodHome Pages / SponsorshipsThe Non-Obvious Find Undervalued Talent/Use DifferentFind Undervalued,StrategyMetricsNon-Obvious Sites/Segments Pick More Mature Players or IdentifyIntelligently Initialize and/or Quickly Adapt/Commonalities of Younger Players with Optimize Campaign Parameters Known Players 4 6. MONEYBALLSTRATEGY5 7. MONEYBALLSTRATEGY We might want to buy runs, but we benet from players who get on base Purchase Established Players based on different metrics OBP vs. HR Selectively draft College Baseball players rather than High School Players stable statistics Buying High School Players, look for similarities with mature players who have the right metrics 5 8. MONEYBALLSTRATEGY We might want to buy runs, but we benet from players who get on base Purchase Established Players based on different metrics OBP vs. HR Selectively draft College Baseball players rather than High School Players stable statistics Buying High School Players, look for similarities with mature players who have the right metrics 5 9. MONEYBALLSTRATEGY We might want to buy runs, but we benet from players who get on base Purchase Established Players based on different metrics OBP vs. HR Selectively draft College Baseball players rather than High School Players stable statistics Buying High School Players, look for similarities with mature players who have the right metrics Its been 9 years since the Oakland As incredible season Moneyball principles have garnered signicant adoption across MLB BUT inefciencies still exist 5 10. THE EFFICIENT FRONTIERBASEBALL 100% Signing Probability 50%Salary Offered0% 6 11. THE EFFICIENT FRONTIERBASEBALLWhat at least one other team is willing to pay 100% Signing Probability 50%Salary Offered0% 6 12. THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER WBASEBALL 100% Signing Probability 50%Salary Offered0% 6 13. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-COST, HIGH PERFORMANCE PLAYERS7 14. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-COST, HIGH PERFORMANCE PLAYERS Top 10 players Players by Salary Team SalaryAlex RodriguezNew York Yankees$32,000,000 By 2011 Salary Vernon Wells Los Angeles Angels $26,642,857CC Sabathia New York Yankees$24,285,714Mark Teixeira New York Yankees$23,125,000Todd Helton Colorado Rockies$20,275,000Miguel CabreraDetroit Tigers$20,000,000Roy Halladay Philadelphia Phillies$20,000,000Ryan HowardPhiladelphia Phillies$20,000,000Alfonso Soriano Chicago Cubs$19,000,000Carlos LeeHouston Astros$19,000,0007 15. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-COST, HIGH PERFORMANCE PLAYERS Top 10 players Players by AVGTeam SalarySkip SchumakerSt Louis Cardinals $2,750,000 By 2011 Salary Jimmy RollinsPhiladelphia Phillies $8,500,000 By 2011 Batting AverageChase UtleyPhiladelphia Phillies$15,285,714Jorge PosadaNew York Yankees$13,100,000Brett Gardner New York Yankees$529,500Ryan Braun Milwaukee Brewers $4,287,500Kelly ShoppachTampa Bay Rays $3,000,000David FreeseSt Louis Cardinals$416,000Chris YoungArizona Diamondbacks$5,200,000Magglio Ordonez Detroit Tigers$10,000,0007 16. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-COST, HIGH PERFORMANCE PLAYERS Top 10 players Players by HR TeamSalaryJose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays $8,000,000 By 2011 Salary Matt Kemp Los Angeles Dodgers $7,100,000 By 2011 Batting AverageMark ReynoldsBaltimore Orioles$5,333,333Dan UgglaAtlanta Braves $9,146,942 By 2011 Home RunsMike StantonFlorida Marlins$416,000Jacoby EllsburyBoston Red Sox $2,400,000Jay Bruce Cincinnati Reds $2,791,667Michael Morse Washington Nationals$1,050,000Paul KonerkoChicago White Sox$12,000,000Troy TulowitzkiColorado Rockies $5,500,000 7 17. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-COST, HIGH PERFORMANCE PLAYERS Top 10 players Players by OBPTeamSalaryJose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays $8,000,000 By 2011 SalaryMatt Kemp Los Angeles Dodgers $7,100,000 By 2011 Batting AverageMark ReynoldsBaltimore Orioles$5,333,333Dan UgglaAtlanta Braves $9,146,942 By 2011 Home RunsMike StantonFlorida Marlins$416,000 By On Base PercentageJacoby EllsburyJay Bruce Boston Red SoxCincinnati Reds$2,400,000$2,791,667Michael Morse Washington Nationals$1,050,000Paul KonerkoChicago White Sox$12,000,000Troy TulowitzkiColorado Rockies $5,500,000 7 18. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-COST, HIGH PERFORMANCE PLAYERS Top 10 playersPlayers by OBP TeamSalaryJose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays $8,000,000 By 2011 SalaryMatt Kemp Los Angeles Dodgers $7,100,000 By 2011 Batting AverageMark ReynoldsBaltimore Orioles$5,333,333Dan UgglaAtlanta Braves $9,146,942 By 2011 Home RunsMike StantonFlorida Marlins$416,000 By On Base PercentageJacoby EllsburyJay Bruce Boston Red SoxCincinnati Reds$2,400,000$2,791,667Michael Morse Washington Nationals$1,050,000Paul KonerkoChicago White Sox$12,000,000Troy TulowitzkiColorado Rockies $5,500,000 Optimizing these metrics and combinations of them at all costs is great if you dont have a constrained budget 7 19. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-PERFORMANCE PER DOLLAR PLAYERS8 20. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-PERFORMANCE PER DOLLAR PLAYERS Now lets look at the Top 10 Players per $ against the same metrics Top 10 batters Per $ Players by AVG/$ Team2011 SalaryDavid Freese St Louis Cardinals$416,000 By 2011 Batting Average Ryan RobertsArizona Diamondbacks $423,500Brett GardnerNew York Yankees$529,500Jason JaramilloPittsburgh Pirates$422,500Jason Donald Cleveland Indians $423,200Don KellyDetroit Tigers$423,000Lucas Duda New York Mets $414,000Starlin Castro Chicago Cubs$440,000Emilio BonifacioFlorida Marlins$425,000Jason BourgeoisHouston Astros$423,0008 21. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-PERFORMANCE PER DOLLAR PLAYERS Now lets look at the Top 10 Players per $ against the same metrics Top 10 batters Per $ Players by HR/$Team 2011 SalaryMark TrumboLos Angeles Angels $414,000 By 2011 Batting AverageMike Stanton Florida Marlins$416,000 By 2011 Home RunsAndrew McCutchenPittsburgh Pirates$452,500Neil Walker Pittsburgh Pirates$437,000Carlos SantanaCleveland Indians $416,600J.P. ArencibiaToronto Blue Jays $417,400Freddie Freeman Atlanta Braves$414,000Gaby Sanchez Florida Marlins$431,000Logan Morrison Florida Marlins$414,000Danny Valencia Minnesota Twins$437,500 8 22. EFFICIENT FRONTIERHIGH-PERFORMANCE PER DOLLAR PLAYERS Now lets look at the Top 10 Players per $ against the same metrics Top 10 batters Per $ Players by OBP/$ Team2011 SalaryDavid FreeseSt Louis Cardinals$416,000 By 2011 Batting AverageAllen Craig St Louis Cardinals$414,000 By 2011 Home RunsA.J. Ellis Los Angeles Dodgers$421,000Lucas Duda New York Mets$414,000 By 2011 On Base Percentage Jason Donald Cleveland Indians$423,200Dexter Fowler Colorado Rockies$424,000Mike StantonFlorida Marlins $416,000Emilio BonifacioFlorida Marlins $425,000Jason JaramilloPittsburgh Pirates $422,500Carlos Santana Cleveland Indians$416,600 8 23. David Freese completed astartling night of comebackswith a home run leading offthe bottom of the 11thinning to beat Texas 10-9 onThursday, and suddenly fansall over got something theyhave waited a long time tosee: Game 7 in the WorldSeries."2011 World Series MVP......and Top Moneyball Pick inthe Major Leagues! DAVID FREESE9 24. EFFICIENT FRONTIERCOST-EFFECTIVE WAYS TO LOAD THE BASES10 25. EFFICIENT FRONTIERCOST-EFFECTIVE WAYS TO LOAD THE BASES On-Base Percentage is still uncorrelated with Salary!!0.4 OBP0.30.2 A-Rod $26,000,0000.1$15,000,000$7,500,000 $3,500,000$1,500,000 Salary0 $750,000$250,000 10 26. EFFICIENT FRONTIERCOST-EFFECTIVE WAYS TO LOAD THE BASES Which means its clear where to put your money tomaximize OBP per $MM! 0.5OBP/$MM0.4 0.3A-Rod$26,000,000$15,000,000 0.1$7,500,000$3,500,000 $1,500,000 Salary 0$750,000 $250,00010 27. EFFICIENT FRONTIERPLAYER PERFORMANCE PER $ 175 Looking for the hitterRBI/$MMto deliver the RBIs 131 Theres a pretty good88valuation of home-run hitters 44 A-Rod $23,000,000$15,000,000 $7,500,000 $3,500,0000 $1,500,000 $750,000 Salary$500,00011 28. EFFICIENT FRONTIERPLAYER PERFORMANCE PER $ 175 Looking for the hitterRBI/$MMto deliver the RBIs 131 Theres a pretty good88valuation of home-run hitters 44 A-Rod $23,000,000$15,000,000 $7,500,000 $3,500,0000 $1,500,000 $750,000 Salary$500,00011 29. MONEYADSTHE STRATEGY 12 30. MONEYADSTHE STRATEGYBaseball Digital AdvertisingWe might want to buy runs, but we benet We want to drive consumer action, but we canfrom players who get on base benet by growing our remarketable audience Purchase Established Players based on Target campaigns to optimize audience different metrics OBP vs. HRacquisition rather than actions, which demands a lower premium per impression Selectively draft College Baseball players Find pockets of inventory that we knowrather than High School Players stable from historical data will deliver high-qualitystatistics click-based audience at low cost Buying High School Players, look for Buy previously unseen media based oncommonalities with the background of commonality with seen media that performsmature players who now have good well against our new target metricsdifferent metrics12 31. MONEYADSTHE STRATEGYBaseball Digital AdvertisingWe might want to buy runs, but we benet We want to drive consumer action, but we canfrom players who get on base benet by growing our remarketable audience Purchase Established Players based on Target campaigns to optimize audience different metrics OBP vs.