olav maassen. making better decisions with option theory
TRANSCRIPT
October 7, 2016Making better
decisionswith option theoryThe ‘When’ rather than the ‘How’
Olav MaassenVersionOne
[email protected]@OlavMaassen
Contact InfoRole
Director of Sales, Europe at VersionOneFormer Clients
ASR, Essent, ING, Philips IT Applications, PortbaseContact
[email protected] +31 6 26083506
Instant Messaging, Skype, Twitter@olavmaassen
Other information:• Honorary Fellow at the Lean Systems Society• Co-author of award-winning graphic business novel
“Commitment”, awarded “Most Valuable Agile Innovation 2013”
3
When is somethinga commitment?
Options have value
© luismi1985
Options expire
© givepeasachance
Never commit
early unless
you know why© Tub Gurnard
Landmark Cone of Uncertainty
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.000.1
1
10Estimation Error over Time
Percent of Actual Duration
Acut
al T
otal
Dur
atio
n / E
stim
ated
Tot
al
Dura
tion
The Cone of Uncertainty
We expect uncertainty and manage for it through iterations, anticipation, and adaptation.
8
It’snot
aboutprobability
It’sabout
survival
11
Staff Liquidity
12
Source: https://www.box.com/shared/mg9kq3d17e
Value of information
10 September 2013
When do we have to decide?
Yellow + Blue option ???
Blue option ???
DecNov
Stock shops
Oct
Produce DVD+box
Servers
????March
We are here!
© Pascal Van Cauwenberghe
When do we have to decide?
Yellow + Blue option ???
Blue option ???
DecNov
Stock shops
Oct
Produce DVD+box
Servers
AugustMarch
We are here!
Design and test(2M)
© Pascal Van Cauwenberghe
When do we have to decide?
Yellow + Blue option ???
Blue option ???
DecNov
Stock shops
Oct
Produce DVD+box
Servers
SeptMarch
We are here!
Design and test(1M)
© Pascal Van Cauwenberghe
Options have value
© luismi1985
Options expire
© givepeasachance
Never commit
early unless
you know why© Tub Gurnard
Focus on when tomake a commitment!
Understand the difference between commitment and decision
Do you need arope to climbback up?
19
Finding the artist
22
Rough Outline
First manuscript
28
29
30
Different covers
31
34
School choice
© luismi1985
Options
expire
© givepeasachance
Never commit
early unless
you know why© Tub Gurnard
Options have value
36
Key take aways• See options around you
• Use options to postpone commitments
• Know when to commit and why
37
Questions are an option
Contact InfoRole
Director of Sales, Europe at VersionOneFormer Clients
ASR, Essent, ING, Philips IT Applications, PortbaseContact
[email protected] +31 6 26083506
Instant Messaging, Skype, Twitter@olavmaassen
Other information:• Honorary Fellow at the Lean Systems Society• Co-author of award-winning graphic business novel
“Commitment”, awarded “Most Valuable Agile Innovation 2013”