oklahoma drought: past, present and future oct. 12, 2016 · 2015, spring and fall 2016 • no la...
TRANSCRIPT
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Oklahoma Drought: Past, Present and Future
Oct. 12, 2016
Gary McManus
State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
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By the time you leave this afternoon…
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Want to know more about Oklahoma’s water cycle?
Just look at the last 6 years!
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Synopsis of our 2010-16 Weather
• Drought “begins” October 2010 • Intensified through summer 2011 • Intermittent relief through early 2015 • El Nino intensifies in 2015, “Super El Nino”
brings final end to drought • 2015 becomes wettest year on record • Back to normal? Mini-drought episodes in fall
2015, spring and fall 2016 • No La Nina (at least a significant La Nina)!
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How did we get here
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Oct. 1, 2010-Apr. 11, 2015
36.4 inches below normal statewide (50+ in some areas)
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The drought at its worst
70% of the state in D4 drought
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2015: A Drought Buster!
2015’s statewide avg. of 53.72” obliterates previous record holder, 1957’s 47.88 inches
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Where are we now?
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Percent of Normal
Mesonet Rainfall 2016 thus far
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Oct. 1, 2010-Present Departure from Normal
Have we really recovered?
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A Brief History of Drought
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OK Drought 2000-2016 Taken from U.S. Drought Monitor for OK
The two most sig. droughts of the Drought Monitor era: 2005-06 and 2010-15
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1910s drought
1930s drought
1950s drought
30-year wet signal
A nice drought/pluvial cycle…then? Statewide avg. rainfall (1895-2015)
2015
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Droughts from past 120 years are infants!
YIKES!
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Forecasts and Outlooks
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Next 7 days
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Temperature Precipitation
Medium-term Outlooks: Oct. 17-21
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Final Thoughts • 5 years of drought (worst since 1950s?)
ended in floods • Drought is sputtering, but still here • Watch out NW OK! • Drought intensification should slow during
cool season (but not always the case … November 2005)
• La Nina = La Nina-No • Winter outlook: Warm, cold, some snow,
some rain, dry sometimes too
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Guess who was the Associate State Climatologist and who was the Assistant!
Wind chill of 32 degrees.
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Thank You!
Visit us at: http://climate.ok.gov/