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  • OILSEEDS and PROTEIN CROPS market situation

    Committee for the Common Organisation

    of Agricultural Markets

    25 October 2017

  • World Oilseeds Production

    EU oilseeds & protein crops areas & production (2017/18)

    ANNEX

    EU oilseeds balance sheets (seeds, meals & oils)

    Content

  • World Oilseeds Market

  • World oilseeds - production

    Source: USDA

    476

    573577

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17(est)

    2017/18(fcst)

    ALL

    (mili

    ion

    to

    nn

    es)

    Sun

    , ra

    pe

    & s

    oy

    (mill

    ion

    to

    nn

    es)

    Sunflower Rapeseed Soybeans All (7 crops)

    m/m forecast changes

    Oilseeds

    Soybeans

    Rapeseed

    Sunflower

  • 0.00

    50.00

    100.00

    150.00

    200.00

    250.00

    300.00

    350.00

    400.00

    Soybean Rapeseed Sunflowerseed Cottonseed Peanut Other

    Mill

    ion t

    onnes

    2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18Source : USDA (October 2017)

    Oilseeds world production million

    tonnes

    5 years

    averagelast MY

    current

    forecast

    previous

    forecast

    % vs

    average

    % vs

    last MY

    % vs

    last

    forecast

    Copra 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 1.6 2.4 0.0

    Cottonseed 42.1 39.0 44.3 44.1 5.2 13.5 0.4

    Palm kernel 16.1 16.8 18.0 18.0 12.3 7.4 0.0

    Peanut 41.2 42.6 43.0 42.9 4.2 0.9 0.2

    Rapeseed 69.5 70.3 71.9 72.1 3.4 2.2 -0.4

    Soybean 307.2 351.3 347.9 348.4 13.2 -1.0 -0.2

    Sunflowerseed 40.7 47.6 46.3 47.4 13.8 -2.6 -2.2

    Oilseeds 522.3 573.1 577.0 578.6 10.5 0.7 -0.3

  • 0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    USA Brazil Argentina China India Paraguay Canada

    Mill

    ion

    tonn

    es

    2013/ 14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/ 18Source : USDA (October 2017)

    Soybeans world production by country

    million

    tonnes

    5 years

    averagelast MY

    current

    forecast

    previous

    forecast

    % vs

    last

    forecast

    % vs

    last MY

    % vs

    average

    USA 101.0 116.9 120.6 120.6 0.0 3.1 19.4

    Brazil 95.3 114.1 107.0 107.0 0.0 -6.2 12.3

    Argentina 55.7 57.8 57.0 57.0 0.0 -1.4 2.3

    China 12.4 12.9 14.2 14.0 1.4 10.1 14.9

    India 9.8 11.5 10.0 10.0 0.0 -13.0 2.5

    Paraguay 8.9 10.7 9.4 9.4 0.0 -11.9 5.8

    Canada 5.9 6.5 8.2 8.2 0.0 26.9 39.8

    World 323.1 347.9 347.9 348.4 -0.2 0.0 7.7

  • Rapeseed world production by country

    0.000

    5.000

    10.000

    15.000

    20.000

    25.000

    EU28 Canada China India Australia

    Mill

    ion

    tonn

    es

    2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fcast)Source : USDA (October 2017)

    million

    tonnes

    5 years

    averagelast MY

    current

    forecast

    previous

    forecast

    % vs

    last

    forecast

    % vs

    last MY

    % vs

    average

    EU 28 21.6 20.5 22.0 22.0 0.2 7.1 1.9

    Canada 17.4 19.6 19.9 19.9 0.0 1.5 14.6

    China 14.3 13.5 13.1 13.1 0.0 -3.0 -8.6

    India 6.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 0.0 1.5 14.0

    Australia 3.7 4.1 3.0 3.0 0.0 -27.4 -18.6

    World 69.5 70.3 71.9 72.1 -0.4 2.2 3.5

  • Sunflowerseed world production by country

    0.000

    2.000

    4.000

    6.000

    8.000

    10.000

    12.000

    14.000

    16.000

    Ukraine Russia EU28 Argentina China

    Mill

    ion

    tonn

    es

    2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fcast)Source : USDA (October 2017)

    million

    tonnes

    5 years

    averagelast MY

    current

    forecast

    previous

    forecast

    % vs

    last

    forecast

    % vs

    last MY

    % vs

    average

    Ukraine 11.6 15.2 13.5 14.0 -3.6 -11.2 16.6

    Russia 9.1 10.9 11.0 11.5 -4.3 1.3 20.2

    EU28 8.3 8.6 8.5 8.5 0.0 -0.9 2.6

    Argentina 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.0 0.0 17.6 38.6

    China 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.8 1.8 11.9

    World 40.7 47.6 46.3 47.4 -2.2 -2.6 13.8

  • 43

    60

    70

    5457

    62

    78 78

    95 96

    4 4 6 5 4 35 5

    812

    212

    261 264

    240

    269

    283

    320

    314

    351348

    221

    238

    252

    258

    261275

    302

    314

    330

    344

    40

    95

    150

    206

    261

    316

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016est.

    2017proj.

    mill

    ion to

    nne

    s

    mill

    ion to

    nne

    s

    World of which US World Production World Consumption

    Source: USDA October

    Soybeans world production, consumption and stocks

  • Soybeans production forecast by country

    -10

    10

    30

    50

    70

    90

    110

    130

    2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18May 2017

    2017/18June 2017

    2017/18July 2017

    2017/18Aug 2017

    2017/18Sept 2017

    2017/18October 2017

    'mill

    ion

    to

    nn

    es

    USA

    Brazil

    Argentina

    China

    CAN - Paraguay - India

    2017/18

  • Rapeseed production forecast by country

    4.135

    3.000

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18May 2017

    2017/18June 2017

    2017/18July 2017

    2017/18Aug 2017

    2017/18Sept 2017

    2017/18October 2018

    mill

    ion

    to

    nn

    es

    EU 28

    Canada

    China

    India

    2017/18

  • Sunflowerseed production forecast by country

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18May 2017

    2017/18June 2017

    2017/18July 2017

    2017/18August 2017

    2017/18Sept 2017

    2017/18Oct 2017

    mill

    ion

    to

    nn

    es

    EU 28

    Russia

    Argentina

    Ukraine

    2017/18

    China

  • Global oilseeds production: key messages

    Total oilseeds

    Slightly revised down (-2m t m/m); still record production forecast (577m t; +11% vs 5 year average).

    Soyabeans

    Forecast slightly adjusted m/m; second highest production (348m t; +8% vs 5 year average)

    US production at record level (121m t; harvest ongoing)

    Production in South America lower y/y (plantings ongoing)

    Rapeseed

    Slightly revised down but still record level production (72m t; +5% vs 5 year average)

    No change m/m for the main producing countries

    Sunflower

    Decrease of 1m t m/m; global production close to record (47m t; +14% vs 5 year average)

    Decrease in UKR and RU (-4% m/m) but production still higher than average (+17% and +20%)

  • World oilseeds export prices (fob)

    377

    426

    386

    340

    380

    420

    460

    Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17

    $/t Oilseeds- monthly average

    Soy (US) Rape (EU) Sun (EU)

    /t $/t /t $/t /t $/t Argentina - Up River 323 380 2% 1% -8% -2%

    Brazil - Paranagua 331 389 3% 1% -13% -7%

    US Gulf 323 380 2% 0% -8% -2%

    Ukraine 305 359 4% 3% -12% -6%

    Australia 382 449 -2% -3% -6% 0%

    Canada 358 421 0% -2% -2% 5%

    EU (Rouen) 361 425 -1% -3% -10% -3%

    Ukraine 364 428 2% 0% 3% 1%

    EU (Bordeaux) 328 385 0% -2% -11% -4%

    Ukraine 315 370 2% 0% -12% -5%

    Export prices FOB17 Oct 2017 m/m variation y/y variation

    soybeans

    sunflower

    rapeseed

  • Futures prices

    320

    330

    340

    350

    360

    370

    380

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    Daily

    tra

    ded v

    olu

    me (

    1000 c

    ontr

    acts

    of 136 t

    $/t

    Soybeans CME (60 days - $/t) Rapeseed MATIF (60 days - EUR/t)

    330

    335

    340

    345

    350

    355

    360

    365

    370

    375

    380

    0

    4

    8

    12

    16

    20

    24

    28

    /t

    Daily

    tra

    ded v

    olu

    me (

    1000 c

    ontr

    acts

    of 50 t)

    IGC

    AUG'17: 364

    NOV'17: 365

    AUG'18: 368

    AUG'17: 368

    MAY'18: 375

    AUG'18: 357

  • Oilseeds / cereals price ratio

    1.0

    1.6

    2.2

    2.8

    3.4

    4.0

    01/01/08 01/01/09 01/01/10 01/01/11 01/01/12 01/01/13 01/01/14 01/01/15 01/01/16 01/01/17

    US soybean - maize price ratio (CBOT)18/10/2017: 2.82

    EU rapeseed - wheat price ratio (MATIF)18/10/2017: 2.26

  • Global oilseeds prices: key messages

    Moderate volitility over the last month for the three oilseeds

    Pressure on prices:

    Ample world supplies

    Confortable stocks level (even if US stock decreased to 11.2m t)

    Support on prices:

    Strong world demand

    Weather concerns - uncertainties about plantings in South America

    (ARG too wet; BZ: too dry)

    y/y price evolution : soy and sunflower cheaper & rapeseed stable (however more expensive in Canada)

  • Oilseeds and protein crops

    at EU level

  • EU Oilseeds EU OILSEEDS AREA

    AVG 5 yrs 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 %change %change

    Million ha trimmed September 2017 October 2017 2016/17

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