oil load serving study update
DESCRIPTION
Oil Load Serving Study Update. August 18 th , 2011. OIL LOAD SERVING STUDY AREA. WILLISTON LOAD POCKET. ASSUMPTIONS. MCDC LIMITED TO 100MW E-W MDU PEAKERS OFF LEWIS & CLARK GEN ON WIND OFF CULBERSTON OFF BUT AVAILABLE FOR PRIOR OUTAGES FORT PECK GENERATION = 35MW, MAX ~135MW - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Oil Load Serving Study Update
August 18th, 2011
OIL LOAD SERVING STUDY AREA
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
OIL LOAD STUDY AREA COOP LOAD FORECAST COMPARISON
July 2011 forecastApril 2011 forecastJuly 2011 with 20% contingency
WILLISTON LOAD POCKET
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20220
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Williston Load Pocket Load Forecasts
April 2011 forecastjuly 2011 forecast July 2011 forecast +20%
ASSUMPTIONS
•MCDC LIMITED TO 100MW E-W•MDU PEAKERS OFF•LEWIS & CLARK GEN ON•WIND OFF•CULBERSTON OFF
•BUT AVAILABLE FOR PRIOR OUTAGES•FORT PECK GENERATION = 35MW, MAX ~135MW•WINTER PEAK LOADS
CHALLENGES•VOLTAGE STABILITY
•LOW VOLTAGE, POWER QUALITY, POOR “PROFILE”•REGIONAL LOAD INCREASES
•115KV LINE OVERLOADS•MAINLY FEEDING WILLISTON POCKET
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 15500.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
Watford City 115kV VoltageAVS-CCR 345kV Outage, MCDC at 20MW East-West
Culbertson = 0MW
Study Area Load MW
Volta
ge
Base Case
Phase 1 Caps115kV Additions
Williston SVC
EXAMPLE VOLTAGE STABILITY “PV” CURVE
Charlie Creek
EXISTING SYSTEMCharlie Creek-Williston at 115kV
345kV Line230kV Line115kV Line
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
710 Existing System Limit Until July 2012
BASELINE FORECAST
July 2012Charlie Creek-Williston at 230kV
CAPCITOR ADDITIONSLocation Total Size Notes:
Dickinson 115 30 MVARPer the Keystone XL initial load requirement. 2 x 15MVAR for switching
Logan 115 30MVAR 2 x 15 MVAR
Blaisdel 115 30 MVAR 2 x 15 MVAR
Dunning 115 20 MVAR 2 x 10MVAR
Kenniston 115 12 MVAR 2 x 6 MVAR
Watford City 115 30 MVAR 2 x 15MVAR for switching
State Line 115 15 MVAR 1 x 15 MVAR
SW Minot 115 10 MVAR 1 x 10MVAR
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
710
1209
Williston-CCR 230& Cap Additions
BASELINE FORECAST
2013Networked 115kV
Des Lacs
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
710
1209 1252
Networked 115kV
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
710
1209 1252 1301
Williston SVC
BASELINE FORECAST
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
710
1209 1252 13011353
RUN CULBERTSON PRE-CONTINGENT
BASELINE FORECAST
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
710
1209 1252 13011353
?ADD 345KV
BASELINE FORECAST
Prior Outages?
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
AVS-CHARLIE CREEK 345KV PRIOR OUTAGE LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
1016 1064
Williston-CCR 230& Cap Additions
Networked 115kV
BASELINE FORECAST
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
CHARLIE CREEK-WATFORD CITY 230KV PRIOR OUTAGE LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
984
1234
Williston-CCR 230& Cap Additions
Networked 115kV
BASELINE FORECAST
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
LELAND OLDS-LOGAN 230KV PRIOR OUTAGE LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
Xcel Load at Souris MDU Load in Study Area Coop Bottineau Area LoadCoop Minot Area Load Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
MW
974
1234
Williston-CCR 230& Cap Additions
Networked 115kV
BASELINE FORECAST
QUESTIONS?