oil & energy markets: shifting landscape, … · total products imports total products exports...

OIL & ENERGY MARKETS:

SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,

Trading Opportunities 1

Gunvor – Integrated Global Trading



Crude Oil(60%)

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Gasoline

Naphtha

LPGBiofuel

Crude Oil (30%)

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

NatGas + LNG

Coal

Gasoline

Naphtha LPG Biofuel

2009: 98 MT mn 2012: 136 MT mn

A Balanced Trading Portfolio



GEOGRAPHICAL

EXPANSION

PRODUCT

DIVERSIFICATION

INVESTMENTS

ALONG THE

VALUE CHAIN

• New Offices

• New Partnerships

• Expanded Trading

• New Desks

• Acquisitions

• Greenfield Projects

• Brownfield Projects

Group Strategy



• Ust Luga Oil Products Terminal (Russia) 100%

• Ust Luga Crude Oil Pipeline (Russia) 50%

• Novorossiysk Fuel Oil Terminal (Russia) 50%

• Petroterminal de Panama, S.A. (Panama) 16%

• Independent Belgium Refinery BV (Belgium) 100%

• Gunvor Raffinerie Deutschland GmbH (Germany) 100%

• TAL Pipeline (Italy, Austria, Germany) 10%

Signal Peak (United States) 33%

• LLC Kolmar (Russia) 30%

• Keaton Energy Holdings Ltd (South Africa) 24%

• Lagansky Block (Caspian Sea) 30%

Midstream

Downstream

Upstream

Gunvor – Investment Strategy

Across the Value Chain

5 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,

Trading Opportunities

Weaker Pure Trading Margins & IOC Divestments

Prompt Trader Investment in Assets

0

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14

$/b

bl

ICE Brent daily high-low spreads

Public equity & debt offerings of physical commodity traders, $US billion

A Transformed U.S. Oil Landscape



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US crude oil production

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US net oil products exporter since mid-2011

Total products imports Total products exports

Graphic: Financial Times

Other New Upstream Hotspots Too..

…Many with High Political or Infrastructure Risk

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The IEA view on Iraqi supply potential

Central scenario

High case

Iraq: physical potential confronts logistical & political barriers



Source: IEA 2012

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=A3mjyd-a5c2b5M&tbnid=YosASbz5xfgawM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1247030.ece&ei=gVORUa3QKuzn4QTZ34GwCw&psig=AFQjCNGi3sF10Tl0mrIspfm0JcXyncGzng&ust=1368564993735654



Global Trade and GDP Growth

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Economic risks & oil demand

oil demand impact IMF 09/11 IMF 10/12

low growth IMF 4/13

source: WTO

Macro Outlook Uncertainty

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Oil demand growth now an emerging market story

OECD growth China growth Other non OECD growth

Energy Demand: Relentless Shift to Emerging Markets

Primary Energy Growth 2011-2030 Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030



Oil & Transport Grab the Headlines,

but Power Sector Runs on Coal

source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2012

source: ExxonMobil, Energy Outlook 2013



Rising Gas Supplies & Inroads to the Transport Sector

Source: IEA MTGMR 2012

Source: ExxonMobil

New LNG Supplies 2011-2017



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China oil demand and GDP growth

oil demand growth GDP growth

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Oil intensity, bbl/$000 GDP

China

World

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China Looms Large as Oil & Energy Demand Motor

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China accounts for 45% of incremental hydrocarbon energy 1981-2011

China

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World





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$/b

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Margins unexpectedly strong in 2012...

...but weaker ex-US in 2013

SING Crack Dubai N.WE crack Brent Med Crack Urals

USG crack LLS Chicago crack WTI

New East of Suez Capacity

Puts European Refining Under Pressure

• Declining demand, plus surge in new capacity east of Suez…

• …means focus of rationalisation is in Europe

• North America shielded by cheap feedstock & energy costs

• Some OECD Asian capacity benefits from proximity to growth markets

• Distressed capacity converted to terminals, sold to NOCs & trading

companies or closed

IEA 2012

Rising Refined Products Trade

• US is already seeing rising crude output, less imports, maturing oil

demand, so trade shifts to products exports

• New refining capacity in the Middle East and other producing areas,

emergence of India and China as exporters of key products

• Global products trade may grow faster than crude in the next decade

-1.5-1

-0.50

0.51

1.52

2.53

3.5

incr

em

en

t, m

b/d

Refining additions vs oil demand growth 2011-2017

Primary refining additions Oil demand growth





Year 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Sales in EU27+2 (Mt/a) 61.9 52.9 56.8 59.4 60.9 61.5

Inland Waterway Diesel 5.0 4.8 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.3

Distillate Marine Fuel 7.4 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.6

ECA Bunker (Residual) 13.4 11.3

ECA Bunker (Distillate) 13.2 14.0 14.7 15.1

Non-ECA Ferries Bunker (Residual) 5.4 4.6 3.7

Non-ECA Ferries Bunker (Distillate) 3.6 3.7 3.8

Residual Bunker Global non-ECA 30.6 26.0 27.1 28.4 29.2 29.7

Maximum Sulphur Limits (%m/m) 2.7 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3

Inland Waterway Diesel 0.1 0.1 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001

Distillate Marine Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

ECA Bunker (Residual) 1.5 1.0

ECA Bunker (Distillate) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Non-ECA Ferries Bunker (Residual) 1.5 1.5 1.5

Non-ECA Ferries Bunker (Distillate) 0.1 0.1 0.1

Residual Bunker Global non-ECA 4.5 3.5 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Bunker Sulphur Regs Will Hit Trade Flows Too

Pump It Move It Refine It Store It Sell It Move It



A Bright Future for the Trading Companies

Assets must enhance, or benefit from, core business

• More diversified geographically, across products

and along the value chain

• But trading remains central to everything we do



Thank you for your attention

oil & energy markets: shifting landscape, … · total products imports total products exports...

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