off-grid solar market trends report 2016 - lighting global
TRANSCRIPT
OFF-GRID SOLARMARKET TRENDSREPORT 2016
FEBRUARY 2016
In cooperation with
and
In partnership with
Lighting GlobalAn Innovation of the World Bank Groupwww.lightingglobal.org
The World Bank1818 H Street, NWWashington, DC 20433 USAwww.worldbank.org
IFC2121 Pennsylvania Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20433 USAwww.ifc.org
Bloomberg New Energy Finance39-45 Finsbury SquareCity Gate House,London EC2A 1PQUnited Kingdomwww.bnef.com
Global Off-Grid Lighting Association (GOGLA)Nieuwekade 93511 RV UtrechtThe Netherlandswww.gogla.org
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OFF-GRID SOLAR MARKET TRENDS REPORT 2016 Published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Lighting Global, an innovation of the World Bank Group In cooperation with Global Off-Grid Lighting Association
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was commissioned by Lighting Global, a joint initiative of IFC and the World Bank. It was produced by Lighting Global and Bloomberg New Energy Finance in partnership with the Global Off-Grid Lighting Association.
The Market Trends Report is the third in a series to provide a snapshot of the off-grid lighting market, industry-level data and analysis on key trends. It relies on the inputs of a broad range of industry experts, manufacturers, distributors, scientists, investors, market researchers and NGO leaders worldwide who contributed their views, time and advice to the preparation of this document. Thank you.
We welcome your feedback and support in this effort and encourage you to reach out to the Lighting Global team with your questions and feedback through www.lightingglobal.org or by emailing us on [email protected].
International Finance Corporation (IFC) Russell Sturm Arthur Itotia Njagi Leo Blyth Naomi Bruck Ahmad Slaibi Peter Alstone (Lighting Global Quality Assurance, Consultant) Arne E. Jacobson (Lighting Global Quality Assurance, Schatz Energy Research Center)
World Bank Dan Murphy Raihan Elahi Jenny Hasselsten Micah George Melnyk
Koen Peters Eduardo Appleyard
Lead authors Itamar Orlandi, CFA Nico Tyabji Jenny Chase Contributors Michael Wilshire Ben Vickers
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Page 85 of 94
OFF-GRID SOLAR MARKET TRENDS REPORT 2016 Published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Lighting Global, an innovation of the World Bank Group In cooperation with Global Off-Grid Lighting Association
to consumers, who are usually cash-strapped and highly price sensitive. Reducing the tariffs can, in a competitive environment, cut retail prices by more than a quarter. Preliminary findings from field research show that a retail price drop from $7 to $4 per unit almost doubled uptake in a sample of 200 households in Kenya, highlighting the potential impact of reduced taxation.77
• High-efficiency DC appliances are likely to emerge in more markets and become important demand drivers. Dalberg projects the market potential at $4.7 billion by 202078 – 50 percent larger than the market for off-grid solar kits. It is possible that TVs, fans and even tablets with internet connectivity will become anchor appliances for solar home systems. Consumers will purchase solar systems to power their device of choice, rather than incrementally climbing up the energy ladder from basic lighting to advanced appliances. Anecdotally, demand for such appliances is large and largely suppressed as they are difficult to power. The emergence of a broader universe of high efficiency DC appliances, potentially also backed by household names with strong brands, is likely to create a positive feedback cycle with the solar home system industry.
Additional variables we ranked are unlikely to be primary gamechangers, either because they are likely to have only a limited impact or because their future trajectory is better understood. Technology cost reductions, for instance, have both a relatively well charted trajectory and are increasingly making up a small part of the retail price, compared with distribution and financing costs. Policy interventions such as grid expansion, financial regulation of PAYG businesses or tapping the carbon market are also expected to be either sufficiently clear that they will not impact business in the foreseeable future or are unlikely to have a significant impact.
Figure 87: Impact and uncertainty matrix for off-grid solar market variables (subjective ranking by authors)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
77 SolarAid, ETH Zürich, forthcoming. 78 Global LEAP, Dalberg, “Global LEAP Off-Grid Appliance Market Research: Final Report”, forthcoming.
Consumer)finance
Working)capital
Grants
Angel)capital
Proven)investor)returns
DC)appliances
New)entrants)(corporate)
New)entrants)(start=ups)
HR)talent
Awareness)of)product)category
Trust)in)quality
VAT)/)import)tariffs
Grid)expansion
Financial)and)energy)market)regulation)of)
PAYG
Governments)embracing)off=grid
Black)carbon)is)recognised)for)emission)offsets
Catalytic)interventions
Governments)slowing)off=gridBattery)costs
PV)costs
Assembly)and)packaging)costs
Finance Market)participants Customer=driven Policy)and)regulation Technology
High(uncertainty
Low(uncertainty
Low(impact
High(impact
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Page 90 of 94
OFF-GRID SOLAR MARKET TRENDS REPORT 2016 Published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Lighting Global, an innovation of the World Bank Group In cooperation with Global Off-Grid Lighting Association
SOLAR HOME SYSTEM KITS
FOSERA GROUPLSHS 9800+Lamps+Panel
MOBISOLMobisol Family SHS 19” TV
OMNIVOLTAIC POWER CO. LTD.OvCamp HS1-144_LB2244
OvCamp Solar Home System
SOLARWORKS!Solar Home System
ZIMPERTECLitio Solar Home System Kit
PICO SOLAR PRODUCTS
ANJI DASOL SOLAR ENERGY SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO.SSL200
AZURI TECHNOLOGIES LTD.Indigo Duo Solar Home System
BAREFOOT POWER LTD.Barefoot Firefly/ GO 250/GO 255Firefly Mobile
Connect 600
D.LIGHT DESIGNA1 S20
D20 S100
S2 S300
APPENDIX LIGHTING GLOBAL QUALITY VERIFIED PRODUCTS
Page 91 of 94
OFF-GRID SOLAR MARKET TRENDS REPORT 2016 Published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Lighting Global, an innovation of the World Bank Group In cooperation with Global Off-Grid Lighting Association
GS YUASA INTERNATIONAL LTD.AKARi
Mini Moshi-Moshi
INDIA IMPEX SUNLITEJS30-MOB
JUA ENERGYHome Mate
M-KOPA SOLARM-KOPA 3
MIBAWA SUPPLIERS LTD.Mibawa Solarpack 3
MICROMARKCompact LED Solar Light
FOSERA GROUPPico Solar Home System Family – PSHS 2800, PSHS 7000 and others
FREEPLAY ENERGYSolar Energy Centre
FUTURAEnergy Station Plus
GREENLIGHT PLANET INCSun King Home Eco Sun King Pro 2
Sun King Home Plus Sun King Pro All Night
Sun King Home Sun King Solo
Sun King Mobile
PICO SOLAR PRODUCTS (continued)
Page 92 of 94
OFF-GRID SOLAR MARKET TRENDS REPORT 2016 Published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Lighting Global, an innovation of the World Bank Group In cooperation with Global Off-Grid Lighting Association
ORB ENERGYSolectric 10
Solectric 15
Solectric 30
PANASONIC CORPORATIONSolar Lantern
RENEWIT SOLAR LIMITEDSolarway G1 Solar Power Lantern/ Solarway G1 Lantern
Solar Homework Light
SCHNEIDER ELECTRICMobiya TS120S/Awango TS120
NIWA NEXT ENERGY PRODUCTS LTD.Home Run 400 X3 Multi 300 XL
MSS-Modular Office 200 X2 Solar Systems (Family)
Multi 100 Plus Uno 50
NURU ENERGYNL3-800 NL3-1000/Laerdal Light
OFF-GRID SOLUTIONS B.V.WakaWaka
OMNIVOLTAIC POWER CO. LTD.MB2-090 MB2-380
MB2-200 OvCamp HS1-36_LB1122
MB2-290 OvPilot X
PICO SOLAR PRODUCTS (continued)
!
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!""#$%&'()!*+%(,+%-./(/%.0')(%.1!%/(2345("#$%&'()*!$+!,%--.$)/0!1)2!34)/0+!5&4647)!64*!8&0(9&40!:%-$6%;!64!&44-<69&-4!-=!9()!>-/%*!,64?!:/-#@!A4!7--@)/69&-4!2&9(!:%-$6%!B==C:/&*!8&0(9&40!D''-7&69&-4!
SINOWARE TECHNOLOGY CO. LIMITEDSolar Lamp
SOLARLAND (WUXI) ELECTRONIC POWER TECHNOLOGY LTD.Solar Power Pack 5.0
SOLARWORKS!Solar Kit Lithium
ZHEJIANG HOLLEYSolar Lantern
PICO SOLAR PRODUCTS (continued)
Find out more about quality verified products at www.lightingglobal.org/products/
Product list current as of February 2016
!
OFF-GRID SOLARMARKET TRENDSREPORT 2016
FEBRUARY 2016
In cooperation with
and
In partnership with
Lighting GlobalAn Innovation of the World Bank Groupwww.lightingglobal.org
The World Bank1818 H Street, NWWashington, DC 20433 USAwww.worldbank.org
IFC2121 Pennsylvania Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20433 USAwww.ifc.org
Bloomberg New Energy Finance39-45 Finsbury SquareCity Gate House,London EC2A 1PQUnited Kingdomwww.bnef.com
Global Off-Grid Lighting Association (GOGLA)Nieuwekade 93511 RV UtrechtThe Netherlandswww.gogla.org