October Running TradeBook

Summary: Total Positions: 1

Wins: 1

Losses: 0

Percentage Gain: 3.5%

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Commentary

October is here and there’s already blood in the markets as we witnessed a stock market route that sliced over 1,000 points off the DOW, which has many investors on edge moving

into the U.S Mid-Term Elections.

This spike in volatility failed to provide any currency with sustainable safe-haven inflows, with the gold market actually shining the brightest, providing the true hedge against market

anxiety.

As we prepare for a new phase of geo-political uncertainty entering global markets, this time with the focus on the U.S Mid-Terms Elections, we have to be on guard that this sell-off may

have another leg lower as confidence is tested.

This offers us up a potential trading opportunity by getting long the “safety trade” amongst global panic, utilizing timing to our advantage, and letting the technicals guide the way.

Moving forwards, the Pro Trader Tradebook will be a running tab of open positions, recaps of closed positions, market commentary, and high risk:reward positions outlined well ahead of

the crowd.

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EUR/USD SHORT (SEPTEMBER 27TH, 2018)

ENTRY CRITERIA

Commentary: Swing Trade (Pattern Break & Re-Test)

• A short position was initiated based on a 1-month rising wedge break & re-test. • The position was timed on the 1-hour time horizon to decrease stop-loss allocation, and increase Risk:Reward • The management approach was discretionary smart stop placement, assessing risk based on the price action • Profit was taken as price formed a falling wedge reversal pattern intra-day on the 10th of October

Entry Stop Target Gain

1.17150 1.1765 1.143 3.5%

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INTRA-DAY TIMING TECHNIQUE

Commentary:

Intra-Day Timing Mechanism (Perfecting Your Swing Trade)

• A short position was initiated upon a simultaneous trend shift on the 1H + 4H Time Horizons • Trend-Line Support, Horizontal Support, & EMA Support provided a cluster of confluence • Once this confluence was taken out, the trend had shifted to the downside in-line with the daily • Position was initiated upon the backfill towards the broken catalysts at 1.17150 • See Slack Channel + Previous Market Forecasts For Real-Time Analysis Of This Position

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EXIT STRATEGY (OCTOBER 10TH, 2018)

Commentary:

Exit Strategy (Rising Wedge Reversal Pattern)

• Upon entry of this position, my trading plan called for managing this short with “smart-stop placement” • As this trade moved in my favor, the 4H time horizon was forming a falling wedge reversal pattern • The first initial exit point was the break & re-test of the falling wedge on the 1-hour time horizon • I decided to give the 4-hour a chance to make a lower high, protecting my stop-loss behind the 4H 50EMA, as

price ultimately rallied & took me out for 3.5% profit

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EQUITY MARKET CORRECTION (DOW JONES)

Commentary:

Bounce Before Another Fall?

• Following a false-breakout towards new highs in October, the equity markets have suffered a severe correction • Price is currently finding support at the Daily 200EMA / Weekly 50EMA which may provide a bounce next week • Ultimately, I believe we form a lower high at 25,750 upon a re-test of the daily 50EMA as new resistance • Overall, I believe another leg down is in the cards, and that will be the buying opportunity (Not This Low) See Slack Channel + Upcoming Market Forecast For Real-Time Updates

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EQUITY MARKET CORRECTION (SPX500)

Commentary:

SPX & Dow Jones Aligned…

• Notice how the DOW & S&P are aligned, both finding support at the daily 200EMA… • Ultimately, I believe we will see a dead cat bounce from these lows, which should lead to a bull trap • Just like the DOW, a rally towards 2840 & the daily 50EMA should be sold (Sell on Strength) • Keep in mind that U.S Mid-Terms are next month, and the market is selling off on anticipation of uncertainty See Slack Channel + Upcoming Market Forecast For Real-Time Updates

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Gold Market Rally (Potential Long Trade)

Commentary:

Gold Receiving The Safe Haven Bid…

• As the equity markets crashed to the downside, Gold was bid up on heavy safe-haven flows • Notice how we broke the daily down-trend that began in April 2018 as the USD began to rally • Additionally, we have broken out of the sideways summer consolidation which began in August of 2018 • Gold should now pullback in-line with the dead cat bounce in the Equity Markets • This will provide an excellent R:R trade to the upside…Investing in the safety trade amongst uncertainty

See Slack Channel + Upcoming Market Forecast For Real-Time Updates

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Gold Market Rally (Potential Long Trade)

Commentary:

First Higher Low (Timing Mechanism)

• Much like the EUR/USD trade, we can look to time a swing entry via intra-day timing • A pullback in gold aligns with a quick bounce in the equity markets; then everything should reverse back • A backfill towards the previous resistive band of 1212 - 1207 aligns with the 4H 50EMA turning back up • This will also provide newly emerged bullish structure (higher low) that would support a bullish bias next week • I believe we need to look for a higher low to form around Wednesday, October 17th…

See Slack Channel + Upcoming Market Forecast For Real-Time Updates

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Gold Market Rally (Potential Long Trade)

Commentary:

EMA’s Signaling Trend Change

• Notice how the 4H 50EMA is crossing over the 4H 200EMA (Daily 50EMA) as technical catalysts are broken • We can clearly see that a pullback to the previous resistive band outlined above aligns with this EMA crossover • Additionally, we have a clear symmetrical triangle breakout that needs to be re-tested as new support also • This viewpoint clearly showcases that both gold and the equity markets have time to pullback early next week • Ultimately, I am expecting a calming of volatility to start, and then a resumption of the uncertainty mid-week

See Slack Channel + Upcoming Market Forecast For Real-Time Updates

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Gold Market Rally (Potential Long Trade)

Commentary:

Sizing the position….

• Getting long gold is at the top of my radar for the week of October 15th, 2018 • Sizing the position, I would love to get an entry around 1210, with a safe stop-loss at 1200 • This allows me to define where I am wrong on the position, and allows the trade room to breathe… • My target on this position would be the 1240 handle… which aligns with the daily 200EMA (Weekly 50EMA) • If everything goes according to plan, a 1:3 Risk:Reward trade is possible before hitting major resistance

See Slack Channel + Upcoming Market Forecast For Real-Time Updates

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