Occupational analysis

- Sweden

Torbjörn Israelsson

torbjorn.israelsson@arbetsformedlingen.se

Public Employment Service Sweden Department of Analysis

Forecasting – more effective matching• Forecasting and analysing labour market is a

key for avoiding problems in the economy and get a better economical development – higher GD

• More effective matching process – shorter duration of vacancies – higher production – higher economic growth in the country - higher GDP

A model for analysing labour market and forecasting

A model for analysing and forecasting labour demand by interviewing

employers Forecast models core are the employment offices

The choice of forecasting model based on the following thoughts:

• Should basically be a public employment service model (PES).

• Good knowledge of the local labour market; familiar with corporate recruitment needs and abilities of job seekers

• Provides added value for both companies and job seekers

• The Employment Service may be strong network of working life

• Help job seekers with difficulties in entering the labour market

• Gives everyone a good prerequisite for efficient matching, but also for a solid foundation for planning and developing labour market policy instruments

Purpose of Forecasting

Internal use in the organisation

Improve our understanding of the labour market

• Better advice to job seekers on the recruitment needs and demand for different occupations, present and future

• Better contact with and information to employers about the lack or surplus of job seekers with different skills

• Needs analysis for the planning of the size and scope of the employment programs – needs of labour market training

• Industries or other Associations

Purpose of Forecasting

External use

Inform and influence external actors

• Government, parliament, local governments

• Media

• Other agencies and organizations at regional and national level

• Schools and universities (including vocational guidance and people facing study-/career choices)

• Employers' organizations and trade unions

• The public

• Scientists

Visit enterprises

Why personal interviews and not web- or mail surveys to companies? It's much more costly in terms of human resources – but it gives you a lot more knowledge and an more efficiency in matching jobseekers and vacancies.

Advances:•Good contacts with employers•Much more knowledge about local labour market•Much more knowledge about branches•Much more knowledge about occupations•Network of contacts•Good information to jobseekers•Good knowledge in the organisation and better planning of the work

Important information in the interview

• Expected Employment Development • Future staffing needs • Any recruitment problems, lack occupations • To understand the company's skills, not just education and

experience, but also any claims for other skills, ex social skills

• The aim is to get a good picture of demand for labour on the local labour market

• Leading economic indicators such as new orders and stocks – you can get an early knowledge about what is going to happen on your local labour market one year ahead

Thousand persons Chage, thousand/ %-tage points

Outcome Forecast Outcome Forecast

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013

Labour force 4782 4838 4893 4915 4920 56 55 22 5

Employed 4381 4429 4520 4525 4500 49 91 5 -25

Umemployed 401 409 373 390 420 8 -36 17 30

Per cent of labour

force 8,4 8,4 7,6 7,9 8,5 0,1 -0,8 0,3 0,6

Labour market

programmes 127 185 178 186 190 58 -8 8 4

Per cent of labour

force 2,7 3,8 3,6 3,8 3,9 1,2 -0,2 0,1 0,1

Key figures

Soures: Statistics Sweden (SCB), the Swedish Public Employment Service

Short term forecastingoccupations

in Sweden

Occupational forecasts

• Short term forecasts – 1 year ahead

• Long term forecasts – outlook 5-10 years ahead

Short term forecastinginformation sources• Information from employers

• Information from public employment offices

• Information from employers organisations and labour unions

• Information from written reports and from other forecasters

• Statistical information

Information from employers

• Ask employers in a questionnaire – interviews in connection to our two forecasts

• Information directly from employers is the most common way to get information about matching problems on the labour market

• Most of the institutions which collect information about shortages only get it by branches, not by occupations, but PES in Sweden collect this information by branches and by occupations

Information from public employment offices

• Occupational barometer – two times a year• Barometer questions to all employment offices all over Sweden• One question about present situation and another question about

situation one year ahead • A sample of the most common occupations on the Swedish labour

market• All sectors and all occupational groups are covered in the barometer• Answering in our forecasting Intranet system

Occupational forecast

• We map about 200 professions

• We use four digit level (ssyk close to Isco)

• We pick up knowledge from Employment Officies

• Employment offices get information from visiting companies and from the daily work

Occupational questions

• Assessment of the labour situation - today and 12 months ahead – from a sample of enterprises (interview result) and their expectations of development for occupations

• Is the main source for the Occupational compass (in Sweden)• Based on enterprises expectations and judgement of labour

market situation in occupations you get the recruitment situation for each occupation.

• You can compare the situation in each occupation between provinces and regions

• Important to get good quality in answers from employers and that they only answer for their own occupations

1 b) Estimation of the labour market situation for different occupations

Occupational area

Nr

OccupationLarge

surplusSurplus Balance Shortage

Large shortage

Science, 1 Physicists            

technology 2 Meteorologist            

and computing 3 Chemist            

  4 Geologist, Geophysicist etc            

  5 Mathematician            

  6 Statistician            

  7

Computer programmer, Computer systems designer, System architect, Computer engineer            

  8 Programmer, computing            

  9 IT-strategist, IT-analyst            

  10

Computer technologist (Network technician)            

  11 PC-technician            

  12 Architect, Town planner            

  13 Civil engineer (construction)            

  14

Engineer, Master of engineering, electrical power            

Information from employers organisations and labour unions

• Regular contacts with experts from different branches

• Branch councils at regional level and national level

• Expert group concerning occupational forecasts

Occupational Compass – a way of showing results

• A service of PES in Sweden (internet); labour market situation and prospects for a selection of occupations

• Guidance Support for both job seekers (young people - primary target group) and work seekers

• More effective matching process – shorter duration of vacancies – higher production – higher economic growth in the country - higher GDP

Results and output

• Labour Market Outlooks

A national report and 21 regional reports; one for each county, twice a year

• Occupational Tendency Survey

One national report published on the web, twice a year

• The Occupational Compass

web-based service launched in 2008, presenting labour market information and outlooks for a number of selected occupations (almost 200). For about half of these occupations: long term projections.

Example: Concrete workers

Summary

Statistics

Short term forecast

Long term forecast

Example: Concrete workers

Forecast, describing text

Example: Concrete workers

Short term forecast

Long term forecastingoccupations

in Sweden

Long term forecastinginformation sources• Statistical information – basic information• Information from employers organisations and

labour unions and other experts – structural changes

• Information from written reports and from other forecasters

• Difficult to ask about occupations in long terms by a questionnaire to employers – if so ask about structural changes for groups educated or of homogeny groups of occupations

Information from employers organisations and labour unions and other experts

• Regular contacts with experts from different branches

• Expert group at national level with experts from branches and institutions which works with long term forecasting

Supply and demand of labour analyse long trends

Statistical information

Demand of labour by occupation Changes in employment Occupational changers Retirements

Supply of labour by occupations Inflow of person into occupations Migration

Long term forecast concrete workers

Five years Ten years

Good opportunities to get a job

Opportunities to find a job 5-10 years ahead

The need to recruit concrete workers will increase over the next ten years. This is partly due to increased construction investments and large numbers of retirements.

The supply of skilled concrete workers is not sufficient because too few students study to the occupation.

The Public Employment Service's assessment is that skilled concrete workers have good opportunities to find a job. The labour market will vary in individual years depending on the business cycle.

Good opportunities to get a job

Example: Concrete workers

Long term forecast

Describing text

Labour Market Forecast by Occupations

Department of Analyses

Bild 31

• To create the shortage index – Large surplus, = value 1

– Surplus = value 2

– Balance = value 3

– Shortage = value 4

– Large shortage = value 5

• If all offices answer large surplus, the result in shortage index will be 1

The Occupational Tendency Survey

1 b) Estimation of the labour market situation for different occupations

Occupational area

Nr

OccupationLarge

surplusSurplus Balance Shortage

Large shortage

Science, 1 Physicists            

technology 2 Meteorologist            

and computing 3 Chemist            

  4 Geologist, Geophysicist etc            

  5 Mathematician            

  6 Statistician            

  7

Computer programmer, Computer systems designer, System architect, Computer engineer            

  8 Programmer, computing            

  9 IT-strategist, IT-analyst            

  10

Computer technologist (Network technician)            

  11 PC-technician            

  12 Architect, Town planner            

  13 Civil engineer (construction)            

  14

Engineer, Master of engineering, electrical power            

The Occupational Tendency Survey – Q1b

Shortage index: ((2*1)+(5*2)+(35*3)+(19*4)+(8*5))/69 = 3,38

Occupations 1b. Estimation of the situation on the labour market for different occupations one year ahead

Large surplus

Surplus Balance ShortageLarge

shortage

SSYK Craft and related trades workers

Building frame and related workers

7121 Bricklayer 2 5 35 19 87122 Stonemason

7123 Carpenter/joiner

7124 Foundation-workers

Bild 34

• The scale classification in the shortage index

– Index > 4.0 large shortage

– Index 3.3-3.99 shortage

– Index 2.9-3.29 balance

– Index 2.0-2.89 surplus

– Index < 2.0 large surplus

The Occupational Tendency Survey

Bristindex

Mjukvaru- och systemutvecklare

IT-arkitekter

Testare och testledare

Systemförvaltare/systemadm

Drifttekniker, IT

Helpdesktekniker/supporttekn

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom datayrken

Bristindex

Civiling gruvteknik, metallurgiCivilingenjörer, elkraft

Civilingenjörer bygg o anläggnVVS-ingenjörer

Civilingenjörer elektr teleteknByggnadsing o byggnadstekniker

Civilingenjörer, maskinMaskiningenjör o maskintekniker

Elingenjörer och elteknikerIng o tekn inom elektr o tele

Ing o tekn inom gruv o metallLantmätare

GIS-ingenjörerGeologer

FysikerArkitekter*

Civilingenjörer, kemiKemister

LaboratorieingenjörerKemiingenjörer och kemitekniker

1 2 3 4 5

* Under utredningKälla: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom teknikyrken

Bristindex

OperationssjuksköterskorLäkare

Sjuksköterskor, psyk.vård Sjuksköterskor, akutsjukvård

GeriatriksjuksköterskorRöntgensjuksköterskor

BarnmorskorBarnsjuksköterskorDistriktssköterskor

ApotekareReceptarierTandläkare

Optiker*Psykologer

Tandhygienister

1 2 3 4 5

* Under utredningKälla: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom hälsovårds-, sjukvårds-och omvårdnadsyrken

Bristindex

Biomedicinska analytiker

Sjuksköterskor, (grundutb.)

Tandsköterskor

Logopeder

Veterinärer

Sjukgymnaster

Arbetsterapeuter

Skötare

Dietister

Undersköterskor

Elevassistenter

Personliga assistenter

Vårdbiträden

Barnskötare

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom hälsovårds-, sjukvårds-och omvårdnadsyrken (forts)

Bristindex

Förskollärare

Gymnasielärare i yrkesämnen

Specialpedagoger

Trafiklärare

Fritidspedagoger

Universitets- o högskolelärare

Lärare, estetiska, prakt ämnen

Gymnasielärare i allm ämn

Lärare grundskolans tidigare år

Lärare i grundskolans senare år

Fritidsledare

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom utbildningsyrken

Bristindex

Revisorer

Redovisningsekonomer

Läkarsekreterare

Löne- och personalassistenter

Transportledare

Studie- och yrkesvägledare

Speditörer

Jurister

Socialsekreterare

Kuratorer

Miljö- o hälsoskyddsinspektörer

Biståndsbedömare

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom administrativa ochfinansiella yrken

Bristindex

Personaltjänstemän

Behandlingsassistenter

Bibliotekarier

Receptionister

Handläggar/Utredare off förv

Informatörer

Ekonomiassistenter

Språkvetare, översättare, tolk

Marknadsanalytiker, marknförare

Administratörer/sekreterare

Vaktmästare

Lagerarbete

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom administrativa och finansiella yrken (forts)

Bristindex

Företagssäljare

Inköpare

Telefonförsäljare

Försäkringstjänstemän

Bilförsäljare

Fastighetsmäklare

Banktjänstemän

Värdepappersmäklare

Försäljare dagligvaror

Försäljare fackhandel

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex för försäljningsyrken

Bristindex

KockarBartendrar

PoliserServitörer

KriminalvårdareBrandmän

FotterapeuterFlygvärdinnor

VäktareFrisörer

HudterapeuterTågvärdar

Renhållnings- och återvinningResesäljare

MassörerBaristor/cafébiträden

Godshanterare/expressbudFriskvårdskonsulenter

Köks- o restaurangbiträdenStädare

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom kundservice, restaurangoch annan service

Bristindex

Skogsmaskinförare

Jägmästare

Maskinförare, lantbruk

Lantmästare

Skogsarbetare

Skogsmästare

Djuruppfödare/djurskötare

Agronomer

Biologer

Parkarbetare

Trädgårdsarbetare

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom jord- och skogsbruksyrken

Bristindex

Taxiförare

Bussförare

Lokförare

Logistiker

Lastbilsförare

Flygledare

Piloter

Flygtekniker

Brevbärare

Truckförare

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom transportyrken

Bristindex

ByggnadsplåtslagareGolvläggare

VVS-montörerBetongarbetare

MurareTakmontörer

AnläggningsarbetarePlattsättareKranförare

Träarbetare/snickareAnläggningsmaskinförare

IsoleringsmontörerMålare

GlasmästareInstallationselektriker

FastighetsskötareGrovarb inom bygg o anläggn.

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom bygg- och anläggningsyrken

Bristindex

Lastbilsmekaniker

Styr- och reglermekaniker

Bergarbetare, gruva

Tunnplåtslagare

Larmtekniker

Verktygsmakare

CNC-operatörer

Grovplåtslagare

Maskinreparatörer

Drifttekniker värme, vatten

Bilmekaniker

Lackerare

Processoperatörer kemisk basind

Distributionselektriker*

Svetsare

Verkstadsmekaniker

1 2 3 4 5

* Under utredningKälla: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom tillverkningsyrken

Bristindex

Elmontörer

Låssmeder

Gjutare

Processoperatörer stål o metall

Maskinoperatörer sten o cement

Maskinoperatörer kemisk ind

Maskinoperatörer trävaruind

Processoperatörer trä o papper

Maskinoperatörer gummi o plast

Maskinoperatörer grafisk ind

Maskinoperatörer livsmedelsind

Fordonsmontörer

Montörer, el- teleutrustning

Mont metall, gummi plastprod

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom tillverkningsyrken (forts)

Bristindex

Bagare/konditorer

Styckare

Slaktare

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom övriga tillverkningsyrken

Bristindex

Ljudtekniker

Journalister

Fotografer

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom kulturyrken

Bristindex

Maskinbefäl, fartyg

Matroser

Fartygsbefäl

1 2 3 4 5

Källa: Arbetsförmedlingen våren 2012

Bristindex inom sjöfartsyrken