Observations to Operations: Why validation is important?

Julie ThomasScripps Institution of

Oceanography

Hydrographic Review Panel

Los Angeles, CAApril 9, 2015

Southern California CoastalObserving System -SCCOOS

SCCOOS Surface Currents

HF Radar, Santa Catalina provides surface currents

CDIP Mission:CDIP Mission:

• Based at SIO since 1975Based at SIO since 1975• • ~58 Wave Stations~58 Wave Stations LIDAR & In-Situ BeachLIDAR & In-Situ Beach

Surveys Surveys • • 17 People17 People• • Major Funding by:Major Funding by: USACE, USACE, DPRDPR• Partners Partners (IOOS, NOAA(IOOS, NOAA CA Coastal ConservancyCA Coastal Conservancy ONR/NAVY…)ONR/NAVY…)

Monitor and predict nearshore waves and shoreline change.

CCoastaloastal DDataata IInformationnformation PProgramrogram

CDIP Wave Buoys – CDIP Wave Buoys – NAVIGATIONNAVIGATION

MARSHALLISLANDS

GUAM

NorthernMarianaIslands

197-Tanapag,Saipan

121-Ipan196-RitidianPoint

163-Kalo,Majuro

201- ScrippsNearshore

096-DanaPoint100-TorreyPinesOuter

045-OceansideOffshore067- SanNicolasIsland203- SantaCruzBasin

092-SanPedro

107-GoletaPoint071-Harvest111-AnacapaPassage

157- PointSur158- Cabrillo PointNearshore156-MontereyCanyonOuter

142- SanFranciscoBar029- PointReyes

094-CapeMendocino

168-HumboldtBayNorthSpit

139-UmpquaOffshore

162-Clatsop Spit179-AstoriaCanyon

036-GraysHarbor

195- LaPerouseBank,Canada

CANADA

WASHINGTON

OREGON

CALIFORNIA

MEXICO

028- SantaMonicaBay

076-DiabloCanyon

043-CampPendletonNearshore

185-MontereyCanyonWest

HAWAII188-Hilo

187- Pauwela,Maui

146-Kaumalapau,Lanai

106-WaimeaBay198- KaneoheBay098-MokapuPoint

165-BarbersPoint

202-Hanalei,Kauai

191- Point LomaSouth093-MissionBay

ALASKA

204-LowerCookInlet

166-OceanStationPapa

205-Ketchikan

PUERTORICO

181-Rincon

FLORIDA

GEORGIA

SOUTHCAROLINA

NORTHCAROLINA

VIRGINIA

144-St.PetersburgOffshore

134- FortPierce

143-CapeCanaveral Nearshore

132- FernandinaBeach

200-WilmingtonHarbor150-Masonboro Inlet

190- NewRiver Inlet

192-Oregon Inlet430-DuckFRF

147- CapeHenry186- CapeCharles

154-Block Island

160- JeffreysLedge

PENNSYLVANIA

MARYLANDDELAWAREDISTRICTOFCOLUMBIA

NEWJERSEY

RHODEISLAND

NEWHAMPSHIRE

MASSACHUSETTS

VERMONT

CONNECTICUT

207- Fire IslandNearshore,NY

http://cdip.ucsd.edu

4.4 million page views from Jun 2013 – Jun 2014Data sent to NDBC @ 30 min and distributed to NWS

Full Directional Spectrum exposure for San Pedro buoy (2000-present)

Recent Damage to the Breakwater: >8ft South

Swell

CDIP’s high resolution wave models allows for accurate forecasts.

Spatial variation due to island shadowing allows coastal variability. Wave heights Differ according to direction of the waves.

PORT of Los Angeles and Long Beach

Big waves, big trouble? headline in Occounty.com, Jul 24, 2009

Pilots xfer 4 mi out

Port of Long BeachUnder Keel Clearance! Under Keel Clearance!

Approach channel is Dredged ~ 2 miles offshore

Presently VLCC’s with 65’ draft enter the port. Must have 10% UKC.

Panamax Vessels69ft draft1200’ Length: 1 pitch = 10.47ft⁰

Importance of ValidationAccuracy of Under Keel Clearance is critical

for human and vessel safety. •MODELS need to be tested under all conditions (Approximately 1 year of wave heights and wave directions). Small errors due to boundary conditions, island shadowing, bathymetry can propagate.

VLCC – 1200 ft length

June 2014 - San Pedro Wave Buoy measured 21ft peak, at 13-14 sec. An ATC Oil Tanker rolled 10 degrees at the Long Beach Breakwater entrance. The vessel had a 55 ft draft, 160 ft wide. The roll increased the draft to 64 feet. (Channel currently dredged to 69ft)

SP 020 20.81 m Depth(68.27 ft)

SP021 25.36 m Depth(83.20 ft)

- Installation of San Pedro South- Wave model locations identified and hourly submission to ProTide

San Pedro Buoy observation vs WW3 Model Predictions- Messaging to Jacobsen Pilots

Model is overpredicting by >1 ft Significant Wave height.

Prediction site: SP018Date (PST) 14+ Hs 14+ Tp 14+ Dp Tot Hs Tot Tp Tot Dp

(ft) (secs) (deg T) (ft) (secs) (deg T)2015-03-25 04:00 pm 2.82 18.18 175 3.18 18.18 1752015-03-25 07:00 pm 2.85 18.18 175 3.28 18.18 1752015-03-25 10:00 pm 2.89 16.67 173 3.41 16.67 1732015-03-26 01:00 am 2.85 16.67 173 3.38 16.67 1732015-03-26 04:00 am 2.82 16.67 173 3.25 16.67 1732015-03-26 07:00 am 2.82 16.67 173 3.18 16.67 1732015-03-26 10:00 am 2.72 15.38 173 3.05 15.38 173

San Pedro Real-Time Observations and

Models

http:http://cdip.ucsd.edu/custom_pages/marine_exchange/marine_exchange.html

UKC project is a perfect example of federal, state

and local partnerships are working!