obregon 2003 souza, kayano, ambrizzi 2005
TRANSCRIPT
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Obregon 2003
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Obregon 2003
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Souza, Kayano, Ambrizzi 2005
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Souza, Kayano, Ambrizzi 2005
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The beginning...
R.A. Madden and P.R. Julian. 1971: Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 28, No. 5, pp. 702–708.
R.A. Madden and P.R. Julian. 1972: Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 1109–1123.
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INTRASEASONAL
Mode
~ 30 – 70 days
planetary wave (MJO)
SUB-MONTHLY
Mode
~ 15 – 30 days
4-6 zonal wavenumber
Intraseasonal variability ( ~ 15-90 dias)
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Primavera
Primavera
Verão Verão
Outono Outono
Vitorino et al., 2006
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Souza and Ambrizzi 2006
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Carvalho et al., 2004
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16
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Souza and Ambrizzi 2006
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Cunningham and Cavalcanti, 2006
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19
Dia –18
Dia –15
Dia –12
Dia –9
Dia -6
CHI200; V200 OLR; qV SST;V1000
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20
Dia –3
Dia 0
Dia +3
Dia +6
Dia +9
CHI200; V200 OLR; qV SST;V1000
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CPTEC: Kuo DERF RAS GRELLCPTEC: Kuo DERF RAS GRELL
NCEP ECMWF
IRI CPTEC ETA
NCEP ECMWF
IRI CPTEC ETA
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REDE ESTADUAL DE PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA E
HIDROMETEOROLÓGICA DO PARÁ
RPCHEXECUTOR:
UFPA - Everaldo Souza (Coordenador)
CO-EXECUTORES:
SECTAM (NHM) INMET (2º DISME) SIPAM (CTO-BELÉM)
CONVÊNIO 3641/06
REDE ESTADUAL DE PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA E
HIDROMETEOROLÓGICA DO PARÁ
RPCHEXECUTOR:
UFPA - Everaldo Souza (Coordenador)
CO-EXECUTORES:
SECTAM (NHM) INMET (2º DISME) SIPAM (CTO-BELÉM)
CONVÊNIO 3641/06
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Objetivo da RPCH:Objetivo da RPCH:
Implementar e sistematizar um Rede integrada de pesquisa e previsão climática no Estado do Pará, focalizando a escala de tempo sazonal e intrasazonal, com vistas ao aprimoramento do conhecimento científico sobre a climatologia dinâmica tropical e, consequentemente, tanto melhorar como aumentar a capacidade de desenvolvimento das previsões das condições do clima regional sobre a Amazônia oriental.
Implementar e sistematizar um Rede integrada de pesquisa e previsão climática no Estado do Pará, focalizando a escala de tempo sazonal e intrasazonal, com vistas ao aprimoramento do conhecimento científico sobre a climatologia dinâmica tropical e, consequentemente, tanto melhorar como aumentar a capacidade de desenvolvimento das previsões das condições do clima regional sobre a Amazônia oriental.
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Metas físicas da RPCH:Metas físicas da RPCH:
• Estudos observacionais;
• Modelagem climática regional (RegCM3 for Amazon);
• Análise e modelagem hidrometeorológica;
• Implementação e consolidação das Discussões Mensais de Análise e Previsão Climática;
• Estabelecer mecanismos de disseminação e aplicação da informação e previsão climática.
• Estudos observacionais;
• Modelagem climática regional (RegCM3 for Amazon);
• Análise e modelagem hidrometeorológica;
• Implementação e consolidação das Discussões Mensais de Análise e Previsão Climática;
• Estabelecer mecanismos de disseminação e aplicação da informação e previsão climática.
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Equipe da RPCH:Equipe da RPCH:
EveraldoAuroraGaldinoJosé RicardoMidoriHernaniJoão BatistaPaulo SouzaCarvalhoCattanioDaniloIsaJuliaRenatoBergssonRosileneTiago
EveraldoAuroraGaldinoJosé RicardoMidoriHernaniJoão BatistaPaulo SouzaCarvalhoCattanioDaniloIsaJuliaRenatoBergssonRosileneTiago
EdsonJorgeRodrigoCesarMarcioRolim
EdsonJorgeRodrigoCesarMarcioRolim
PauloTiagoReginaldo
PauloTiagoReginaldo
J.RaimundoAlcyRaiSandim
J.RaimundoAlcyRaiSandim
Estudantes e Bolsistas
Pós-Graduação: Douglas Marcio João Paulo Andressa Saulo Antonio Denise
Estudantes e Bolsistas
Pós-Graduação: Douglas Marcio João Paulo Andressa Saulo Antonio Denise
Pessoal diretamete envolvido:12 Doutores, 8 Mestres, ~25 Graduados, 2 Mestrandos, 2 Bolsas Iniciação Científica
Outras instituições:Defesa Cilvil, ADA, UFRA Pedro Martorano Pacheco Major Norat Paula
Outras instituições:Defesa Cilvil, ADA, UFRA Pedro Martorano Pacheco Major Norat Paula
Parcerias:IEPA, INPE e IAG-USP Alan Assunção Gandú Pablo Luciano Tércio Rose
Parcerias:IEPA, INPE e IAG-USP Alan Assunção Gandú Pablo Luciano Tércio Rose
Graduação: Ronaldo Luis Felipe Chymeny Carlos Sheila Hildo Alex
Graduação: Ronaldo Luis Felipe Chymeny Carlos Sheila Hildo Alex
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Belém city ~ 1960
Belém city ~ 2000
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Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia
MÉDIA ANUAL DA TEMPERATURA DO AR (ºC)
BELÉM/PA (1923 – fev/2007)
25,0
25,3
25,5
25,8
26,0
26,3
26,5
26,8
27,0
27,3
27,5
19211923192519271929193119331935193719391941194319451947194919511953195519571959196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007
Anos
Tem
pera
tura
do
Ar (o
C)
Média Anual Média Tendência Linear
Cortesia: J. Raimundo
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Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia
VARIAÇÃO SAZONAL DO CLIMOGRAMA
BELÉM/PA (1930 – 2007)
50
80
110
140
170
200
230
260
290
320
350
380
410
440
470
Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez
Prec
ipita
ção
(mm
)
25,2
25,4
25,6
25,8
26,0
26,2
26,4
26,6
26,8
Tem
pera
tura
(ºC
)
1930 - 19601961 - 19901991 - 2006Até 21/mar/07Tmed
Cortesia: J. Raimundo
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