SUSTAINABILITY OF

AUTOMOBILE FUELS

Amarjit Singh

University of Hawaii at Manoa

PROBLEM STATEMENT

2

95% of the world’s transportation sector relies

on petroleum oil.

The world has 1.3 trillion bbl of proven oil reserves, being

consumed at 85 million bbl / day. This will last only 42 years.

With 2% growth per year, the oil will last 31 years!

PROBLEM STATEMENT

3

Improved efficiency gasoline engines are only a band-aid

solution

New oilfield discoveries may add 2~4 years, at most.

An alternative fuel needs to be found for transportation

in order to avoid a crisis.

4

PREMISE

Can only plan for tomorrow with the technology of today

“Better to fix the known than wait for the unknown”

(Ancient Arabic Proverb)

AUTOMOBILES AROUND THE WORLD

MANILA

DELHI

BEIJING 5

HANOI SEOUL TEHRAN 6

7

PARIS MOSCOW WASHINGTON DC

CONCEPT CARS AND

FEASIBLE CARS

8

CONCEPT CARS

Wind-powered, solar-powered, flying-cars,

nuclear-powered, and algae-fueled cars

Closer to science fiction than reality

FEASIBLE CARS

Natural gas, hydrogen fuel cells, biofuels,

hybrid vehicles, and electric

vehicles

NATURAL GAS

9

NATURAL GAS FUEL (- NON

RENEWABLE)

10

Propane – Uses LPG

CNG – Burns methane

• Natural gas fuels emit 1/3rd fewer reactive organic gases.

• Performance is similar to a gasoline-powered car

• Range is 25% less than gasoline cars because of the lower energy content of fuel.

• Propane engines last twice as long as conventional engines – lower maintenance.

NATURAL GAS RESOURCE

LIMITATIONS

11 No. of cars using natural gas in the world =

275,000

2008-10 Data

12

OIL SHALE, OIL SANDS, PRESALT

DEEPWATER, TIGHT OIL, &

ARCTIC OFFSHORE

RESOURCE AVAILABILITY FOR “NEW”

AND ‘UNCONVENTIONAL” OILS

13

14

HYDROGEN FUEL

HYDROGEN FUEL

15

HYDROGEN CARS

Hydrogen internal combustion engine

vehicle (HICEV)

Produces nitrous oxides

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV)

Electrochemical cell produces electricity

from hydrogen

Water is a byproduct

First fuel cell conceived in 1839

HYDROGEN

BENEFITS

Zero emission vehicle

Electricity, heat, water

Very efficient use of

on- board hydrogen

Uses renewable fuel

source

16

Greenhouse gases are 95% water vapor

How much can the atmosphere hold?

and …>>

HYDROGEN CONCERNS

17

H2 car currently

costs $300,000

H2 infrastructure in USA could

cost $500 billion, but manageable

over 50 years

Pt cells malfunction

below 32 degrees F

H2 is sometimes

stored in high

pressure tanks,

up to 5000 psi.

These cause

potential safety

and storage

issues that have

not yet been fully

resolved.

MIRACLES NEEDED

18

Dr. Steven Chu: need four miracles for HFCVs to become reality

1. Cost

2. Infrastructure

3. Fuel cell

4. Storage

PLATINUM RESOURCE

CONSTRAINT

19

WORLD USA

Platinum reserves (billion oz.) 1

No. of cars produced per year (million) 50 7.5

Pt in cars produced per year (million oz.) 125 18.75

Pt is depleted (years) 8 53

Amt of platinum needed per car = 2.5 oz for 100 KW cell (typ.)

Recycling Pt will mean that growth will not be accommodated

20

BIOFUELS

BIOFUELS

21

Most common alternative fuel in the U.S. today

1. Ethanol fuel

Energy from burning of alcohol

and sugars

Used in gasoline engine

2. Biodiesel

Energy derived from fatty acids

such as vegetable oils and animal fats

Used in diesel engine

Saving the US 304 million gallons of gasoline each year 0.21% of annual US consumption

ETHANOL

E10 to E100

Emissions reduced by 10% – 30%

Ethanol engines are 67% as efficient as gasoline engines, which have only an efficiency of 14% 22

LAND ISSUES: CORN

and SUGAR FOR

ETHANOL

23

USA

Ethanol Produced (billion gallons)

Gasoline Consumed

(billion gallons)

Arable Land

(million acres)

% Arable Land Area

Arable Land in USA 396

Current ethanol consumed 9 24.7 6.2%

Current gasoline consumed 146

Corn ethanol for 250 m cars 219 590 149%

Sugar ethanol for 250 m cars 31 84 23%

GGE: 1 gallon of gasoline = 1.5 gallons of CORN ethanol

1 acre of land yields ~ 370 gallons of CORN ethanol

SUGAR CANE

ETHANOL

Sugar based ethanol is 7 times more efficient than corn, but sugar grows only in warm climates (23% of land area)

Hence, fuel dependence could shift from oil-producing countries to sugar-producing countries in tropical regions. {Change the WORLD ORDER}

24

25

BIODIESEL

26

BIODIESEL (GGE = 0.96) - PALM AND SOY

OIL

Biodiesel yields 320% more energy

per gallon than is

required for production (13 times

better than corn ethanol)

27

Lowers carcinogenic properties of diesel

fuel by 94%

Through its life cycle, biodiesel reduces

greenhouse gas

emissions by 41%

28

USA

Biodiesel Production

(billion gallons)

Gasoline Consumed

(billion gallons)

Arable Land

(million acres)

% Arable Land Area

Arable Land in USA 396

Gasoline consumption current 146

Soy Oil for 250 million cars 140 2,000 505%

Palm Oil for 250 million cars 140 280 71%

GGE: 1 gallon of gasoline = 0.96 gallons of biodiesel

1 acre of land yields ~ 70 gallons of soy oil and 500 gallons of palm oil

LAND ISSUES: SOY AND

PALM OIL FOR ETHANOL

Algae research promises to

deliver fuel by using only

1.1% of the arable land!

29

HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES

30

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

STRONG HYBRID

Able to run on just batteries, just engine,

or combination

[Toyota Prius]

POWER ASSIST HYBRID

Runs on gasoline but uses electric

motor for additional power when needed

[Honda Insight]

Increased fuel efficiency;

regenerative breaking …

HYBRID CONCERNS

31

Still rely on gasoline as the source of fuel

Even if every vehicle in the U.S. was a hybrid by 2025,

because of growth in vehicle use, the U.S. would still need to import the same

amount of oil that it does today.

RESOURCE CONSTRAINT:

RARE EARTH ELEMENTS

32

Toyota Prius is the largest user

• 2.2 lbs of neodymium for electric motor

• 22-32 lbs of lanthanum for NiMH battery

China controls 95% of REEs

• has been reducing exports every year since 2004

• plans to stop exports by 2013

Million

lbs Cars Years

World Reserves 13.2 bn - -

Amount per Prius 27 - -

No. of Cars Possible - 489

Years this can last - - 10

LANTHANUM

LANTHANUM

RESOURCES

FOR NIMH

BATTERIES

33

10

Note: Current Production of cars in the world = 50 million/ year

34

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

35

Avoid use of REE by using AC motor (Tesla) and lithium ion battery (GM)

BATTERIES

AC or DC Motor

Charging typ. Takes 8 hours

36

Lead-acid

• cheap, easily available, very heavy

• limited capacity (12 Kwh), limited range

• short life; disposal problems

Nickel-metal hydride (NiMH)

• doubles the range

• long-lasting (RAV 4)

Lithium ion

•twice the capacity of NiMH in half the weight

• (Chevy VOLT and Tesla ROADSTAR)

•Zero emissions while in use

LITHIUM RESOURCE

CONCERNS: WORLD

37

Li in ground (million tonnes)

LiCO3 (million tonnes)

Cars Produced (billions)

Li runs out in

(years)

28.4 150 2.14 43

Li in Ocean (million tonnes)

238,878 1,261,682 18,000 360,000

0.5% of Li in Ocean (million tonnes)

1,194 6,308 90 1,800

•Each car uses 70 kg (typ.) of LiCO3

•50 million cars produced per year

•1 KWh requires 1.4Kg

Ocean mining costs

$30/kg cf. $8/kg on land

ELECTRIC CAPACITY - USA

38

U.S. current installed capacity: 1,031 GW

250 million cars charging 8 kW over 8 hrs each night requires 250 gigawatts installed capacity

Charging mostly done at night when demand for power is low

Hence, additional capacity is not deemed necessary

39

EXTENDED RANGE ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EREV)

& PLUG-IN HYBRID

VEHICLES (PHEV)

PHEV and EREV OPERATIONAL

CHARACTERISTICS

40

•The car is essentially an electric vehicle with a gas-tank backup.

• Runs on batteries, but uses an ICE to power a generator to charge the batteries when the batteries are low.

• Engine can be ICE on biofuel, or fuel cell …

PLUG-IN

HYBRID

ELECTRIC

VEHICLE:

PHE

V

EXTENDED

RANGE

ELECTRIC

VEHICLE:

EREV

PHEV AND EREV CONCERNS

Same electric, ethanol, gasoline, and fuel cell concerns as already discussed previously

41

42

Solutions

43

Solution 1: A Mix of

Technologies

Use a little bit of every technology

Reduces strain on

the resources

Lesser trauma for technology changeover

Overall life is

still 161 years

Possible Future of Automobiles

Biodiesel (sugar) powered engines

Enough biodiesel (sugar) could be grown on 23% of arable land, which is quite doable

Will entail major political changes in the world, a major shift in world power, and major reprioritization. (Best of luck!)

44

Solution 2: Sugar

Ethanol

SUMMARY

45

46

“PROMISES” &

“HOPES”

Li-S batteries can increase range by 5

times; Li-air by 10 times

1/10th the amount of

platinum can be used in a

fuel cell

Algae to power all US cars can grow

on 1.1% of arable land

47

RUMOURS

FINDINGS

48

World dependence on oil is a security and economical risk for many countries

The current use of automobiles is creating a scenario in which the world will run out of oil and earth minerals

The system is NOT SUSTAINABLE

A completely new world order will be necessary

It will be nothing like we are used to

Changes are possible: but strong political will is necessary, and may come at an

immense cost

49

50

51

EPILOGUE

52

53

Price: $500 for Horse and Carriage; $200 for

Bullock Cart

Manufacturing: very easy

Emissions: nothing to worry about; biodegradable

Benefits: Fertilizer by-product; leather; oils

Recycling: not necessary

R&M: Spare parts not needed; [more veterinarians

required]

Useful working life: 12~18 years

Health effects: Return to easy pace of life; reduce

stress 54

55

56

57

58

59

We hope things can work out!