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PHD CANDIDATE OANA IACOB Natural flood management as a climate change adaptation option 11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013 Dundee

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Page 1: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

P H D C A N D I D A T E

OANA IACOB

Natural flood management as a climate change adaptation option

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013 Dundee

Page 2: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Outline

Introduction to ecosystem services

Climate change threat

What is natural flood management?

Tarland study catchment

Hydrological modelling

Land use scenarios

Climate change scenarios

Hydrological modelling tool

Conclusions

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 3: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Introduction to ecosystem services

Humans have always depended on nature for environmental assets like clean water, nutrient cycling and soil formation.

These have been called by different names through human history, but are presently gaining global attention as ‘ecosystem services’.

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 4: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Ecosystem services

Humans have changed ecosystems to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fibre and fuel.

This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth.

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 5: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

UK NEA (2011): Relative importance of, and trends in theimpact of direct drivers on UK ecosystem services

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Sea levels are rising

Glaciers are retreating

Rainfall patterns are changing

Increased frequency of extreme events

Climate change~ 1 in 22 of all residential properties & 1 in 13 of all non-residential properties at risk of flooding

The average annual damages ~ £720 million to £850 million

Page 7: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Engineered schemes or natural flood management?

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 8: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

What is Natural Flood Management?

NFM involves the restoration or utilisation of ‘natural’ land cover and channel-floodplain features within catchments through

storing water

increasing soil infiltration

slowing water

reducing water flow connectivity

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 9: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Location within the catchment for NFM techniques

WWF Scotland, 2011

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

fisheries

carbon sequestration

oxygen production

biodiversity

recreation

water quality

flood protection

water supply

climate regulation

Page 10: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Representation of expected Engineered (Eng) and NFM strategies behaviour in no climate change conditions and with climate change (Iacob et al., 2013)

c)

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 11: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Dee catchment, Tarland subbasin

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

• Centrally situated tributary of the River Dee in north east of Scotland• Approximately 77 km2

• The upper and lower Tarland includes the village of Tarland (600 people) and Aboyne ( 2200 people)

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Tarland subbasin

Issues identified:

1. Flooding

2. Low flows

3. Loss of habitats

4. Poor water quality

5. Loss of biodiversity

Soil map Tarland Land use map Tarland

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

DEM and river network Tarland

Page 13: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Modelling land use and climate scenarios

Land use scenarios

Climate change

scenarios

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Land use scenarios are being developed to explore spatial issues and scale issues but also assessing the impacts of different policy driven land use scenarios and identify their impacts on NFM options performance

WaSiM-ETH

Hydrological response

Page 14: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Land use scenarios

Brown et. all, 2012

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 15: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Climate change scenarios

Climate Change Projections are available for Scotland at a 25 km grid size and 12 km grid size

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 16: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

WaSiM-ETH model

Fully distributed, physically based model for estimating climate change impacts

The model has a good flexibility in separating surface runoff from interflow allowing a good reproduction of flood events.

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Schulla , 2012

Page 17: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

Conclusions

Climate change poses new challenges that need new approaches for flood risk management

Natural flood management has the potential to deliver ‘low regret’ solutions

Time lags must be considered in

flood vulnerable communities

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013

Page 18: Oana Iacob @FTF2013

QUESTIONS

Thank you!

11 April, Facing the Future Symposium 2013