nwp activities at inm bartolomé orfila estrada area de modelización - inm 28th ewglam & 13th...
TRANSCRIPT
NWP Activities at INM
Bartolomé Orfila EstradaArea de Modelización - INM
28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
Zürich, October 2005
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
2
Introduction
Operational activities. Computer resources Hirlam as operational model. Wave model. Verification.
Research in NWP: Hirlam project.
Data Assimilation Dynamic in Hirlam Physical parameterizations
SREPS
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
3
Computer resources
Cray X1e 15 nodes, 8 MSP’s each node 4 SSP’s each MSP 320 Gb memory 2.3 TF peak performance
Official acceptance: June 2005
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
4
Cray X1e MSP
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
5
Hirlam operational model
ONR 0.16 deg latxlon, 40 levels 72 hours forecast, 4 times a day 3DVAR BC’s from ECMWF
HNR and CNN 0.05 deg latxlon, 40 levels 36 hours forecast, 4 times a day 3DVAR BC’s from ONR
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
6
ONR integration area
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
7
HNR – CNN integration areas
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
8
Verification 2006
Standard verification against observations.
Verification against Spanish High Resolution precipitation network.
Monthly comparison ONR-HNR models for Spain.
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
9
Geopotential June-August 2006
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
10
MSLP June-August 2006
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
11
Precip. by thresholds POD-FAR
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
12
Wave operational model
WAM 4 for Atlantic and Mediterranean
High resolution shallow water model
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
13
Wave operational model
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
14
High Resolution Wave operational model
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
15
Hirlam Project – Data Assimilation
3DVAR in operational models. Assimilation of GPS data (TOUGH project). Test of Hirlam 4DVAR in the Cray X1e. Soil moisture analysis comparison
between Hirlam reference system and 1DVAR version (ELDAS project).
Mesoscale Rapid Update Cycle of analysis of surface parameters.
Assimilation of VAD winds from INM radar network.
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
16
Spring period: 15 April-15 May 2004
Impact of introducing 31 new GPS sites
ETS and TSS show that increasing the number of GPS sites improves model precipitation.
Verification with INM Climate stations (upscaled to 22km).
PP thresholds (0.1, 0.3, 1., 3., 10., 30., 100. mm in 24 hours)
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
17
Hirlam Project – Dynamics
HIRLAM contribution to ALADIN dynamics: Improvement of the treatment of the map factor in the
ALADIN semi-implicit scheme. Testing of the rotated Mercator coordinate options, with a view to efficiency for large domains.
HIRALD System: Testing together the three major parts of the physical
parametrizations from HIRLAM Model: turbulence, condensation/convection and radiation into ALADIN Model
Validation of mesoscale model on test cases
ESEOO Project: Development and Implementation of a Spanish Operational Oceanography System
HIRALD SYSTEM
HIRLAM
Spain (11 km): ALADIN
Spain (2.5 km): ALADIN-NH
Nesting of the grids HIRLAM / ALADIN:
• A double nested system is used over Spanish region, with the centre of the high resolution domain over Spain.
• The outer model (11 Km grid size) is hydrostatic.
• The high resolution domain (2.5 Km grid size) runs in non-hydrostatic mode.
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
19
Spanish Operational Oceanography system definition and design
2 Data3 Meteorological modelling
4 Oceanographic modelling
• Data inventory• Data format homogenisation• Quality control• Homogeneous data processing • Data protocol for emergencies
• Limited area models• Non-hydrostatic high resolution models• Study of ocean-atmosphere fluxes parameterisations
• Global scale circulation• Regional scale circulation• Local scale circulation• Relocatable local circulation models• Comparison and validation• Data Assimilation• Wave and sea level modelling (regional and local scales)
Oceanographic data and modelling R&D
5 Dispersion modelling
• Forcing definition and optimisation• Regional scale modelling• Local scale modelling• Relocatable models• Comparison and Validation
6 Pre-operational systems implementation
1 System definition
• Creation of a users group • Operational requirements definition.• Emergency procedures definition
• Integration of Teledetection data in the system• Benefits and requirements definition of a future permanent inter-institutional national operational oceanography service.
Operational Phase
• Analysed data service• Real time data directory• Regional modelling systems• Local modelling systems• Simulated emergency system co-ordination exercise •Transfer to operational Phase
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
20
Hirlam Project – Physics
Convection: New moist scheme based on Kain-Fritsch
convection and Rasch-Kristjannsson large scale implemented into the HIRLAM reference system.
Vectorized code available. Forecast 10-20 % more expensive and even
more on vector computers (vector optimization in progress).
Improvement of precipitation over Iberia.
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
21
SREPS - Multi-model Multi-boundaries
Models: Hirlam. HRM MM5 UM LM
Boundaries ECMWF UM AVN GME
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
22
Ensemble
72 hours forecast two times a day (00 and 12 UTC).
Characteristics: 5 models. 4 boundary conditions. 2 last ensembles (HH and HH-12).
20 member ensemble every 12 hours Time-lagged Super-Ensemble of 40
members every 12 hours.
October 2006 28th EWGLAM & 13th SRNWP Meetings
23
Road Map2003-2004 Research to find best ensemble for the Short
Range
Jun 04 – Jun 05 Building Multimodel System
Jun 05-Dec 05 Mummubn/16 members
Daily run non-operational
Mar 06 Mummub 16/16 members
Once a day
Jun 06 Mummub20 members
Twice a day
July 06 Obs verfication
September 06 40 member lagged Super-
ensemble
Twice a day
October 06 BMA Calibration
January 07 Broadcast products Experimental