numad cost tool€¦ · summer internship summary rachel koh student intern ... cost report output...
TRANSCRIPT
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Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,
for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration
under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
NuMAD Cost Tool: Summer Internship Summary
Rachel Koh Student Intern
Mentor: Brian Naughton Manager: Dave Minster
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Introduction
Ph.D. Student, Univ. of Massachusetts Amherst
Lab Affiliations: Wind Energy Center / Sustainable Building Materials Group
Academic Thrust Areas: Materials Science and Wind Energy
Dissertation Topic: Integration of Bio-based Materials into Megawatt-Scale Wind Turbine Blades
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Project Goals
Review and summarize existing blade manufacturing cost models
Identify cost model requirements for integration with SNL design tools and adapt from existing design tools
Modify NuMAD to integrate new cost model
Do a blade cost study to demonstrate/validate tool
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Presentation Outline
Summary of existing cost models
Motivation/Development of NuMAD cost tool
Tool Validation
Demonstration: Parametric Analyses
Future Work
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Existing Cost Models
Tool/Model/Author Year public? fidelity scaling format strengths, limitations, notes
WindPACT (SNL/TPI) 2003 Y low-med limited Report/ TPI
quotes
manufacturing scaling and
trends analysis; somewhat
outdated
NREL Cost and
Scaling 2006 Y low yes excel trends analysis; looks at entire
turbine; very little detail
Fraunhofer IWES N med yes excel non-US reference; automation
analyses
SNL / Johanns-Griffith 2013 Y high- labor
med-materials yes excel high fidelity labor
NREL / James-
Goodrich 2013 N multi yes excel considers financing; labor
based on SNL (2013)
TPI / Nolet 2014 N med no excel industry experience; current
data; includes CAPEX
NREL / Berry IP N high IP excel
very thorough materials
analysis; other components
currently unfinished
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Cost Tool Priorities
Integration with NuMAD
Highly automated for optimization
Medium-high fidelity
Format to integrate with other blade design tools
Low CPU time
Minimal changes to existing NuMAD codes and interfaces
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Aside: Current State of NuMAD
preNuMAD: move to object-oriented programming
• motivations included incorporation of a cost tool
• improved ability to manage software complexity
• improved efficiency
blade object
• properties, e.g. blade.sparcapwidth, blade.materials, blade.materials(6).density
• methods, e.g. blade.generateCost, blade.generateCostReport
currently, blade object is defined manually or in excel input (xlsBlade.m) and gets converted back to NuMAD
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Integrated Blade Cost Tool
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Cost Tool Input added fields:
type
cost
cost unit
waste rate
resin infusion
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Cost Tool Input
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Integrated Blade Cost Tool
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Cost Report Output SNL 5MW 61.5m Carbon Spar
78%
12%
2%
8%
Total Manufacturing Cost
materials
labor
molds
CAPEX
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< 1%1%9%
2%
13%
41%
15%
11%
6%2%
Materials Cost
Gelcoat
E-LT-5500(UD)
SNL(Triax)
Saertex(DB)
FOAM
Carbon(UD)
Resin
waste
Misc.
Consumables
Cost Report Output SNL 5MW 61.5m Carbon Spar
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Cost Report Output SNL 5MW 61.5m Carbon Spar
8%
6%
7%
9%
19%
10%
13%
11%
2%1%
4%
6%
4%
Labor Hours
Spar Caps
All Shear Webs
TE Prefabs
Root Prefabs and Small Parts
HP and LP Molds
Infusion
Prebond Assembly and Bond
Trim, Inspection, Wet Layup
T-Bolts
Cure
Edge Finishing
Prep Paint and Paint
Balance and Loading
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Cost Report Output SNL 5MW 61.5m Carbon Spar
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Additional Functions / Features
SNL materials library
Adaptable to custom manufacturing process steps
• labor40_xls2mat.m
• update or define custom steps in excel
Accepts many cost data input types
• cost in $/lb, $/m2, etc.
• resin infusion by vol. fraction, areal spread
< ¼ second CPU time
extensive error handling
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Model Validation
many points of reference
shown here: GLWN Manufacturing Competitiveness Study
• 5MW
• 61.5m
• design from SNL/NREL
• data from 8 factories in different regions
• 3 from USA manufacturers
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Model Validation
$25,982.00 $23,359.00 $17,708.00 $23,199.19
$46,698.00 $61,600.00
$44,942.00 $46,981.87
$32,860.00
$41,345.00
$104,494.00
$28,902.00
$31,560.00
$40,210.00
$49,395.00
$35,499.00
$-
$50,000.00
$100,000.00
$150,000.00
$200,000.00
$250,000.00
$300,000.00
USA Germany China SNL Cost Tool
Blade Materials Cost by Region
Auxiliary/Consumables
LPS
Hardware
Adhesive
Epoxy
Foams
Gelcoat
Saertex +/-45
Carbon-Uni
ELT-5500
CDB340
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Model Validation
201.3
43.1
194.7
0
768.8
841.1
828.7
768.3
282
272.6
399.3
382
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
USA Germany China SNL
Blade Manufacturing Process Labor Hours
Finishing Steps
Fabrication Steps
Preparation Steps
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Model Validation
$147,825.00
$184,084.00
$247,028.00
$157,050.00
$31,300.00
$39,912.00
$11,103.00
$37,660.00
$78,762.00
$117,430.00 $29,003.00
$29,560.00
$-
$50,000.00
$100,000.00
$150,000.00
$200,000.00
$250,000.00
$300,000.00
$350,000.00
$400,000.00
USA Germany China SNL Cost Tool
Total Blade Manufacturing Cost
Capex
Labor
Materials
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Parametric Analysis
61.5m carbon spar blade
single-parameter variation: carbon cost
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< 1%< 1%8%
2%
12%
47%
< 1%
13%
10%
5%1%Materials Cost
Gelcoat
E-LT-5500(UD)
SNL(Triax)
Saertex(DB)
FOAM
Carbon(UD)
E-LT-5500(ISO)
Resin
waste
Misc.
Consumables
Parametric Analysis
< 1%< 1%11%
3%
16%
31%
< 1%
18%
11%
7%2%
Materials Cost
Gelcoat
E-LT-5500(UD)
SNL(Triax)
Saertex(DB)
FOAM
Carbon(UD)
E-LT-5500(ISO)
Resin
waste
Misc.
Consumables
76%
13%
2%8%
Total Manufacturing Cost
materials
labor
molds
CAPEX
Total Cost:
199k
79%
12%
2%7%
Total Manufacturing Cost
materials
labor
molds
CAPEX
< 1%< 1%10%
3%
14%
40%
< 1%
15%
11%
6%2%Materials Cost
Gelcoat
E-LT-5500(UD)
SNL(Triax)
Saertex(DB)
FOAM
Carbon(UD)
E-LT-5500(ISO)
Resin
waste
Misc.
Consumables
Total Cost:
227k
81%
11%
2%7%
Total Manufacturing Cost
materials
labor
molds
CAPEXTotal Cost:
254k
20$/kg 30$/kg 40$/kg
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Future Work
Optimization
• What do optimal blades look like when we optimize for cost?
• Tip Speed Study blades
• High-Modulus Carbon Fiber (properties-cost tradeoffs)
• Bio-based materials
CAPEX/Factory Model
Integration with AEP tool
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Acknowledgements
Mentor: Brian Naughton
Design Codes: Jon Berg
NRT: Brian Resor
Supervisor: Dave Minster
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Thank You