nr. 1

Decision Support for TT HueDecision Support for TT Hue

Tools, Experts, Training &Advice

Marieke Nieuwaal

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Decision Support for TT HueDecision Support for TT Hue

Problem areas Problem areas that need that need adviceadvice::

• floodingflooding

• water quality water quality problemsproblems

• user conflicts on user conflicts on land and waterland and water

• coastal erosion & coastal erosion & tidal inlets tidal inlets behaviourbehaviour

• creating local expertisecreating local expertise

nr. 3

Decision Support for TT HueDecision Support for TT Hue

1) Decision support needs experts for application 1) Decision support needs experts for application of tools, analysis of results and advise to of tools, analysis of results and advise to government.government.

2) Therefore we propose to create a local base of 2) Therefore we propose to create a local base of trained people and sustainable basis for training trained people and sustainable basis for training and education in Hue.and education in Hue.

3) This can be achieved by involving the 3) This can be achieved by involving the University and strengthening the capability of University and strengthening the capability of the College of Sciences. the College of Sciences.

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Time schedule

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

1. Milestones

- ICZM Strategy 2004

- Priority Action Plans

- Updated ICZM Strategy/PAPs 2008

2. Lagoon Project NPC

3. CCP

4. IDRC

5. VNICZM

- Phase 1

- Bridging phase

- Prolonged bridging phase

- Phase 2 / VICZMP

6. SAPROF

7. TROPENBOS

8. SNV Collaborative Forestry Management

9. LICCP, ADB PPTA

- Preparation of ADB PPTA Project

- Loan from ADB for PPTA Project

10. IMOLA

11. HRMIM

12. Decision Support Tool

- Setup of DST

- Implementation of DST

- Usage of DST

13. Socio-Economic Development Plan

Activity

2001 2002 2003 20092000 2010 20202004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Decision Support in timeDecision Support in time

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A Decision Support System A Decision Support System (DSS) project for TT Hue(DSS) project for TT Hue

supports ICZM Strategy and Action Plansupports ICZM Strategy and Action Plan

fills the gap between VNICZM project and fills the gap between VNICZM project and its successor VICZMPits successor VICZMP

has long term scope, but interim results has long term scope, but interim results possible each year (modular architecture)possible each year (modular architecture)

gives input to socio-econ. development gives input to socio-econ. development plan 2009plan 2009

nr. 6

A DSS assists decision A DSS assists decision makers makers

Features often includeFeatures often include::• structured approachstructured approach• easy data accesseasy data access• models or model models or model

resultsresults• scenariosscenarios• effects of measures effects of measures

and policiesand policies• visualisation with visualisation with

maps and graphsmaps and graphs

Compose Compute Analyze1 2 3

What is a DSS?What is a DSS?

Natural system

Topography

Hydrology

Sediment

Ecology

Water quality

Social system

Economy

Sociology

Demography

Land use

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Why do we need a DSS?Why do we need a DSS?

• To To assistassist the decision maker in pursuing the decision maker in pursuing sustainable development of the Hue areasustainable development of the Hue area

• To better To better understandunderstand the natural and socio- the natural and socio-economic systems, their relations and driverseconomic systems, their relations and drivers

• To provide a To provide a framework for framework for cooperation between cooperation between different institutes (sharing of knowledge and data) different institutes (sharing of knowledge and data)

• To use as a basis for modernized environmental To use as a basis for modernized environmental education, training and researcheducation, training and research

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What do we require for What do we require for Decision Support?Decision Support?

• Implementation of tools for TT-Hue, within Implementation of tools for TT-Hue, within framework of ICZM Strategy and Action plans.framework of ICZM Strategy and Action plans.

• Co-operation between departments and universities.Co-operation between departments and universities.

• Centre of expertise to maintain, apply tools and Centre of expertise to maintain, apply tools and analyse results and provide adviseanalyse results and provide advise

• Training and education strategy to provide long Training and education strategy to provide long term people base to allow self sustaining decision term people base to allow self sustaining decision support (involvement of Hue University College of support (involvement of Hue University College of Science).Science).

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Who is involved in TT Hue?Who is involved in TT Hue?

TROPENBOS

IMOLA

- UNV Hue- UNV Hanoi

PPC

LAGOON PROJECT

NPC

SNV

Land and water use conflicts

Coastal erosion

Water quality / carrying capacity

FloodingP

rob

lem

Are

as

Hu

on

g R

ive

r S

ys

tem

sh

ow

ing

su

b s

ys

tem

u

nit

s a

nd

va

rio

us

ma

the

ma

tic

al

mo

de

l d

om

ain

s (

ita

lic

s)

& d

om

ina

nt

pro

ce

ss

es

- DONRE- DARD- DOFI

NEW Initiatives !!

RNE

Run-off & river discharges

Tides & river discharges

Tides & waves

Catchment

RiverLagoon

Coast

Marine

Water balance model

1D River model 2D Lagoon model Shore line model

2D or 3D Ocean model

CCP

HMS

IDRC

SAPROF

HRMIM

LICCPADB PPTA

NCAP

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DSSproject

Adapted from scheme proposed by

College of Sciences

DSS project will deliver program

support

Involvement of

third parties

Proposal for a new structure of education and Proposal for a new structure of education and research for ICZM at Huresearch for ICZM at Huéé U., C. of Sciences U., C. of Sciences

Master level education

CIDA

Coastal and marine zone governance

The Hué Institute for applied ICZM

Centre for coastal

and marinegovernance

Int. ProgramSupport +Departmental

Trainingprograms

PhD level education &

research & advise

Self sustaining people & knowledge base

PPC/HCS

Community learning

sites

Funded!

Coastal zone system functioning and human-nature interactions

Centre for coastal

advanced ecosystem

research

Trainingprograms

Application of tools for

management

RNE

Proposed

CAERE project proposal written in 2004 by T.T.

Phap and de VriesMulti faculty

inter university

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What does a DSS look like?What does a DSS look like?

Examples:Examples:

• Expert DSS for coastal Andhra Pradesh Expert DSS for coastal Andhra Pradesh (India) (India) flood vulnerabilityflood vulnerability

• Computational Tool Catchment2Coast Computational Tool Catchment2Coast (Mozambique) (Mozambique) river, mangrove, shrimpriver, mangrove, shrimp

• Environment Explorer (The Netherlands)Environment Explorer (The Netherlands) landuse and environmental qualitylanduse and environmental quality

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Land distribution: forests, plantations and pastures

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

plantations mangrove fodder sylvipasture pastures & grazingland

ha

Baseline 2001

Autonomous development 2020

Rice Bowl 2020

Max. land development 2020

Environmentally sound dev. 2020

Effect of aquaculture on electricity shortage

R2 = 0.3579

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000Aquaculture ponds area (ha)

Ele

ctri

city

de

fici

t

Expert DSS Integrated Coastal Zone ManagementExpert DSS Integrated Coastal Zone Management Andhra PradeshAndhra Pradesh

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Focus on maintaining of good ecosystem status

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Environmental Explorer Environmental Explorer (the Netherlands)(the Netherlands)

Focus on coupling socio-economic development with land use and quality of resources

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Hydrodynamic model, storm Hydrodynamic model, storm surge and lagoon circulation surge and lagoon circulation

Video Clip

Coastal model includes Lang Co

Many rivers are modelled

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Plan for 2007/8Plan for 2007/8

• Kick-off workshopKick-off workshop• 1: over-all design1: over-all design• 2: Lagoon Circulation and Storm Surge Model*2: Lagoon Circulation and Storm Surge Model*• 3: Lagoon Water Quality model*3: Lagoon Water Quality model*• 4: Carrying Capacity Model*4: Carrying Capacity Model*• 5: Climate Change Scenarios 5: Climate Change Scenarios • 6: Integration / DSS Development6: Integration / DSS Development• Progress WorkshopsProgress Workshops• Setup and start of training and educational program Setup and start of training and educational program

with C. of Sciences & Departmentswith C. of Sciences & Departments

* available at VNICZM project* available at VNICZM project

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Tentitative plan 2007 and Tentitative plan 2007 and beyondbeyond

• 7: The Catchment Model 7: The Catchment Model

• 8: The Flooding Model8: The Flooding Model

• 9: The Land Use Model9: The Land Use Model

• 10: The Socio-economic Model10: The Socio-economic Model

• Institutionalisation of training, education and Institutionalisation of training, education and start of research programs start of research programs

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How to proceed?How to proceed?

DSS-projectDSS-project

• Minutes of this meeting to RNEMinutes of this meeting to RNE

• Finalisation Terms of Reference DSS by RNEFinalisation Terms of Reference DSS by RNE

CAERE-centreCAERE-centre

• Contact between PPC and C. of SciencesContact between PPC and C. of Sciences

• Joint letter to Embassy for C. of Sciences Joint letter to Embassy for C. of Sciences project based on existing CAERE proposalproject based on existing CAERE proposal