nourishing plants and people maene presentation 19 november 10

Fertilizers and agriculture:Fertilizers and agriculture:meeting the challenges sustainablymeeting the challenges sustainably

Luc M. Maene, Director General, IFA

POLICY SEMINARWashington D.C., USA, 19 November 2010

Nature of food crisesNature of food crises

Shortfall in aggregate food production/suppliesWidespread lack of accessSevere localized food insecuritySevere localized food insecurity

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAO, 2009

World population growthWorld population growth(billion people)(billion people)(billion people)(billion people)

Developed countriesUndernourishment in the

world (million people)10

8

Developing countries world (million people)

6

4

2

0

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

Source: UN

Source: FAO

Changes in food consumption patternsChanges in food consumption patternsdue to income growthdue to income growthdue to income growthdue to income growth

OECD production non-OECD production

60

p pnon-OECD consumptionOECD consumption World production

% change 2018

504030

2018 compared to

2006-2008 average

302010

0-10 Wheat Coarse

grainsRice Oilseeds Oilmeals Vegetable

oilsSugar

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Adapted from OECD-FAO (2009)

g oils

Renewable energy developmentRenewable energy developmentWorld biofuel productionWorld biofuel productionWorld biofuel productionWorld biofuel production

Billion litres

120140160 Ethanol production Biodiesel production

80100120

204060

0

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: OECD-FAO

World cereal production and area by regionWorld cereal production and area by region20092009pp20092009pp

PRODUCTION (million tonnes)AREA (million hectares)

Europe

46573122

334

( )

N. America 468465

1192Asia

73 334

C. & S. America163 16049

109

Africa 20Oceania

36

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAPSTATS 2010

Population trends and nitrogen usePopulation trends and nitrogen useduring the 20during the 20thth centurycenturyduring the 20during the 20 centurycentury

% world populationfed by Haber-Bosch nitrogen

World populationno Haber-Bosch nitrogen

600050 AveM

Average fertilizer inputfed by Haber Bosch nitrogenMeat production

no Haber Bosch nitrogen

on (m

illion

s)

6000

4000

5000 40

30

% W

orragefertilizeeatproducti

rld po

pulat

io 4000

3000

2000

30

20

rld populationerinput (kg Non (kg perso

World population

Wo 2000

1000

0

10

0

nN ha -1yr -1)on -1yr -1)


1900 1950| Adapted from Erisman, et al. 2008

20000 0

World cereal production and fertilizer useWorld cereal production and fertilizer use19611961--2010 2010 (f)(f)19611961--2010 2010 (f)(f)

Million tonnes

2000

2500 Cereal production Fertilizer consumption

1000

1500

500

1000

0

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: FAOSTAT and IFADATA

World fertilizer consumption trendsWorld fertilizer consumption trends

180Developing EconomiesMt nutrients

140160

p gTransition EconomiesDeveloped Economies

80100120

406080

020

---------------------------------------1961 to 2008 -------------------------------------


1961 to 2008

| Source: IFA

Total fertilizer use by cropTotal fertilizer use by cropat the global level in 2006/07 (%)at the global level in 2006/07 (%)at the global level in 2006/07 (%)at the global level in 2006/07 (%)

Fruits & veg.

Other crops, 15Mai e

17

Oil palm, 1S b 3

Maize16

Soybean, 3Sugar crops, 4

Cotton 4Wheat 15Cotton, 4

Other OS, 5Other CG 5

15


Other CG, 5Rice

| Source: IFA Agriculture

Total fertilizer use by cropTotal fertilizer use by cropfor the main countries in 2007/08for the main countries in 2007/08for the main countries in 2007/08for the main countries in 2007/08

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IFA Agriculture

Fertilizer application to biofuel cropsFertilizer application to biofuel crops2008/092008/092008/092008/09

33.0% of total N

nts EU: rapeseed for biodieselOthers

Impact of 2

nes n

utrie

USA: maize for ethanolBrazil: cane for ethanol Impact of

cellulosic ethanol on K d d ?

1

Millio

n ton

n

2.5%4.8% demand ?

What about transition to

0

M

N P O K O

transition to algae as feedstock ?


N P2O5 K2O

Agriculture is being squeezedAgriculture is being squeezed

Conserving biodiversity

Environ-mental

concernsClimate change

Ri i Population Limited Rising incomes,

diet di ifi i

Population growth

Limited available

arablelanddiversification land


A moving targetA moving target

WATER

MULTIPLYING

DEMANDS ON

AGRICULTURE

CHANGING

CONDITIONS FOR

AGRICULTURE

LAND USE

• Growing scarcity, changing distribution,

• New cropping patterns, declining soil pools of

• Changing weather patterns (climate change),

• Urbanization (often on fertile land), distribution,

contamination, salinization…

soil pools of nutrients, new recycling loops in nutrient cycles…

(climate change), soil degradation, rural depopulation…

land), deforestation, reforestation, wetlands y p pdisappearing…


Limited immediate availabilityLimited immediate availabilityof additional arable landof additional arable landof additional arable landof additional arable land

Arable area World populationm2 per person in billion

99.53000

7 588.59

2600

2800

6.577.5

2200

2400

5.56

2000

2200

1996 2015 2030

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably| Source: Lammel (2007),

citing FAO: Towards 2015/30 (2002)

Areas of physical and economic water scarcityAreas of physical and economic water scarcity

ON AVERAGE

• 1,000 litres of water are needed to produce a kgof maize

ON AVERAGE

of maize• 1,500 litres to produce a kg

of wheat2 500 litres for a kg of rice• 2,500 litres for a kg of rice• 4,000 litres for a kg of poultry• 15,000 litres for a kg of beef

Little or no water scarcityPhysical water scarcity

• 3,000 litres per person to produce our daily food intake

Approaching physical water scarcityy y

Economic water scarcityNot estimated

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: IWMI

Yield gaps and relative land availabilityYield gaps and relative land availabilityin different countriesin different countriesin different countriesin different countries

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: World Bank Report, 2010

Nitrogen use efficiencyNitrogen use efficiency

243E t A i

Fertilizer consumption by region, 2007/08 (Kg/ha) Kg grain / kg N applied

151178

243

North AmericaWest Europe

East AsiaUSA

125125130

Central EuropeSouth Asia

Latin America

CHINA

4178

118

South AfricaNorth Africa

WORLDp

617

41

Sub-Saharan AfrAfrica

South Africa

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: (left) IFDC,(right) modified from Bruulsema and Snyder, 2009

Efficiency: a winEfficiency: a win--winwin--win situationwin situation

Farmers face relatively high input costs and low Farmers face relatively high input costs and low crop prices = excessive fertilizer use means wasting money

Industry has higher needs for energy and raw materials = higher costs

Nutrient losses have environmentaland human health impacts that areexpensive to mitigateexpensive to mitigate


Opportunites in ‘mature’Opportunites in ‘mature’and ‘developing’ agricultural sectorsand ‘developing’ agricultural sectorsand developing agricultural sectorsand developing agricultural sectors

l Industry to be engaged in the development of:

less fertilizer per unit

educational programmes targeting farmers on the useof the most efficient technologies, IPNM, SSNM, balanced fertilization the “4R” concept among others per unit

outputbalanced fertilization, the 4R concept, among others

best agricultural practices including fertilizer best management practices (e.g. through computer-based

b tt decision support systems, tools facilitating the adoption of SSNM practices, tools for deep placement of urea granules, fertigation)

better services

g g )

Better performing products such as slow- and controlled-release fertilizers showing a smallerprice differential with conventional fertilizers

higher profits


price-differential with conventional fertilizers

Opportunites in ‘stagnating’ agricultural sectorsOpportunites in ‘stagnating’ agricultural sectors

In countries where not enough fertilizer is used,

raise the awareness of the policy makers so that

the industry should:

they create urgently the necessary enabling environment to mitigate soil fertility degradation

l ti t il d t th ifi d f propose solutions tailored to the specific needs of the subsistence farmers in these areas (e.g. small-size fertilizer bags).

new marketsg )

new marketsFertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably

new markets new markets

Industry initiativesIndustry initiativesyy

Africa forum F i Fi t Farming First Fertilizer use and human health

Eff ti l t il d li Effective last-mile delivery Protect&Sustain

The global fertilizer industry’s product The global fertilizer industry s product stewardship initiative

Task force on climate change Water management initiative


Beyond the factory gate…Beyond the factory gate…

Greater investment in agriculture

More effective development aid

Reform in trade and domestic policies


A BETTER MORE SECURE FUTUREA BETTER, MORE SECURE FUTURE…

…a new, efficient, dynamic and competitive pagricultural sectorwill unlock hope pfor millions of children!children!

Fertilizers and agriculture: meeting the challenges sustainably | Source: Bationo,2009

nourishing plants and people maene presentation 19 november 10

Education