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Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Q3 2016 Presentation 20 October 2016

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Page 1: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Norwegian Air Shuttle ASAQ3 2016 Presentation 20 October 2016

Page 2: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Highlights Q3 2016

Awarded Europe’s Leading Low-Cost Airline 2016, by the World Travel Awards for the second year running

Start-up of low-cost long haul between US and Paris. Announced new long haul routes between US and Barcelona for summer 2017

Added 14 new 737-800 aircraft and three 787-9 Dreamliners in 2016

Four new 737-800 and one 787-9 in Q3

Load up to 91 % (90 %) stimulated by price

Clean EBITDA of NOK 2.3 billion (1.7 billion)

2Picture: Roald Dahl, the first British tail fin hero

Page 3: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

8.6 million passengers in Q3 2016 (+12 %)

3Pax (mill) 2,0 2,6 3,1 3,8 4,6 5,2 6,0 7,1 7,7 8,6

0

1

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3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16

Pass

enge

rs (m

illio

n)

+ 12 %

Page 4: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Q3 load factor up to 91 % (+0.6 pp.)

4

ASK 2 333 3 590 3 979 5 331 6 480 7 780 10 223 13 905 14 143 16 486

Load Factor 86,1 % 81,8 % 82,2 % 80,5 % 84,4 % 82,6 % 81,4 % 84,6 % 90,7 % 91,3 %

86,1 %81,8 % 82,2 % 80,5 %

84,4 % 82,6 % 81,4 %84,6 %

90,7 % 91,3 %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 000

10 00011 00012 00013 00014 00015 00016 00017 00018 00019 00020 000

Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16

Load

Fact

or

Avai

labl

e Se

at K

M (A

SK)

ASK Load Factor Load+0.6 p.p.

16.6 % growth in capacity (ASK)

17.3 % growth in traffic (RPK)

Average flying distance increased by 4 %

Page 5: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Building presence in Spain and UK

5

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

Oslo Arlanda Copenhagen Helsinki Gatwick Spanish bases

Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16

+ 740,000 pax 41 % mkt share

+ 405,000 pax21 % mkt share

+ 412,000 pax17 % mkt share

+ 160,000 pax13 % mkt share

+ 533,000 pax10 % mkt share

+ 1,275,000 pax4 % mkt share

Mkt:25 mill

Mkt:27 mill

Mkt:142 mill

Mkt:42 mill

Mkt:17 mill

Mkt:29 mill

Source: 12 month rolling passengers as reported by Avinor, Swedavia, Copenhagen Airports, Finavia, Gatwick Airport, Aena

Page 6: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Number of passengers booked in Spain increased to almost 1.2 million in Q3, an increase of more than 400,000Approaching 50 % share of passengers outside Scandinavia

Growth in number of passengers (%): Split passengers by origin:

Over 1 million passengers in Spain

6

Norway

Spain

Sweden

Denmark

UK

Finland

USA

France

Germany

ItalyPoland

Hungary Other

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Poland

Finland

Denmark

Sweden

Italy

France

UK

Hungary

USA

Spain

Page 7: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

15 % revenue growth in Q3

7

Revenues 4 878 6 338 7 277 8 360Domestic revenue 1 072 1 186 1 187 1 433% y.o.y. chg 0 % 11 % 0 % 21 %International revenue 3 806 5 152 6 090 6 928% y.o.y. chg 21 % 35 % 18 % 14 %

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16

NO

K m

illio

n

Domestic revenue

International revenue

Total Revenues

+ 15 %

Unit revenue RASK reduced by 3 % on higher load, no net currency impact

4 % lower yield due to mix and increased sector length

Growth in domestic revenue mainly related to Spain and Sweden

Page 8: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

23 % growth in total ancillary revenue in Q3

8

14 % share of Group revenue

Per passenger sales increased by 10 % to NOK 139

Ancillary (NOK) short haul vs long haul: Split by category:

109

473

116

492

Short Haul Long Haul

Q3 15

Q3 16

Other Ancillary Other Ancillary

Baggage Baggage

Seating Seating

Pre-sold packages(bundle)

Pre-sold packages (bundle)

Flexibility/ modifications

Flexibility/ modifications

Q3 15 Q3 16

139

Optional extras

126

Page 9: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Currently operating 40 long haul routes

9

First Trans-Atlantic flight to Paris in July

Page 10: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Over 50 long haul routes in 2017

10

New routes in 2017 to/from USA-Barcelona and Copenhagen-San FransiscoMore new routes to be announcedAdding frequency to existing routes

Page 11: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Scaling up the wide body fleet to 32 by 2018

11

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Aircraft 3 7 8 12 21 32Seats 873 2 037 2 328 3 704 6 800 10 584

Deliveries 787-8(291 seats)

Deliveries 787-9(344 seats)

Widebody aircraft (delivered and firm orders)

Page 12: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Top modern fleet with an average age of 3.6 years

12

8 58 11 1320

22 2323 22

115 5

2

2 55 5

55 5

5

7 16 21

2325 29

2927 23 19 15

28

1014

14

1314

1414

2

7 15 23

30 4151

6784

86

6 16

2

5 5

9

14

20

1

2 3

3

7

12

8 11 1322

3240

46

5762

68

86

96 99

116

144

163

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2003year-end

2004year-end

2005year-end

2006year-end

2007year-end

2008year-end

2009year-end

2010year-end

2011year-end

2012year-end

2013year-end

2014year-end

2015year-end

2016year-end

2017year-end

2018year-end

B788/B789 owned

B788/B789 leased

B737 MAX 8 owned

B738 owned

B738 S&LB

B738 leased

B733 owned

B733 leased

M80 leased

Re-deliveries 737-800-744 seats

2016:Deliveries 737-800

+3,162 seatsDeliveries 787-9

+1376 seats

Page 13: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Unit cost comparison based on the latest full-year results (in NOK)

13

Sources: Based on official full-year 2015 annual report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, Finnair, Vueling, SAS Group (31.10.2015), Easyjet (30.09.2015), and full-year 2015 report for Ryanair and WizzAir (31.03.2016). Eurowings figures are from the “Eurowings Management Presentation” 10.06.2016.

• Cost per available seat kilometer is an industry-wide cost level indicator often referred to as “CASK”. Usually represented as operating expenses before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA level) over produced seat kilometers (ASK). • Foreign exchange rates used are equivalent to the daily average rates corresponding to the reporting periods and as stated by the Central Bank of Norway• Note: For some carriers the available financial data represents Group level data which may include cost items from activities that are unrelated to airline operations.• Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses).

*Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items.

0,27 0,29

0,42

0,51 0,54

0,60

0,67

0,77

0,82

-

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

Ope

ratin

g co

st E

BITD

A le

vel p

er A

SK (C

ASK)

Page 14: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Financials

14

Page 15: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

EBT improved to NOK 1.3 billion in Q3

15

Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16EBITDAR margin 24 % 19 % 28 % 31 % EBT margin 12 % 8 % 15 % 15 %

1 1691 217

2 046

2 573

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

NO

K m

illio

n

604

505

1 098

1 270

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

NO

K m

illio

n

EBT development Q3EBITDAR development Q3

(NOK million) Q3 15 Q3 16 Change

Revenue 7 277 8 360

EBITDAR 2 046 2 573 528

EBITDA 1 484 1 725 241

Pre-tax profit (EBT) 1 098 1 270 172

Net profit 833 992

Page 16: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Underlying EBITDA* increased to NOK 2.3 bn

16* Underlying (clean) EBITDA adj. for other losses/gains and non-recurring items

NOK million Q3 2015 Q3 2016 chg

Revenue 7 277 8 360 1 083 EBITDA as reported 1 484 1 725 241 Other losses/gains -62 -207 -146 EBITDA excl other losses/gains 1 546 1 933 387

Non-recurring items: - additional expense enigne overhaul -22 - passenger compensation and refunds -65 -111 - wetlease -34 -275 Sum non-recurring items -121 -386

Clean EBITDA 1 667 2 318 651 Margin clean EBITDA 22,9 % 27,7 %

Page 17: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Unit cost cut by 4 % to NOK 0.39

Unit cost adj. for currency -5 %

Unit cost excl. fuel of NOK 0.30 (flat). Down 1 % adj. for currency

17

0,37 0,290,32

0,290,27 0,28 0,27 0,26

0,30 0,30

0,13

0,19 0.15

0,11 0,14 0,14

0,13 0,14 0,11 0,09

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16

Ope

ratin

g co

st E

BITD

A le

vel p

er A

SK (C

ASK)

CASK excl fuel

Fuel share of CASK

Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses).*Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items.

Page 18: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Full impact of lower fuel cost, fuel unit cost -15 %

Stable personnel cost at 15 %

Fuel cost share reduced to 22 %

Status on fuel hedging:50 % of 2016 at USD 525 38 % of 2017 at USD 500

18

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16

12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling

Personnel

Other

Technical

Airport/ATC

Leasing

Depreciation

Sales & Distribution

Handling

Fuel

Fuel22 %

Personnel15 %

Airport & ATC14 %

Handling12 %

Leasing13 %

Technical7 %

Gen. and adm. exp.

5 %

Other Flight ops. exp.

4 %

Depr.4 %

Sales/ distrib.

2 %

Page 19: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

NOK 2.8bn cash-flow from operations first 9M

19

Invested NOK 5.4 bn in new aircraft of which NOK 3.1 bn financed by own cash

NOK 2.2 billion in cash at the end of Q3

Q3 Q3 9M 9MNOK million 2015 2016 Chg 2015 2016 Chg

Profit before tax 1 098 1 270 172 778 1 209 431Paid taxes -48 -29 19 -44 -29 16Depreciation 302 352 50 767 958 191Change air traffic settlement liabilities -1 404 -2 140 -736 1 235 1 097 -138Change working capital 377 157 -220 -101 -394 -293Net cash flows from operating activities 324 -390 -714 2 634 2 841 207Net cash flows from investing activities -1 844 -1 748 95 -4 532 -5 401 -868Net cash flows from financial activities 781 1 323 541 2 201 2 322 121

Net change in cash and cash equivalents -749 -777 -29 285 -221 -506

Cash and cash equivalents, end of period 2 297 2 233 -63 2 297 2 233 -63

Page 20: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Strengthened equity in spite of adding 15 on-balance aircraft

20

Added 15 new 737-800 on balance the last 12 months + PDP’s

NOK 18.7 bn net debt

10 % equity ratio (16 % incl. mv of Bank Norwegian)

2 297Cash2 233

2 663Receivables

3 405

1 854 Other assets

2 110

5 264

Aircraft PDP 6 583

17 902

Aircraft20 573

0

3 000

6 000

9 000

12 000

15 000

18 000

21 000

24 000

27 000

30 000

33 000

36 000

Q3 15 Q3 16

NO

K m

illio

n

Equity3 587 3 185

Pre-sold tickets5 111 4 200

Otherliabilities

5 284 4 821

PDP and bonds4 777

3 564

Aircraft Financing

16 145

14 209

Q3 16 Q3 15

Page 21: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Financing on-track

Expected capex (all aircraft incl. PDP)USD 1.0 bn for 2016USD 2.1 bn for 2017

PDP financing / liquidityTapped unsecured bonds (NOK 965 million)New PDP financing with backstop lease for five 737-800PDP Financing for 50 A320 Neo in place

Long-term financingEETC financing of ten 737-800 aircraftCommercial financing of six 737-800 aircraftSale leaseback (SLB)Ex-Im and ECA

21

Page 22: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Outlook for 2016

Markets and business Soft macro and passenger tax introduced in NorwayMonitoring demand in the UK post Brexit, limited changes to bookingsBookings volumes on par with last year, capacity adjustedNegative impact on RASK by mix and distance. Use lower price to stimulate volume

An estimated production growth (ASK) of 18 % (unchanged)Short haul +12 %, long haul +40 %Increasing distance driven by mix (long-haul)

Unit cost in the area of NOK 0.38 (unchanged)Including impact of wetlease and cancellationsAssumptions: Fuel price of USD 350 per metric ton, USD/NOK 8.25, EUR/NOK 9.00

23 new aircraft in 2016 (unchanged)Seventeen 737-800Four leased 787-9 DreamlinersTwo A320 Neo (to be leased out to HK Express) 22

Page 23: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Outlook for 2017

An estimated production growth (ASK) of 30 %Narrow body + 20 %, wide body + 60 %737 Max representing 5 p.p. of the growth for narrow bodyIncreasing distance driven by mix (long-haul)

Unit cost target of NOK 0.38 to 0.39Assumptions: Fuel price of USD 500 per metric ton, USD/NOK 8.25, EUR/NOK 9.00 NOK 0.02 related to change in fuel assumption (NOK 0.36 - 0.37 with same assumptions as 2016)Based on the current route portfolio and planned production

32 new aircraft entering operations in 2017Seventeen 737-800 (returning four old leased aircraft)Six 737 MaxNine 787-9 Dreamliners (incl. four leased)

8 A320 Neo (of which 6 leased out to HK Express)23

Page 24: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Summary

Strongest result in the company’s history

Maintaining a strong and stable load factor

Ramping up long haul. Launched new long haul routes between USA and Barcelona

Launch of the 737 Max in 2017

Completed tap of bonds above par

24

Page 25: Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA€¦ · Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16. Available Seat KM (ASK) Load Factor. ASK Load Factor. Load +0.6 p.p. 16.6 % growth in

Norwegian operates 460 routes to 130 destinations

25

From bases in

SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND

From the

UK base

From bases in

SPAIN

Long Haul

From bases in

NORWAY