norwegian air shuttle asa€¦ · q3 07 q3 08 q3 09 q3 10 q3 11 q3 12 q3 13 q3 14 q3 15 q3 16....
TRANSCRIPT
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASAQ3 2016 Presentation 20 October 2016
Highlights Q3 2016
Awarded Europe’s Leading Low-Cost Airline 2016, by the World Travel Awards for the second year running
Start-up of low-cost long haul between US and Paris. Announced new long haul routes between US and Barcelona for summer 2017
Added 14 new 737-800 aircraft and three 787-9 Dreamliners in 2016
Four new 737-800 and one 787-9 in Q3
Load up to 91 % (90 %) stimulated by price
Clean EBITDA of NOK 2.3 billion (1.7 billion)
2Picture: Roald Dahl, the first British tail fin hero
8.6 million passengers in Q3 2016 (+12 %)
3Pax (mill) 2,0 2,6 3,1 3,8 4,6 5,2 6,0 7,1 7,7 8,6
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Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16
Pass
enge
rs (m
illio
n)
+ 12 %
Q3 load factor up to 91 % (+0.6 pp.)
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ASK 2 333 3 590 3 979 5 331 6 480 7 780 10 223 13 905 14 143 16 486
Load Factor 86,1 % 81,8 % 82,2 % 80,5 % 84,4 % 82,6 % 81,4 % 84,6 % 90,7 % 91,3 %
86,1 %81,8 % 82,2 % 80,5 %
84,4 % 82,6 % 81,4 %84,6 %
90,7 % 91,3 %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 000
10 00011 00012 00013 00014 00015 00016 00017 00018 00019 00020 000
Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16
Load
Fact
or
Avai
labl
e Se
at K
M (A
SK)
ASK Load Factor Load+0.6 p.p.
16.6 % growth in capacity (ASK)
17.3 % growth in traffic (RPK)
Average flying distance increased by 4 %
Building presence in Spain and UK
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0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
Oslo Arlanda Copenhagen Helsinki Gatwick Spanish bases
Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16
+ 740,000 pax 41 % mkt share
+ 405,000 pax21 % mkt share
+ 412,000 pax17 % mkt share
+ 160,000 pax13 % mkt share
+ 533,000 pax10 % mkt share
+ 1,275,000 pax4 % mkt share
Mkt:25 mill
Mkt:27 mill
Mkt:142 mill
Mkt:42 mill
Mkt:17 mill
Mkt:29 mill
Source: 12 month rolling passengers as reported by Avinor, Swedavia, Copenhagen Airports, Finavia, Gatwick Airport, Aena
Number of passengers booked in Spain increased to almost 1.2 million in Q3, an increase of more than 400,000Approaching 50 % share of passengers outside Scandinavia
Growth in number of passengers (%): Split passengers by origin:
Over 1 million passengers in Spain
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Norway
Spain
Sweden
Denmark
UK
Finland
USA
France
Germany
ItalyPoland
Hungary Other
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Poland
Finland
Denmark
Sweden
Italy
France
UK
Hungary
USA
Spain
15 % revenue growth in Q3
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Revenues 4 878 6 338 7 277 8 360Domestic revenue 1 072 1 186 1 187 1 433% y.o.y. chg 0 % 11 % 0 % 21 %International revenue 3 806 5 152 6 090 6 928% y.o.y. chg 21 % 35 % 18 % 14 %
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16
NO
K m
illio
n
Domestic revenue
International revenue
Total Revenues
+ 15 %
Unit revenue RASK reduced by 3 % on higher load, no net currency impact
4 % lower yield due to mix and increased sector length
Growth in domestic revenue mainly related to Spain and Sweden
23 % growth in total ancillary revenue in Q3
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14 % share of Group revenue
Per passenger sales increased by 10 % to NOK 139
Ancillary (NOK) short haul vs long haul: Split by category:
109
473
116
492
Short Haul Long Haul
Q3 15
Q3 16
Other Ancillary Other Ancillary
Baggage Baggage
Seating Seating
Pre-sold packages(bundle)
Pre-sold packages (bundle)
Flexibility/ modifications
Flexibility/ modifications
Q3 15 Q3 16
139
Optional extras
126
Currently operating 40 long haul routes
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First Trans-Atlantic flight to Paris in July
Over 50 long haul routes in 2017
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New routes in 2017 to/from USA-Barcelona and Copenhagen-San FransiscoMore new routes to be announcedAdding frequency to existing routes
Scaling up the wide body fleet to 32 by 2018
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Aircraft 3 7 8 12 21 32Seats 873 2 037 2 328 3 704 6 800 10 584
Deliveries 787-8(291 seats)
Deliveries 787-9(344 seats)
Widebody aircraft (delivered and firm orders)
Top modern fleet with an average age of 3.6 years
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8 58 11 1320
22 2323 22
115 5
2
2 55 5
55 5
5
7 16 21
2325 29
2927 23 19 15
28
1014
14
1314
1414
2
7 15 23
30 4151
6784
86
6 16
2
5 5
9
14
20
1
2 3
3
7
12
8 11 1322
3240
46
5762
68
86
96 99
116
144
163
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003year-end
2004year-end
2005year-end
2006year-end
2007year-end
2008year-end
2009year-end
2010year-end
2011year-end
2012year-end
2013year-end
2014year-end
2015year-end
2016year-end
2017year-end
2018year-end
B788/B789 owned
B788/B789 leased
B737 MAX 8 owned
B738 owned
B738 S&LB
B738 leased
B733 owned
B733 leased
M80 leased
Re-deliveries 737-800-744 seats
2016:Deliveries 737-800
+3,162 seatsDeliveries 787-9
+1376 seats
Unit cost comparison based on the latest full-year results (in NOK)
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Sources: Based on official full-year 2015 annual report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, Finnair, Vueling, SAS Group (31.10.2015), Easyjet (30.09.2015), and full-year 2015 report for Ryanair and WizzAir (31.03.2016). Eurowings figures are from the “Eurowings Management Presentation” 10.06.2016.
• Cost per available seat kilometer is an industry-wide cost level indicator often referred to as “CASK”. Usually represented as operating expenses before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA level) over produced seat kilometers (ASK). • Foreign exchange rates used are equivalent to the daily average rates corresponding to the reporting periods and as stated by the Central Bank of Norway• Note: For some carriers the available financial data represents Group level data which may include cost items from activities that are unrelated to airline operations.• Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses).
*Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items.
0,27 0,29
0,42
0,51 0,54
0,60
0,67
0,77
0,82
-
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
Ope
ratin
g co
st E
BITD
A le
vel p
er A
SK (C
ASK)
Financials
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EBT improved to NOK 1.3 billion in Q3
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Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16EBITDAR margin 24 % 19 % 28 % 31 % EBT margin 12 % 8 % 15 % 15 %
1 1691 217
2 046
2 573
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
NO
K m
illio
n
604
505
1 098
1 270
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
NO
K m
illio
n
EBT development Q3EBITDAR development Q3
(NOK million) Q3 15 Q3 16 Change
Revenue 7 277 8 360
EBITDAR 2 046 2 573 528
EBITDA 1 484 1 725 241
Pre-tax profit (EBT) 1 098 1 270 172
Net profit 833 992
Underlying EBITDA* increased to NOK 2.3 bn
16* Underlying (clean) EBITDA adj. for other losses/gains and non-recurring items
NOK million Q3 2015 Q3 2016 chg
Revenue 7 277 8 360 1 083 EBITDA as reported 1 484 1 725 241 Other losses/gains -62 -207 -146 EBITDA excl other losses/gains 1 546 1 933 387
Non-recurring items: - additional expense enigne overhaul -22 - passenger compensation and refunds -65 -111 - wetlease -34 -275 Sum non-recurring items -121 -386
Clean EBITDA 1 667 2 318 651 Margin clean EBITDA 22,9 % 27,7 %
Unit cost cut by 4 % to NOK 0.39
Unit cost adj. for currency -5 %
Unit cost excl. fuel of NOK 0.30 (flat). Down 1 % adj. for currency
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0,37 0,290,32
0,290,27 0,28 0,27 0,26
0,30 0,30
0,13
0,19 0.15
0,11 0,14 0,14
0,13 0,14 0,11 0,09
0,00
0,05
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0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
0,50
Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16
Ope
ratin
g co
st E
BITD
A le
vel p
er A
SK (C
ASK)
CASK excl fuel
Fuel share of CASK
Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses).*Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items.
Full impact of lower fuel cost, fuel unit cost -15 %
Stable personnel cost at 15 %
Fuel cost share reduced to 22 %
Status on fuel hedging:50 % of 2016 at USD 525 38 % of 2017 at USD 500
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0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q3 16
12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling
Personnel
Other
Technical
Airport/ATC
Leasing
Depreciation
Sales & Distribution
Handling
Fuel
Fuel22 %
Personnel15 %
Airport & ATC14 %
Handling12 %
Leasing13 %
Technical7 %
Gen. and adm. exp.
5 %
Other Flight ops. exp.
4 %
Depr.4 %
Sales/ distrib.
2 %
NOK 2.8bn cash-flow from operations first 9M
19
Invested NOK 5.4 bn in new aircraft of which NOK 3.1 bn financed by own cash
NOK 2.2 billion in cash at the end of Q3
Q3 Q3 9M 9MNOK million 2015 2016 Chg 2015 2016 Chg
Profit before tax 1 098 1 270 172 778 1 209 431Paid taxes -48 -29 19 -44 -29 16Depreciation 302 352 50 767 958 191Change air traffic settlement liabilities -1 404 -2 140 -736 1 235 1 097 -138Change working capital 377 157 -220 -101 -394 -293Net cash flows from operating activities 324 -390 -714 2 634 2 841 207Net cash flows from investing activities -1 844 -1 748 95 -4 532 -5 401 -868Net cash flows from financial activities 781 1 323 541 2 201 2 322 121
Net change in cash and cash equivalents -749 -777 -29 285 -221 -506
Cash and cash equivalents, end of period 2 297 2 233 -63 2 297 2 233 -63
Strengthened equity in spite of adding 15 on-balance aircraft
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Added 15 new 737-800 on balance the last 12 months + PDP’s
NOK 18.7 bn net debt
10 % equity ratio (16 % incl. mv of Bank Norwegian)
2 297Cash2 233
2 663Receivables
3 405
1 854 Other assets
2 110
5 264
Aircraft PDP 6 583
17 902
Aircraft20 573
0
3 000
6 000
9 000
12 000
15 000
18 000
21 000
24 000
27 000
30 000
33 000
36 000
Q3 15 Q3 16
NO
K m
illio
n
Equity3 587 3 185
Pre-sold tickets5 111 4 200
Otherliabilities
5 284 4 821
PDP and bonds4 777
3 564
Aircraft Financing
16 145
14 209
Q3 16 Q3 15
Financing on-track
Expected capex (all aircraft incl. PDP)USD 1.0 bn for 2016USD 2.1 bn for 2017
PDP financing / liquidityTapped unsecured bonds (NOK 965 million)New PDP financing with backstop lease for five 737-800PDP Financing for 50 A320 Neo in place
Long-term financingEETC financing of ten 737-800 aircraftCommercial financing of six 737-800 aircraftSale leaseback (SLB)Ex-Im and ECA
21
Outlook for 2016
Markets and business Soft macro and passenger tax introduced in NorwayMonitoring demand in the UK post Brexit, limited changes to bookingsBookings volumes on par with last year, capacity adjustedNegative impact on RASK by mix and distance. Use lower price to stimulate volume
An estimated production growth (ASK) of 18 % (unchanged)Short haul +12 %, long haul +40 %Increasing distance driven by mix (long-haul)
Unit cost in the area of NOK 0.38 (unchanged)Including impact of wetlease and cancellationsAssumptions: Fuel price of USD 350 per metric ton, USD/NOK 8.25, EUR/NOK 9.00
23 new aircraft in 2016 (unchanged)Seventeen 737-800Four leased 787-9 DreamlinersTwo A320 Neo (to be leased out to HK Express) 22
Outlook for 2017
An estimated production growth (ASK) of 30 %Narrow body + 20 %, wide body + 60 %737 Max representing 5 p.p. of the growth for narrow bodyIncreasing distance driven by mix (long-haul)
Unit cost target of NOK 0.38 to 0.39Assumptions: Fuel price of USD 500 per metric ton, USD/NOK 8.25, EUR/NOK 9.00 NOK 0.02 related to change in fuel assumption (NOK 0.36 - 0.37 with same assumptions as 2016)Based on the current route portfolio and planned production
32 new aircraft entering operations in 2017Seventeen 737-800 (returning four old leased aircraft)Six 737 MaxNine 787-9 Dreamliners (incl. four leased)
8 A320 Neo (of which 6 leased out to HK Express)23
Summary
Strongest result in the company’s history
Maintaining a strong and stable load factor
Ramping up long haul. Launched new long haul routes between USA and Barcelona
Launch of the 737 Max in 2017
Completed tap of bonds above par
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Norwegian operates 460 routes to 130 destinations
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From bases in
SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND
From the
UK base
From bases in
SPAIN
Long Haul
From bases in
NORWAY