northwest regional climate hub
TRANSCRIPT
Northwest Regional Climate Hub
Bea Van Horne, DirectorUS Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Mike StrobelDirector, National Water and Climate Center
Natural Resource Conservation Service
Stuart HardegreePlant Physiologist
Agricultural Research Service
What are the Climate Hubs?Regional network that assists managers of working lands with managing for risks in a changing climate (drought, floods, changing growing seasons, wild fires, etc.)
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USDA Regional Climate Hubs will provide:
• Technical & Program Support
• Assessments and Forecasts
• Outreach and Education
“Tool Makers”Package & Develop
• Agriculture Experiment Stations• Agricultural Research Service• Forest Service R&D• NOAA RISAs• NIFA-funded Coordinated Agricultural Projects• NRCS• Climate Corporation• Others
The Weak Link
Dairy
Cattle/Calf
Grains Oilseeds Legumes
Veges potatoes melons
Fruits Nuts
Berries
NW Major Agricultural Products
Milk Production
Climate Risk Effect Adaptation Tools
+ heat stress
- fertilityGenetic selection for more heat tolerant breeds of livestock
Breed information
+ infectionsProvide heat abatement strategies for animals (e.g. shade structures)
Cost/benefit information, given climate projections
- growthChange timing of livestock rotation to reduce erosion and exposure to solar radiant energy.
Seasonal temperatureprojections
- milk production
Conduct selective breeding of plants Seed availability information
- snowpack- summer rainfall
- soil moisture Reduce soil erosion using accepted practices. NRCS information
+ erosionWork with municipalities to maintain consistent supplies of energy and water
water availability and demand projections
+ coverage of woody conifers
Irrigate pastures; reduce animals/acreSeasonal heat and rainfall projections
+ temperatures
- forage productivity
Change timing of livestock rotationSeasonal forage condition projections
-nutritional value of forage
Change forage management Forage nutritional information
Climate Risk Effect Adaptation Tools
- summer rainfall+ temperatures
- nutritional value of forage+ invasive weeds+ coverage of woody conifers
• Changes in timing and spatial distribution of grazing
• Changes in livestock breeds
• Shifts in grazing areas
• Seasonal rainfall projections
• Information about breeds
Cattle and calf production
Climate Risk Effect Adaptation Toolschanges in timing and amount of precipitation
Advanced growing degree days
• Changes in timing of farm operations
• Changes in varieties and crop systems
Cost/benefit analysis of alternatives,given climate projections
- water availability for irrigated farming operations
+ CO2 concentrations - water demands
heat stress- grain filling+ water demands
Grains, oilseed, dried beans, dried peas
Climate Risk Effects Adaptation Tools
+ heat and drought stressadvanced bud break+ water demands+ pests
change vine and tree varieties+ irrigation
Cost/benefit analysis of croppingsystems, given climate projections and varieties available
+ winter rainfall + fungal pathogens + spraying especially grape, cherry and apple-cold temperature and chilling
- fruit productiondelayed bud break
change vine and tree varieties- water availability for irrigation
-fruit production
+ CO2 concentrations + yields
Fruits, tree nuts and berries
Climate Risk Effects Adaptation Tools
- snowpack- availability of irrigation water
change cropping systems
Cost/benefit analysis of cropping systems, given climate projections and varieties available
earlier rainfall + water demand + irrigationSeasonal rainfall projections
+ temperature+ water demand + irrigation
Seasonal temperature projections
- potato yield develop and use later-maturing varieties (delayed leaf senescence)
Information on potato varieties+ CO2 + potato yield
Vegetables, melons, potatoes and sweet potatoes
AgBizLogic
Farm data• Acres• Yield• Crop
systems• Expenses
Options• Alternative
cropping systems
• Marketing• Irrigation
Site-specific climate projections
Evaluation of Options
Yields
5/21/2015
Needs include
• Better forecasting of seasonal climate
• Better forecasting of local conditions
• Better alert systems
A Loose Confederation of Climate Projects in the Northwest
AgWeatherNetBig WoodLong Term Agricultural Research SitesDataBasinNorthwest Knowledge NetworkWillalmette Water 2100REACCH
WWETACClimate Friendly FarmingDecisions support Tools for FruitAgBizLogicAnimal AgricultureKlamath Basin Decision Support
Hub Alchemy
Farmers, ranchers, and private forest owners are more successful at adaptation and mitigation
Research scientists
Extension specialists
Strategy
What is the Hub doing now?
• Convening research and extension for proposal development in range, forestry, and cropping systems.
• Stakeholder engagement team is assessing existing educational programs and tools to develop “tool kits” for extension.
• Supporting expansion of historical and forecasted climate information.
What is the Hub doing now?
• Funding development of a climate module for AgBizLogic decision software for farmers.
• Developing a collaboration around incised streams problem for ranchers that includes NW Climate Science Center Great Basin Landscape Conservation
Cooperative Desert Research Institute Pacific Northwest Research Station (USFS) USGS Pacific Science Center