north dakota shifting demographics: challenges and opportunities dr. richard rathge professor and...

Dr. Richard RathgeProfessor and Director

North Dakota State Data Center

Fall Professional Development Conference

North Dakota Long Term Care Association

Bismarck, ND

Sept. 30, 2011

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

1. To present an overview of historical shifts in population dynamics in North Dakota.

2. To examine recent shifts in elderly population.

3. To discuss future challenges for long term care in North Dakota.

2NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :

http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

3

North Dakota’s population peaked in 1930 at 680,845.

The 2010 Census for North Dakota totaled 672,591, an increase of 30,391 persons from 2000.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and the Population


4

North Dakota Cass County

McIntosh County

40 similar counties

4 similar counties




Percent Change in Population, 2000 to 2010

6


NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc 7

Note: Based on 357 incorporated citiesSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010

Note: Between 2000and 2010, 83 of 357incorporatedplaces grew (23%)


Population Change: 2002 to 2003

Dunn

Ward

Cass

McKenzie

McLean

Grant

Stark Morton

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

BarnesKidder

Slope

McHenry

Sioux

Walsh

Divide

Burleigh

Mountrail

Burke

Benson

Emmons

Pierce

Bottineau Cavalier

Traill

Dickey

Ramsey

Richland

Billings

Logan

Mercer

Adams

Nelson

TownerRolette

Bowman

Eddy

LaMoure

Pembina

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Renville

Sheridan

Grand Forks

SargentMcIntosh

Ransom

Foster Griggs

Golden Valley

LossNo ChangeGain


Population Change: 2008 to 2009

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

Loss or No ChangeIncrease: 0.1% to 1.1%Increase: 1.2% to 3.6%


Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

RichlandLogan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

SteeleSheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

Decrease: 15.0% to 22.7%Decrease: 0.1% to 14.9%Increase: 0.1% to 4.9%Increase: 5.0% to 21.6%

Percent Change in Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses

North Dakota = 4.7% Increase

Only 11 of 53 countiesgained populationbetween 2000 - 2010


1. Shifting concentration of seniors

2. Changes in household composition

3. Economic impacts from the recession & oil energy development

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1970


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2000


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections 2008


Mark Crossler , Extension Marketing Leader at Oregon State University designed the following illustrations

16NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-

8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

0-20

21-3536-55

56-70

71-85

86 +



82.83 million60.25 million

58.86 million

and 27% larger thanMillennials



79.39 million

87.59 million




Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2000

North Dakota = 14.7%

5.6% to 14.9%15.0% to 21.9%22.0% to 27.9%28.0% to 34.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2000

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

Morton

Stark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley




Less than 15%15.0% to 21.9%22.0% to 27.9%28.0% or more

Source: NDSDC, 2020 Population Projections produced in 2002Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2020

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

Morton

Stark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley



Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

Morton

Stark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010

5.6% to 14.9%15.0% to 21.9%22.0% to 27.9%28.0% to 34.2%


25

Young Adults Ages 25 to 34

Dunn

Ward

Cass

McKenzieMcLean

Grant

Stark

Morton

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

BarnesKidder

Slope

McHenry

Sioux

Walsh

Divide

Burleigh

Mountrail

Burke

Benson

Emmons

Pierce

Bottineau Cavalier

Traill

Dickey

Ramsey

Richland

Billings

Logan

Mercer

Adams

Towner

Nelson

Rolette

Bowman

Eddy

LaMoure

Pembina

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Renville

Sheridan

Grand Forks

SargentMcIntosh

Ransom

Foster Griggs

GoldenValley

Percent Change in the Population of Persons Ages 25 to 34 in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census

Decrease: -16.5% to -36.5%Decrease: -0.1% to -16.4%No Change or Increase: 0% to 42.4%Increase: 42.5% to 69.9%

North Dakota = 17.7% increase



North Dakota = 13.2% increaseDecrease: -10.5% to -26.6%Decrease: -0.1% to -10.4%Increase: 0.1% to 19.9%Increase: 20.0% to 42.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 CensusPercent Change in the Population of Persons Ages 0 to 4 in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley


Source: U.S. Census Bureau

North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone:

(701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc 30

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

Morton

Stark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Bill ings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

North Dakota = 31.5%17.4% to 24.9%25.0% to 29.9%30.0% to 34.9%35.0% to 39.4%

Percent of All Householders that Live Alone in North Dakota by County: 2010 CensusSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic Profile



Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic ProfileOf Householders Living Alone, Percent Under Age 65 in North Dakota by County: 2010


Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

Morton

Stark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Bill ings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley



Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

Morton

Stark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Bill ings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley


Of Householders Living Alone, Percent Age 65 Plus in North Dakota by County: 2010Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic Profile



Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Bill ings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley


North Dakota Seniors Ages 85 and Older as a Percent of Seniors Ages 65 and Older in North Dakota by County: 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1

35

U.S. Household Net Worth, 2007 to 2010 est.in billions

Average 24.5% decline since 2007



Nonfarm Employment Growth in U.S. and Regional States; 2007 to 2009


Historical Rates of Unemployment, 1976 to 2009



U.S. rate 9.1%

41

ND Ranking in oil production9th in 20066th in 2008 4th in 2009(only behind TexasAlaska, and California)

12,750 worked in the oil patch in 2010 compared to 2,000 in 2007


Shift in the distribution of seniors Household composition shift to non-families,

especially single person HH Robust economic climate has created

opportunities and challenges for western ND◦ Strain for services◦ Inflated housing demand (higher rents, higher

property taxes)◦ Challenges with dynamic population


Dr. Richard Rathge, Director◦ North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,

IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108-6050◦ [email protected]◦ Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730◦ URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc



north dakota shifting demographics: challenges and opportunities dr. richard rathge professor and...

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