north american railcar review - the north east association ... presentations...title north american...

North American Railcar Review

David Humphrey, Ph.D.

Senior Data Scientist

April 19, 2018

© 2018 Railinc. All Rights Reserved. 2

Railinc data and solutions provide rail

equipment insights to enhance rail operations

Access to all Railinc data is subject to Railinc’s strict data access policy and confidentiality protocols.

Railinc’s Umler system is the industry’s comprehensive

source for rail equipment data. The Umler system enables:

• A consolidated view of rail assets, including history and

location

• Network oversight and asset health management

• Improved asset utilization and productivity

• Component-level analysis, predictive maintenance and

component-location management

• Improvements in safety, cost and utilization

• Standard and customized operating/historical analytics

Umler SystemRailSight solutions deliver superior visibility into rail and

intermodal shipments and enhanced rail asset health and

fleet management data. RailSight solutions provide:

• Near real-time data feed from 570+ rail carriers across

North America with more than 9 million events daily

• On-demand and historical tracing options

• Exception management, mapping and reporting

• Standard and customized operating/historical analytics

• Flexible connectivity, from EDI and FTP to MQ and APIs

• An easy-to-use, single-source solution with no IT setup

or capital investment required

RailSight Solutions


The Umler Equipment Index

Access to all Railinc data is subject to Railinc’s strict data access policy and confidentiality protocols.

The Umler Equipment Index provides

quarterly analysis of the total make-up of

the North American rail equipment fleet.

Data in the index represents all equipment

units on file in Railinc’s Umler system.

You can find the latest Umler Index at

www.railinc.com/rportal/railinc-indexes.

http://www.railinc.com/rportal/railinc-indexes

Changes Since REF 2017

• Fleet Dynamics from EOY 2016 to EOY 2017

– Analysis on revenue-earning fleet

– Total fleet size up about 0.3%

– Increases: Covered Hoppers (16K, 3%) and Tanks (1K, 0.3%)

– Decreases: Gondolas (Coal Fleet, 7K), Flats, Open Hoppers

– Box Cars with very small decrease



133 124 121 118 114 111 109 109 108

464 458 466 479 479 493 519 539 554

195 193 193 191 194 193196 198 196

237 231 230 232 228 228224 218 211

166 160 154 149 145 142 140137 135

304 300 303 315 339 371404 414 415

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tanks

Hoppers

Gondolas

Flats

Covered Hoppers

Box Cars

Total = 1,515 1,481 1,482 1,499 1,513 1,553

1,605 1,628 1,632

North American Freight Car Fleet, by Group(Counts at year end, shown in thousands)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

North American Freight Car FleetNumber of Cars, by Age (Revenue-Earning Fleet)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Th

ou

sa

nd

s




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

20

06

19

99

19

80

20

02

20

09

19

83

19

91

= approximate time of recession

2015


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Th

ou

sa

nd

sGRL_286 GRL_268 GRL_263 GRL_220

North American Freight Car FleetNumber of Cars, by Age and GRL (Revenue-Earning Fleet)


0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ave

rag

e A

ge

(Y

ea

rs)

19.519.5

North American Freight Car FleetAverage Age at End of Year (Revenue-Earning Fleet)


Rank Change ETC Count Description

1 C114 146K Covered Hopper: Grain/Fertilizer

2 C113 121K Covered Hopper: Grain/Fertilizer

3 C214 121K Covered Hopper: Plastics

4 C112 110K Covered Hopper: Sand/Cement

5 J311 98K Gondola: Coal

6 T108 81K Tank: Non-Pressurized, General Service

7 T389 50K Tank: Pressurized




Highlights

These 10 ETCs now represent

53% of the revenue-earning fleet.

Over 700 ETCs are present.

No changes in rank

C113, C214 diff: 8K to 0

T178 now 20th (0 at EOY2014)

S635: 7th?

North American Freight Car FleetTop 10 ETCs in Revenue-Earning Fleet


Age (Years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Tho

usa

nd

s

Box_Cars Covered_Hoppers Reefers Gondolas Hoppers Flats Tanks

North American Freight Car FleetCars, by Age and Type


Type of Tank Car 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Q1-Q3)

DOT 111 21,340 16,349 6,998 791 161

Non-Jacketed 18,212 13,711 6,188 543 61

Jacketed 3,128 2,638 810 248 100

CPC 1232 18,480 34,283 39,909 20,086 13,406

Non-Jacketed 11,966 17,163 17,962 8,498 4,641

Jacketed 6,514 17,120 21,947 11,588 8,765

DOT 117 0 0 1,950 3,383 3,392

117J 0 0 1,818 2,731 2,173

117R 0 0 132 652 1,219

DOT 115 0 10 6 0 0

AAR 211 513 171 59 7 0

Total Non-Pressure 40,333 50,813 48,922 24,267 16,959

DOT 105 5 0 0 0 0

DOT 112 3 78 53 47 0

DOT 114 0 0 0 0 0

DOT 120 0 0 4 598 734

Total Pressure Cars 8 78 57 645 734

Grand Total 40,341 50,891 48,979 24,912 17,693

Tank Cars Used for Shipping Petroleum Crude Oil

The number of DOT-111

tank cars making at least

one shipment of petroleum

crude oil decreased by

more than 99 percent

between 2013 and Q3 2017.

Source: Association of American Railroads



DOT 111 21,340 16,349 6,998 791 161

Non-Jacketed 18,212 13,711 6,188 543 61

Jacketed 3,128 2,638 810 248 100

CPC 1232 18,480 34,283 39,909 20,086 13,406

Non-Jacketed 11,966 17,163 17,962 8,498 4,641

Jacketed 6,514 17,120 21,947 11,588 8,765

DOT 117 0 0 1,950 3,383 3,392

117J 0 0 1,818 2,731 2,173

117R 0 0 132 652 1,219

DOT 115 0 10 6 0 0

AAR 211 513 171 59 7 0


DOT 105 5 0 0 0 0

DOT 112 3 78 53 47 0

DOT 114 0 0 0 0 0

DOT 120 0 0 4 598 734


Grand Total 40,341 50,891 48,979 24,912 17,693

Tank Cars Used for Shipping Petroleum Crude Oil



one shipment of petroleum

crude oil decreased by

more than 99 percent

between 2013 and Q3 2017.




DOT 111 26,628 28,609 30,688 29,045 24,728

Non-Jacketed 26,423 28,484 30,529 28,870 24,590

Jacketed 205 125 159 175 138

CPC 1232 456 2,077 3,763 3,485 3,280

Non-Jacketed 456 1,709 2,598 2,638 2,610

Jacketed 0 368 1,165 847 670

DOT 117 0 0 348 3,385 7,707

117J 0 0 341 2,133 4,918

117R 0 0 7 1,252 2,789

DOT 115 0 0 3 3 3

AAR 211 25 48 111 23 21


DOT 105 0 0 0 0 1

DOT 112 0 0 1 0 0

DOT 114 0 0 0 0 0

DOT 120 0 0 0 131 177


Grand Total 27,109 30,734 34,914 36,072 35,917

Tank Cars Used for Shipping Ethanol



one shipment of ethanol

decreased by more than 7

percent between 2013 and

Q3 2017.



• Age Demographics

• GRL Values of 286K and less than 286K

• Detailed Fleet Overview

North American Railcar Review

o Tank: DOT 111

o Tank: CPC 1232

o Tank: DOT 117

o Tank: Pressure

o Grain/Fertilizer

o Plastics

o Sand/Cement

o Pressure Differential

o Coal

o Mill Gondolas

o Aggregate

o Coil Gondolas

o Box Cars


11% of Fleet

185K cars

T108, T106,

T104, T107

Nearly all

GRL 263

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

No_Jacket With_Jacket

Tank: Non-Pressure, DOT 111Age Distribution, by Jacket Status


4% of Fleet

66K cars

T108, T109,

T208, T107

Nearly all

GRL 286

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

No_Jacket With_Jacket

Tank: Non-Pressure, CPC 1232Age Distribution, by Jacket Status


1% of Fleet

23K cars

T178, T179,

T177

All

GRL 286

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

New Retrofit

Tank: Non-Pressure, DOT 117Age Distribution, by New/Retrofit Status


5% of Fleet

83K cars

T389, T419,

T907, T944

Nearly all

GRL 263

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

GRL 286K GRL


17% of Fleet

280K cars

C113, C114,

C313, C314

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

>= 5000 CF < 5000 CF

Grain/FertilizerAge Distribution, by Capacity in Cubic Feet


7% of Fleet

121K cars

C214

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

>= 6000 CF < 6000 CF

PlasticsAge Distribution, by Capacity in Cubic Feet


7% of Fleet

116K cars

C111, C112,

C311, C312

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

>= 3000 CF < 3000 CF

Sand/CementAge Distribution, by Capacity in Cubic Feet


2% of Fleet

29K cars

C612, C614

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

>= 5000 CF < 5000 CF

Pressure DifferentialAge Distribution, by Capacity in Cubic Feet


13% of Fleet

216K cars

J311, K341,

K346, H350

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

GRL 286K GRL


4% of Fleet

65K cars

E534, G519,

G719

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

GRL 286K GRL


2% of Fleet

36K cars

K344, H350,

G119, J301

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

GRL 286K GRL


1% of Fleet

23K cars

E241, E531,

E441

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

GRL 286K GRL


7% of Fleet

109K cars

A606, A402,

A302, B314

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

GRL 286K GRL


Domestic Intermodal Containers

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1 &

2

3 &

4

5 &

6

7 &

8

9 &

10

11 &

12

13 &

14

15 &

16

17 &

18

19 &

20

21 &

22

23 &

24

25 &

26

27 &

28

29 &

30

31 &

32

33 &

34

35 &

36

37 &

38

39 &

40

41 &

42

43 &

44

45 &

46

47 &

48

49 &

50

53' Containers Registered in Umler


ETC1 = P, Q, S

4% of Fleet

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

69K cars

193K platforms

Intermodal Cars and PlatformsCount of Cars and Platforms (Revenue-Earning Fleet)


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201770

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Box Cars (A and B) Tanks (T)

Covered Hoppers (C)

104.3

85.0

146.0

106.9

113.5

98.0

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GT Gons (J)

117.1

91.9

100.2

94.4

Fleet Capacity and Average Car Size

@Railinc /railinc /railinc1 www.railinc.com

Railinc Keeps You Moving.

© 2018 Railinc. All Rights Reserved.

David Humphrey, Ph.D.919-651-5267

[email protected]

Railinc Customer Success Center

1-877-RAILINC

[email protected]
http://www.linkedin.com/company/railinchttps://twitter.com/railinchttp://www.youtube.com/user/Railinc1

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