norges bank annual address 2005. norges bank chart 1. developments in gdp and interest rates...
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Norges Bank Sources: Norges Bank, OECD, Statistics Norway Chart 2. International real interest rates Per cent Short-term real interest rates Long-term real interest ratesTRANSCRIPT
Norges Bank
Annual address 2005
Norges Bank
Chart 1. Developments in GDP and interest rates1900-1914
-2
0
2
4
6
1900 1904 1908 1912 1900 1904 1908 19120
2
4
6
8
10-year bond yield
Key rate
GDP
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Annual change. Per cent Per cent
Norges Bank
-8
-4
0
4
8
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-8
-4
0
4
8
Sources: Norges Bank, OECD, Statistics Norway
Chart 2. International real interest ratesPer cent
Short-term real interest rates
Long-term real interest rates
Norges Bank
Chart 3. Long-term real interest ratesPer cent
-8
-4
0
4
8
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-8
-4
0
4
8
Sources: Norges Bank, OECD, Statistics Norway
Norway
International
Norges Bank
Chart 4. Risk premium
0
3
6
9
12
15
1998 2000 2002 2004 1998 2000 2002 20040
10
20
30
40
50
Source: EcoWin
Foreign exchange market
Equity market
Emerging economies
Enterprises
Percentage points Per cent
Norges Bank
Chart 5. Current account balancePer cent of GDP
-8
-4
0
4
8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-8
-4
0
4
8
Sources: EcoWin / National statistics
US
Euro area
Asia
Norges Bank
Chart 6. US net foreign debtPer cent of GDP
-10
0
10
20
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002-10
0
10
20
Sources: Federal Reserve Board and US Department of Commerce
Norges Bank
Chart 7. Private domestic demandAnnual growth. Per cent
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Source: OECD
US
Euro area
Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8
Chart 8. Interest rates and inflationPer cent
Market rate
Inflation
Real interest rateNeutral real interest rate
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Chart 9. Key rate, lending rate and expected interest rate
Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
2002 2003 2004 20050
2
4
6
8
10
Key rate
Expected interest rate 9 months ahead
Banks' lending rate
Norges Bank
Chart 10. Krone exchange rate and interest rate differential against trading partners1)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002 2003 2004 200586
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
Krone exchange rate
right-hand scale
Interest rate differentialleft-hand scale
Source: Norges Bank
Percentage points Index
The exchange rate channel
1) The graph showing the interest rate differential against trading partners has been changed compared with the version of the speech printed in Economic Bulletin 1/05. This is due to an adjustment of the weighting for Japan.
Norges Bank
Chart 11. Krone exchange rate and rise in prices for imported consumer goods
-6
-4
-2
0
2002 2003 2004 200585
90
95
100Imported consumer goods left-hand scale
Sources: Norges Bank and Statistics Norway
Krone exchange rate right-hand scale
Per cent Index
The exchange rate channel
Norges Bank
Chart 12. Key rate and house pricesAnnual rise. Per cent
-5
0
5
10
15
2002 2003 2004 2005-5
0
5
10
15
Key rate
Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)
House prices
The demand channel
Norges Bank
Chart 13. Key rate and residential construction
0
3
6
9
2002 2003 2004 20050
10000
20000
30000
Residential construction
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Key rate
Per cent
Number of dwellings 12 mths
The demand channel
Norges Bank
Chart 14. Number employedIn thousands
2250
2260
2270
2280
2290
2300
2002 2003 20042250
2260
2270
2280
2290
2300
Source: Statistics Norway
The demand channel
Norges Bank
Chart 15. Rise in prices and capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy
Per cent
-4
-2
0
2
4
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004-4
-2
0
2
4Rise in prices for goods and services produced in Norway
Capacity utilisation
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
The demand channel
Norges Bank
Chart 16. Projected consumer price inflation5-year horizon. Annual rise. Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
2002 2003 20040
1
2
3
4
Source: TNS Gallup
Analysts and academicians
Employers' organisations
Employees' organisations
The expectations channel
Norges Bank
Chart 17. Inflation and capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy
Projections. Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Inflation
Capacity utilisation
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Inflation target
Projections
Norges Bank
Chart 18. Central government spending and GDP
Annual growth. Per cent
0
3
6
9
12
15
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 20030
3
6
9
12
15
Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Norway
Underlying spending growth
Nominal growth in mainland GDP
2004
Norges Bank
Chart 19. CompetitivenessDeviation from average. Per cent
-20
-10
0
10
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-20
-10
0
10
20
Sources: TRCIS, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
0
100
200
300
400
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
100
200
300
400
500
Chart 20. Employment in manufacturingIn thousands
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
Chart 21. Wage growth and unemploymentPer cent
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20040
2
4
6
8
Source: Statistics Norway, TRCIS
Wage growth
Unemployment rate
Norges Bank
Chart 22. Labour force participation among young people
Per cent
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20040
15
30
45
60
75
90
Source: Statistics Norway
Age group 20-24
Age group 16-19
Norges Bank
Chart 23. Number of unemployedIn thousands
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Number of unemployed
Frictional and structural unemployment
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
Chart 24. Persons on early retirement, disability pensioners and unemployed persons
Percentage of population (aged 16-66)
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004-4
0
4
8
12
16
Disability pensioners
Cyclical fluctuations in unemployment
Persons on early retirement
Frictional and structural unemployment
Sources: Statistics Norway, National Insurance Administration and Norges Bank