noosa biosphere climate action project:
DESCRIPTION
Community Adaptation Workshop in Peregian Beach Community House, 3 March 2011TRANSCRIPT
“I think we have a very brief window of opportunity to deal with climate change –no longer than a decade, at the most….”
If we continue with business as usual, “we will be producing a different planet.”
Dr. James Hansen
Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
September 14, 2006Photos: Noosa Integrated Catchment Association, Inc.
What is climate change?
A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability over comparable time periods.
Climate Change in Queensland: What the Science is Telling Us
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
What is adaptation?
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic changes or their effect, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
(Queensland Government, 2010)
Climate Change in Queensland: What the Science is Telling Us
ttp://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
Adaptation
“… preparing for the impacts and managing the risks of climate change that is already committed to by past emissions and those in the near future”.
(CSIRO 2006)
The IPCC: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2500+ SCIENTIFIC EXPERT REVIEWERS
800+ CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS AND
450+ LEAD AUTHORS FROM
130+ COUNTRIES
6 YEARS WORK
1 REPORT
The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report concludes:
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [90%] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [human] greenhouse gas concentrations.”
The IPCC’s work is
generally considered the
most conservative and
reliable assessment of
climate change science
available today.
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/AR4/.html
The Joint Science AcademiesAll industrialized countries have a scientific body made of the best and
brightest scientists in their fields: i.e. The UK’s Royal Society and
Australia’s Australian Academy of Science. Collectively, these entities are often called the “joint science academies”.
In 2005, the Joint Academies’ climate change statement noted:
"The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action” and it called on world leaders to "acknowledge that the threat of climate change is clear and increasing.“
In terms of economic costs, it called on leaders to "recognize that delayed action will increase the risk of adverse environmental effects and will likely incur a greater cost."
Recent climate research
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/dev
eloping-national-coastal-adaptation-agenda.pdf
Climate Change in Queensland: What the Science is Telling Us
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
Climate change research
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/dev
eloping-national-coastal-adaptation-agenda.pdf
“Early planning can ensure we take a measured and cost-effective approach to managing the impacts of coastal climate change, allowing the economy and our society to adjust positively over time.”Greg Combet, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
Developing a national coastal adaptation agenda is a recent report produced by the National Climate Change Forum held in 2010.
Climate change research
Climate Change in Queensland (2010) offers a detailed review and update on the latest climate science and what it means for Queensland.
It provides an in-depth analysis drawing on a review of more than 200 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in the last three years.
Climate Change in Queensland: What the
Science is Telling Us
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/clima
te-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
“… there are some things we’re very clear about. We know the sea level is going up, we know temperatures are going up, we have a high degree of confidence in some regions that things are drying.
So we can use that understanding of the climate system to be making decisions now”.
Dr Andrew Ash, CSIRO
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English13
Observed sea-level rise around the Australian coastline: 1990-2008
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda 2010
SLR global average projections for 2100
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English14
There has been a growing concern that sea-level rise at the upper end of the IPCC estimates is plausible by the end of this century. A rise of more than 1.0 metre and as high as 1.5 metres cannot be ruled out.
‘there’s a whole range of evidence that shows that the climate system is moving faster than we would have thoughtabout a decade ago’
Professor Will Steffen, ANU
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda
2010
Sea-level rise projections to 2350
Dr John Church (CSIRO) : ‘If we don’t start acting now [to reduce greenhouse gas emissions], we won’t be arguing about 50cm or 80cm of sea-level rise, we’ll be talking about metres, and the impact on the coasts, on all of the councils, on all of the society around Australia, will be much larger’.
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English15
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda 2010
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English16
Frequency of high sea-level events
A moderate rise in sea level will also have a significant multiplying impact on the frequency of high sea-level events.
By 2030, what are now 1-in-100 year storm tide events could become 1-in-20 year events, and by 2070 such events would be an almost annual occurrence.
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda 2010
A storm surge is a rise above the normal water level along a shore that is the
result of strong onshore winds and /or reduced atmospheric pressure.
Storm surges accompany a tropical cyclone as it comes ashore. They may also
be formed by intense low-pressure systems in non-tropical areas.
Climate extremes: storm surges
Noosa’s future storm tide events
Extreme Events: Increase in extreme
events with the Noosa
1-in-100 year storm tide
event projected to
increase by 42 cmhttp://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/p
df/regionsummary-seq.pdf
Observed and Projected Climate Variables
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/regionsummary-seq.pdf
Temperature:An increase in up to 1.8 degrees Celsius by 2050Rainfall:A decrease in annual rainfall by up to 13%Intensive rainfall events: A increase of up to 30% thus increasing local floodingHeatwaves: An increase in heatwave duration and intensityDroughts: More frequent periods of droughtCyclones:An increase in the peripheral effectsfrom tropical cyclone activityincluding storm surge and more intensivewind speedshttp://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
Noosa’s future climate
Photo: Noosa Integrated Catchment Association, Inc.
Why is the Sunshine Coast so vulnerable to climate change impacts?
The IPCC, in its 2007 Fourth
Assessment Report, cites only
two “vulnerability hot spots” in all
of Australia.
SEQ is one of them.
Climate change + population growth + urban development = “vulnerability hot spot”
Noosa’s summer temperatureSunshine Coast region (mean summer temperature)
Baseline (1990)
Summer Temperature
Source: IPCC SRES SimCLIM
Noosa region:
27.8 - 29
degrees Celsius
Noosa’s future summer temperatureSunshine Coast region(Mean summer temperature, worst case scenario)
IPCC SRES: Hadley GCM, A1FI Emissions Scenario, High Sensitivity
Noosa region:
30.3 to 31.5
Celsius
2050 2100
Noosa region:
31.5 to 34
Celsius
Noosa’s future temperatureIncrease in temperature and projections that
“Tewantin may have nearly four times the number of
days over 35 degrees Celsius by 2070.”
(Currently 3 days/year, projected up to 11 days/year)
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/regionsummary-seq.pdf
Climate Extremes
Extreme weather events occur within the climate’s natural variability.
The effects of climate change will be superimposed on natural climate variability, leading to changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Climate ExtremesRecent observations show that an increasing number of
extreme weather events can be attributed to human-
induced changes in the climate system (QCCCE 2010).
For example, an increase in the Noosa 1-in-100 year
storm tide event projected to increase by 42 cm
(ClimateQ 2009).
Extreme weather events from
climate change have the
greatest potential impact
on human and natural systems.
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
Impacts from Noosa’s changing climate
Photo: Ben Fitzgibbon
Photo: Warren Scanlon
What impacts will Noosa’s vulnerable
coastal communitiesexperience?
Climate change research
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/dev
eloping-national-coastal-adaptation-agenda.pdf
The National Climate Change Forum:
Adaptation Priorities for Australia’s
Coasts sought to commence a
dialogue with coastal decision-makers
on the national coastal adaptation
agenda.
Around 200 senior decision-makers
attended the Forum including
representatives from many local
governments (including many mayors
and councillors), state, territory and
Australian governments and
departments, regional coastal boards,
academic institutions and industry groups.
Frequency of high sea-level events
By 2030, what are now 1-in-100 year storm tide events could become 1-in-20 year events
By 2070 such events would be an almost annual occurrence
Frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events may also be altered, including tropical cyclones, rainfall distribution and wind, with subsequent changes in wave climates and storm surge.
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English32
Source: National Climate Change Forum: Adaptation Priorities for Australia’s Coast Report 2010
Professor Will Steffen (ANU):
‘the total number of cyclones may actually decrease but the number of intense ones, category three to five, may increase’. For rainfall distribution ‘we may get less rainfall [in some areas] but it appears that the rain is coming in more intense events’.
Future SLR and local planning decisions
Even after atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are limited , sea levels will continue to rise beyond 2100because of:
The lag between atmospheric and ocean warming The time required for icesheets to melt and The momentum in the climate system.
Planning schemes: The timeframe of hundreds of years is relevant to the lifespan of some major pieces of infrastructure and to decisions on the location of major urban areas.
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English33
Source: Developing a National Coastal Adaptation Agenda 2010
Coastal infrastructure impacts include inundation and accelerated degradation of materials and foundations for our ports, airports and roads.
This includes saltwater intrusion into all asset --pipes, sewerage treatment plants, etc.
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English34
Source: Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts 2009.
Australian infrastructurewithin 200 metres of the coastline
Between 157,000 and 247,000 existing residential buildings at risk from a 1.1 metre sea-level rise
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English35
Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coast report (2009):
“the replacement value of residential buildings alone from a sea-level rise of 1.1.m isup to $63 billion(2008 value).”
Early Action vs. Delay
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English36
While communities require improved information in order to understand and plan for climate change risks, this should not be used as a reason to delay taking action.
‘… the core of climate science is exceptionally well known
with a high degree of certainty, and this is enough to act on’
Professor Will Steffen, ANU
Benefits of Early Action
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English37
Well planned early action can help alleviate some of the future cost burden of action.
Example: Mornington Peninsula Shire’s $3 million/year coastal works adaptation planning budget
“It’s saving money if we do some of these works now, versus the long term costs… In the case of our Shire, an additional $3 million is now budgeted each year for flood and erosion works, to prepare for the extreme weather events”.
Mayor David Gibb, Mornington Peninsula Shire
National sea-level rise benchmarks
The House of Representatives Committee Standing Committee on Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts 2009 reportrecommended national guidance for coastal land-use planning in the context of climate change, particularly in setting sea-level rise benchmarks. Different benchmark heights could be identified for decisions with varying planning horizons or asset value.
‘The rate of projected rise in sea level is critical for estimating the severity of potential impacts… and we recommended that the government consider the benefits of adopting a nationally consistent sea-level rise planning benchmark’
Jennie George, former MP and Chair of HoR Standing Committee
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English38
Local impacts,local and national responsesThe Australian Government’s Adapting to Climate Change in Australia,
identifies its role as:
providing national science and information to support adaptation planning
leading in areas of national reform
maintaining a strong and flexible economy and
ensuring climate change considerations are addressed in its own programs and assets.
‘The impact of climate change will be felt at local and regional scales and adaptation needs to happen at those scales but we also need to have the appropriate top-down responses because we do run the risk if it’s all bottom-up they’ll lack consistency’ Dr Andrew Ash, CSIRO
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English39
Communicating climate risk
Many people in coastal communities may not yet see the direct impacts of climate change to their lives.The challenge now is how to better communicate science findings and risks when direct changes cannot yet be observed.
‘the great problem we face is a disconnect between the weight of global scientific opinion and a very confused public’.
Professor Tim Flannery
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English40
Successful community engagement
on adaptation Mornington Peninsula Shire Council’s Climate Change
Conversations which began with a series of meetings where residents were asked “What do you think is going to happen and what should we do about it?”
Byron Bay Shire encouraged older residents to share their stories about the storms, the floods, the things that they’ve experienced which led to discussions about what would happen if those events happened now or were more extreme.
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English41
Successful community engagement
on adaptation
NSW king tidephotography project of 2009 was highly effective in improving awareness by visually highlighting potentially vulnerable areas along its coast.
5/03/2011Coastal communities and adaptation
Kate English42
What are the other
important impacts facing
residents of Noosa?
Economic impacts
Economic impacts
Safety impacts
Police urge road safety amid floods
Posted April 5, 2009
Police on south-east Queensland's Sunshine Coast say road conditions in the area will continue to be dangerous as more rain falls over the next few days. The body of a 78-year-old woman was found yesterday after her car was swept from a flooded roadway north of Kin Kin in the Sunshine Coast hinterland on Thursday night.
Agricultural impacts• Shorter growing season
• Increased decomposition of soil organic matter
• Depletion in soil fertility (native N stocks)
• Decline in soil structure
• Reduced soil cover
• Loss of crops due to severe flooding
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
Health Impacts heat stress
other heat-related illness (affecting the heart, blood vessels and lungs)
trauma from extreme weather events
mental illness in areas affected by long-term drought and other natural disasters
respiratory problems from airborne pollutants
infectious diseases such as gastroenteritis
dengue fever and Ross River virus due to changes in the distribution of disease-carrying mosquitoes.
Photos: Noosa Integrated Catchment Association, Inc.
Given the current risks and
uncertainties from climate
change, what is the most
prudent thing to do?
Implement a climate
strategy with meaningful
adaptation and mitigation
measures and actions.
What is adaptation?
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic changes or their effect, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
(Queensland Government, 2010)
Climate Change in Queensland: What the Science is Telling Us
ttp://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climate-change-in-queensland-2010.pdf
Adaptation
“… preparing for the impacts and managing the risks of climate change that is already committed to by past emissions and those in the near future”.
(CSIRO 2006)
Adaptation can be implemented by: setting measurable actions
building the adaptive capacity of stakeholders
monitoring an evolving, dynamic process that is tailored to a particular set of circumstances
integrating science, policy, planning and management to meet stakeholders’ needs in addressing climate variability and change issues as they relate to specific locations and conditions