NOAA’s Role in Renewable Energy

Don Berchoff, NWS Director, Office of Science and Technology

AMS Summer Community Meeting August 2009, Norman, Oklahoma

2

Outline

• The Imperative

• NOAA’s Role

• Primary Gaps

• Primary Challenges

• Proposed Wayahead

3

The Imperative

Statement of Administration Policy 27 Jul 09

“Build a new economy powered by clean and secure energy”

*

4

NOAA’s Role

• Science, Technology & Services for America– Applied research, development and improvement– Observation and monitoring--remote and in situ– Modeling, assessment and prediction– Data warehousing/management– Decision Support Services to Federal, State, Local

governments

• Leverage State, Industry, & Academia – Science and technology innovation– Spatial planning, permitting, and licensing– Metadata/data management and communication

5

NOAA’s RoleEnable America’s Economic Productivity/Competitive Advantage

Weather Information Data Base (2013-2016)

WIDB Cube

CustomGraphic

Generators

CustomGraphic

Generators

Governmental Decision MakingGovernmental Decision Making

DecisionSupportSystems

DecisionSupportSystems

CustomAlphanumeric

Generators

CustomAlphanumeric

Generators

ObservationsObservationsNumericalPredictionSystems

NumericalPredictionSystems

PostprocessedProbabilistic

Output

PostprocessedProbabilistic

Output

NWSForecaster

NWSForecaster

ForecastingForecasting

Automated ForecastSystems

Automated ForecastSystems

Forecast IntegrationForecast Integration

RadarsRadars

AircraftAircraft

SurfaceSurface

SatellitesSatellites

SoundingsSoundings

Private SectorPrivate Sector

Private SectorPrivate Sector

Weather IndustryWeather Industry Private IndustryPrivate Industry

6

Primary Science Gaps

• Observational data and data assimilation; improved temporal and spatial variability are needed• Direct solar beam and satellite irradiance• Planetary boundary layer winds, turbulence, friction, shear...• Temperature, moisture, precipitation, and icing• Aerosol and cloud cover, solar radiance• Space weather

• Models; require improved temporal and spatial resolution, data assimilation, verification• Ocean/lake circulation, waves, tides, currents• Coupled land use and ecology

7

Primary ChallengesOptimal Siting of Wind Farms

• Maximize wind resource potential• Minimize environmental footprint• Avoid impacts on mission critical use

of NOAA’s Doppler weather radar

Wind turbines can create clutter that appears as storms on Doppler

Des Moines NEXRAD (KDMX) on July 19, 2007 Dodge City, KS NEXRAD (KDDC) on Feb. 23. 2007

Corrupted Doppler Velocities can negatively impact warnings and alerts

8

Primary Challenges

• Identifying private industry requirements for WIDB contents to:– Optimize America’s renewable energy productivity/reliability at lowest cost– Ensure competitive advantage in the global market

• Short-range forecasting of industry-sensitive weather parameters

• Resourcing High Performance Computing to meet National needs

• Enabling private sector contributions to WIDB for the National and private sector good—data proprietary rights/restrictions

• Conflicting land, coastal, and marine planning

• Resolving radar proximity and competing/ mixed use

• Others?

9

Proposed Wayahead• Enable Public/Private partnerships to fill gaps

– collect and manage proprietary data, certify anonymity and feedback, to improve data quality, standardized modeling and derived products

– contributions to the Weather Information Data Base (WIDB or 4D Data Cube)

• NOAA enables industry effectiveness and productivity, relevant to energy supply, demand, distribution, and management

– provide and improve timely and spatially-specific/gridded forecasts• Integrated National Mesonet• Contribute to Closing observing gaps• Advanced data assimilation—Hybrid 4D-Var/EnKF• Next Generation National Global Model• Accurate/reliable probabilistic forecasts of sensible weather parameters

– acquire necessary IT and high performance computing resources– easy access to WIDB

• NOAA supports collaborative extramural science research and technology transfer programs, projects and activities

10

• Work together to mitigate radar/wind farm siting issues– MOU between wind energy industry and federal agencies

• Early notification• Early consultation to seek low-impact siting alternatives• Curtail turbine operations during significant weather events• Radar protection/consultation zones

– Research & Development • Quantitative assessment modeling tools • Radar – based solutions (e.g., signal processing, modeling) • Wind Turbine – based solutions (e.g., stealthy towers/blades)

– National “clearing house” for developers to submit project plans…..all federal agencies…..earlier impact assessment

Proposed Wayahead

11

Questions?

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Distance between Wind Farm & Radar (Kilometers)

Imp

ac

t

Notional Wind Turbine Impact (When Turbines in Radar Line of Sight)

IMPACTS within RLOS

--Clutter

--Algorithm Impacts

--Some Workarounds Available

IMPACTS up to 3km

--Partial Attenuation of Radar Beam

--Personnel Safety (within 200 meters)

--Limited or No Workarounds

IMPACTS up to 18km

--Multi-path Scatter

--Multiple Elevation Scans Impacted

--Bulk Cable Interference

--Difficult to work around

13

Technology Transfer Practices• Requirements-driven Research and Development

– Grants, contracts, and agreements– Cooperative Institutes, Regional Associations, Testbeds

• Data Management (Exchange and transfer)– Licensing Agreements, – Memoranda of Understanding

• Anonymous data transfer policy, assimilation, Q/C– Data archiving and access - Public-Private Policy

• Modeling and Mapping– Standards and infrastructure

• Sustainable Transition to Operations– Early and enduring stakeholder engagement– Requirements and cost effectiveness analysis– Performance-based budgeting– Product life-cycle planning and service orientation

14

Leveraging ExpertiseMoving Forward

• Integrated Observations – Mesoscale network-of-networks– Special area platforms and partnerships

• Physical and ecological complexity; Higher resolution– Data management and communication

• Data integration; Metadata and quality practices• Data Exchange, quality control, and assimilation

• IT infrastructure and real-time communications• Resource modeling and forecasting

– Earth-system model framework– Standard physical models and ecological forecasting– Uncertainty information and probabilistic forecasts

15

Leveraging ExpertiseMoving Forward

• Risk management and mitigation– Impact-based forecasting; variability and co-variability

• Wind, ice, heat, turbulence, precipitation, hydrology ...

• Spatial planning and permit support– Geospatial information on land and off-shore– Gridded models and digital forecasts– Portals and decision tools; 4-D databases

• Applied research– Utilize and make efficient complementary technology– Transition to operations