NOAA OARi n n o v a t e incubate integrate

Transformative Research

Craig McLeanActing Assistant Administrator

OAR

OAR

STRENGTHENING SCIENCE

Innovate, Incubate, Integrate Research across NOAA

innovateincubate

integrate

transformative research

HOLISTIC &INTEGRATED

INNOVATE Enable discovery, development and deployment of scienceINCUBATE Identify and foster long-term transformative researchINTEGRATE Bridge research activities across NOAA and external partners

NSF “ Transformative research involves ideas, discoveries, or tools that radically change our understanding of an important existing scientific or engineering concept or educational practice or leads to the creation of a new paradigm or field of science, engineering, or education. Such research challenges current understanding or provides pathways to new frontiers.”

EXAMPLES & DEFINITIONS

Transformative ResearchO

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RTRANSFORMATIVE RESEARCH

Two Notable Examples

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RTRANSFORMATIVE RESEARCH

Understanding the Ozone Hole

TIMELINE1985 Ozone hole discovered by British Antarctic Survey1986 Susan Solomon & colleagues suggest CFC responsible for

ozone losses1987 National Ozone Expedition confirms theory1989 Montreal Protocol becomes effective1990 Title VI of Clean Air Act (Stratospheric Ozone Protection)

The field of “heterogeneous chemistry” or gas-particle interactions established

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RTRANSFORMATIVE RESEARCH

El Niño and the TAO Array

TIMELINE1984 Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program begins in

response to massive 1982 El Nino• prototype ATLAS field tested and • Modest array deployed

1994 TAO array completed1997 US Congress authorizes long-term sustained support of TAO1998 Emerging TAO array critical in predicting 1997-1998 El Nino2000 Japan’s JAMSTEC and TAO join forces to create TAO/Triton array

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RTRANSFORMATIVE RESEARCH Examples of Commercialization

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RTRANSFORMATIVE RESEARCH

Tsunamis: DART

Development 25+ years1999 1st testing of prototype2000 1st 4 DART® stations in place2001 TsunamiReady communities initiated2004Indian Ocean No operational inundation forecast models2005-2008 39 DART® stations2006 Tsunami Warning and Education Act enacted2007 Patent/Technology transfer to SAIC2009 New tsunami forecast system installed @ NWS

Tsunami Warning Centers

TIMELINE

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RTRANSFORMATIVE RESEARCH

Doppler, NEXRAD, AWIPS, MPAR

TIMELINE1970s NSSL development of Doppler velocity signatures for tornadoes1990-1997 Installation of 158 Doppler radars1996 AWIPS visualization software

installedPresent Multi-Mission Phased Array Radar

(MPAR) in development

TORNADO WARNINGSbefore & after NEXRAD

Lead timesAccuracy

Flash floodlead times

FatalitiesInjuries

<5 min 13 min40% 75%

14 min 54 min

45% fewer40% fewer

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RTRANSFORMATIVE RESEARCH Looking to the Future

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RSTRENGTHENING SCIENCEOpportunities for Transformative Research

RENEWABLE ENERGY

UNMANNED OBSERVING SYSTEMS

ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & NEW COMPUTER TECHNOLOGYIntegrated climate/environmental modelsIntegrate ecosystems data (habitats, food chains) into stock assessments

MARINE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

Wind, solar, and ocean energy: New methods and technology to measure, site, and forecast; methods to assess and model environmental impacts, and to assist in programmatic EIS or EA.Hydropower: water cycle forecasting/hydrometeorology

Replace ships and aircraft measurements. Nano sensors, micro methods, links to cabled observatories by autonomous sensors.Unmanned aerial systems (UASs): Global Hawk experiment with NASA/NavyAutonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs)

Secure food resources – aquaculture technology

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RSABRequested Guidance from the SAB

• Identify best practices (e.g., DoD and DoE) for incubating transformative research.

• Foster transformative research in times of budget restraint/cuts.

• Reduce time to market/operations (i.e. identify customers, facilitate transitions)

• Promote a culture of risk and innovation in NOAA R&D

A d d i t i o n a l S l i d e s

TransformationalCreative “out-of- the-box” research

Industry by itself cannot or will not support

Risk may be high

Dramatic benefits for the Nation

EXAMPLES & DEFINITIONS

Transformative or Transformational?O

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Research goes from transformative to transformational when it its impacts extend beyond the Agency to policy and the Nation.

Source – Department of Energy

Oceanic & Atmospheric Research and Development Program

Requires NOAA to implement programs and activities to : • Identify emerging and innovative R&D priorities to

enhance U.S. competitiveness• Promote U.S. leadership in oceanic and atmospheric

science in the applied use of such knowledge, and• Advance ocean, coastal, Great Lakes and atmospheric

R&D including transformational research , consistent with NOAA’s mission.

Also requires NOAA to provide a report to Congress within 12 months with a strategy for enhancing the agency’s transformational R&D portfolio

BACKGROUND

America COMPETES ReauthorizationO

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16

Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies

Weather-Ready Nation

Healthy Ocean

Climate Adaptationand Mitigation

OAR STRATEGIC ACTION PLANOAR Research Priorities Aligned with NOAA Next-Generation Strategic Plan

Next-Generation Strategic Plan OAR’s Holistic Research Priorities•Develop cutting edge observing systems and platforms

•Develop science capabilities for observations, including unmanned vehicles and animal-borne sensors

•Develop next-generation forecasts, tools, and technologies for a Weather-Ready Nation

•Develop integrated ecological research capabilities, including new science approaches, tools, and technologies to support implementation of the National Ocean Policy

•Develop Earth system prediction capability

•Enhance NOAA’s social science capability

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RRESEARCH

Highest Priority Areas Now•Climate: portal, assessment services•Water resources: research to operations•Hurricane track and intensity forecasts: Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)•Ocean acidification monitoring and research•Tornadoes: Multi-function Phased Array Radar (MPAR)•Ocean exploration and research •Aviation weather: NextGen•Air chemistry•Greenhouse gas monitoring•Observations: Unmanned aerial systems (UAS)•Earth system modeling•Arctic: assessments, sea ice modeling•Ecosystems: ecosystem forecasting, invasive species•Tsunami research

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RINCUBATOR

Climate Services