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Groundwater Availability Modeling

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Cindy Ridgeway Contract Manager

Texas Water Development Board

GAM! Purpose: to develop the best possible

groundwater availability model with the available time and money.

! Public process: you get to see how the model is put together.

! Freely available: standardized, thoroughly documented, and available over the internet.

! Living tools: periodically updated.

What isgroundwateravailability?

! �the amount of groundwater available for use.! The State does not decide how much

groundwater is available for use: GCDs and RWPGs decide.

! A GAM is a tool that can be used to assess groundwater availability once GCDs and RWPGs decide how to define groundwater availability.

! The model� predict water levels and flows in response to � effects of well fields

! Data in the model� water in storage� recharge estimates� hydraulic properties

! GCDs and RWPGs can request runs

How do we

use GAM?

Do we have

to use GAM?

! Water Code & TWDB rules require that GCDs! TWDB rules require that RWPGs use GAM

Living

Tools

! GCDs, RWPGs, TWDB, and others collect new ! This information can enhance the current ! TWDB plans to update GAMs every five years ! Please share information and ideas with TWDB

Participating in

the GAM Process! SAF meetings

� hear about progress on the model� comment on model assumptions

! Report review� Happening now! Final Draft Report posted on TWDB website.

� http://www.twdb.state.tx.us/gam/symr/symr.htm� Please read it and feel free to offer suggestions, comments, or

! Contact TWDB� Cindy Ridgeway (512) 936-2386 or Robert Mace (512) 936-

http://www.twdb.state.tx.us/gam/symr/symr.htm

Contract [email protected]

(512)936-2386www.twdb.state.tx.us/gam

Groundwater Availability Modeling (GAM) for the

Seymour Aquifer

Fourth Stakeholder Advisory ForumApril 1, 2004

Outline of Presentation

! Aquifer Review! Draft Report

Overview! Model Design! Conceptual Model! Model Implementation! Steady-State Model! Transient Model

Results

! Drought of Record! Predictive Model

Results! Conclusions! Model Limitations and

Future Improvements! GAM Schedule

Aquifer Review

Aquifer Location

Lone WolfGCD

High PlainsUWCD No.1

PanhandleGCD

Rolling PlainsGCD

Tri-CountyGCD

Wes-TexGCD

ClearForkGCD

Salt ForkUWCD Lower Seymour

GCD

CollingsworthCountyUWCD

File

: SE

Y_2

.6_G

CD

s.m

xd

Source: Online: Texas Water Development Board, August 2003

Model Boundary

County Boundaries

State Line

Seymour AquiferGround Water Conservation Districts

Blaine Aquifer

0 10 20

Miles

Panhandle

Region B

LlanoEstacado

Brazos G Region C

Region F

File

: SEY

_2.5

_RW

PG

s.m

xd

Source: Online: Texas Water Development Board, September 2002

0 10 20

Miles

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

Seymour Aquifer

Regional Water Plannig Groups

GCDs and UWCDs RWPGs

General Stratigraphy & Surface Geology

Seymour/AlluviumQuartermaster � Ochoa GroupWhitehorse � Artesia Group----------------------------------------------------

Dog Creek ShalePease River Blaine Formation

Group Flowerpot ShaleSan Angelo Sandstone

----------------------------------------------------Clear Choza FormationFork Vale Formation

Group Arroyo Formation----------------------------------------------------Wichita Group

File

: SE

Y_2

.17_

Surfa

ce_G

eolo

gy.m

xd

Source: Online: United States Geological Survey

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

Geological Unit

Quaternary AlluviumOgallala FormationFredericksburg GroupTrinity GroupDockum FormationQuartermaster FormWhitehorse GroupPease River GroupClear Fork GroupWichita GroupWolfcampian Series

0 10 20

Miles

Generalized Cross Section

GeologicAge

Quaternary

Wichita

Whitehorse

Pease River

Clear Fork

QuartermasterSeymour

Permian

Seymour Pods

0 10 20

Miles

1

2

3 4

5

6

78

910

1112

1314

15

Wheeler

Gray

Donley

Collingsworth

ChildressHall

Motley

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Dickens King

Scurry

Fisher

NolanTaylor

Jones

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Knox

Foard

Hardeman

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Baylor

Throckmorton

Archer

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Harmon

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Tillman

Washita

Kiowa

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Cotton

Jeffe

rson

Ste

phen

s

Arm

stro

ngB

risco

eFl

oyd

Cro

sby

Gar

zaC

arso

n

Wichita

Model BoundarySeymour Aquifer

Draft Report Overview

Report StatusGroundwater Availability Model for the

Seymour Aquifer

Permian

Quaternary

Layer 2Layer 1

Seymour Seymour Seymour Seymour

Quartermaster Whitehorse Pease River Clear Fork Wichita

Wichita

Whitehorse

Pease River

Clear Fork

QuartermasterSeymour

Recharge

Discharge (ET, springs, pumping)

River-aquifer Interaction

Cross-formational Flow

Recharge

Discharge (ET, springs, pumping)

River-aquifer Interaction

Cross-formational Flow

No Flow

No Flow No Flow

GeologicAge

ModelLayer

Prepared for the:

Texas Water Development Board

Prepared by: John Ewing, Toya Jones, and John Pickens 9111A Research Blvd Austin, TX 78758 512/425-2000 Andrew Chastain-Howley Kirk Dean

March 1, 2004

! Delivered to TWDB on March 1, 2004

! In public review period until April 9, 2004

! Submit comments in writing to Cindy Ridgeway at the TWDB� [email protected].

us� 1700 North Congress Avenue

P.O. Box 13231Austin, Texas 78711-3231

! Can download report at: http://www.twdb.state.tx. us/gam/symr/symr.htm

! Several CDs with report available here at meeting

http://www.twdb.state.tx.us/gam/symr/symr.htm

Report Overview ! Section 1 - Introduction! Section 2 � Study Area

� Study area� Physiography and climate� Geology

! Section 3 - Previous Investigations

! Section 4 � Hydrogeo-logic Setting� Hydrostratigraphy� Structure� Water levels and regional

groundwater flow� Recharge� Natural aquifer discharge

! Section 4 (continued)� Hydraulic properties� Aquifer discharge through

pumping� Water quality

! Section 5 - Conceptual Model of Groundwater Flow for the Seymour GAM

! Section 6 � Model Design� Code and processor� Boundary condition

implementation� Model hydraulic para-

meters

Report Overview (continued)! Section 9 (continued)

� Simulation results� Sensitivity analysis

! Section 10 � Model Predictive Simulations� Drought of record� Predictive simulation

results� Predictive simulation water

budget

! Section 11 � Limitations of the Model� Limitations of supporting

data� Assessment of

assumptions

! Section 7 � Modeling Approach� Calibration� Calibration target

uncertainty� Sensitivity analysis� Predictions

! Section 8 � Steady-State Model� Calibration� Simulation results� Sensitivity analysis

! Section 9 � Transient Model� Calibration

Report Overview (continued)! Section 11 (continued)

� Limits for model applicability

! Section 12 � Future Improvements� Additional supporting data� Future model implemen-

tation improvements

! Section 13 � Conclusions! Section 14 � Acknow-

ledgements! Section 15 - References

! Appendices� A � Brief summary of

historical development of the Seymour and Blaine aquifers on a county by county basis

� B � Compilation of structure data from TCEQ well log records

� C � Standard operating procedures (SOPs) for processing historical pumpage data TWDB Seymour GAM project

Report Overview (continued)! Appendices (continued)

� D � Standard operating procedures (SOPs) for processing predictive pumpage data TWDB Seymour GAM project

� E � All transient hydrographs for the Seymour aquifer

� F � All transient hydrographs for the Blaine aquifer

Model Design

Modeling Protocol

! Compile and Analyze Field and Literature Data! Develop a Conceptual Model! Model Design! Calibrate the Model! Verify the Model! Use the Model for Predictive Purposes

Schematic of Modeling PeriodsW

ater

Ele

vatio

nin

Wel

l

PredictionSteady State Calibration Verification

Observed Water Level

Model Water Level

1980 1990 20001967 2050

Conceptual Model

Structure - Seymour

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ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

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File

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State Line

County Boundaries

Driller's Logs on TWDB Website

County Report Tables# Driller's Logs in TWDB ReportsD Driller's Logs in TCEQ RecordsÎ Seymour Outline

Contours from Published Reports

0 10 20

Miles

File

: SE

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Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

0 - 20

20 - 30

30 - 40

40 - 60

60 - 80

80 - 100

100 - 150

150 - 200

Thickness(ft)

0 10 20

Miles

Data Sources Thickness Map

Structure - Blaine

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ


ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ

ÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎÎ


File

: SE

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State Line

County Boundaries

County Report DataÎ Blaine Outcrop Points

Blaine Contours from Report

Blaine Downdip

Blaine Outcrop0 10 20

Miles

File

: SE

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Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

0 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 150

150 - 200

200 - 250

250 - 300

300 - 350

350 - 400

400 - 450

450 - 500

500 - 550

550 - 650

Thickness (ft)

0 10 20

Miles

Data Sources Thickness Map

Water-Level Measurement LocationsSeymour Blaine

0 10 20

Miles

Alluvium (116)Quaternary Alluvium (179)Alluvial Plain Deposits (110)Alluvial Terrace and Channel Deposits (25)Alluvium, Terrace Deposits, and Seymour Formation (81)Terrace Deposits (9)Pleistocene Series (3)Seymour Formation (3046) 0 10 20

Miles

Model BoundaryCounty BoundariesBlaine OutcropBlaine DowndipBlaine Gypsum (983)Blaine and Dog Creek Shale (83)

11,855 water-level measurementsin 3,569 wells

2,941 water-level measurementsin 782 wells

Example Hydrographs � Seymour

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

1230

1240

1250

1260

1270

1280

1290

1300

1310

1320

1330

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Baylor CountyWell 21-30-202

Seymour Formation

Ground Surface

Base of Well

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

1600

1610

1620

1630

1640

1650

1660

1670

1680

1690

1700

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Haskell CountyWell 21-49-301

Seymour FormationGround Surface

Base of Well

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

1400

1410

1420

1430

1440

1450

1460

1470

1480

1490

1500

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Knox CountyWell 21-35-301

Seymour Formation Ground Surface

Base of Well

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

1470

1480

1490

1500

1510

1520

1530

1540

1550

1560

1570

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Haskell CountyWell 21-34-902

Seymour Formation Ground Surface

Base of Well

Cyclic Stable

Increasing Decreasing

Example Hydrographs - Blaine

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

1550

1560

1570

1580

1590

1600

1610

1620

1630

1640

1650

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

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)

Childress CountyWell 12-40-701Blaine Gypsum

Large Change

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

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)

Collingsworth CountyWell 5-62-702

Blaine Gypsum

Small Change

Hydraulic Conductivity - Seymour

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Model Boundary

State Line

County BoundariesÎ SC data from TCEQ") Storage data from County Reports

SC data from County Reports# T data from County Reports

Field K data from County Reports

0 10 20

Miles

File

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mxd

Source:

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

Data Locations

10 - 30

30 - 100

100 - 300

300 - 1000

HydraulicConductivity

(ft/day)

0 10 20

Miles

Data Sources Hydraulic Conductivity Values

Hydraulic Conductivity - Permian

File

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Source:

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

Blaine Downdip

Wichita

Clear Fork

Quartermaster

Blaine Outcrop

Ogallala

Pease River

Whitehorse

0 10 20

Miles

File

: SE

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Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

Blaine Outline

0.01 - 0.03

0.03 - 0.1

0.1 - 0.3

0.3 - 1

1 - 3

3 - 10

1- 30

30 - 100

100 - 300

HydraulicConductivity

(ft/d)

0 10 20

Miles

Blaine Data Sources & Values Hydraulic Conductivity Values

2.6 ft/d2.6 ft/d

9.2 ft/d

9.2 ft/d

3.2 ft/d

3.1 ft/d

14.8 ft/d

Recharge Estimates

Numerical model calibration parameter

Runkle and McLean (1995)1.5Blaine

Greer, Harmon, Jackson counties, OK and Childress, Collingsworth, Hardeman counties, TX

Water budgetMuller and Price (1979)1.1 to 1.5*BlaineGreer and Jackson

counties, OK

Unsaturated flow modelin

Scanlon et al. (2003)0.28SeymourFisher/Jones counites

Field studyScanlon et al. (2003)0.20 to 1.18SeymourHaskell County

Baseflowdischarge

Willis and Knowles (1953)2.5SeymourWilbarger County

BaseflowdischargePrice (1978)1.8SeymourJones County

BaseflowdischargePreston (1978)2.6SeymourBaylor County

Darcy�s LawMaderak (1972)1.0SeymourHardeman County

Water budgetR.W. Harden & Associates (1978)2.2SeymourHaskell and Knox Counties

TechniqueReferenceRecharge (in/yr)AquiferCounty/Area

Natural Aquifer Discharge

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8085500

8085000

8084800

8084000

8083480

8083400

8083245

8083100

8082700

8082500

8082180

8082100

80815008080950

80805008080000

8079600

731270073125007312200

73121107311900

73118007311783

73117007311630

7311600

7308200

7308000

73078007307500

7303500

7303400

7301500

7301481

7301420

73013007301200

7301110

7301100

73005307300500

7300000

7299890

7299850

7299710

7299670

7299540

7299300

7299000

808347080834308083420

8083300

8083240

80820008081200

8081000

731540073121307312100

7311790

7311782

7311780

73116487311622

73085007307760

73077507307600

7303420

7303000

7302000

7300580

7299570

7299530

7299514

72995127299500

72992007298500

File

: SE

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low

Source: USGS website: March, 2003

Model Boundary

County Boundaries

State Line

Streams & Rivers

Lakes & Reservoirs

Seymour Aquifer

0 10 20

Miles

Average FlowRates (cfs)

$ 1 - 10" 10 - 100# 100 - 1000! 1000 - 3000

File

: SE

Y_4

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_Spr

ings

.mxd

Source:

0 10 20

Miles

Streams

Model Boundary

State LineStreams & Rivers

Lakes & Reservoirs

County Boundaries

Seymour Aquifer

SpringLocations& Source

Brune

USGS

TWDB

Springs

Aquifer Discharge Through Pumping

! Point Source Data� Municipal, power, mining, manufacturing

! Non-Point Source Data� Irrigation, livestock, county-other (domestic)

! Steady State (approx. 1967-1970)� Literature sources or assumed to be the same as

1980 historical pumpage! Historical (1980-1997)

� TWDB water use survey database! Predictive (2000-2050)

� TWDB estimates based on projected water demand reported by RWPGs

Total Pumpage - Seymour

County SS 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Archer 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Baylor 4,385 6,947 2,514 1,806 1,695 1,536 1,440 1,392 1,353 Briscoe 2 2 2 4,063 4,063 4,063 1,821 1,821 1,821 Childress 41 10,041 5,876 64 65 70 71 72 73 Clay 424 462 580 803 745 722 714 721 723 Collingsworth 10,650 3,057 16,950 14,135 14,124 14,125 14,120 14,112 14,110 Fisher 1,076 2,151 2,203 3,325 3,195 3,228 3,139 3,074 3,028 Foard 2,573 5,103 3,663 5,025 4,875 4,730 4,590 4,455 4,321 Hall 9,734 21,690 12,755 8,317 8,302 8,288 8,276 8,269 8,266 Hardeman 4,640 3,416 2,481 401 395 392 388 385 383 Haskell 21,911 39,297 22,210 21,972 21,281 20,647 20,032 19,437 18,870 Jones 1,767 2,212 2,257 4,045 3,888 3,767 3,658 3,560 3,470 Kent 687 527 770 1,625 1,212 999 875 786 725 Knox 18,384 50,235 32,547 26,247 26,242 26,285 26,289 25,650 25,035 Motley 1,598 3,454 3,776 2,065 2,003 1,943 1,885 1,828 1,774 Stonewall 322 363 353 1,258 1,189 1,109 1,035 967 935 Taylor 17 17 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 Throckmorton 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wichita 1,755 1,756 1,716 1,873 2,058 2,070 2,085 2,099 2,096 Wilbarger 6,192 26,589 19,543 23,349 22,806 22,281 21,823 21,374 20,989 Young 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 86,164 177,324 130,213 120,373 118,138 116,255 112,241 110,002 107,972

All withdrawals rounded to the nearest 1 AFY.


Total Pumpage - Blaine

County SS 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Childress 7,858 108 92 3,755 3,743 3,740 3,737 3,735 3,734

Collingsworth 9,332 2,906 4,126 4,532 4,524 4,511 4,505 4,499 4,494

Cottle 5,550 86 60 4,782 4,630 4,477 4,334 4,188 4,047

Foard 120 10 18 25 24 24 23 22 22

Hall 21 21 12 28 25 22 19 17 15

Hardeman 6,014 6,582 4,896 4,841 4,696 4,559 4,423 4,292 4,165

King 528 528 79 344 341 339 337 336 335

Knox 2 2 0 1,333 1,333 1,333 1,333 1,300 1,268

Wheeler 1,478 1,478 749 50 48 48 48 47 49

Total 30,903 11,721 10,032 19,690 19,364 19,053 18,759 18,436 18,129


Uses of Water (%) � 1980-1999 Average

4 %1.6 %Rural Domestic

1 %0.4 %Livestock

00Power

00Mining

00Manufacturing

05 %Municipal

95 %93 %Irrigation

BlaineSeymourWater Use Category

Model Implementation

GradyCaddo

Kiowa

Carter

Tillman

Garvin

Greer

Washita

Love

ComancheJackson

Cotton

Stephens

Beckham

Jefferson

McClain

Harmon

Cleveland

Murray

Canadian

Clay

Hall

Hill

King

Erath

JackKent

Wise

Coke

Knox

Jones

Nolan

Cottle

Brown

Motley

Taylor

Young

Mills

Fisher

Coleman

ArcherBaylor

ParkerScurry

Donley

BosqueRunnels

Tarrant

Haskell

Foard

Cooke

Mitchell

Dickens

Sterling

Eastland

Gray

Wilbarger

Callahan

Stephens

Montague

Stonewall

Palo Pinto

Hamilton

Denton

Comanche

Johnson

Wichita

Coryell

Hood

Floyd

ChildressBriscoe

Shackelford

Tom GreenIrion

McLennan

Collingsworth

Hardeman

ThrockmortonGarza

Wheeler

Crosby

Concho

Carson

Somervell

Ellis

McCullochSan Saba

Lampasas Falls

File

: SE

Y_6

.2.1

_Mod

elG

rid.m

xd

State Line

County Boundaries

Model BoundaryModel Grid

Foard County0 10 20

Miles

Model Grid

1 square mile grid blocks180 columns and 208 rows3,436 active cells in layer 120,001 active cells in layer 2

Recharge

Miles

0 10 20

Recharge(in/yr)

0 to 11 to 22 to 33 to 55 to 7

7 to 10Model BoundaryCounty BoundariesSeymour Model BoundaryBlaine Model Boundary

Model Input

!Hydrostratigraphic Surfaces for Each Layer

!Hydraulic Properties� Hydraulic Conductivity� Storativity (transient model only)

!Recharge!Stream Flow!Pumpage!Reservoir Stages

Model Evaluation

!Model results compared to observed data� Observed water levels� Stream flow

!Model results evaluated against literature data� Recharge

!Model results evaluated against conceptual model

Steady-State Model

Steady-State Model

! The model was calibrated to a time period during which the aquifer was at near steady-state conditions.

! Simulated water levels were compared to observed water levels during the steady-state period.

! The residuals between observed and simulated water levels were calculated.

! Parameters were modified to minimize residuals.! Represents a first estimate of aquifer

parameters.

Transient Model Results

Transient Target Locations

0 10 20

Miles

Model BoundaryCounty BoundariesSeymour Aquifer BoundariesTransient Target Location (130)Verification Target Location (104) 0 10 20

Miles

Model BoundaryCounty BoundariesBlaine OutcropBlaine DowndipTransient Target Location (62)Verification Target Location (54)

Seymour Blaine

Average Residuals - Calibration

Miles

0 10 20

AverageResidual

(feet)

Model BoundaryCounty BoundariesSeymour Model Boundary

-65 to -40-40 to -30-30 to -20-20 to -10-10 to -5-5 to -1-1 to 11 to 55 to 10

10 to 2020 to 3030 to 4040 to 65

Miles

0 10 20

AverageResidual

(feet)

Model BoundaryCounty BoundariesBlaine Model Boundary

-65 to -40-40 to -30-30 to -20-20 to -10-10 to -5-5 to -1-1 to 11 to 55 to 1010 to 2020 to 3030 to 4040 to 65

Seymour Blaine

Calibration Water-Level Comparison -Seymour

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400Observed Water-Level Elevation (feet)

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

Sim

ulat

ed W

ater

-Lev

el E

leva

tion

(feet

)

pod 1pod 2pod 3pod 4pod 5pod 7pod 8pod 9pod 13

0.01 ftAdjusted RMS1486 ftObserved Head Range16.2 ftTotal RMS13.3 ftAbsolute Residual Mean4.8 ftResidual Mean

41.2 ftMaximum Residual-52.5 ftMinimum Residual

1004Number of Targets

Calibration Water-Level Comparison -Blaine

1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300Observed Water-Level Elevation (feet)

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

Sim

ulat

ed W

ater

-Lev

el E

leva

tion

(feet

)

0.02 ftAdjusted RMS956 ftObserved Head Range

22.7 ftTotal RMS19.1 ftAbsolute Residual Mean5.5 ftResidual Mean

66.8 ftMaximum Residual-66.4 ftMinimum Residual

737Number of Targets

Selected Hydrographs - SeymourCollingsworth 1216502

1858

1868

1878

1888

1898

1908

1918

1928

1938

1948

1958

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hall 1229511

1751

1761

1771

1781

1791

1801

1811

1821

1831

1841

1851

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Collingsworth 1206401

2118

2128

2138

2148

2158

2168

2178

2188

2198

2208

2218

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Pods 1 and 2

Hall 1229403

1787

1797

1807

1817

1827

1837

1847

1857

1867

1877

1887

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Selected Hydrographs - SeymourWilbarger

1280

1290

1300

1310

1320

1330

1340

1350

1360

1370

1380

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

model

1346209

13465041346505

Wilbarger 1338701

1277

1287

1297

1307

1317

1327

1337

1347

1357

1367

1377

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Childress 1232901

1615

1625

1635

1645

1655

1665

1675

1685

1695

1705

1715

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hardeman 1353102

1331

1341

1351

1361

1371

1381

1391

1401

1411

1421

1431

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Foard 1360611

1234

1244

1254

1264

1274

1284

1294

1304

1314

1324

1334

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Wilbarger 1362115

1197

1207

1217

1227

1237

1247

1257

1267

1277

1287

1297

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Pod 4

Selected Hydrographs - SeymourBaylor 2122703

1264

1274

1284

1294

1304

1314

1324

1334

1344

1354

1364

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Knox 2136201

1372

1382

1392

1402

1412

1422

1432

1442

1452

1462

1472

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Pod 7

Haskell 2135702

1467

1477

1487

1497

1507

1517

1527

1537

1547

1557

1567

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Knox 2135602

1412

1422

1432

1442

1452

1462

1472

1482

1492

1502

1512

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Haskell

1530

1540

1550

1560

1570

1580

1590

1600

1610

1620

1630

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

model

2142104

2142402

Haskell

1530

1540

1550

1560

1570

1580

1590

1600

1610

1620

1630

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

model2151702

2151710

Selected Hydrographs - SeymourJones 3019405

1611

1621

1631

1641

1651

1661

1671

1681

1691

1701

1711

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Jones 3018510

1674

1684

1694

1704

1714

1724

1734

1744

1754

1764

1774

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Jones 2924310

1766

1776

1786

1796

1806

1816

1826

1836

1846

1856

1866

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Jones 3018428

1677

1687

1697

1707

1717

1727

1737

1747

1757

1767

1777

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Jones 3018502

1618

1628

1638

1648

1658

1668

1678

1688

1698

1708

1718

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

()

Jones 3018702

1618

1628

1638

1648

1658

1668

1678

1688

1698

1708

1718

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

()

Pod 13

Selected Hydrographs - BlaineOklahoma 344220099355501

1397

1417

1437

1457

1477

1497

1517

1537

1557

1577

1597

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hardeman 1334802

1383

1403

1423

1443

1463

1483

1503

1523

1543

1563

1583

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hardeman 1342806

1418

1438

1458

1478

1498

1518

1538

1558

1578

1598

1618

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Childress 1224307

1494

1514

1534

1554

1574

1594

1614

1634

1654

1674

1694

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Childress 1240701

1516

1536

1556

1576

1596

1616

1636

1656

1676

1696

1716

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Cottle 2206905

1586

1606

1626

1646

1666

1686

1706

1726

1746

1766

1786

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hydrograph Sensitivities - Seymourmeasuredfactor = 0.8factor � 1.0factor = 1.2


2118

2128

2138

2148

2158

2168

2178

2188

2198

2208

2218

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)


2118

2128

2138

2148

2158

2168

2178

2188

2198

2208

2218

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)


2118

2128

2138

2148

2158

2168

2178

2188

2198

2208

2218

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Sensitivity toPumping

Sensitivity toKh

Sensitivity toRecharge

Knox 2135602

1412

1422

1432

1442

1452

1462

1472

1482

1492

1502

1512

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Knox 2135602

1412

1422

1432

1442

1452

1462

1472

1482

1492

1502

1512

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Knox 2135602

1412

1422

1432

1442

1452

1462

1472

1482

1492

1502

1512

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Drought of Record

Precipitation Gage Locations419662 348652

342849 342039 345329345648

347952 342125415770 418236 342944

341504347565

343281340224

349668 344204 348016411761 349212 340260345509 340184

419565 347727

415821 349629340188411057 344249 348299

345581345068343998340179411697

340466

342668418833418323 342836 341706

411698348879

419191 343353 349278

343709416433413196 419935 349399347403 349395419346 413831411995 411236 411659

416743 412818415658412142

419729413841 419727417663

416745

413215

416742

414093412633

412621 419163 414982

418139414978

413828

412448

418221

417060 417769412121 410313

417572418468

418566419711 416331416146 416641 410271414852

416148 416636

419016414570 414517413994

419014413992410394

413668414967 413995

419893

418584

417205413890417782410268

417678418433 410120416494

419154418939

418789

415358410016 410478

417327414974 410013

416385

341927

418235 346035

345063

411696411694417361

417336

411701

416740

419732419730

414471 419723415086

411622

417499410558417552

410708

410556

416615410704

419013

417146

418583

414026

419853419122

417743411903

File

: SE

Y_2

.13_

Prec

ipita

tion_

Gag

es.m

xd

Source: Online: National Climatic Data Center

0 10 20

Miles

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

Seymour Aquifer

Precipitation Gage123456

Standardized Precipitation Index �Individual Gages

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Wichita CountyGage 412818

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Hardeman CountyGage 417336

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Hall CountyGage 415821

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Baylor CountyGage 418221

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Haskell CountyGage 413992

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Wat

er-L

evel

Ele

vatio

n (ft

)

Cottle CountyGage 416740

Predictive Model Results

Predicted Water-Level Differences - SeymourFi

le: S

EY

_Wat

erLe

velC

ompa

re_2

010.

mxd

0 10 20

Miles

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries

Head Difference (ft)

-50 to -30

-30 to -20

-20 to -10

-10 to -5

-5 to 0

0 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 20

20 to 30

30 to 50

2000 and 2010 2000 and 2030 2000 and 2050


-10 to -6

-6 to -4

-4 to -2

-2 to -1

-1 to 0

0 to 1

0 to 2

2 to 4

4 to 6

6 to 10

File

: SE

Y_W

ater

Leve

lCom

pare

_205

0.m

xd

0 10 20

Miles

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries


-50 to -30

-30 to -20

-20 to -10

-10 to -5

-5 to 0

0 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 20

20 to 30

30 to 50

File

: SE

Y_W

ater

Leve

lCom

pare

_203

0.m

xd

0 10 20

Miles

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries


-50 to -30

-30 to -20

-20 to -10

-10 to -5

-5 to 0

0 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 20

20 to 30

30 to 50

Drought and Average Differences 2050

File

: SE

Y_D

OR

Com

pare

_205

0.m

xd

0 10 20

Miles

Model Boundary

State Line

County Boundaries


-10 to -6

-6 to -4

-4 to -2

-2 to -1

-1 to 0

0 to 1

0 to 2

2 to 4

4 to 6

6 to 10

Predicted Hydrographs � Seymour


2118

2128

2138

2148

2158

2168

2178

2188

2198

2208

2218

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hall 1229511

1751

1761

1771

1781

1791

1801

1811

1821

1831

1841

1851

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hall 1241302

2272

2282

2292

2302

2312

2322

2332

2342

2352

2362

2372

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Wilbarger

1314

1324

1334

1344

1354

1364

1374

1384

1394

1404

1414

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

model

1345603

1345605Pods 1, 2, 3, and 4

Hardeman 1352605

1385

1395

1405

1415

1425

1435

1445

1455

1465

1475

1485

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Wilbarger 1362115

1197

1207

1217

1227

1237

1247

1257

1267

1277

1287

1297

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)


Knox 2136201

1372

1382

1392

1402

1412

1422

1432

1442

1452

1462

1472

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Haskell 2142401

1535

1545

1555

1565

1575

1585

1595

1605

1615

1625

1635

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Haskell

1526

1536

1546

1556

1566

1576

1586

1596

1606

1616

1626

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

model

2151702

2151710

Clay 1463301

832

842

852

862

872

882

892

902

912

922

932

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Pods 5, 7, and 8

Baylor 2122703

1264

1274

1284

1294

1304

1314

1324

1334

1344

1354

1364

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Throckmorton 2140806

1129

1139

1149

1159

1169

1179

1189

1199

1209

1219

1229

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)


Kent

1873

1883

1893

1903

1913

1923

1933

1943

1953

1963

1973

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

model

2252107

2252110

Fisher 2907501

1705

1715

1725

1735

1745

1755

1765

1775

1785

1795

1805

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Jones 2924310

1766

1776

1786

1796

1806

1816

1826

1836

1846

1856

1866

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Pods 9, 11 and 13

Jones 3018428

1677

1687

1697

1707

1717

1727

1737

1747

1757

1767

1777

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Jones 3019702

1589

1599

1609

1619

1629

1639

1649

1659

1669

1679

1689

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Predicted Hydrographs � Blaine

Cottle 2206905

1586

1606

1626

1646

1666

1686

1706

1726

1746

1766

1786

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Childress 1240701

1516

1536

1556

1576

1596

1616

1636

1656

1676

1696

1716

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Childress 1224307

1550

1570

1590

1610

1630

1650

1670

1690

1710

1730

1750

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Oklahoma 344220099355501

1397

1417

1437

1457

1477

1497

1517

1537

1557

1577

1597

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hardeman 1334802

1383

1403

1423

1443

1463

1483

1503

1523

1543

1563

1583

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Hardeman 1342806

1418

1438

1458

1478

1498

1518

1538

1558

1578

1598

1618

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Hea

d (f

t)

Conclusions

Conclusions

!Steady-state model� Reproduces steady-state heads within GAM

criteria and uncertainty of head estimates� Average recharge rate of 0.6 in/yr, with an

average rate of 2 in/yr applied to the Seymour� Aquifer inflow - 94% from recharge� Aquifer outflow � 48% to streams, 31% to ET,

and 19% to pumping� Most sensitive parameters are recharge,

stream conductance, and horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the Permian (layer 2)

Conclusions (continued)

!Transient model� Reproduces transient heads within GAM

criteria and uncertainty of head estimates� Aquifer inflow - 94% from recharge� Aquifer outflow � 35% to streams, 20% to ET,

and 20% to pumping� Most sensitive parameters are recharge and

pumping

Conclusions (continued)

!Predictions� Average increase of 1.6 feet in the Seymour

aquifer between 2000 and 2050� Average decline of 0.6 feet in the Permian

between 2000 and 2050� DOR heads an average of 1.1 feet lower than

average-condition heads in Seymour� DOR heads an average of 1.7 feet lower than

average-condition heads in the Permian

Model Limitations and Future Improvements

Model Limitations

!Limitations of supporting data� Hydraulic head in select Seymour pods� Stream/aquifer gain loss estimates� Blaine structural data� Hydraulic property data for the Permian

!Assumptions� No-flow boundaries in layer 2� Spatial variation in recharge� Temporal variation in recharge� Maximum ET and extinction depth

Model Limitations (continued)

!Model applicability� Regional scale

" The Seymour aquifer is not regionally connected but rather consists of small isolated pods.

� Grid-block size" The size of the pods is small relative to the grid-

block size of 1 square mile.� Structure

" Thin nature of aquifer results in significant impact on simulated water level with small errors in structure (1-mile averaging) and /or observed water levels.

Model Limitations (continued)

!Model applicability� Pumping for steady-state

"Small errors in pumping in the steady-state model will impact the steady-state solution.

� Surface water/groundwater coupling" The model does not provide a rigorous solution to

surface water modeling.� Water-quality issues

"Only a preliminary assessment of water quality is conducted for the GAMs.

Future Improvements

!Additional supporting data� Water-level monitoring in pods with sparse

measurements� Recharge studies� Surface water/groundwater studies� Stream gaging data� Horizontal hydraulic conductivity in Seymour

and Permian� Accurate location of base of Seymour

Future Implementation Improvements

!Consider each pod individually� this would result in more accurate simulation

of aquifer dynamics at the pod scale!Refine gridding based on

� the size of the pod being modeled� hydraulic stresses in the pod being modeled� the ultimate goal of the model

GAM Schedule! Project start � November 2002! Draft conceptual model � August 15, 2003*! Draft conceptual model report � August 31, 2003! Steady-state model calibration � November 25, 2003*! Transient calibration & verification � January 30, 2004*! Predictions � February 13, 2004*! Draft Model Report to TWDB � March 1, 2004! Public feedback on Draft Report � April 9, 2004! TWDB feedback on Draft Report � April 30, 2004*! Model Training Seminar � May 2004! Final Model Report to TWDB � June 30, 2004Note: * means technical review meeting scheduled with the

TWDB

Seymour GAM SAF 4 � April 1, 2004 Attendance List

Name Affiliation H. L. Ayers Tri Co GWD Johnny Kaja Tri Co GWD Nancy Johnson WPRC Curtis W. Campbell Red River Authority Ray Brady Panhandle GWCD Thomas L. Powell Collingsworth County UWCD Cindy Ridgeway TWDB Don A. Butler NRCS Board Member Mike McGuire RPGCD Larry Lundstrom City of Electra David Meesey TWDB Andrew Chastain-Howley WRPC John Ewing Intera

Summary Memorandum ReportSeymour Aquifer GAM

Stakeholders Advisory Forum #4, Seymour, TexasApril 1, 2004

PRESENTATION

The fourth Stakeholder Advisory Forum was held on Thursday, April 1, 2004 at 1.30 p.m. at the Portwood Arts and Civic Center, 800 Morris Street in Seymour, Texas.

The presentation topics for this forum included:1) Aquifer Review 7) Transient Model Results2) Draft Report Overview 8) Drought of Record3) Model Design 9) Predictive Model Results4) Conceptual Model 10) Conclusions5) Model Implementation 11) Model Limitations and Future Improvements6) Steady-State Model 12) GAM Schedule

A summary of questions, answers and other discussion is listed below.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Q: Tommy Powell: Why is the projected total pumping reducing over time? We have noticed that pumping has increased between 2000 and 2004 and so it is likely to continue this upward trend.A: John Ewing and Cindy Ridgeway: The data is taken from the Regional water planning Group reports from 2002. Either the assumption is that there is less water available, or the demand is projected to be less.

Info: Tri-County GCD: I have the same question. I think it’s going to be higher, not lower.

Q: City of Electra: Does it relate to population? Or because we don’t have it, so we can’t use it because it’s not there.A: Cindy Ridgeway: It relates to demand. All factors are combined into the projection, including the water not being available.

Info: David Meesey: Also, in this area of Texas and other parts of the state, irrigation has been reduced because in some cases it’s not cost-effective to grow certain crops.

Info: Andrew Chastain-Howley and Cindy Ridgeway: Explained that the model can take changing factors into account; the parameters can be changed. This is especially true of pumping to take into account local variations and scenarios for different development plans.

Info: Tommy Powell: Collingsworth County UWCD will be sending the TWDB some more recent information on pumping in the County.

Info: Tri-County GCD: In the past 2 years we have added a third more wells in Hardeman and Wilbarger Counties. Some of this [increased pumping] is due to the drought.Info: Tommy Powell: In some counties there’s more land in CRP [therefore there is reduced water usage] this is often cyclical due to farm economics.

Info: David Meesey: The pumping projections are based on a lot of external factors. You would want to put in a lot of different scenarios so you can see what would happen and get answers for different scenarios. It’s good to know several different solutions.

Info: Tri-County GCD: If gas prices keep going up you could see crops grown for fuels and pumping would go up.

Q: Curtis Campbell: Can this [the modeling] be done for the different pods separately? Some of the hydrographs are way off.A: John Ewing: Some of it has to do with it being a one-mile grid. It’s hard to predict for one mile due to the topographic and water level variations over this mile. In some cases where there are multiple wells in a grid cell some of the predicted water levels match very closely and others follow a similar trend but are offset from the prediction.

Info: John Ewing, Cindy Ridgeway, Andrew Chastain-Howley: There will be a workshop (probably in May) for stakeholders to teach them how to use the model. It should be noted that this will be a fairly detailed hands-on workshop.

Q: Ray Brady: Can this workshop be done through a weblink at the agricultural extension facility in Lockhart?A: Cindy Ridgeway: I’ll check into it. You need a computer and will need to have the software installed and the model too. If you have the capability for doing it, that can be done. We may have the workshop in Austin so everyone will have a computer.

Q: Curtis Campbell: Will this workshop be open to consultants? A: Cindy Ridgeway: Yes.

Info: Mike McGuire: Most of the regional water planning groups have already set their groundwater availability projections. It may be best to use this as a tool for the next round of planning, and to make sure there are no major problems.

Info: Curtis Campbell: If you’re looking at a specific water problem, this would work.

Q: Mike McGuire: The modeling will probably need to be done on a pod-by-pod basis sooner or later.A: Cindy Ridgeway: It can be run now on a pod-by-pod basis. You can refine the grid as needed. If you have the data, the grid can be refined. Another factor is the size of the pod. However, more detailed data will probably be necessary to significantly refine the grid. The better the data, the better the model will be.

Q: Tri-County GCD: The groundwater availability is very different within areas of pod 4, is this shown in the model?A. John Ewing: It is shown on the hydraulic conductivity graphics and by the number of wells found in the different areas

Info: Cindy Ridgeway: The model should be run by pod and not less than a pod. Whatever is going on in one part will affect the whole pod.

Q: Tri-County GCD: We had a period of high recharge this year and no rain. Where did the water come from? How long does it take for the water to move through the aquifer?A: Cindy Ridgeway and John Ewing: Possibly the water is flowing from upslope. There’s a lag in the recharge to water level rise. An isotope analysis would tell you where your water came from.

Q: Tri-County GCD: Do you do any geophysical work [to determine the structure]?A: Cindy Ridgeway: No, but we’ve used other techniques such as air photos and airborne geophysics for other applications.

Info: Mike McGuire: Talk to Andrew Chastain-Howley about geophysical work and studies.

Prepared by: Andrew Chastain-Howley and Nancy JohnsonDate: April 5, 2004

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