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Precision StrikePrecision StrikeProficiency & SufficiencyProficiency & Sufficiency

Precision Strike Association25 January 2006

Vice Admiral Marty ChanikDirector, J-8, Force Structure, Resources and Assessment Directorate

The Joint Staff

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AgendaAgenda

• Proficiency

• Sufficiency

• Way Ahead

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Joint Operations Concepts

ArchitecturesIllustrative Planning Scenarios

JROC(JCIDS)

PPBS Acquisition

Decision and Action

Validation

AssessmentandAnalysis

Overlay what we have with

what we need• Gap Analysis

• Risk Assessment• Roadmaps

Guidance

JointVisionNSS NMS

Functional ConceptsStudies and Wargames

support task analyses and capability assessments

TaskAnalyses

CapabilityAssessments

CONOPSand

OPLANS

Joint OperatingConcepts

Proficiency and Sufficiency Two Munitions Processes

“WHAT DO WE BUY?”

JCIDS

CJCSI 3170.1E

May 2005

Capability Based

“HOW MUCH OF EACHDO WE BUY?”

PPBES

DoDI 3000.4

October 2003

Scenario Based

JCIDS

Purpose

Driver

Implementing Doc

Date Implemented

Basis

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S T A F FC H I E F S O F

P o lic y/A T + Lg u id a n c e

D IA /C o C o m s/J -8(T arg e t l ists )

S e rv ic e s(M u n itio n rqm ts)

S erv ic es(R is k a s se s sm e n t)

C Y 0 3 C Y 0 4

O S D (P )D P G1 Apr

O S D (P )C P G

1 M ay

A pr M ay Ju lJu n A ug S ep N ovO ct D ec Jan M arF eb Apr M ay Ju lJu n Au g

D IATh reat

R eports1 Ju ly

C oC o mPh ased Th reat

D is t15 S ept(n ear yr)

J-8Ph ased T h reat

D is t1 5 O ct(ou t yr)

S erv icesM un s Rqm ts

15 M ar

S erv icesRis k

A sse ssm en t15 M ay

S ervicesRisk

A s sess m e ntP O M + 10 d ays

A T & LG u idan ce

15 M ay

N ear Year

O u t Y ear

DoD MRP

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PROFICIENCYPROFICIENCY

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S TA FFCH IE FS OF Requirements Generation System (RGS)- ~30 years of experiences

Threat vs Capability Based PlanningThreat vs Capability Based PlanningJoint Capabilities Integration and

Development System (JCIDS)- 2 years old

Late Integration

Joint Capabilities

Strategic Direction

Joint Warfighting ConceptDevelopment

Joint Experimentation, Assessment & Analysis,

Validation, Selection of SolutionsServices Build Systems

COCOMs, Services’ Unique Strategic Visions

Partially Interoperable Capabilities

Service Unique Strategic Visions and Requirements

Service Experimentation, Assessment & Analysis,

Validation, Selection of Solutions

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Strategy Based CapabilitiesStrategy Based Capabilities

National National Security Security StrategyStrategy

National National Defense Defense StrategyStrategy

National National Military Military StrategyStrategy

JointJointOperationsOperationsConceptsConcepts

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• LRIP• FOT&E

• Refined concept

• Analysis of Alternatives

• Technology Development Strategy

• SoS System Engineering

• Affordable military-useful increment

• Technology demonstrated

• Initial KPPs• SEP

MS “B”

• Revise KPPs• Detailed

design• System

integration• DT&E

MS “C”

Acquisition and Test

OSD (AT&L, PA&E), Services and OSD (DOT&E) -- Joint Staff (JROC)

MS “A”

Evolutionary or SpiralDevelopment

Technology Development

System Development Productio

nCDD

CPD

Technology Development

System Development Productio

nCDD

CPD

Analysis of Alternatives

Technology Development

System Development ProductionCDD CPD

• Capabilities• Tasks• Attributes• Metrics

• Gaps• Shortfalls• Redundancies• Risk areas

• Non-materiel solutions

• Materiel solutions

• S+T initiatives• Experimentation

SecDef Joint Staff (OSD)

Functional Area Analysis

*Functional Needs Analysis

*Functional Solutions Analysis

Select a JointIntegrating

Concept

• Strategic Planning Guidance

• Defense Planning Scenarios

• Family of Concepts

• Transforma-tion

oversight

activity

Capability Based Assessment

Policy Capabilities Definition

Develop Concept

COCOM

ICD

Joint Chiefs of Staff & Joint Requirements Oversight Council

OSD (AT&L)

COCOMs

USMC

Army

Navy

Air Force

DIA

OSD (NII)

OSD (PA&E)

FCBJoint Staff / OSD

Capabilities Based AssessmentCapabilities Based Assessment

Concept Refinement

20162004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Agile DOD EndAgile DOD End--toto--EndEndConcepts, Capabilities, and Acquisition ProcessConcepts, Capabilities, and Acquisition Process

• LRIP• IOT&E

ConceptDecision

ServicesServicesOSD/JCSOSD/JCS

DAB Capability Area Reviews (CARs)

JCD

Identifying criteria based review for multiple on and off ramps

OSD (AT&L)-Capability Roadmaps

COCOM/Service Near-term Capabilities

As part of the agile processIPLs, LL, GWOT, DCRs, ACTDs

PPBE (PDM, PBD)JRAC

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–Lethal capability in adverse weather

–GPS / INS kit –Smaller weapon for greater loadout capability

–JDAM tail kits–SDB I and SDB II

How It Should Work How It Should Work

ICD

CDDCDD

CPDCPD

CPDCPD

CPDCPD

CBACBA •CBA on Major Combat Operations

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CBP Lessons Learned CBP Lessons Learned

• Capabilities Based Assessments take a long time– New “Users Guide” will help focus efforts and set

terms of reference– Focus efforts toward a solution – fight the urge “to

solve world hunger” • Prioritization of capabilities is the goal

– Use Joint Capability Areas to help refine our thinking

– Focus JROC attention on major issues• KPPs

– Criteria for selection– Cost drivers for each

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Tier 1 JCAs Tier 1 JCAs

• Joint Force Generation

• Joint Force Management

• Joint Battlespace Awareness

• Joint C2

• Joint Net-Centric Operations

• Joint Public Affairs Operations

• Joint Interagency / IGO/ NGO/ Coordination

• Joint Protection

• Joint Logistics

• Defense Support of Civil Authorities

• Joint Homeland Defense

• Joint Global Deterrence

• Joint Shaping

• Joint Stability Operations

• Joint Information Operations

• Joint Access & Access Denial

• Joint Special Operations & Irregular Operations

• Joint Land Operations

• Joint Maritime /Littoral Operations

• Joint Air Operations

• Joint Space Operations

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• Joint Access & Access Denial– Forcible Entry, LOC Protection, Contingency Basing,

Seabasing, Freedom of Navigation, Blockade• Joint Land Operations

– Op Movement and Maneuver, Joint Fires, Decisive Maneuver, Security

• Joint Maritime/Littoral Operations– Surface Warfare, Undersea Warfare, Maritime Interdiction,

Maritime Expeditionary Ops, Maritime Fires, Observe & Collection, Theater Air & Missile Defense

• Joint Air Operations– Offensive Counter Air Ops, Strategic Attack, Air Interdiction,

Tactical Air Support, Theater Air & Missile Defense, Battlefield Deconfliction

Tier 2 JCAs Tier 2 JCAs

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Success Stories Success Stories

• Joint Undersea Superiority– First ICD on MCM staffing complete, headed to

FCB– Additional ICD for ASW in work

• The Global Strike Raid Scenario CBA– FNA complete– FSA in work; coordinating with Prompt Global

Strike and other efforts

• Sea-basing and JC2 CBAs ongoing

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Joint Effects Targeting System (JETS) is a single joint targeting system designed to replace 20+ stove-piped and non-interoperable targeting systems.

• Joint Integrated Product Team – Stove-piped efforts addressed similar issues.– Nearly identical capability requirements

• JCIDS “CBA” resulted in approved ICD. Single Joint solution found to be best alternative.

Success Stories Success Stories -- JETSJETS

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SUFFICIENCYSUFFICIENCY

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• Combat Requirement• Strategic Readiness Requirement• Current Operations/Forward

Presence Requirement• Test & Training Requirement

• Combat Requirement• Strategic Readiness Requirement• Current Operations/Forward

Presence Requirement• Test & Training Requirement

Maneuver ForcesAirMaritimeIADSInfrastructureStrategic

Maneuver ForcesAirMaritimeIADSInfrastructureStrategic

ServicesServices

CoCOMCoCOM

Threat Report

DIADIA

NNORNCAAQWARRM

NNORNCAAQWARRM

Total Munitions Requirement ServiceProcesses

AlliesSOCOM

USMC (Air& Ground)USA

USNUSAF

Phase I: w%Phase II: x%Phase III: y% Phase IV: z%

Phased Threat Distribution

Munitions Requirement ProcessMunitions Requirement Process

J8 WADJ8 WAD

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• Strategy is still the driving force, but…• Challenge is determining the right mix:

– Surge Capability– Shelf life– Demil/Surveillance– Risk/Budget– Industrial base

• Weapons must be agile across scenarios• Discipline/Rigor accomplished by aligning with

the analytic agenda

MRP Vision for the FutureMRP Vision for the Future

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• Proficiency– JCIDS Process is Evolving

• Reducing Cycle Time• CBA Standards Developing• Gap Analysis for Capabilities

Way AheadWay Ahead

GOAL: Prioritization of Joint CapabilitiesGOAL: Prioritization of Joint CapabilitiesGOAL: Prioritization of Joint Capabilities

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• Sufficiency– MRP vastly improved in the past two

years– COCOMs, Services, Joint Staff, and

OSD involved

Way AheadWay Ahead

GOAL: ID Requirements (Qty); Balance Acceptable Operational Risk with the Industrial Base

GOAL: ID Requirements (Qty); Balance GOAL: ID Requirements (Qty); Balance Acceptable Operational Risk with the Acceptable Operational Risk with the Industrial Base Industrial Base

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