nmistakable signs of agri food systems …...7 unmistakable signs of agri-food system transformation...
TRANSCRIPT
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T.S.JayneandHolgerKray
SeminaratMinistryofAgriculture,GovernmentofTanzania
10April2018Dodoma,Tanzania
UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOODSYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
6. Greatervibrancyofagriculturalfactorsmarkets
7. ImprovedmarketaccessconditionsforAfricanfarmers
2
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
3
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• 35%growthininflation-adjustedrealp.c.incomesinSSA,2000-2014
– Doubling inmanycountries
• Povertyratesfallingfortheregion
– %ofpeoplelivingonlessthan$1.90adaydeclinedfrom54%in
1990to41%in2013(Barrettetal.,2017)
4
RISINGREALINCOMES
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
5
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Annualinflation-adjustedagriculturalgrowthrates,2000-2016:
• Sub-SaharanAfrica: +4.62%
– Tanzania: +3.50%
• EastAsia: +3.07%
• SouthAsia: +2.96%
• LatinAmerica: +2.49%
• World: +2.75%
6
IMPRESSIVEAGRICULTURALGROWTH
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AGRICULTURALVALUEADDEDANNUALGROWTHRATES2000-2016(constantlocalcurrencyunits)
Ethiopia Nigeria Rwanda Moz'bique Mali Tanzania Kenya Malawi Zambia%growth 6.2 5.91 5.47 4.72 4.55 3.5 3.07 1.89 -0.92
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
7Source: World Development Indicators, 2017
%growthra
te
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8Source:IFADRuralDevelopmentReport,2016;WorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase,2016.
RELATIONSHIPBETWEENAGRICULTURALGROWTHANDPOVERTYREDUCTION
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
9
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Farmsize Numberoffarms(%oftotal)%growthin
numberoffarmsbetweeninitialand
latestyear
%oftotaloperatedlandonfarmsbetween0-100
ha
2008 2012 2008 2012
0– 5ha 5,454,961(92.8) 6,151,035(91.4) 12.8 62.4 56.3
5– 10ha 300,511(5.1) 406,947(6.0) 35.4 15.9 18.0
10– 20ha 77,668(1.3) 109,960(1.6) 41.6 7.9 9.7
20– 100ha 45,700(0.7) 64,588(0.9) 41.3 13.8 16.0
Total 5,878,840(100%) 6,732,530(100%) 14.5 100.0 100.0
- 6.1%
+6.1%
CHANGESINFARMSTRUCTUREINTANZANIA(2008-2012)LSMS/NATIONALPANELSURVEYS
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Source:GhanaGLSSSurveys,1992,2013
GhanaNumberoffarms %growthinnumber
offarms %oftotalcultivatedarea
1992 2013 1992 2013
0-2ha 1,458,540 1,582,034 8.5 25.1 14.2
2-5ha 578,890 998,651 72.5 35.6 31.3
5-10ha 116,800 320,411 174.3 17.2 22.8
10-20ha 38,690 117,722 204.3 11.0 16.1
20-100ha 18,980 37,421 97.2 11.1 12.2
>100ha -- 1,740 - -- 3.5
Total 2,211,900 3,057,978 38.3 100 100
51%oftotalfarm-land
CHANGESINFARMSTRUCTUREINGHANA(1992-2013)
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12Source:NPS2009,2011,2013,2015
MEDIUMSCALEFARMS’SHAREOFTOTALCROPVALUEINTANZANIA–14%TO30%IN6YEARS
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
13
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• 8-fold increase in the volumes and value of food marketed
through rural-to-urban value chains since 2000 (Tschirley et al,
2017)
• Underlying drivers:
– rapidly rising urban demand
– high global food prices
– agricultural sectoral reforms of 1990s
14
RAPIDINVESTMENTINAGRICULTURALVALUECHAINSBYAFRICANENTREPRENEURS
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
15
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RAPIDDECLINEINSHAREOFLABORFORCEINFARMING(INFULL-TIMEEQUVALENTS)
Source:Yeboah andJayne(2018)
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Source:Yeboah andJayne(2018)
FARMINGISTHESINGLELARGESTEMPLOYERINMOSTCOUNTRIESDESPITEDECLININGJOBSHARE
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18
010
2030
4050
6070
8090
Sha
re in
tota
l em
ploy
men
t (%
)
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5
Log of GDP per Capita (2010 US dollar)
Botswana Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Malawi MauritiusNigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Zambia
Agriculture
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19
010
2030
4050
6070
Sha
re in
tota
l em
ploy
men
t (%
)
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5
Log GDP per Capita (2010 US dollar)
Botswana Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Malawi MauritiusNigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Zambia
Services
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20
05
1015
2025
30
Sha
re o
f tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent (
%)
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5
Log GDP per Capita (2010 US dollar)
Botswana Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Malawi MauritiusNigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Zambia
Manufacturing
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Source:YeboahandJayne(2018)
MAJORITYOFOFF-FARMAGRI-FOODSYSTEMJOBSINCOMMERCE,MUCHLESSINAGRO-PROCESSING
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
6. Greatervibrancyofagriculturalfactorsmarkets
22
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Inherited 33.17%
Gifted 10.33%
Purchased 29.63%
Borrowed 11.09%
Rented 9.63%
Other(squatting/clearedland/allocated) 6.16%
Observations 4,291
Inherited/gifted38.34%
Purchased36.46%
Borrowed6.90%
Rented7.00%
Othermodeofacquisition11.30%
PERCENTOFTOTALFARMLANDAREA
Source:LSMS/NationalPanelSurvey2014/15
PERCENTOFPLOTS
23
MODEOFACQUISITIONOFALLFARMPLOTSINTANZANIA
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24
Source:VanderWesthuisenetal,2018,basedonTradeMapdatabase
NOMINALVALUEOFTRACTORIMPORTSTOSUB-SAHARANAFRICA(EXCL.SOUTHAFRICA),2001-2015
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25Source:VanderWesthuisen,2018,basedonLSMS/NPSsurveys
%OFFARMHOUSEHOLDSRENTINGTRACTORSERVICESINTANZANIA,2009VS2015
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26Source:LSMS2009,2011,2013,2015
MEANLANDPRICESINTANZANIA:+53.9%INREALTERMSIN6YEARS
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Sources:LSMS-ISAandIHSforlandandwages;FEWSNETforureaandmaize
OUTPUTANDFACTORPRICEINDICES,RURALMALAWI,2004-2013
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
6. Greatervibrancyofagriculturalfactorsmarkets
7. ImprovedmarketaccessconditionsforAfricanfarmers
28
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Source:SitkoandJayne,2014
FARMERREPORTEDNUMBERSOFTRADERSBUYINGMAIZEINTHEIRVILLAGE,2014
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30Source:ChamberlinandJayne,2012
CHANGEINFARMHOUSEHOLDS’DISTANCETOSERVICESINRURALKENYA,1997-2010
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1. Futureaggrowthneededfromhighervalueperhectareandperlaborer,notjustareaexpansion
31
MAJORCHALLENGESTOBETACKLED
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32
AFRICA’SAGRICULTURALGROWTHSTILLRELIESMAINLYONCROPLANDEXPANSION,NOTENOUGHONPRODUCTIVITYGROWTH
Source:EconomicResearchService,https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity/
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1. Africa’slaborforcediversifyingawayfromsubsistencefarming
2. Shareoflaborforceinnon-farmemploymentupsharplysince2000
3. Governancehasimproved,albeitunevenly.Daysofhyperinflation,blackmarketexchangerates
andmacroturmoillargelyover.
4. GreaterproportionofyoungAfricansacquiringsecondaryanduniversityeducations
5. PercapitaGDPincreasedbetween2000and2014by35%inrealterms.SSAhasbeenworld’s
second-fastestgrowingeconomy,exceededonlybyAsia
6. +4.6%inflation-adjustedp.a.aggrowthbetween2000-2016(WB,2017)vs.worldavg.of2.75%
7. Womenhavebecomeconsiderablymoreactiveinlabormarketsandbetterabletoholdstocksof
wealthontheirown
8. Povertyratesdeclinedsignificantlysince2000
9. Nutritionalindicatorsalsoshowgradualbutclearimprovement
33
SUMMARY:UNMISTAKABLEPROGRESSINSSA
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YOUTHLIVELIHOODSOPTIONS
62%<25years
40%Non-farm
60%Farming
Pulledoutofagriculture• Injobswithhighbarrierstoentry• Post-secondaryeducation• Investedinskills
80%
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YOUTHLIVELIHOODSOPTIONS
62%<25years
40%Non-farm
60%Farming
10%Successfulnon-farm
30%Strugglingnon-farm
10%Successfulfarming
50%Strugglingfarm
70%Successfulnon-farm
30%Successfulfarming
Policies• Inclusiveeconomic
growth• Infrastructure• R&D• Education
– Post-secondary
Policies• R&D/ext.• Landaccess• Finance• Infrastructureand
investmentsalongvaluechain
– Irrigation– Roads– Electricity
STRUCTURALTRANSFORMATIONPATHWAY
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T.S.JayneandHolgerKray
SeminaratMinistryofAgriculture,GovernmentofTanzania
10April2018Dodoma,Tanzania
UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOODSYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA
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37
Source:UN2013
SUBSAHARANAFRICA:ONLYREGIONOFTHEWORLDWHERERURALPOPULATIONCONTINUESTORISEPAST2050
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SSATotalFoodImports from7to40billionUSD(2001-2015)(intraSSAtradefrom1to10billionUSD)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TotalFoodImportsl_SSA
TotalFoodImports_nonSSA
Totalvaluefoodimportsas%valueofdomesticagricultureproduction
Billions of nominal U
SDTo
tal v
alue
food
impo
rts a
s %
of A
frica
n ag
ricul
tura
l pro
duct
ion
valu
e
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39
Source:VanderWesthuisenetal.,2018,basedonNPS/LSMSsurveys
%OFFARMHOUSEHOLDSRENTINGTRACTORSERVICESINTANZANIA,2009VS2015
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40
Distancefromfarmto:
Percentileoffarmhouseholddistribution
Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 95th
-------------- kmdistance--------------
Nearestdistricttown(km)
37.1 6.0 13.0 30.0 58.0 94.0
Pointofmaizesaletotrader(km)
Source:ChapotoandJayne,2014,basedon2014CropForecastSurvey,n=13,859farmhouseholds
MARKETACCESSCONDITIONS,ZAMBIA,2014
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41
Distancefromfarmto:
Percentileoffarmhouseholddistribution
Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 95th
-------------- kmdistance--------------
Nearestdistricttown(km)
37.1 6.0 13.0 30.0 58.0 94.0
Pointofmaizesaletotrader(km)
6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 58.0
Source:ChapotoandJayne,2014,basedon2014CropForecastSurvey,n=13,859farmhouseholds
MARKETACCESSCONDITIONS,ZAMBIA,2014
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1. Futureaggrowthneededfromhighervalueperhectareandperlaborer,notjustareaexpansion
2. Land/soildegradation– willmakecontinuedagriculturaltransformationmoredifficultunless
addressed
• Proximatecauses:lowadoptionof“climatesmart”and“sustainable”landmanagement
practices
• Underlyingculprits– ineffectivenationalagR&Dandextensionsystems
3. The“employmentchallenge”:eachyear,roughly17millionyoungAfricansenterworkingage
42
MAJORCHALLENGESTOBETACKLED
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62%<25yearsold
LOOMINGEMPLOYMENTCHALLENGEINSSA