nj shares 2007 evaluation october 25, 2007. evaluation goals characterize nj shares grant recipients...
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NJ SHARES 2007 Evaluation
October 25, 2007
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Evaluation Goals
• Characterize NJ SHARES grant recipients
• Characterize NJ SHARES grants
• Examine good faith payments
• Analyze post-grant payment compliance
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Evaluation Components
• Part 1 – NJ SHARES database analysis– Characterizes grant recipients– Characterizes grants
• Part 2 – Utility transaction data analysis– “Good Faith” Payment Analysis– Grant Coverage Analysis– Post-Grant Payment Compliance
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Evaluation Components
• Data received from:– Elizabethtown Gas– JCP&L– NJNG– PSE&G– SJG
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis2006 Grant Counts by Utility
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UtilityNumber of
GrantsPercent of All
GrantsGrant Dollars
Percent of Grant Dollars
Atlantic City Electric 822 6% $272,412 3%
Elizabethtown 727 6% $366,773 5%
JCP&L 810 6% $245,546 3%
NJNG 508 4% $283,025 4%
PSE&G 9,369 72% $6,267,774 79%
Rockland 35 <1% $9,947 <1%
SJG 826 6% $448,942 6%
TOTAL 13,097 100% $7,894,419 100%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis Q1 Grant Counts by Type
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Type Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007
Electric Only 268 15% 683 17% 715 19%
Gas Only 287 16% 756 19% 832 22%
Electric & Gas 1,180 66% 2,416 61% 2,031 55%
Electric Heat 45 3% 113 3% 140 4%
TOTAL 1,780 3,968 3,718
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Grant Counts by County
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CountyNumber Served
Percent of Total
CountyNumber Served
Percent of Total
Atlantic 335 2.6% Middlesex 1,241 9.5%
Bergen 643 4.9% Monmouth 466 3.6%
Burlington 520 4.0% Morris 252 1.9%
Camden 906 6.9% Ocean 413 3.2%
Cape May 76 0.6% Passaic 687 5.3%
Cumberland 272 2.0% Salem 67 0.5%
Essex 2,916 22.3% Somerset 376 2.9%
Glouchester 508 3.9% Sussex 55 0.4%
Hudson 1,246 9.5% Union 1,038 7.9%
Hunterdon 14 0.1% Warren 53 0.4%
Mercer 1,013 7.7% TOTAL 13,097 100.0%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis Years Received Grants, 2005-2007
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Number of Years Percent of Grant Recipients
1 Year 87%
2 Years 11%
3 Years 2%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Members Contributing to Income
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Household Members 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
None <1 % 0%
One 75% 73%
Two 22% 24%
Three or More 3% 3%
Mean Number 1.3 1.3
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient Income Sources
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Income Source 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
Employment 88% 89%
Pension or Social Security 12% 12%
Unemployment Compensation 6% 5%
Disability 5% 4%
Child Support 4% 4%
Other 3% 3%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Annual Household Income
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Annual Household Income 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
< $10,000 <1% 0%
$10,000 - $19,999 9% 6%
$20,000 - $29,999 31% 28%
$30,000 - $39,999 28% 29%
$40,000 + 31% 38%
Mean Annual Income $35,942 $38,921
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Poverty Level
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Household Poverty Level 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
<175% 6% 6%
175% - 199% 26% 24%
200% - 249% 32% 32%
250% - 299% 17% 16%
300% + 19% 22%
Mean Poverty Level 251% 257%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Composition
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Household Composition 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
<6 Years Old 29% 26%
≤ 18 Years Old 61% 60%
> 60 Years Old 8% 8%Note: A household can be included in more than one category.
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Composition
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Household Composition 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
Single Parent 14% 13%
Elderly Only 4% 5%Note: “Single Parent” and “Elderly Only” households were identified using the age grouping variables, in the database not the variable “Category”.
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Poverty Level
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Household Poverty Level
Household Composition
2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
All≤ 18 Years
Old> 60 Years
OldAll
≤ 18 Years Old
> 60 Years Old
<175% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5%
175% - 199% 26% 29% 25% 24% 27% 26%
200% - 249% 32% 33% 31% 32% 33% 32%
250% - 299% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%
300% + 19% 15% 21% 22% 16% 21%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Poverty Level
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Household Poverty Level
Household Composition
2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
AllSingle Parent
Elderly Only
AllSingle Parent
Elderly Only
<175% 6% 12% 8% 6% 11% 5%
175% - 199% 26% 35% 25% 24% 34% 26%
200% - 249% 32% 33% 33% 32% 34% 32%
250% - 299% 17% 11% 11% 16% 13% 16%
300% + 19% 9% 22% 22% 8% 21%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient Household Size
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Household Size 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
1 26% 22%
2 30% 30%
3 21% 22%
4 14% 15%
5 + 9% 10%
Mean Size 2.5 2.7
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Main Heating Fuel
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Main Heating Fuel 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
Natural Gas 82% 83%
Electric 13% 11%
Oil 5% 5%
Propane <1% <1%
Other <1% <1%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application
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Reported Bill Balance 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
< $250 8% 8%
$250 - $499 25% 20%
$500 - $749 23% 22%
$750 - $999 16% 15%
$1,000 + 29% 35%
Mean Balance $892 $993
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application
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Bill BalancePercent of Federal Poverty Level
< 175% 175-199% 200-249 % 250-299% 300% +
< $500 32% 29% 28% 27% 25%
$500 - $749 22% 22% 21% 21% 22%
$750 + 46% 49% 50% 52% 52%
Mean Balance $976 $985 $977 $1,003 $1,021
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean 2005-2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application
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Grant Type 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
Electric Only $563 $566
Gas Only $654 $740
Electric & Gas $1,108 $1,268
Electric Heat $831 $823
All Grants $892 $993
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis Collections Actions Pending at Grant Application for 2005-2006 Recipients
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Collections Actions 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
Shut-Off Date Passed 26% 49%
Shut-Off Date Not Passed 20% 22%
Past Due Warning Notice 47% 18%
Utility Shut-Off 0% 9%
Past Due Balance 8% 3%Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% because a household with grants for more than one utility may have two different collections actions.
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Reason for Grant Application
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Reason for Application 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
Temporary Financial Crisis 60% 68%
High Energy Costs 27% 24%
Medical/Health 7% 5%
Unemployment 3% 2%
Other 3% 2%
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis Detailed 2006 Recipient “Other” Reasons for Grant Application
– Household changes (spouse leaving or dying or a new baby in the home)
– Meter read after months of low, estimated bills– Car repairs– Over income limit for LIHEAP– Mortgage, rent, or child support arrearages or increases– Medical costs– Emergency travel expenses to visit sick family overseas– Home repairs– Change in work hours– Moving costs– High college tuition bills
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Grant Amounts
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Grant Amount 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
< $300 45% 14%
$300 <1% 14%
$301 - $699 55% 28%
$700 0% 10%
$700 - $999 0% 12%
$1,000 0% 22%
Mean Grant $373 $603
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Grant Amounts
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Grant AmountGrant Type
Electric Only Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat
< $300 33% 18% 5% 11%
$300 67% <1% <1% 1%
$301 - $699 0% 43% 33% 40%
$700 <1% 40% <1% 48%
$700 - $999 0% <1% 22% <1%
$1,000 0% 0% 40% 0%
Mean Grant $268 $531 $764 $563
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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Mean Grant Amount by Utility
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Utility 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients
Atlantic City Electric $286 $331
Elizabethtown $237 $504
JCP&L $278 $303
NJNG $246 $557
PSE&G $420 $669
Rockland $237 $284
SJG $236 $544
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Utility Data Analysis Methodology
• Focused on Q1 2006 grant recipients
• Transaction data from participating utilities
• Files contain payments, charges, account balances
• Analyzed:
– Existence of “Good Faith Payment”
– Grant coverage of pre-grant balances
– Ratio of payments made to charges incurred at key intervals
• Used Q1 2005 and Q1 2007 recipients as comparison groups
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Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions
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Q1 2006 Recipient Comparison Group
Q1 2005 Recipient Comparison Group
Q1 2007 Recipient Comparison Group
Accounts IncludedAll Q1 2006 grant
recipients
Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2005
only
Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2007 that did not receive grants in Q1 2006
Analysis Period Starts 1 day following grant1 year + 1 day after
grant1 year + 1 day before
grant
Analysis Period Ends1 year + 1 day after
grant2 years + 1 day after
grant1 day before grant
Analysis Period Span Q1 2006 – Q1 2007 Q1 2006 – Q1 2007 Q1 2006 – Q1 2007
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Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions (continued)
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2005
Q1 2006 ANALYSIS PERIOD
Q1 2005 ANALYSIS PERIOD
Q1 2007 ANALYSIS PERIOD
GRANT DATE
GRANT DATE + 1 YEAR + 1 DAYGRANT DATE + 1 DAY
GRANT DATE
GRANT DATE – 1 DAY
2006 2007
GRANT DATE + 1 DAY
GRANT DATE
1 YEAR
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“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisAttrition Analysis
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Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
Number Submitted 3,857 2,898
Number Returned 2,889 2,492
Eligible for Analysis* 1,445 2,108
Percent of Requested Accounts 37% 73%* An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.
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“Good Faith” Payment Analysis “Good Faith” Period Definition
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• The “Good Faith” payment period is defined as 90 days prior to intake through the day before the grant is applied to the account.
• Only payments made by the customer are counted.
INTAKE DATE – 90 DAYS
INTAKE DATE
GRANT DATE
“GOOD FAITH” PERIOD
GRANT DATE – 1 DAY
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“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisPercent Making “Good Faith” Payment
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Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
96% 96%
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“Good Faith” Payment Analysis
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Payments Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
$0 2% 2%
$1 - $99 2% 2%
$100 11% 13%
$101 - $250 26% 25%
$251 - $500 34% 30%
$501 + 25% 29%
Mean Payment $394 $424
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“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Q1 2006 Recipients
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PaymentsFederal Poverty Level
< 175% 175-199% 200-249% 250-299% ≥ 300%
$0 6% 4% 2% 2% <1%
$1 - $99 5% 3% 2% 2% <1%
$100 8% 13% 11% 9% 10%
$101 - $250 36% 25% 27% 28% 24%
$251 - $500 27% 38% 33% 34% 34%
$501 + 19% 17% 26% 26% 31%
Mean Payment $320 $353 $399 $408 $428
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“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Q1 2007 Recipients
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PaymentsFederal Poverty Level
< 175%* 175-199% 200-249% 250-299% ≥ 300%
$0 0% 2% 1% 2% 1%
$1 - $99 0% 2% 2% 2% 2%
$100 0% 15% 13% 13% 10%
$101 - $250 0% 27% 26% 26% 22%
$251 - $500 0% 28% 30% 26% 33%
$501 + 100% 26% 28% 31% 33%
Mean Payment $1,030 $391 $405 $435 $476
*Note: Only two Q1 2007 recipients in the data had a household poverty level of less than 175%.
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“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Number of Payments for Those Paying at Least $100
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Payments Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
25th Percentile 1 1
50th Percentile 2 2
75th Percentile 3 3
Mean Number of Payments 2.4 2.7
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Grant Coverage AnalysisAttrition Analysis
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Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
Number Submitted 3,857 2,898
Number Returned 2,889 2,492
Eligible for Analysis* 1,834 2,203
Percent of Requested Accounts 48% 79%* An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.
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Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 and Q1 2007 Grant Coverage
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Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
Mean Pre-Grant Balance $892 $1,086
Mean Grant $500 $612
Mean Post-Grant Balance $392 $473
Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered
67% 59%
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Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Coverage Distribution
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Percentile
10% 25% 50% 75% 90%
Pre-Grant Balance $280 $469 $762 $1,145 $1,662
Grant $233 $274 $449 $700 $991
Post-Grant Balance -$28 $49 $250 $561 $1,027
Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered
28% 42% 64% 88% 103%
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Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Coverage Distribution
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Percentile
10% 25% 50% 75% 90%
Pre-Grant Balance $354 $573 $921 $1,380 $1,959
Grant $272 $330 $656 $827 $1,000
Post-Grant Balance -$1 $70 $294 $636 $1,159
Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered
34% 48% 64% 86% 100%
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Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 and Q1 2007 Grant Coverage
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Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
Electric Only
Gas Only
Electric & Gas
Electric Heat
Electric Only
Gas Only
Electric & Gas
Electric Heat
Mean Pre-Grant Balance $739 $824 $1,187 $777 $687 $966 $1,319 $982
Mean Grant $261 $496 $766 $514 $271 $555 $777 $558
Mean Post-Grant Balance $478 $328 $421 $263 $417 $411 $542 $424
Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered
58% 65% 77% 76% 51% 46% 70% 74%
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Payment Compliance AnalysisAttrition Analysis
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Q1 2005 Recipients
Q1 2006 Recipients
Q1 2007 Recipients
Number Submitted 1,311 3,857 2,898
Number Returned 729 2,889 2,492
Accounts with Usable Data* 640 2,430 2,209
Amount of Data Available for Analysis
3 Months 426 1,741 1,297
6 Months 410 1,679 1,251
9 Months 389 1,594 1,220
12 Months 372 1,513 1,149
Percent of Requested Accounts 28% 39% 40%* An account has usable data if it appears to have received the NJ SHARES grant and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.
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Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid
44
Q1 2005 Recipients Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
3 Months 151% 87% 129%
6 Months 137% 94% 128%
9 Months 123% 89% 108%
12 Months 103% 84% 83%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid, Accounts with 12 Months of Data
45
Q1 2005 Recipients Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
3 Months 148% 87% 130%
6 Months 134% 94% 127%
9 Months 122% 89% 108%
12 Months 103% 84% 83%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Percent Paying ≥ 100% and ≥ 90%, Accounts with 12 Months of Data
46
Q1 2005 Recipients Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients
Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90% Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90% Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90%
3 Months 67% 72% 30% 38% 60% 66%
6 Months 67% 77% 35% 47% 63% 72%
9 Months 71% 85% 29% 46% 56% 67%
12 Months 55% 78% 20% 40% 15% 31%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Percent of Bills Paid, Recipients with 12 Months of Data
47
Percent of Bills Paid
Q1 2005 Recipients
Q1 2006 Recipients
Q1 2007 Recipients
< 50% 1% 7% 7%
50% - 75% 5% 25% 28%
76% - 90% 16% 28% 35%
91% - 99% 23% 21% 16%
100% + 55% 20% 15%
Mean 103% 84% 83%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance
48
Q1 2005 Recipients
Q1 2006 Recipients
Q1 2007 Recipients
Starting Balance $569 $274 $579
3 Months $397 $355 $500
6 Months $343 $341 $413
9 Months $307 $407 $495
12 Months $500 $590 $933
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Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance,Accounts with 12 Months of Data
49
Q1 2005 Recipients
Q1 2006 Recipients
Q1 2007 Recipients
Starting Balance $542 $272 $559
3 Months $392 $357 $476
6 Months $350 $340 $409
9 Months $309 $402 $494
12 Months $500 $590 $933
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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients
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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued)
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Ending Balance <$100
Balance Declined, Ending Balance
≥ $100
Balance Increased by
<$100
Balance Increased by
≥ $100
Number of Customers 203 188 112 1,010
Percent of Customers 13% 12% 7% 67%
Mean Pre-Grant Balance $546 $1,406 $815 $875
Mean Grant Amount $400 $497 $418 $533
Mean Post-Grant Balance $147 $909 $396 $342
Mean Number of Payments* 10 10 10 9
Mean Percent of Bills Paid 104% 113% 96% 73%* Note: Only customer payments are counted.
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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued)
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Balance Increased by $100 - $399
Balance Increased by $400 - $999
Balance Increased by
$1,000 +
Number of Customers 458 435 117
Percent of Customers 30% 29% 8%
Mean Pre-Grant Balance $744 $921 $1,217
Mean Grant Amount $451 $590 $645
Mean Post-Grant Balance $293 $331 $571
Mean Number of Payments* 9 9 7
Mean Percent of Bills Paid 83% 68% 51%
* Note: Only customer payments are counted.
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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued)
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Ending Balance <$100
Balance Declined, Ending Balance
≥ $100
Balance Increased by
<$100
Balance Increased by
≥ $100
Number of Customers 203 188 112 1,010
Percent of Customers 13% 12% 7% 67%
Mean Starting Balance $84 $795 $267 $213
Mean Ending Balance -$14 $515 $315 $756
Percent Paying ≥ 90% 84% 100% 92% 15%
Percent Paying ≥ 100% 53% 100% 0% 0%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued)
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Balance Increased by $100 - $399
Balance Increased by $400 - $999
Balance Increased by
$1,000 +
Number of Customers 458 435 117
Percent of Customers 30% 29% 8%
Mean Starting Balance $190 $185 $414
Mean Ending Balance $427 $812 $1,841
Percent Paying ≥ 90% 32% <1% 0%
Percent Paying ≥ 100% 0% 0% 0%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued)
Ending Balance <$100
Balance Declined, Ending Balance
≥ $100
Balance Increased by
<$100
Balance Increased by
≥ $100
Number of Customers 203 188 112 1,010
Percent of Customers 13% 12% 7% 67%
Median Annual Income $33,924 $37,056 $38,100 $35,004
< 175% FPL 4% 5% 3% 5%
175% – 199% FPL 24% 25% 18% 22%
200% - 249% FPL 32% 40% 36% 33%
250% - 299% FPL 17% 10% 18% 16%
≥ 300% FPL 23% 20% 26% 24%
Percent Single-Parent 10% 12% 9% 13%
Percent Elderly-Only 9% 4% 6% 6%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued)
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Balance Increased by $100 - $399
Balance Increased by $400 - $999
Balance Increased by
$1,000 +
Number of Customers 458 435 117
Percent of Customers 30% 29% 8%
Median Annual Income $34,170 $35,220 $36,312
< 175% FPL 5% 5% 3%
175% – 199% FPL 21% 24% 19%
200% - 249% FPL 34% 31% 38%
250% - 299% FPL 16% 16% 15%
≥ 300% FPL 25% 23% 25%
Percent Single-Parent 13% 13% 10%
Percent Elderly-Only 4% 8% 8%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued)
Electric Only Gas OnlyElectric &
GasElectric Heat
Ending Balance <$100 18% 14% 8% 11%
Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100
15% 13% 9% 16%
Balance Increased by < $100 11% 6% 5% 8%
Balance Increased by ≥ $100 57% 67% 77% 65%
Total 100% 100.00 100.00 100.00
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Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the 12 Months Following Grant
58
Utility Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP
Elizabethtown 5%
JCP&L 8%
NJNG 7%
PSE&G 10%
SJG 12%
TOTAL 9%
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Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the “Good Faith” Period
59
Utility Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP
Elizabethtown 0%
JCP&L 1%
NJNG 0%
PSE&G 3%
SJG 4%
TOTAL 2%