2015

Shuzo Nishioka Secretary General, LoCARNet

Senior Research advisor

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

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Mobilising Wisdom through Capacity Building for Low Carbon Asia:

-Change Agent for Stablising Climate-

Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century

To avoid 2 degree rise, path of passing 50% reduction from now in 2050 is feasible and reasonable .

ＩIPCC AR5 2013

Global target: Halving of current emission by 2050

3.7-4.8 ℃

2.0℃

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Japan world

Emission in 2050

Halving

Present emission

total

Equal allocation per Capita ～2ｔ/Cap.

20Gt 0.2 Gt

40Gt （2000）

1.26Gt （1990）

Pop. 9.6G 0.097G

>85% reduction

※世界の人口は国連「World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision」より、日本の人口は社人研「日本の将来推計人口（平成24年1月推計）」より

2010 Per capita CO2

USA 17.4

China 5.55

India 1.35

Indonesia 1.63

Thailand 3.25

France 5.34

Germany 8.92

UK 7.92

Japan 9.05

2050 halving from now: 2ton/Capita World Japan: more than 80% reduction（base year 1990） Asia: already more than 2ton/ Capita CBDR revisited, competition towards 2 ton world: Asia can leapfrog?

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

per

cap

ita

Time

Developed Countries Locked in Society

High Energy Locked-in Type Development

With High Damage on Economy and Natural System

Free hand Society

Developing Countries

Leapfrog Development

Modeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia

Asian Low-Carbon Society Scenario Development Study” FY2009-2013, funded by Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ http://2050.nies.go.jp/index.html

LCS scenario in Asia

2 ton world

Japan

ASEAN

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Seven Asian priority topics discussed: “GHG inventories as bases”; “policy-making processes and use of integrated assessment models”; “land use and forestry”; “low-carbon cities”; “local level practices/ decisions / initiatives”; “institutionalization of low-carbon green growth”; and “technology for leapfrogging”.

Synthesis Reports: http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/index.html

LoCARNet: Low Carbon Asia Research Network Proposed to ASEAN ＋3 EMM Mtg. in 2011 by Japan

An open network of researchers & research organizations, as well as like-minded relevant stakeholders that facilitates the formulation and implementation of

science-based policies for low-carbon development in Asia.

Indonesia Cambodia

Thailand

Malaysia

Vietnam

Workshops and consultations in Asian countries

Cambodia Workshop: A Systematic and Quantitative Design of Low Carbon Development Plan for

Cambodia (April 2013)

Int’l workshops in Iskandar, Malaysia (2012-2013)

• Low Emission Development Scenarios (LEDs) of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise (June 2012)

• Indonesia Workshop: Research Cooperation on “Development of Low-Carbon Strategies” (Feb. 2013)

Vietnam Workshop: Low Carbon Society in Vietnam (April 2013)

• LoCARNet 1st Annual Mtg. (Oct. 2012)

• Development of Asia Low-Carbon Strategy and Roadmap 1st Kick off Meeting (Oct. 2012)

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Asian Modeling Meeting at Tsukuba on 17-18

September 2009

14th AIM International Workshop on 14-15 February

2009

AIM Training Workshop on 2-14

August 2010

Asian Low Carbon Development Scenario Making and Capacity Building Activity

Since 1991

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17th AIM International Workshop,17-19, February

2012

16th AIM International Workshop on 19-21 February

2011

15th AIM International Workshop on 20-22

February 2010

AIM Training Workshop on 27-31 October

2008

AIM Training Workshop on 22-26 October 2007 AIM Training Workshop on 16-20 October 2006

1st AIM International Workshop on

1-2 February,1996

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LoCARNet Team Assists

National and Local Low Carbon Development Plan

2010/10 2009/11

on going on going 2011/10

2009/10

2011/03

2008/12

2010/10

2011/09

2007/05 2009/10

2009/11

2009/10

2011/05

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CoE

CoE

CoE

CoE Funding

Organization:ADB/JICA/

government

Journal

Future of Low Carbon Asia Research Network

Alliance of Centers of Excellence for Low Carbon Development Strategy in Asia

Forestry・agricultual・land-use

Low carbon, resilient cities

Universities/ Research Organizations

Knowledge sharing/Education/Training

Energy /technology

Low carbon development policy Inventory/ MRV

Low carbon development strategy

of Asian Countries

International Org. UNEP,,,,

Joint Study Policy Dialogue

Research community

Economic evaluation

WSs

Web

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14 14

NGO CDKN, WRI, CAN,,,

Local Gov’t/Alliances City, ICLEI, C40…

Business/Industry WBCSD, Japan-CLP…

National Gov’t/ Regional alliances ASEAN, OECD, TEMMS, IEA

International Entities UN, UNEP, UNESCO, WMO, UNFCCC…

Academia ICSU, IAC, Universities, Research Institutions…

Public Society Local residents, citizens, consumers

Stakeholders called for Action

Int’l Finance/Aid Organisations WB, ADB, AFDB,AIID, JICA, USAid

Scientific observation, climate prediction, process analysis, data accumulation, publishing data & articles

Policy formation

“Decade for Accelerating Transformative Action to Low Carbon Society：DATALoCS”

Policy implication

Climate risk recognition

PDCA

1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050

IPCC AR5 IPCC

Strengthening Climate related agenda and activities in UN & UN family

Accelerating formation of new regime and its implementation in UNFCCC

Establishing and implementing a long-term low-carbon policy

Regional cooperation for common climate policy

Creation of/ transition to LC/ resilient cities

Urgent action to climate vulnerable spot and continuous strategic adaptation operation

Promotion of Bi/Multi-lateral cooperation

Financial & technological cooperation for leapfrogging

Design of finance and investment for transition

Reform in energy system/ industrial structure & techno-socio innovation aiming for a LC society

Transformation to LC lifestyle in daily life & preparation for adaptation in community

Taking role to consolidate multi-level stakeholder action into transforming to LC & resilient society

DATALoCS

Facilitation

Financial function

Knowledge sharing

Knowledge creation/

assessment

Agent of change

Social learning

Function to be strengthened

I PCC AR6

Examples of Action

Enhancing solution oriented inter-disciplinary research

Effective joint action among Int’l entities

Dialogue for N-S, S-S Cooperation

Matching of finance & infrastructure/ technology

Research-Policy dialogue for science based integrated national climate policy

Compromising conflicts associated with industry/energy shift to LC society

School education for climate knowledge and action

Public participation to design/ transformation to LC/R cities

Social learning for CC resilient community

Enhance NGO cooperation to

drive transition Urg

en

t t

ran

siti

on

to

a lo

w-c

arb

on

an

d r

esi

lien

t w

orl

d

Social learning and dialogue for transformative

solution

Thank you very much for your attention! LCS-RNet/LoCARNet Secretariat http://lcs-rnet.org/index.html c/o Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0115, Japan

E-mail: lcs-rnet@iges.or.jp Fax: +81 (0)46 855 3809

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Opportunities for Asia: Leveraged by climate change

Long-term trends in energy intensity (energy/GDP)

Japan’s leap-frog in Oil Crisis

China/ASEAN? ＊India?

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Learning curve by human being