nina schneider_master thesis defense
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Evidence of significant relationships between Economic Growth & Job Creation, Poverty
Reduction and Resource Constraints & Climate Change during 1990-2014 in Thailand
M.Sc SDMP Thesis Defense
Nina Schneider, B.ScJune 15, 2016
Supervisor: Dr. Ivo PonocnySecond Assessor: Dr. Sabine Sedlacek
The Empirical Possibility of
![Page 2: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Table of Contents
June 15, 2016 Table of Contents2
Rationale
RQ & Literature
Method.
Empirical Results
Discussion
Conclusion
The End
![Page 3: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The RationaleHistorical Foundations, Green Growth in Thailand
![Page 4: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Historical Foundations
June 15, 2016 The Rationale4
United Nations
1972-1995: Protection of Biodiversity
2000-2012: Millennium Development Goals
2015-Present: Sustainable Development Goals
Later adopted by OCED (2011) & World Bank
(2013)
Green Growth is “a strategy of sustaining
economic growth and job creation necessary to
reduce poverty in the face of worsening
resource constraints and climate crises.”
(MCED-5, 2005a; UN ESCAP, 2012)
![Page 5: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Green Growth in Thailand
June 15, 2016 The Rationale5
Role of UNESCAP: Regional Commission, ESC
Asia-Pacific characterized by rising natural resource costs
and persistent regional poverty, and decelerating GDP
- Low-Carbon GG Road Map (UN ESCAP, 2012b
- Visible GG k knowledge transfers (GGKP, 2013)
Philosophy of “Sufficiency Economy”:
NESDP (1961-1974): economic growth via import
expansion = poverty, deforestation, econ. growth, crime
1974: King Bhumibol Adjuljadej stressed empathy
- 1994 Strategy: Resilient economic base, sufficiency
- Elements of Green Growth
![Page 6: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
RQ & LiteratureResearch Question & Objectives, Theoretical Framework
![Page 7: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Research Question & Objectives
June 15, 2016 RQ & Literature7
Research Question
Is there evidence of significant relationships between: Economic Growth & Job
Creation, Poverty Reduction, and Resource Constraints &
Climate Change during 1990-2014 in Thailand?
i.e. Are Green Growth’s impacts empirically possible, in Thailand’s recent history?
Primary Objective
Presence of lead-lag relationship between Green Growth’s concepts, and if so,
between which disaggregated variables.
Secondary Objective
Likelihood of causality via lead-lagged relationships and structural equation modeling,
underscored with empirical results and strong historical
context for each year.
![Page 8: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Theoretical Framework
June 15, 2016 RQ & Literature8
Total 16 relationships between concepts
Key Literature
- ↑ Economic Growth ↓ Poverty: Kutznets, 1955; Duran, 2015
- ↑Resource Constraints ↓ Poverty: Rees, 1992; Cushion et al, 2010 – esp. rural regions (USAID, 2006)
- ↑ Resource Constraints ↑ Economic Growth: OCED, 2008; Gelb, 2010 – Resource Curse: Auty, 2003
- ↑ Economic Growth ↑ Climate Change: Carbon Dioxide - World Bank, 2007, Lim et al, 2014
![Page 9: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
MethodologyResearch Design, Methodology
![Page 10: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Research Design
June 15, 2016 Methodology10
Research Approach
• Multivariate statistical analysis of secondary data
Historical Case Study
• Good for historical, secondary data• Minimal data collection errors• Inclusion of historical context qualifies it as an
explanatory case study
Sources of Data• World Bank & Thai Meteorological Dept: objective,
consistent, reliable, statistically powerful, saves resources
Measurement of Green Growth
• Green Growth = f (econ growth, job creation, poverty, resource constraints, climate change). Disaggregated into 20 variables.
![Page 11: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Methodology
June 15, 2016 Methodology11
Multiple Imputation- 500 cases (1990-2014) for 20 variables = 51 missing values (10.2%)- Missing at Random Clause: systematic missingness (Rubin, 1996)- 5 imputations = Standard error 0.01 (Hershberger & Fischer, 2003)
Cross-Correlation- Exploratory endeavor, 5% significance will not cause Type 1 error inflation - Literature re: time lags are vague, and general. E.g. no reference for appropriate time lag. Therefore 8 years selected (4 year electoral cycles)
Linear Regression or Structural Eq. Modeling- LR = lead-lagged relationship- SEM = path analysis, multiple regression (indirect vs. direct effects).- Include historical context to explain
![Page 12: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Empirical ResultsResults (Cross-Correlation, SEM, Noise Residuals),
Historical Context
![Page 13: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Results
June 15, 2016 Empirical Results13
Sig. Relationship: GDP Per Capita Unemployment, Adj. Net National Income.
However –
- Adj. Net National Income ≠ CO2 Emissions & Natural Resource Depletion
- Adj. Net National Income ≠ Unemployment- Resource Constraints ≠ GDP Per Capita and Adj.
Net National Income- GDP Per Capita does ≠ CO2 Emissions
SEM on Noise Residuals confirm.
Implication: 1) economic growth assists poverty and unemployment, and 2) economic growth does not worsen resource constraints and climate change.
At this stage of analysis, there is a strong possibility that in Thailand, between the years of 1990-2014, policies reflecting Green Growth ideology is active and present.
![Page 14: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Historical Context
June 15, 2016 Empirical Results14
![Page 15: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
DiscussionContribution to Sustainable Development, Applicability to ASEAN Countries, Implications for Relevant Stakeholders
![Page 16: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Contribution to Sustainable Development
June 15, 2016 Discussion16
1. Relative decoupling has been occurring between 1990-2014.
2. Spur academics to confirm finding by tracking longitudinal environmental impact of GG policies in Thailand, e.g. environmental accounting.
3. Develop metrics to measure all of Thailand’s solid/atmospheric waste from natural resource, at the source.
Limitations:
- Lack of inclusion of ALL variables corresponding to GG’s concepts (2-6 variables/concept)
- Multiple imputation’s natural statistical limitation
- SEM is an exploratory procedure, selection of each variable based on strongest, sig. cross-correlations with each other. Based on 29th complete round of SEM analysis.
![Page 17: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Applicability to ASEAN Countries
June 15, 2016 Discussion17
1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.500
0.550
0.600
0.650
0.700
0.750
0.800
Human Development Indices (1990-2014) for Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Phil-ippines
Correlations Thailand Indonesia Malaysia PhilippinesThailand Pearson Correlation 1 .998** .995** .990**
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000N 7 7 7 7
HDI Correlations Between Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines
![Page 18: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Implications for Relevant Stakeholders
June 15, 2016 Discussion18
Green Growth
Thailand's Government- Progressive
environmental standards
- Funding GG STEM
United Nations- Capacity-building: development of GG
policy indicators
Corporations- Sustainable production
- Supply chain management
![Page 19: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
ConclusionThe Future
![Page 20: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The Future
June 15, 2016 Conclusion20
Green Growth is not a replacement for Sustainable Development.
Rather, it is a temporary solution to appease the demands of our artificial economic system, until we are all ready for a paradigm shift – one that calls for a balance between
human population and the Earth.
United Nations asked for developed countries to take the lead; therefore, by analyzing Thailand, one of the largest economies in Asia-Pacific, this investigation yielded hopeful
results that there are already signs of Green Growth.
![Page 21: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The EndKey References, Photography References,
Acknowledgements
![Page 22: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Key References
June 15, 2016 The End22
ADB. (2012). Policies and Practices for Low-Carbon Green Growth In Asia: Highlights. Bangkok: Asian Development Bank Institute. Retrieved from http://ipcc-wg2.gov/njlite_download2.php?id=9689.Beerepoot et al. (2013). Incentives for Renewable Energy in Southeast Asia: Case Study of Thailand. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Trade Knowledge Network. Retrieved from http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2013/investment_incentives_thailand.pdfBruckner, M. (2009). Integrating Climate Change into National Sustainable Development Strategies - the Role of Indicators. Institutionalizing Sustainable Development Indicators for Measuring Progress of National Strategies (p. 21). Barbados: United Nations. Retrieved from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/3184DSD_session_3.pdfBuch-Hansen et al. (2006). Rethinking natural resource management in Thailand. Roskilde: Roskilde University. Retrieved from http://jpe.library.arizona.edu/volume_13/hansen.pdfChen, J. H., & Huang, Y. F. (2013). The Study of the Relationship between Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission and Economic Growth. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 6(2), 45-61. Retrieved from http://www2.southeastern.edu/orgs/econjournal/index_files/JIGES%20DEC%202013%20CHEN%20HUANG%20%203-28-2014.pdfDuronkaveroj, P. (2015, March 9). STI National Plan towards Green Growth of Thailand. Retrieved from Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation: http://www.sti.or.th/uploads/news_pdf/42_TH.pdfGGKP. (2015). Green Growth Knowledge Partners. Retrieved from Green Growth Knowledge Platform: http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/partnersHallegatte et al. (2012). From Growth to Green Growth - A Framework, Working Paper 17841. Retrieved from NBER Working Paper Series : http://www.nber.org/papers/w17841.pdfIslam, R. (2004). The Nexus of Economic Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction: An Empirical Analysis. Geneva: Recovery and Reconstruction Department in International Labour Office. Retrieved from http://ilo.int/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_120690.pdfMCED-5. (2005a). Achieving Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific. Ministerial Conference on Environment and Development in Asia and the Pacific, 2005 (pp. 1-29). Seoul: United Nations Economic and Social Council. Retrieved from United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific: http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Theme%20Paper_Eng.pdfMendelsohn, R. (2009). Climate Change and Economic Growth, Working Paper No. 60. Washington D.C.: Commission on Growth and Development of The World Bank. Retrieved from https://environment.yale.edu/files/biblio/YaleFES-00000397.pdfNESDB. (2012). The Eleventh National Economic and Social Development Plan (2012-2016). Bangkok: National Economic and Social Development Board. Retrieved from http://portal.mrcmekong.org/assets/documents/Thai-Law/11th-National-Economic-and-Social-Development-Plan-2012-2016.pdfTMD. (2015a). Climate. Retrieved from Thai Meteorological Department: http://www.tmd.go.th/en/UN DESA. (2007). Indicators of Sustainable Development (3rd ed.). Department of Economic and Social Affairs. New York: United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/guidelines.pdfUN ESCAP. (2012b). Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap for Asia and the Pacific: Turning resource constraints and the climate crisis into economic growth opportunities. Bangkok: UN ESCAP and KOICA. Retrieved from http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Full-report.pdf
![Page 23: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Photography References
June 15, 2016 The End23
In order of appearance:http://www.epacha.org/siteimages/un_logo_green%20YEAR%20OF%20FORESTS%20UNITED%20NATIONS%20FAO%202011.pnghttp://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/sites/default/files/uploads/GG-Logo-HD.jpghttp://nnimgt-a.akamaihd.net/transform/v1/crop/frm/silverstone-feed-data/960e3284-4172-4b2c-bb6b-0990810643f6.jpg/r0_0_729_410_w1200_h678_fmax.jpghttp://arifiqball.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Arif_Iqball_051510_L1001034_1.jpg http://www.wildwatchthailand.com/pictures/tours/tour_13_1.jpg http://www.un.org/News/dh/photos/large/2015/May/05-28-2015UNESCAP.jpg https://www.globalpeace.org/sites/default/files/UNESCAP.jpghttp://blogs.reuters.com/russell-boyce/files/2010/12/RTXVEVK.jpg http://www.zicasso.com/sites/default/files/styles/original_scaled_down/public/photos/tour/thailand_view_of_maya_bay_phi_phi_island_boats.jpg http://www.climatefinance-developmenteffectiveness.org/sites/default/files/Thailand%20RID.jpg http://www.destination360.com/asia/thailand/images/s/ayutthaya.jpghttp://static.asiawebdirect.com/m/bangkok/portals/bangkok-com/shared/teasersL/SHOPPING/siam-paragon-y/teaserMultiLarge/image/siam-paragon-shopping-mall.jpghttp://static1.squarespace.com/static/565c786ee4b05079e4c2167a/t/57077288e32140a42a4670d5/1460105871882/? format=750whttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XEzfStuXb20/UL8jy3k9trI/AAAAAAAAGZk/uJkPpYtevRM/s1600/Self_Sufficiency.JPG http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/20150714/1092688.jpghttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yOIxiqGYGo0/UY5Z6iIgOvI/AAAAAAAABrc/0_ewNTRJsUE/s1600/shutterstock_green-growth_71322319.jpg https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/06/88/8a/69/thailand-eco-tour-private.jpg http://www.climatetechwiki.org/sites/climatetechwiki.org/files/images/teaser/low-carbon_water_transport_teaser_image.jpg http://www.climatechangenews.com/files/2012/09/unfccc-plenary-at-the-unescap-building-in-bangkok-2011-source-flickr-unfccc-400px.jpghttp://s1.it.atcdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/shutterstock_148556624-1.jpg http://www.thailandsustainabledevelopment.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PART3_Private_SOCIAL-ENTERPRISE.jpghttp://tourismworldbd.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Elephant-Hills-Rainforest-Camp-Khao-Sok-National-Park-Thailand.jpg http://www.epicproject.net/wp-content/uploads/Smiling%20boys%20in%20mangrove,%20nursery,%20Thailand.jpghttp://becomingthebboss.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/thai-monk-tiger-temple.jpg https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e6/Macaque_-_Monkey_Cave_Temple_-_Thailand_(3930134954). jpg
![Page 24: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Acknowledgements
June 15, 2016 The End24
SiNing
Dr. Ivo Ponony
Dr. Sabine Sedlacek
Bradley Malave
Veronika
Family
Irene Helena
Hani
Jordan & Amy
Sebastian
Calder
![Page 25: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Optional SlidesSignificance of Testing Constructs, Validity Threats
![Page 26: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Significance of Testing Constructs
June 15, 2016 Optional Slides26
Green Growth
• SDGs 8.4: decoupling of econ growth from env. degradation (UN, 2015a) • Improve understanding of variables’ interrelationships • Assist regionally-similar nations in Asia-Pacific
Time Period
• Maximize statistical power, degrees of freedom• Limitations of quality and consistent data (2015 not published)• Coincide with Thailand’s agreement of Agenda 21 at 1992 Earth Summit
Location
• Green Growth ideals in 1974 & 1994 Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy• Presence of UNESCAP – data transparency, accountability• 1990: HDI 0.572, Lower-Middle Income World Bank Class = Contradictory.
![Page 27: Nina Schneider_Master Thesis Defense](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062902/58edc9a51a28ab88328b4651/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Validity Threats
June 15, 2016 Optional Slides27
Construct Validity: Content- UN literature defends representativeness of variables (UN DESA, 2007; Bruckner, 2009; WB, 2015b)
Internal Validity- Confounders controlled for: macro political environment (Setboonsarng, 2012), infrastructure (Gurria, 2006)
External Validity- High generalizability to Thailand, statements may be applied to regionally-similar countries
Statistical Conclusion Validity- Minimize bias of multicollinearity, therefore variables located within each under umbrella concept will not be correlated with each other. Applicable for linear regressions.
Reliability- MI may cause problems for test-retest reliability