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Fifth International Conference on Intelligent Technologies December 3, 2004. Dealing with Uncertainty in a Model of Computer Science Graduate Admissions. Nigel Ward University of Texas at El Paso. (a 12 minute pre-banquet talk at a small 3-day gathering - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

  • Nigel WardUniversity of Texas at El PasoFifth International Conference on Intelligent Technologies December 3, 2004Dealing with Uncertainty in a Model of Computer Science Graduate Admissions

  • (a 12 minute pre-banquet talk

    at a small 3-day gathering

    of soft-computing researchers)

  • The Problem10,000+ CS grad school applicants a yearmany wasted applicationssome disappointed applicantsa model of applicant strength + models of admissions criteria

  • demonstrationThe Acceptance Estimator Concept

  • How to Combine GRE Scores?Two common styles: avg/sum and min:we expect a GRE V+Q+A of at least 2100we expect at least 600 V, 700 Q and 650 A A compromise: stronger scores weighted less, but not zero* 1.33 for weakest, 1.0 for middle, .67 for strongest(an ordered weighted averaging operator)* cf Carlsson, Fuller and Fuller in Yager and Kacprzyk, 1997

  • Sample Computation

    raw value (RV)normalized value NVrank Rranking factor RFcontribution level CL

    verbal600100#1.6767quantitative6500#31.330analytical writing4.562#21.0062

  • Explaining Apparent Diversity admissions policy for department xomissionssimplificationsguessesfogXs published admissions policy andstatisticsspin

  • Estimating the Scaling ParametersTo apply OWA, we must normalize scores firstwhat is the GRE Q score corresponding to a 3.7 UTEP GPA?

  • Weighting the Scores CL x IW iIW iiiiCGRE =

    factorGRE VIW.7GRE Q1.0GRE AW.7GPA (if US)2.5GPA (JNTU, Madras)2.5GPA (other Indian)2.0letters of recommendationvaries

  • Complexities in Recommendationscommeasurate with GREs and GPAcan be a plus or a minusare fundamentally optionalare not expected to have specific points so no ranking factors vary in influenceso the importance weight computation is vital

  • Modeling RecommendationsLeading recommender is a describing you as a =weightscaling factor= warmth score

  • Summary of the ComputationSubtract Baseline and Scale Raw to get Normalized Value:Weight and Sum:Order Normalized Values and apply Ranking Factorsto get Contribution Levels:where r is rank, n is number of scoresRF =2 r - 13 n - 1( 1+ )i

  • Factors in Admissions DecisionsIn the ModelGREsGPAin-major or recent GPAmajorletters of recommendationstatement of purposescholarshipsgroup membershipNot in the Modelundergrad schoolGRE subject test (CS)TOEFLnationality/culturespecific courseworkresearch matchpublicationsetc.

  • Evaluation55 UTEP applicant datafiles accept / rejectcompare applicant featuresaccept/reject decisions51/55 successeswith failuresexplicable

  • Modeling Other Departments applicant data

  • Does the Model Work for Departments?

    Graph3

    75

    85

    94

    99

    56

    77

    92

    96

    106

    104

    109

    124

    -33

    -23

    28

    54

    67

    70

    -134

    -58

    -45

    -4

    -2

    14

    17

    33

    46

    56

    -40

    112

    19

    47

    48

    105

    140

    140

    140

    154

    83.3333

    86

    -25

    -25

    -25

    0

    25

    25

    25

    25

    25

    -183.333

    -83.3333

    16.6667

    50

    50

    66.6667

    83.3333

    116.667

    overall

    NRC Effectiveness

    CGRE

    calibration4

    Oregon Health and Sciences University - OGI CSE2.875avg2

    Georgia Institute of Technology - CC385avg2

    Rice University - CS3.5194avg2

    Rutgers University - CS3.0599avg2

    University of South Carolina - CSE1.4956avg3

    University of Florida - CISE2.4877avg3

    Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - CS2.992avg3

    University of Texas, Austin - CS3.8196avg3

    University of Washington - CS4.05106avg3

    Northwestern University - CS2.92104avg4

    University of California, Davis - CS2.58109avg4

    University of Massachusetts, Amherst - CS3.6124avg4

    University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.67-33min2

    University of Florida - CISE2.48-23min2

    University of Connecticut - CSE1.5628min2

    Rice University - CS3.5154min2

    University of Virginia - CS3.0567min2soft

    University of Chicago2.8870min2

    University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.03-134min3

    New Jersey Institute of Technology - CS1.77-58min3

    Case Western Reserve University - EECS2.1-45min3

    Arizona State University - CSE2.26-4min3

    University of Oregon2.01-2min3

    Ohio State University - CSE2.3414min3

    Wayne State University1.6717min3

    University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8633min3

    University of Arizona - CS2.9946min3

    North Carolina State University - CS1.8656min3guideline

    University of North Texas - CS1.04-40min4

    University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4112min4

    Columbia University - CS4.4719most-above

    North Carolina State University - CS1.8647most-abovecaveats

    New York University - CS3.4748most-above

    University of Wisconsin, Madison3.87105most-above

    Princeton University - CS3.84140most-above

    Stanford University - CS4.6140most-abovecaveat

    Yale University - CS3.44140most-above

    University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4154most-above

    Lehigh University - CSE1.6783.3333sma3sum3-avg

    Carnegie Mellon University - HCII4.3886sma3sum3-avg

    Florida State University - CS0.83-25sum2

    University of Alabama, Birmingham - CIS0.91-25sum2

    University of Florida - CISE2.48-25sum2

    University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.670sum2

    Oregon State University - EECS1.5725sum2

    University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8625sum2

    University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.0325sum2

    University of South Florida - CSE1.7525sum2

    University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9225sum2

    Illinois Institute of Technology - CS1.58-183.333sum3

    University of Alabama, Huntsville - CS1.39-83.3333sum3

    University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9216.6667sum3

    Ohio State University - CSE2.3450sum3caveats

    University of Kansas EECS1.8350sum3

    University of Maryland - CS3.4566.6667sum3

    Michigan State University - CSE2.7483.3333sum3

    University of Rochester3.51116.667sum3

    calibration4

    overall

    NRC Effectiveness

    CGRE

  • Does the Model Work for Departments?Thus selectivity, as measured by the model, correlates with desirability, somewhat

    Graph1

    75

    85

    94

    99

    56

    77

    92

    96

    106

    104

    109

    124

    -33

    -23

    28

    54

    67

    70

    -134

    -58

    -45

    -4

    -2

    14

    17

    33

    46

    56

    -40

    112

    19

    47

    48

    105

    140

    140

    140

    154

    83.3333

    86

    -25

    -25

    -25

    0

    25

    25

    25

    25

    25

    -183.333

    -83.3333

    16.6667

    50

    50

    66.6667

    83.3333

    116.667

    overall

    trend

    NRC Effectiveness

    CGRE

    calibration4

    Oregon Health and Sciences University - OGI CSE2.875avg2

    Georgia Institute of Technology - CC385avg2

    Rice University - CS3.5194avg2

    Rutgers University - CS3.0599avg2

    University of South Carolina - CSE1.4956avg3

    University of Florida - CISE2.4877avg3

    Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - CS2.992avg3

    University of Texas, Austin - CS3.8196avg3

    University of Washington - CS4.05106avg3

    Northwestern University - CS2.92104avg4

    University of California, Davis - CS2.58109avg4

    University of Massachusetts, Amherst - CS3.6124avg4

    University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.67-33min2

    University of Florida - CISE2.48-23min2

    University of Connecticut - CSE1.5628min2

    Rice University - CS3.5154min2

    University of Virginia - CS3.0567min2soft

    University of Chicago2.8870min2

    University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.03-134min3

    New Jersey Institute of Technology - CS1.77-58min3

    Case Western Reserve University - EECS2.1-45min3

    Arizona State University - CSE2.26-4min3

    University of Oregon2.01-2min3

    Ohio State University - CSE2.3414min3

    Wayne State University1.6717min3

    University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8633min3

    University of Arizona - CS2.9946min3

    North Carolina State University - CS1.8656min3guideline

    University of North Texas - CS1.04-40min4

    University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4112min4

    Columbia University - CS4.4719most-above

    North Carolina State University - CS1.8647most-abovecaveats

    New York University - CS3.4748most-above

    University of Wisconsin, Madison3.87105most-above

    Princeton University - CS3.84140most-above

    Stanford University - CS4.6140most-abovecaveat

    Yale University - CS3.44140most-above

    University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4154most-above

    Lehigh University - CSE1.6783.3333sma3sum3-avg

    Carnegie Mellon University - HCII4.3886sma3sum3-avg

    Florida State University - CS0.83-25sum2

    University of Alabama, Birmingham - CIS0.91-25sum2

    University of Florida - CISE2.48-25sum2

    University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.670sum2

    Oregon State University - EECS1.5725sum2

    University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8625sum2

    University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.0325sum2

    University of South Florida - CSE1.7525sum2

    University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9225sum2

    Illinois Institute of Technology - CS1.58-183.333sum3

    University of Alabama, Huntsville - CS1.39-83.3333sum3

    University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9216.6667sum3

    Ohio State University - CSE2.3450sum3caveats

    University of Kansas EECS1.8350sum3

    University of