Nigel Ward University of Texas at El Paso

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Fifth International Conference on Intelligent Technologies December 3, 2004. Dealing with Uncertainty in a Model of Computer Science Graduate Admissions. Nigel Ward University of Texas at El Paso. (a 12 minute pre-banquet talk at a small 3-day gathering - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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<ul><li><p>Nigel WardUniversity of Texas at El PasoFifth International Conference on Intelligent Technologies December 3, 2004Dealing with Uncertainty in a Model of Computer Science Graduate Admissions</p></li><li><p>(a 12 minute pre-banquet talk </p><p>at a small 3-day gathering</p><p>of soft-computing researchers)</p></li><li><p>The Problem10,000+ CS grad school applicants a yearmany wasted applicationssome disappointed applicantsa model of applicant strength + models of admissions criteria</p></li><li><p>demonstrationThe Acceptance Estimator Concept</p></li><li><p>How to Combine GRE Scores?Two common styles: avg/sum and min:we expect a GRE V+Q+A of at least 2100we expect at least 600 V, 700 Q and 650 A A compromise: stronger scores weighted less, but not zero* 1.33 for weakest, 1.0 for middle, .67 for strongest(an ordered weighted averaging operator)* cf Carlsson, Fuller and Fuller in Yager and Kacprzyk, 1997</p></li><li><p>Sample Computation</p><p>raw value (RV)normalized value NVrank Rranking factor RFcontribution level CL</p><p>verbal600100#1.6767quantitative6500#31.330analytical writing4.562#21.0062</p></li><li><p>Explaining Apparent Diversity admissions policy for department xomissionssimplificationsguessesfogXs published admissions policy andstatisticsspin</p></li><li><p>Estimating the Scaling ParametersTo apply OWA, we must normalize scores firstwhat is the GRE Q score corresponding to a 3.7 UTEP GPA?</p></li><li><p>Weighting the Scores CL x IW iIW iiiiCGRE =</p><p>factorGRE VIW.7GRE Q1.0GRE AW.7GPA (if US)2.5GPA (JNTU, Madras)2.5GPA (other Indian)2.0letters of recommendationvaries </p></li><li><p>Complexities in Recommendationscommeasurate with GREs and GPAcan be a plus or a minusare fundamentally optionalare not expected to have specific points so no ranking factors vary in influenceso the importance weight computation is vital</p></li><li><p>Modeling RecommendationsLeading recommender is a describing you as a =weightscaling factor= warmth score</p></li><li><p>Summary of the ComputationSubtract Baseline and Scale Raw to get Normalized Value:Weight and Sum:Order Normalized Values and apply Ranking Factorsto get Contribution Levels:where r is rank, n is number of scoresRF =2 r - 13 n - 1( 1+ )i</p></li><li><p>Factors in Admissions DecisionsIn the ModelGREsGPAin-major or recent GPAmajorletters of recommendationstatement of purposescholarshipsgroup membershipNot in the Modelundergrad schoolGRE subject test (CS)TOEFLnationality/culturespecific courseworkresearch matchpublicationsetc.</p></li><li><p>Evaluation55 UTEP applicant datafiles accept / rejectcompare applicant featuresaccept/reject decisions51/55 successeswith failuresexplicable</p></li><li><p>Modeling Other Departments applicant data</p></li><li><p>Does the Model Work for Departments?</p><p>Graph3</p><p>75</p><p>85</p><p>94</p><p>99</p><p>56</p><p>77</p><p>92</p><p>96</p><p>106</p><p>104</p><p>109</p><p>124</p><p>-33</p><p>-23</p><p>28</p><p>54</p><p>67</p><p>70</p><p>-134</p><p>-58</p><p>-45</p><p>-4</p><p>-2</p><p>14</p><p>17</p><p>33</p><p>46</p><p>56</p><p>-40</p><p>112</p><p>19</p><p>47</p><p>48</p><p>105</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>154</p><p>83.3333</p><p>86</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>0</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>-183.333</p><p>-83.3333</p><p>16.6667</p><p>50</p><p>50</p><p>66.6667</p><p>83.3333</p><p>116.667</p><p>overall</p><p>NRC Effectiveness</p><p>CGRE</p><p>calibration4</p><p>Oregon Health and Sciences University - OGI CSE2.875avg2</p><p>Georgia Institute of Technology - CC385avg2</p><p>Rice University - CS3.5194avg2</p><p>Rutgers University - CS3.0599avg2</p><p>University of South Carolina - CSE1.4956avg3</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.4877avg3</p><p>Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - CS2.992avg3</p><p>University of Texas, Austin - CS3.8196avg3</p><p>University of Washington - CS4.05106avg3</p><p>Northwestern University - CS2.92104avg4</p><p>University of California, Davis - CS2.58109avg4</p><p>University of Massachusetts, Amherst - CS3.6124avg4</p><p>University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.67-33min2</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.48-23min2</p><p>University of Connecticut - CSE1.5628min2</p><p>Rice University - CS3.5154min2</p><p>University of Virginia - CS3.0567min2soft</p><p>University of Chicago2.8870min2</p><p>University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.03-134min3</p><p>New Jersey Institute of Technology - CS1.77-58min3</p><p>Case Western Reserve University - EECS2.1-45min3</p><p>Arizona State University - CSE2.26-4min3</p><p>University of Oregon2.01-2min3</p><p>Ohio State University - CSE2.3414min3</p><p>Wayne State University1.6717min3</p><p>University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8633min3</p><p>University of Arizona - CS2.9946min3</p><p>North Carolina State University - CS1.8656min3guideline</p><p>University of North Texas - CS1.04-40min4</p><p>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4112min4</p><p>Columbia University - CS4.4719most-above</p><p>North Carolina State University - CS1.8647most-abovecaveats</p><p>New York University - CS3.4748most-above</p><p>University of Wisconsin, Madison3.87105most-above</p><p>Princeton University - CS3.84140most-above</p><p>Stanford University - CS4.6140most-abovecaveat</p><p>Yale University - CS3.44140most-above</p><p>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4154most-above</p><p>Lehigh University - CSE1.6783.3333sma3sum3-avg</p><p>Carnegie Mellon University - HCII4.3886sma3sum3-avg</p><p>Florida State University - CS0.83-25sum2</p><p>University of Alabama, Birmingham - CIS0.91-25sum2</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.48-25sum2</p><p>University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.670sum2</p><p>Oregon State University - EECS1.5725sum2</p><p>University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8625sum2</p><p>University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.0325sum2</p><p>University of South Florida - CSE1.7525sum2</p><p>University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9225sum2</p><p>Illinois Institute of Technology - CS1.58-183.333sum3</p><p>University of Alabama, Huntsville - CS1.39-83.3333sum3</p><p>University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9216.6667sum3</p><p>Ohio State University - CSE2.3450sum3caveats</p><p>University of Kansas EECS1.8350sum3</p><p>University of Maryland - CS3.4566.6667sum3</p><p>Michigan State University - CSE2.7483.3333sum3</p><p>University of Rochester3.51116.667sum3</p><p>calibration4</p><p>overall</p><p>NRC Effectiveness</p><p>CGRE</p></li><li><p>Does the Model Work for Departments?Thus selectivity, as measured by the model, correlates with desirability, somewhat</p><p>Graph1</p><p>75</p><p>85</p><p>94</p><p>99</p><p>56</p><p>77</p><p>92</p><p>96</p><p>106</p><p>104</p><p>109</p><p>124</p><p>-33</p><p>-23</p><p>28</p><p>54</p><p>67</p><p>70</p><p>-134</p><p>-58</p><p>-45</p><p>-4</p><p>-2</p><p>14</p><p>17</p><p>33</p><p>46</p><p>56</p><p>-40</p><p>112</p><p>19</p><p>47</p><p>48</p><p>105</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>154</p><p>83.3333</p><p>86</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>0</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>-183.333</p><p>-83.3333</p><p>16.6667</p><p>50</p><p>50</p><p>66.6667</p><p>83.3333</p><p>116.667</p><p>overall</p><p>trend</p><p>NRC Effectiveness</p><p>CGRE</p><p>calibration4</p><p>Oregon Health and Sciences University - OGI CSE2.875avg2</p><p>Georgia Institute of Technology - CC385avg2</p><p>Rice University - CS3.5194avg2</p><p>Rutgers University - CS3.0599avg2</p><p>University of South Carolina - CSE1.4956avg3</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.4877avg3</p><p>Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - CS2.992avg3</p><p>University of Texas, Austin - CS3.8196avg3</p><p>University of Washington - CS4.05106avg3</p><p>Northwestern University - CS2.92104avg4</p><p>University of California, Davis - CS2.58109avg4</p><p>University of Massachusetts, Amherst - CS3.6124avg4</p><p>University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.67-33min2</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.48-23min2</p><p>University of Connecticut - CSE1.5628min2</p><p>Rice University - CS3.5154min2</p><p>University of Virginia - CS3.0567min2soft</p><p>University of Chicago2.8870min2</p><p>University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.03-134min3</p><p>New Jersey Institute of Technology - CS1.77-58min3</p><p>Case Western Reserve University - EECS2.1-45min3</p><p>Arizona State University - CSE2.26-4min3</p><p>University of Oregon2.01-2min3</p><p>Ohio State University - CSE2.3414min3</p><p>Wayne State University1.6717min3</p><p>University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8633min3</p><p>University of Arizona - CS2.9946min3</p><p>North Carolina State University - CS1.8656min3guideline</p><p>University of North Texas - CS1.04-40min4</p><p>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4112min4</p><p>Columbia University - CS4.4719most-above</p><p>North Carolina State University - CS1.8647most-abovecaveats</p><p>New York University - CS3.4748most-above</p><p>University of Wisconsin, Madison3.87105most-above</p><p>Princeton University - CS3.84140most-above</p><p>Stanford University - CS4.6140most-abovecaveat</p><p>Yale University - CS3.44140most-above</p><p>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4154most-above</p><p>Lehigh University - CSE1.6783.3333sma3sum3-avg</p><p>Carnegie Mellon University - HCII4.3886sma3sum3-avg</p><p>Florida State University - CS0.83-25sum2</p><p>University of Alabama, Birmingham - CIS0.91-25sum2</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.48-25sum2</p><p>University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.670sum2</p><p>Oregon State University - EECS1.5725sum2</p><p>University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8625sum2</p><p>University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.0325sum2</p><p>University of South Florida - CSE1.7525sum2</p><p>University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9225sum2</p><p>Illinois Institute of Technology - CS1.58-183.333sum3</p><p>University of Alabama, Huntsville - CS1.39-83.3333sum3</p><p>University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9216.6667sum3</p><p>Ohio State University - CSE2.3450sum3caveats</p><p>University of Kansas EECS1.8350sum3</p><p>University of Maryland - CS3.4566.6667sum3</p><p>Michigan State University - CSE2.7483.3333sum3</p><p>University of Rochester3.51116.667sum3</p><p>calibration4</p><p>overall</p><p>trend</p><p>NRC Effectiveness</p><p>CGRE</p></li><li><p>The Diversity Behind the NumbersMinimum scores of 550, 600 and 3.5 on the verbal, quantitative, and analytical writing sections, respectively (U. of Delaware)Most students admitted have earned scores in excess of 650 for the Analytical and Quantitative parts (Columbia)Average scores of successful applicants to this program for Fall 2002: GRE: 560 verbal, 770 quantitative (U. of Houston)</p></li><li><p>Averages, Minimums, and Thresholds</p><p>Graph3</p><p>75</p><p>85</p><p>94</p><p>99</p><p>56</p><p>77</p><p>92</p><p>96</p><p>106</p><p>104</p><p>109</p><p>124</p><p>-33</p><p>-23</p><p>28</p><p>54</p><p>67</p><p>70</p><p>-134</p><p>-58</p><p>-45</p><p>-4</p><p>-2</p><p>14</p><p>17</p><p>33</p><p>46</p><p>56</p><p>-40</p><p>112</p><p>19</p><p>47</p><p>48</p><p>105</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>154</p><p>83.3333</p><p>86</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>0</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>-183.333</p><p>-83.3333</p><p>16.6667</p><p>50</p><p>50</p><p>66.6667</p><p>83.3333</p><p>116.667</p><p>overall</p><p>NRC Effectiveness</p><p>CGRE</p><p>calibration4</p><p>Oregon Health and Sciences University - OGI CSE2.875avg2</p><p>Georgia Institute of Technology - CC385avg2</p><p>Rice University - CS3.5194avg2</p><p>Rutgers University - CS3.0599avg2</p><p>University of South Carolina - CSE1.4956avg3</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.4877avg3</p><p>Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - CS2.992avg3</p><p>University of Texas, Austin - CS3.8196avg3</p><p>University of Washington - CS4.05106avg3</p><p>Northwestern University - CS2.92104avg4</p><p>University of California, Davis - CS2.58109avg4</p><p>University of Massachusetts, Amherst - CS3.6124avg4</p><p>University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.67-33min2</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.48-23min2</p><p>University of Connecticut - CSE1.5628min2</p><p>Rice University - CS3.5154min2</p><p>University of Virginia - CS3.0567min2soft</p><p>University of Chicago2.8870min2</p><p>University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.03-134min3</p><p>New Jersey Institute of Technology - CS1.77-58min3</p><p>Case Western Reserve University - EECS2.1-45min3</p><p>Arizona State University - CSE2.26-4min3</p><p>University of Oregon2.01-2min3</p><p>Ohio State University - CSE2.3414min3</p><p>Wayne State University1.6717min3</p><p>University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8633min3</p><p>University of Arizona - CS2.9946min3</p><p>North Carolina State University - CS1.8656min3guideline</p><p>University of North Texas - CS1.04-40min4</p><p>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4112min4</p><p>Columbia University - CS4.4719most-above</p><p>North Carolina State University - CS1.8647most-abovecaveats</p><p>New York University - CS3.4748most-above</p><p>University of Wisconsin, Madison3.87105most-above</p><p>Princeton University - CS3.84140most-above</p><p>Stanford University - CS4.6140most-abovecaveat</p><p>Yale University - CS3.44140most-above</p><p>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4154most-above</p><p>Lehigh University - CSE1.6783.3333sma3sum3-avg</p><p>Carnegie Mellon University - HCII4.3886sma3sum3-avg</p><p>Florida State University - CS0.83-25sum2</p><p>University of Alabama, Birmingham - CIS0.91-25sum2</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.48-25sum2</p><p>University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.670sum2</p><p>Oregon State University - EECS1.5725sum2</p><p>University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8625sum2</p><p>University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.0325sum2</p><p>University of South Florida - CSE1.7525sum2</p><p>University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9225sum2</p><p>Illinois Institute of Technology - CS1.58-183.333sum3</p><p>University of Alabama, Huntsville - CS1.39-83.3333sum3</p><p>University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9216.6667sum3</p><p>Ohio State University - CSE2.3450sum3caveats</p><p>University of Kansas EECS1.8350sum3</p><p>University of Maryland - CS3.4566.6667sum3</p><p>Michigan State University - CSE2.7483.3333sum3</p><p>University of Rochester3.51116.667sum3</p><p>calibration4</p><p>overall</p><p>NRC Effectiveness</p><p>CGRE</p><p>Graph1</p><p>75</p><p>85</p><p>94</p><p>99</p><p>56</p><p>77</p><p>92</p><p>96</p><p>106</p><p>104</p><p>109</p><p>124</p><p>-33</p><p>-23</p><p>28</p><p>54</p><p>67</p><p>70</p><p>-134</p><p>-58</p><p>-45</p><p>-4</p><p>-2</p><p>14</p><p>17</p><p>33</p><p>46</p><p>56</p><p>-40</p><p>112</p><p>19</p><p>47</p><p>48</p><p>105</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>154</p><p>83.3333</p><p>86</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>0</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>-183.333</p><p>-83.3333</p><p>16.6667</p><p>50</p><p>50</p><p>66.6667</p><p>83.3333</p><p>116.667</p><p>overall</p><p>trend</p><p>NRC Effectiveness</p><p>CGRE</p><p>calibration4</p><p>Oregon Health and Sciences University - OGI CSE2.875avg2</p><p>Georgia Institute of Technology - CC385avg2</p><p>Rice University - CS3.5194avg2</p><p>Rutgers University - CS3.0599avg2</p><p>University of South Carolina - CSE1.4956avg3</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.4877avg3</p><p>Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - CS2.992avg3</p><p>University of Texas, Austin - CS3.8196avg3</p><p>University of Washington - CS4.05106avg3</p><p>Northwestern University - CS2.92104avg4</p><p>University of California, Davis - CS2.58109avg4</p><p>University of Massachusetts, Amherst - CS3.6124avg4</p><p>University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.67-33min2</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.48-23min2</p><p>University of Connecticut - CSE1.5628min2</p><p>Rice University - CS3.5154min2</p><p>University of Virginia - CS3.0567min2soft</p><p>University of Chicago2.8870min2</p><p>University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.03-134min3</p><p>New Jersey Institute of Technology - CS1.77-58min3</p><p>Case Western Reserve University - EECS2.1-45min3</p><p>Arizona State University - CSE2.26-4min3</p><p>University of Oregon2.01-2min3</p><p>Ohio State University - CSE2.3414min3</p><p>Wayne State University1.6717min3</p><p>University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8633min3</p><p>University of Arizona - CS2.9946min3</p><p>North Carolina State University - CS1.8656min3guideline</p><p>University of North Texas - CS1.04-40min4</p><p>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4112min4</p><p>Columbia University - CS4.4719most-above</p><p>North Carolina State University - CS1.8647most-abovecaveats</p><p>New York University - CS3.4748most-above</p><p>University of Wisconsin, Madison3.87105most-above</p><p>Princeton University - CS3.84140most-above</p><p>Stanford University - CS4.6140most-abovecaveat</p><p>Yale University - CS3.44140most-above</p><p>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - CS3.4154most-above</p><p>Lehigh University - CSE1.6783.3333sma3sum3-avg</p><p>Carnegie Mellon University - HCII4.3886sma3sum3-avg</p><p>Florida State University - CS0.83-25sum2</p><p>University of Alabama, Birmingham - CIS0.91-25sum2</p><p>University of Florida - CISE2.48-25sum2</p><p>University of Texas, Arlington - CSE1.670sum2</p><p>Oregon State University - EECS1.5725sum2</p><p>University of Illinois, Chicago - CS2.8625sum2</p><p>University of Missouri, Rolla - CS1.0325sum2</p><p>University of South Florida - CSE1.7525sum2</p><p>University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9225sum2</p><p>Illinois Institute of Technology - CS1.58-183.333sum3</p><p>University of Alabama, Huntsville - CS1.39-83.3333sum3</p><p>University of Texas, Dallas - CS1.9216.6667sum3</p><p>Ohio State University - CSE2.3450sum3caveats</p><p>University of Kansas EECS1.8350sum3</p><p>University of Maryland - CS3.4566.6667sum3</p><p>Michigan State University - CSE2.7483.3333sum3</p><p>University of Rochester3.51116.667sum3</p><p>calibration4</p><p>overall</p><p>trend</p><p>NRC Effectiveness</p><p>CGRE</p></li><li><p>Averages, Minimums, and Thresholdsthreshold vs. min: ~30 (0.15 GPA points)==&gt; departments dont take risks (?)avg vs. threshold: ~20 (0.1 GPA points)==&gt; departments dont have much variety (?)</p><p>Graph3</p><p>75</p><p>85</p><p>94</p><p>99</p><p>56</p><p>77</p><p>92</p><p>96</p><p>106</p><p>104</p><p>109</p><p>124</p><p>-33</p><p>-23</p><p>28</p><p>54</p><p>67</p><p>70</p><p>-134</p><p>-58</p><p>-45</p><p>-4</p><p>-2</p><p>14</p><p>17</p><p>33</p><p>46</p><p>56</p><p>-40</p><p>112</p><p>19</p><p>47</p><p>48</p><p>105</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>140</p><p>154</p><p>83.3333</p><p>86</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>-25</p><p>0</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>25</p><p>-183.333</p><p>-83.3333</p><p>16.6667</p><p>50</p><p>50</p><p>66.666...</p></li></ul>

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